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Yes, it's possible the Twins could try to work out a trade with the Red Sox (they traded for Rule 5 pick Scott Diamond in 2010 in order to be able to send him down to Rochester), but I don't see that as very likely in this case. I doubt Boston would be interested in cash considerations or lower level minor leaguers; they're flush with cash and trying to compete. Sure, they exposed Haley to the Rule 5 Draft, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't like to have him back if given the opportunity.
Beyond anything else, the biggest reason I feel it would be wise for the Twins to make room on the roster for Haley is he can provide valuable insurance to the rotation and protection for the bullpen. Here's how I imagine the pitching staff shaking out right now:
Rotation
Ervin Santana
Kyle Gibson
Hector Santiago
Trevor May
Phil Hughes
Bullpen (assuming Glen Perkins starts on the DL)
Brandon Kintzler
Ryan Pressly
J.T. Chargois
Matt Belisle
Taylor Rogers
Justin Haley
Buddy Boshers
Neither Gibson nor Santiago are known for pitching deep into games, and both Hughes (recovering from injuries) and May (transitioning from he bullpen) aren't exactly guys you want to count on to eat innings out of the gate. This staff needs a reliever who can be called upon to throw multiple innings early in games, and I'd rather not see another promising young starter moved to the pen (like May was) or a reliever miscast into a role he's not suited for (like Michael Tonkin was).
Basically what I'm saying is Haley should be this year's version of J.R. Graham, the Twins Rule 5 pick in 2015. It's tough to point to a guy who had a 4.95 ERA and 1.48 WHIP and say he was a valuable member of a pitching staff, but Graham throwing 63 2/3 innings was essential to keeping the rest of the bullpen fresh that season. He even made one emergency spot start.
Over his 38 relief appearances, Graham entered a game prior to the fifth inning 12 times, he pitched in multiple innings 25 times and in 20 of his appearances there was at least a five-run difference in the score (one way or the other) when he entered the game. He was basically the definition of a mop-up man.
Another big thing to remember concerning the Opening Day roster is it can change the next week, the next series, hell, the next day if need be. Bringing Haley north with the big club doesn't necessarily mean committing a roster spot to him for the entire season. If he doesn't pan out, no big loss. You basically rented him from Boston in order to gobble up a bunch of low-leverage innings early in the season and you send him back once you're convinced he's nothing special. No harm done.
Some people may take issue with Jose Berrios not being included on the Opening Day roster. While he has nothing left to prove in the minors in terms of performance -- he's dominated every level -- he does have plenty to work on. At this point I'd rather he work out the kinks in Rochester, where guys like he, Tyler Duffy and Mejia would stay stretched out to serve as rotation insurance. Berrios was the youngest AL pitcher to start a game last season, so it's important to keep in mind he's still way ahead of the curve.
Leaving Tonkin off the roster would mean exposing him to waivers, but I think there's more of a chance that Tonkin would clear waivers than there's a chance the Twins could work out a suitable trade for Haley with Boston. But I do not view Haley and Tonkin as being in direct competition for the same spot. There needs to be a long man behind this rotation, and we saw last season, Tonkin cannot thrive in that role.
Haley making the 25-man roster wouldn't be "blocking" any of the higher upside relievers. Would you rather see a guy like Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi or (insert your favorite of the Twins 46 relief prospects here) getting abused in a mop-up role in the majors or pitching in the back end of the bullpen in the minors? To me, Haley's primary competition is against the guys like Ryan Vogelsong and Nick Tepesch, not any of the traditional one-inning relief guys.
Is Justin Haley one of the Twins' best dozen or so pitchers? No, probably not. Is he an excellent fit to be the last man in the bullpen? Absolutely.
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