Has a Change in Pitch Usage Ascended Kenta Maeda to the Next Level?

Maeda was masterful in his most recent start against Cleveland. Cleveland hitters managed just one hit over six innings and it was a questionable one at that. The speedy Bradley Zimmer hit a slow roller to Luis Arraez at second and was called safe on a bang-bang play. Maeda went on to strike out six while walking only one on just 83 pitches.

When Minnesota traded the flame-throwing Brusdar Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers they knew they were getting a good pitcher in Maeda, but it’s possible the pitching coach Wes Johnson has already unlocked another level. Maeda has always depended on mainly a three-pitch mix including a four-seamer, a slider he threw against right-handed batters, and a split-change used on lefties. While the pitches haven’t changed, their usage has.

If we look back to 2019, Maeda threw his four-seam fastball 33.7% of the time, making it his most used pitch. It was also the pitch that hitters did the most damage to with a .381 wOBA. Fortunately, Maeda also relied heavily on his slider, which is his best pitch (.211 wOBA, 40.7 whiff%), and to a lesser extent on his changeup, featured heavily against lefties and also a very good pitch (36.2 whiff%). Maeda also threw in the occasional curve against lefties and sinker against righties, but mainly relied on the three-pitch mix.

So what’s been different this season?

First off, Maeda’s four seamer has gone from his most used pitch to third (25.1%), falling behind both his slider (37.1%) and changeup (30.5%). On the surface, just throwing his best pitches more often has seemed to help, which certainly makes sense. But it’s also likely that all the sliders and changeups are making the fastball harder to pick up. In the small sample size that has been the 2020 season, the four-seamer has actually gotten the best results as batters have yet to collect a hit off it.

While throwing more of his best pitches has certainly helped, Maeda’s also started using all three pitches against both righties and lefties. In 2019, Maeda threw 766 sliders and 629 of them were thrown to right-handed batters (as the slider runs away from righties) and 506 of his 577 changeups came against lefties (same idea – it runs away). Through two starts, 2020 has been a completely different story. Of his 62 sliders, just 24 have come against right-handed batters while he’s thrown 38 to lefties. He’s continued to throw his changeup more to lefties, but hasn’t been afraid to mix it into righties as well, who have seen 15 of his 51 changeups.

Clearly, giving both righties and lefties an extra pitch that they have to worry about has kept hitters from getting comfortable against Maeda so far. He’s continued to get swings and misses and weak contact as we’d expect, but he’s also been able to get more ground balls. For his career Maeda has averaged just a 42.4% ground ball rate, but in his first two starts he’s gotten 53.8%. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it will be interesting to see if Maeda’s changes in pitch usage continue to lead to more ground balls.

With the Twins already placing starters Jake Odorrizi, Homer Bailey, and Rich Hill on the IL, having Kenta Maeda take it to another level is certainly a welcome development. Minnesota’s off to a great start, but when (if?) the postseason comes around, having an even better, dare I say “ace-like,” version of Maeda toeing the rubber will be epic.

What do you think? Is Kenta Maeda the real deal or I am just overreacting to small sample sizes? Please leave your comments below!

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