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  • Guardians 7, Twins 6: Another Bullpen Meltdown in Extra Innings Loss


    Sherry Cerny

    Another bullpen implosion in extra innings gives Twins their worst loss of the season. 

     

    Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today

    Box Score
    SP: Dylan Bundy: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (83 pitches, 58 strikes (70%))
    Home Runs:  Alex Kirilloff (1), Gio Urshela (7). Max Kepler (7)
    Top 3 WPA: Alex Kirilloff (.20), Carlos Correa (.14), Gio Urshela (.13), 
    Bottom 3 WPA: Jharel Cotton (-.72), Emilio Pagan (-.19), Ryan Jeffers (-.19)
    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    image.png.70ead101339daf8292f40dd1d58c8cdc.png

    Bundy, who had a rough first inning against the Guardians calmed down, looking sharper and more controlled, gave another four innings to the team. The Guardians drove up his pitch count and tried to wear him down, but Bundy battled through the innings not imploding and keeping the runs at three. The defense stayed strong behind him through the five innings not allowing any more runs on the board. 

    The defense was different with both Jorge Polanco at shortstop and Luis Arraez at second base filling in for Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who were both out of the starting lineup. After Bundy loaded up the bases with singles and no outs in the first frame, Franmil Reyes got out on a fielder’s choice to Polanco, who tossed the ball to Arraez getting out Jose Ramirez. Arraez attempted to throw the ball to first for a double play but an errant throw allowed Amed Rosario to score. 

    A sloppy first inning for the Twins defensively allowed the Guardians a two-run lead early. The Twins seemed to struggle offensively as much as they were defensively early in the game. They were getting hits and getting on base but couldn’t capitalize with runs when it mattered. 

    The Guardians got an early lead in the game thanks to the help of Steven Kwan who stole his fifth base with Amed Rosario at the plate. Rosario poked a ball to right field over Max Kepler's head which allowed Kwan to advance to third. Kwan scored on a sacrifice fly from Josh Naylor to give Cleveland a 3-0 lead. 

    As slow as the offense started for the Twins, the defense had some notable plays that saved the bottom of innings and more runs from scoring. Gilberto Celestino chased down a fly ball to the warning track in center field off the bat of Andres Gimenez. Jose Miranda dove to catch a line drive hit by Jose Ramirez and tagged out Reyes who took a large lead off first and got tagged trying to scramble back. The out closed out the inning leaving players stranded for the Guardians. 

    In true Twins fashion, the fun started late in the game when Alex Kirilloff hit a heater off of Quantrill, his first home run of the season. It was a two-run shot in the top of the sixth. Gio Urshela followed with a solo home run to tie the game! Quantrill was now under threat of his first loss. Quantrill had not lost a game against the Twins at Progressive Field. 

    Jhoan Duran held the Guardians in the eighth and ninth innings and just like that the Twins were in another extra-inning game. Byron Buxton, who came on to pinch-hit in the eighth inning, He gave the fans a scare when he took off toward third base on a foul ball off the bat of Luis Arraez. Richie Palacios made a great catch against the netting. Buxton got up and appeared fine and Twins Territory sighed a breath of relief (I'm sure).  

    Carlos Correa, who came into to pinch hit for Jose Miranda in the 10th inning, took advantage of having the first part of the evening off and through the reluctant loud “Boos” of the stadium, worked up a full count before poking a ball into right, scoring Buxton giving the Twins their first lead of the night and landing on first. 

    The Twins piled on in the tenth with a home run from Max Kepler bringing the lead 6-3 before ending the inning. 

    The Twins went into the bottom of the tenth inning with a three-run lead, but again, the bullpen imploded, Emilio Pagan came on to start the inning, and he got the first batter that he faced out. But, he issued a walk and a run-scoring single to Amed Rosario. Jharel Cotton was summoned, and he got Jose Ramirez on a pop out to center. Unfortunately after a passed ball, the Guardians got within one run of a tie. Unfortunately, after working Josh Naylor with fastballs up in the zone, Cotton served up a fastball down in the zone, and Naylor hit a bomb to left field for a two-run, walk-off homer. Another very frustrating end to looked like a solid win and just like that the Twins are in the losing bracket of extra-innings going 1-and-4 for the season.

    What’s Next? 

    The Twins finish out the five-game series with a chance to take the series win with the Guardians tomorrow afternoon.  Pitching matchups for the series include: 

    Postgame Interview 

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    image.png.5f58ee7a7809da4d20799e562ae871d0.png

     

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    5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Those of you who crowed about "roster management" when Falvine traded Rogers don't get to complain about the bullpen now.

     

    Of Course I can.

    Trading Rogers doesn't mean you can't replace Rogers. Maybe the replacement isn't as good but just cause you trade Rogers... it doesn't mean you are forced to roster crap in his place.  

    Also... I think it's fair to point out that Pagan can also be replaced and this is perhaps where the Twins are really failing at the moment because the Paddack trade was months ago. 

     

     

     

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    50 minutes ago, bighat said:

    Totally agree. What's he supposed to do? He can't run Ryan out there every day followed by Jax for 2 innings and Duran for 2 innings. MLB teams have to use all of the arms in their bullpen. Those arms have to be capable of getting MLB players out! You don't pay Pagan 2 million dollars to warm the bench out there, he's supposed to be able to get the job done, and if he can't the guy has to be cut from the team. Rocco can't cut guys from the team, nor can he switch out the tools from his tool box.

    Rocco has put the ball in the FO's court. I'm not saying he's playing 5-D chess or anything like that, but he is taking a very direct approach. Let's hope last night was the last we saw of Duran, the guy's nothing but toxic for this team.


    Let'shope last night was the last we saw of Duran, the guy's nothing but toxic for this team.”

    Please tell me that’s a brain fart…

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    Time to make some deals.  This BP is imploding before our eyes on a night by night and consistent basis.  Rocco stuck with Colome for far too long last year and this year it's Duffey and Pagan who are the main culprits.  I just don't understand throwing Duran for two innings of a tie game.  Good managers have clearly defined roles for their BP.  Rocco has always been LOST when it comes to BP's.  He wouldn't use Taylor Rogers as his primary closer and the first thing the Padres do after they get him is make him their closer.  I rest my case.

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    Part of the reason for the bullpen meltdowns is the poor use of the starters. Once again Rocco pulled Bundy after just 5 innings. Doesn't seem to matter how effective he was or how many pitches he's thrown Rocco didn't do himself or the team or the fans any favors by not trying to get another inning out of Bundy. He was only at 83 pitches and could have gone another inning. Then use Jax and Duran and save your only available lefty, Thielbar for a late inning lefty lefty matchup if needed. When you only have two lefty pitchers available to you, using Moran for 2 innings the day before was a mistake if you aren't going to keep Thielbar for situational relief the next day. Using him in the 6th inning was a huge mistake. Why was Bundy able to go 107 pitches in Arizona but only 60 and 83 pitches in his last 2 starts. Again, poor use of your starter which overtaxes your bullpen. Let's call Pagan Colome 2.0 and let's call Rocco's brain a Number 2 for using Pagan like Colome. Some guys never learn. As far as the FO is concerned when it comes to the bullpen, they have gotten what they asked for or should I say what they have acquired. Crap.

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    Dear Rocco,

    I'm still in your corner but I can't help you here.

    I imagine that there are times when a manager needs to show a struggling player that you still have confidence in them.

    However... Pagan had blown 3 games against Cleveland in the span of 8 days. Make that 4 over the span of 9 after last night. How is his confidence now? Not good and that extends to his team mates and yes the fans. 

    If anybody else in the bullpen would have blown that lead in extras... you'd have a leg to stand on, because the blame could be shouldered by the bullpen as a whole instead of focused on the one that you have exposed by allowing him to drop 4 games in a short period of time against the team that is closest to you in the standings.  

    Rocco... you have to wear this one. Tomorrow/Today is another day. Go get em! 

    Sincerely,

     

    Riverbrian

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    You can argue that Baldelli should’ve sent Bundy out for a third time against Naylor, Reyes, and Giménez in a tied game, while holding back Thielbar in case he was needed in a hypothetical tenth inning.

    But let’s not pretend that’s not a take that benefits from hindsight.

    The only fair way to judge a decision is based on the information and alternatives available at the time.

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    1 hour ago, Jeff D. said:

    A sad loss for the Twins! This one is on Baldelli. He has a habit (and it is a habit), of forcing his analytic will into game situations, when wisdom and insight may serve better. Pagan is his latest habit. I used to be Duffey. It ended in a loss when a win was all but assured. Jeffers played a crucial role with his passed ball. He is just not a great catcher to have on a team. He should have caught that ball. But, that is the game.....we lost. Gotta win tomorrow! Go Twins!

    Twins Geezer.... out!

     

    Crucial role with passed ball in loss, not crucial.  It wasn't the tying run, it wasn't the tying run.  Sanchez is not a great catcher, Jeffers is better.  Yes we can agree he should have caught the ball.  Crucial in these Twins losses are Pagan throwing up all over himself and this team blowing very easy winnable games vs these Guardians.  Crucial key moments in a game to capitalize on opportunities and Twins don't do it.  Don't get me started on everyone loving Arraez for his bat, but in the 1st on hit ball that isn't a double play ball he throws it into camera well to gift a another run.  He is a hitter but his fielding other than 1st isn't good.  6-5 with 2 outs and 2 strikes a fastball with no movement right down broadway for walk off homer.  Fastball up in zone was un-hittable.  That was crucial

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    Thornburg and Moran were fresher.

    Before you replace Pagan in the bullpen... you have to replace the guys who the manager feels is worse than the guy who has blown 3 games against your closest competitor in a short period of time. 

    Silver lining? I'll give it a shot. The front office has to know that the bullpen is beyond priority now. That might be a good thing. 

     

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    What an adventure in venting this thread has been.  Unfortunately it is justified.  When Pagan came in my response was - NO! But who do you bring in.  We used our only good RP already in the game and we have a mystery man wearing Thornburg jerseys but obviously not to be used under any circumstances. 

    I still think we should bring up healthy minor league arms and use them in the BP.  Anything but another Pagan meltdown. 

    I know we are not the only team struggling with BP , but teams seem to figure it out.  How are the Yankees doing it?  These are not names we all knew except for Chapman and he is out with an injury.  

    It is desperate times and as much as everyone thinks third time through the lineup is bad, we need SP to go 7 - 9 (a complete game - never). 

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    Buxton scores; I'm already thinking of the bottom of the 10th.  "We need more runs; there's no way we can hold Cleveland with our bullpen."  Then Kepler hits the home run and I'm really excited.  "I wonder who Rocco's gonna throw to get three outs.  Certainly not Pagan".  Then sure enough, there is Pagan, standing on the mound with his silly Mohawk sticking out from the bottom of his cap and I'm yelling at the TV, just like someone on this post says.  Walk, passed ball, single, run, and there on the TV is Jharel Cotton warming in the bullpen and I realize there is nothing to do but watch the ravaging.  No way Cleveland isn't gonna win this game.  Falvey and Levine must be watching the same game as I am, or is there an alternative universe they exist in?  Read major league trade rumors and our old friend Sergio was picked up by the Blue Jays, hate that idea, but neither I nor the team can continue to do this.  The offense has got to be about ready to quit and I can only imagine what Correa is saying about signing with this group.  Even Dick Bremer got dangerously close to being negative after the game.

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    25 minutes ago, ChermesZ said:

    Solution.

     

    DFA Pagan and Cotton

    Sands and Winder fill reliever roles.  Ober possibly when he gets back.  
     

     

    Cole Sands with his 8.82 ERA and revolutionary WHIP? 

    Look, the FO has to do something to address the bullpen, or the Twins risk throwing away a season where they brought in Correa and have the horses to compete. Injuries and ineffectiveness have decimated the bullpen and they need to go get some reinforcements, because there really aren't any serious options in AAA right now. (We have 6 relievers in the IL right now. Ugh.) The timing is tough, because you're probably going to have to overpay to pry someone quality loose...but the Twins have enough prospect capital to make it happen without mortgaging the future.

    Bored with any comment that talks about Rocco and "spreadsheets" or that he manages like a computer etc. You sound like Joe Morgan yelling about how Billy Beane writing Moneyball ruined the game.

    We just don't have enough options in the bullpen we can trust right now. The options last night for the 10th were Pagan (who blew it, again), Cotton (who blew it), Duffey (who seems to have traumatized a lot of this board), or Thornburg (who hasn't had chances to blow it yet). I don't love any of those options right now. Cotton & Pagan both have the same problem: they're too wild, and when they can't hit their spots and start walking guys they'll end up throwing a "get over" pitch to get a strike and get lit up. Both have the stuff to be quality, but aren't getting it done. (Moran has similar risks, but also has options so they can bounce him up and down as he tries to get it under control) Thornburg doesn't hunt Ks, making him a less optimal choice to come in with a runner(s) on base. I'm less afraid of Duffey than most, and probably would have gone with him over Pagan (who seems to be a mess right now) but him vs Cotton might have been a coin flip. But not having better options is more and more of a problem.

    I'm generally good with the strategy of churning relievers until find a combination that works for you, but the injuries are making that strategy less viable. Time to pivot, time to get someone real in rather than digging off the scrap heap.

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    I actually went to bed last night feeling decent after the loss.  Twins clearly are the better team.  Guardians have a lot of fight that’s for sure, but I’d think Falvey and Levine saw this and know it’s time to get bullpen help.  
     

    I usually consider myself pretty negative, but assuming the team is mentally ok after that, I think they’ll be fine.

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    What was Griffin Jax’s #s last year?  Somewhat similar to sands.

    Not yelling at the computer because of analytics changes, just begging for a change from what has caused 4 of the last losses.  We cannot keep doing the same thing and expecting the same result…that’s insanity.

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    2 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

    Pitcher A — 6.5 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 7.4 SO/9

    Pitcher B — 7.5 H/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.0 BB/9, 12.1 SO/9

    Pitcher C — 9.5 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.0 SO/9

    Pitcher D — 7.3 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 7.3 SO/9

    You’re Rocco Baldeli, who do you go to with a three run lead in the 10th?

    People need to stop pretending like there was an obviously better alternative. The problem is that they are all bad. That includes Cotton, whose underlying numbers are really not discernibly better than Pagán’s, he’s just been luckier so people have fooled themselves into thinking he’s better.

    Look at the options above and tell me who you would’ve chosen.

    I agree he didn’t have much choice, and that’s the most maddening thing about it. But, given Pagan’s most recent outings, I’d have gone with one of the other bad choices just because of that. It couldn’t be worse, and just maybe a bit better

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    Not much more to add. We've all been seeing this play out with our own eyes. Nobody is going to convince me that Pagan belongs on this roster even one more day. Regardless of what they do afterwards, an immediate DFA makes this team better. And don't get me started on the decision making process of Rocco and the FO regarding the bullpen. I'm just depressed.

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    Truth is Baldelli is a horrible manager.  He has no in game managing skills.  Common sense would tell you not to send out pagan to start the inning after all the blowups he's had against Cleveland.  The guardians must have been salavating when they saw him enter the game again.  Maybe laughing.  Yes Baldelli didn't have a ton of choices but ANYONE other than pagan to start the inning.  And the FO doing pretty much nothing all year to try to improve the bullpen.  Had pagan and the bullpen done their job the Twins would be 8 in front instead of 2.  So many lost opportunities.  Remember these games when the playoffs may be missed this fall due to Baldellis stubbornness and his loyalty to Pagan at the expense of the rest of the team.

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    Looking at the bullpen chart man Pãgan has been used a lot lately. 3 out of the last 4 games. Then as someone said what about Duffey (ha ha, but seriously)? Well he had been used 2 out of the last 3 days. The only rested reliever? T Thornburg. As was stated 6 relievers on the IL. Mcgill, Coulumbe or Alcala would've been helpful last night. It is surprising that with a staff devoid of proven workhorses and a beat up pen that was questionable to begin with, that this team is in first place. Obviously we have the division to thank for that. Considering the division they may be willing to wait to the deadline to do anything about it. That's means we could be in store for more of the same. Mcgill, I think, is the only reliever close to returning. He did look good to me, but is hardly proven. A common theme, good looking stuff, questionable command.

    The FO has got to be feeling the heat. I'm thinking they may actually be forced to pull the trigger on a deal early. 

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    8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

    Truth is Baldelli is a horrible manager.  He has no in game managing skills.  Common sense would tell you not to send out pagan to start the inning after all the blowups he's had against Cleveland.  The guardians must have been salavating when they saw him enter the game again.  Maybe laughing.  Yes Baldelli didn't have a ton of choices but ANYONE other than pagan to start the inning.  And the FO doing pretty much nothing all year to try to improve the bullpen.  Had pagan and the bullpen done their job the Twins would be 8 in front instead of 2.  So many lost opportunities.  Remember these games when the playoffs may be missed this fall due to Baldellis stubbornness and his loyalty to Pagan at the expense of the rest of the team.

    Since you posted the same thing after the last meltdown would it be 9 games in front now? 

     

    Edit:I do agree with you they should be further ahead with even competent relieving. 8 blown games between Duffey and Pãgan. Just a 75% success rate and they are up 8 as you stated. Thank you Central Division! 

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    8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    The bullpen implosion was a disaster - unfortunately, not that unexpected of this club. I mean, we are kinda getting used to it, right?  Pagan is, like, 9/15 in save situations.  The thread will focus on this I’m sure.

    However, the little things from the position players once again bit this team in the rear.  Arraez’s throwing error in the first was unnecessary and led to a run.  Celestino not picking up the 3rd base coach and stopping at second likely cost the Twins another run. That’s a net two runs, proving costly. No need to even mention the passed ball. We need to clean up these little things because they are having a big impact. Our relief corp isn’t strong enough to overcome these mental mistakes in the field, at the plate, and on the base paths. 

    I agree with you 100%.  This team doesn't play as fundamentally sound as the teams of a few years ago. Think about T.K. or Gardy and how much they stressed the fundamentals of the game. Ever since 2019 the Bomba year it seems like this team has gone away from playing any kind of "small" ball that stresses fundamentals, like bunting, Hit an runs, steals, and some of the defensive "mental" mistakes probably give the other team a little chuckle. And please Rocco, send Pagan on vacation or something when we play Cleveland. They sure have his number!

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    8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    The bullpen implosion was a disaster - unfortunately, not that unexpected of this club. I mean, we are kinda getting used to it, right?  Pagan is, like, 9/15 in save situations.  The thread will focus on this I’m sure.

    However, the little things from the position players once again bit this team in the rear.  Arraez’s throwing error in the first was unnecessary and led to a run.  Celestino not picking up the 3rd base coach and stopping at second likely cost the Twins another run. That’s a net two runs, proving costly. No need to even mention the passed ball. We need to clean up these little things because they are having a big impact. Our relief corp isn’t strong enough to overcome these mental mistakes in the field, at the plate, and on the base paths. 

    You are absolutely right. The Twins overcame themselves to put themselves in position to win it in the 10th. It's still a team performance in the end. 

    Well it's a team performance with Pagan a part of that team. ?

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    2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    Of Course I can.

    Trading Rogers doesn't mean you can't replace Rogers. Maybe the replacement isn't as good but just cause you trade Rogers... it doesn't mean you are forced to roster crap in his place.  

    Also... I think it's fair to point out that Pagan can also be replaced and this is perhaps where the Twins are really failing at the moment because the Paddack trade was months ago.

     

     

     

    Nope. Relievers the quality of Rogers don't just magically reappear after you dump them.

    "Just replace him" is ... poorly thought out. How? With who? The half dozen or more waiver wire wonders we churn through every year? That's how we got where we are.

    No, good bullpens aren't accidents, they don't result from "just throw enough **** against the wall and it'll work itself out." Good Relievers aren't "fungible," they aren't "the easiest thing to find at the deadline," and they aren't "unpredictable."

    I read over and over how smart Falvine were. Well, own it.

     

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