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  • Gut Punch! Carlos Correa Signs with the Giants


    Seth Stohs

    Twins fans, we held out hope as long as we could, and we konw that the Twins made a more-than-fair effort, but shortstop Carlos Correa (and his agent Scott Boras) are in an agreement with the San Francisco Giants on a 13-year, $350 million deal, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. 

    Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

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    Twins fans held on to hope, but late on Tuesday night, those hopes were dashed as Jeff Passan announced that free agent shortstop Carlos Correa had agreed to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the Giants. 

    While it is absolutely clear that the Twins were very interested in bringing back Carlos Correa, it is frustrating to have lost out to a big-market team. As you know, the top three markets in the US are New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Philadelphia comes in at number four with Dallas-Ft. Worth at number five. Number six is where we find San Francisco-San Jose. Minneapolis-St. Paul comes in at #14. 

    We know that the Twins put up a "massive" offer to Correa and Boras this week.  The Twins front office clearly wanted to keep the All Star shortstop. But when Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts signed 11-year deals for arguably more than we expected, Scott Boras pounced. According to Jon Heyman, the Twins were at $285 million over 10 years ($28.5 AAV). His AAV (Average Annual Value) on the 13-year deal is just under $27 million, but he gets the extra three years. 

    The Giants thought they had a chance to sign Aaron Judge earlier in the offseason, but he signed with the Yankees. They are believed to be in a two-team race for the services of LHP Carlos Rodon, though most believe he will wind up with the Yankees as well. The Giants clearly wanted to make a splash after seeing the Padres making big signings and needing to make up a lot of ground on the Dodgers. This is their move. 

    So, what is the pivot for the Twins?

    First, it is theoretically possible that the Twins could sign both SS Dansby Swanson and Rodon for about $350 million. I don't see it. But the Twins will certainly pivot to the former Braves shortstop as their fallback. How much will Swanson want? Rumors are all over the place. It could be anywhere from six years and $140 million to eight years and $200 million. 

    However, Swanson is coming off of a great season with Atlanta. The Vanderbilt product has been on a lot of winning teams and may bring many of the same traits that Correa brought to the Twins. So while it is disappointing to not sign Correa, the Twins can salvage the offseason by showing fans they're serious and spending the money they were planning to spend on Correa. 

    The other fallback plan, of course, is using Kyle Farmer at shortstop. The Twins acquired him after the season for RHP Casey Legumina. And then we await the return of Royce Lewis or the arrival of Brooks Lee, or both. 

    We will have much more analysis on the news that Carlos Correa will be signing with the Giants coming, but share your initial thoughts here. 

     

     

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    41 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

    My question is why didn't we offer this same package last year? If we had offered him 10/285 last year before the start of the season I think he takes it, don't you? Or even 8/250! He flat out came to them last year looking for a place to go. Why was there not a greater effort to go long term at this time?

    I had the same thought, but remember, he just switched to Boras as his agent.  So Boras would only get half of a long-term contract commission.  So Boras was incentivized to get Correa to sign a one-year deal.

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    1 hour ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

    I had the same thought, but remember, he just switched to Boras as his agent.  So Boras would only get half of a long-term contract commission.  So Boras was incentivized to get Correa to sign a one-year deal.

    Always look for the hidden incentives. Yes!  On the other hand I continue to believe Boras is an ethical guy, and he tries to compartmentalize his own interests versus his clients. As evidence: he advised Correa to accept the one-year contract for $35.1M (with a $70.2M insurance policy on top of it) and try again. Adding this Giants contract to what Carlos earned via this advice, does anyone believe Boras convinced him to turn down $385.1M last off-season? So then, the advice was sound and Correa reaped the benefit versus whatever sub-$300M offer was probably on the table this time last year.  Boras happens to reap the agent benefits, as he should.

    Boras IMO is unexcelled at his job, and clients flock to him because of that.

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    3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    1) I'd be excited to watch him alongside some of the younger players. In 10 years the hope would be that a $27M AAV would look and feel like the deal the Twins have with Buxton. 

    2) No. MN state tax would have him at roughly 10% I believe, and when you factor in the higher MN AAV (our big bragging point) the gap between the deals doesn't really budge; he makes $50M more in SF rather than $65.

    3) Giving Jose Miranda a Wander Franco deal is a more prudent financial investment? Yeesh.

    4) So make the team worse in the short term (i.e. rebuild) while they've got young positional talent or vets on team friendly deals everywhere? Hard pass. 

    5) Trade for the immature star on a 14 year $340M deal because Correa at 13/$350 is so unpalatable? 

    Selected reading much?

    1) I think you are in the minority if you think the Twins should have paid the same contract to Correa (assuming he would take it from the Twins, which I doubt;  we would likely have to pay even MORE.)

    2) At current tax rates, Correa will pay an extra $12.25M in California taxes on that contract.  And California is threatening to raise the top individual rate to 27%, which would make the MN offer higher net dollars.  Even at the current rates, the Twins AAV was $2.5M per year higher, but of course we were not paying him when he is 41.

    3) I said the Twins should consider "candidates" for extensions.  You immediately jumped to the second highest such early extension in history, Franco.  We don't have a Franco on the roster, so that is inapplicable.

    4)  Correa is projected at about 4-5 WAR.  The Twins were under .500 WITH him on the roster.  We are not "on the brink" of contention unless a ton of young players blossom and the injury bug leaves town.  None of that is impacted on whether we have Correa or Swanson or Farmer or whomever as SS in any meaningful way.  We are many, many pieces from a complete high-level team.

    5)  Again, please read what I wrote.  I would only consider that for the Twins if the Padres ate a big portion of the contract.  But if we can get Tatis at a third of what we would have paid Correa, sign me us, even if he plays LF instead of SS in the future.

     

     

     

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    8 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

    Selected reading much?

    1) I think you are in the minority if you think the Twins should have paid the same contract to Correa (assuming he would take it from the Twins, which I doubt;  we would likely have to pay even MORE.)

    2) At current tax rates, Correa will pay an extra $12.25M in California taxes on that contract.  And California is threatening to raise the top individual rate to 27%, which would make the MN offer higher net dollars.  Even at the current rates, the Twins AAV was $2.5M per year higher, but of course we were not paying him when he is 41.

    3) I said the Twins should consider "candidates" for extensions.  You immediately jumped to the second highest such early extension in history, Franco.  We don't have a Franco on the roster, so that is inapplicable.

    4)  Correa is projected at about 4-5 WAR.  The Twins were under .500 WITH him on the roster.  We are not "on the brink" of contention unless a ton of young players blossom and the injury bug leaves town.  None of that is impacted on whether we have Correa or Swanson or Farmer or whomever as SS in any meaningful way.  We are many, many pieces from a complete high-level team.

    5)  Again, please read what I wrote.  I would only consider that for the Twins if the Padres ate a big portion of the contract.  But if we can get Tatis at a third of what we would have paid Correa, sign me us, even if he plays LF instead of SS in the future.

     

     

     

    Why is SD paying most of Tatis' contract? Why would you want him if he's not good enough to carry the team (which is your argument for not signing CC)? I'm not sure I understand any of your post. Also, ballplayers pay pro-rated taxes based on where their games are played, so only about 60% (as he'll have to play SD and LAD) of his money is taxed at CA rates. But I doubt that matters much to him.

    Name a player they Twins should extend like ATL did, please. 

    I'd bet the VAST majority of fans wanted CC signed at that price. VAST. They want winning, exciting, players.

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    5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    You don't think Swanson is getting ten years? He's not close to the player the other three are. Why would you sign two cheap starters? They have plenty of back end starters.

    A) I don't think Swanson gets 10 years and he gets about $18 million, not $27.

    B) Wacha could be had for $10 million, he'd be an upgrade over Archer or Bundy. I'm all in favor of offering Rodon an extended contract but they haven't paid pitchers beyond 3 years, doubt Rodon changes that philosophy

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    Just now, Coach Wheels said:

    A) I don't think Swanson gets 10 years and he gets about $18 million, not $27.

    B) Wacha could be had for $10 million, he'd be an upgrade over Archer or Bundy. I'm all in favor of offering Rodon an extended contract but they haven't paid pitchers beyond 3 years, doubt Rodon changes that philosophy

    Archer and Bundy aren't on this roster. 

    If you can get Swanson for 5 years and 90 million, he'd already be signed in ATL or elsewhere. Even 7 years 126. 

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