Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

In light of John's recent suggestion, I went ahead and compiled the results of the 2013 free agent pitching market. I excluded pitchers that ended up as relievers, and I excluded pitchers such as baseball's version of Gandolf the Gray (Jamie Moyer), who did not sign.

The pitchers' results have been surprisingly better than I thought they'd be, but I'm not certain that we at Twins Daily would have gotten them right. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

I'm too lazy to look up all of the suggestions from last winter, but the names I remember being tossed around were either unrealistic (Grienke, Sanchez, etc) or have horribly performed (Jackson, Haren, Marcum). Some of the multi-year deals obviously need to be vetted in terms of their length; I suspect guys like Lohse and Greinke will not look so good at the end of their contracts.

One interesting observation is that the Cubs took three gambles in the FA pitching market. One (Scott Feldman) has worked out very well for them. One (Scott Baker) flushed $5.5M down the toilet. One (Carlos Villanueva) may also net them a prospect. The Cubs are a large market team, so they essentially used $15M this offseason to buy some prospects in what is a lost year for them. Given their fan base will show up no matter how poor a product they put on the field, this isn't a bad strategy for the lovable losers.

The Good:

Zack Greinke: 8-2 3.36 ERA in 91 innings. Lost time due to an injury sustained in a fight.

Jake Peavy: 7-4 4.19 ERA in 73 innings. Also spent time on the DL. Peripherals better than Greinke so far.

Anibal Sanchez: 7-7 2.85 ERA in 98 innings. Though the record hasn’t indicated it, he has pitched like an ace striking out more than 10 per 9 innings and walking fewer than 3 per nine innings.

Hiroki Kuroda: 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 125 innings. Has pitched quite well for the $15M contract the Yankees gave him, though his K rate is significantly lower than the others; he may regress.

Kyle Lohse: 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA for the Brewers. Peripherals don’t look too good, but he’s gotten the results thus far and justified his 3 yr./$33M contract.

Ervin Santana: 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Royals in 130 innings. Has to date justified his 1 yr./$13M contract and will likely be able to parlay that into a multiyear deal this offseason.

Francisco Liriano: 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 81 innings for the Pirates. He signed a $1M deal with a second year option that will likely be picked up. He has been by far the best value deal of the class as he’s pitched like an ace. He turned down an offer from the Twins, and I’d say there’s a good chance he would not have pitched this well had he returned.

Scott Feldman: 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Cubs were able to flip him and his 1 yr./$6M contract for prospects.

Bartolo Colon: 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA for the A’s. Great value for $3M.

The mediocre:

Ryan Dempster: 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 110 innings for the Redsox. He’s been just better than league average, and not quite justifying the 2 year $26.5M contract.

Jeremy Guthrie: 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 126 innings for the Royals. I hate to see how this will turn out in years 2 and 3 of his $25M contract.

Joe Saunders: 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 120 innings. Great value from the $6.5M contract he got this offseason.

Carlos Villanueva: 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 84 innings for the Cubs. Signed a 2/$10M contract and has earned his keep.

Erik Bedard: 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings for the Astros. Could possibly be flipped for a prospect.

Kevin Correia: I don’t think I need to summarize this one. He’s earned his contract, though not much more.

Jason Marquis: 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Probably the best of the mediocre group and cheap at 3M. I somehow doubt he was going back to MN.

Roberto Hernandez: The player formerly known as Carmona is 5-10 with a 4.9 ERA for the Rays. Only cost $3.25M.

The Bad:

Edwin Jackson: 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 100 innings. He has not lived up to his potential.

Brandon McCarthy: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in only 66 innings. He was cheap at 2/$16.5M, but has not pitched nearly enough, nor well enough to justify the contract.

Dan Haren: 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA for the Nationals. Has not justified his 1/$13 Mcontract.

Shaun Marcum: 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA for the Mets. At least only cost them $4M.

Joe Blanton: 2-12 with a 5.53 ERA for the Angels. Not worth the 2/$15M contract he signed.

Roy Oswalt: 0-4 with a 7.64 ERA in only 17 innings for the Rockies. He has pitched well in AA.

Freddy Garcia: 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA for Baltimore. At least he was cheap.

Jeff Francis: 2-5 with a 6.58 ERA for the Rockies. Cost $1.5M.

Chien-Ming Wang: 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA for the Jays in only 24 innings. Singed for $.5M.

Jonathan Sanchez: 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA for the Pirates.

The ugly:

Colby Lewis: Has been paid $2M to not pitch.

Chris Young: He did not sign a major league deal, so this really didn’t not hurt his team. He has not pitched well in AAA thus far.

Scott Baker: I want get paid $5.5M to never set foot on a mound.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors.

Carlos Zambrano: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Has pitched well in the minors.

Aaron Cook: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL.

Kip Wells: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL.

Breakdown:

Good: 9 players

Mediocre: 8 players

Bad: 10 players

Ugly: 7 players

Since Ryan was clearly looking for shorter term deals, we can look back to see who were the best signings.

The best contracts overall were for Liriano (who turned down an offer to return), Feldman, and Colon. Both signed short term contracts and have vastly outperformed them. We all know the enigma that is Liriano, so it doesn't bear repeating. There is significant question whether he would have pitched this well in Minnesota.

Many of the mediocre contracts would have played out similarly to Kevin Correia. None of these guys would be major difference-makers, but most of them would be upgrades to our current rotation.

Approximately 50% of the players that signed have performed well enough to earn their contracts. Given that a number of the good players, such as Sanchez, Grienke, Liriano, and Lohse weren't likely to come here due to either a large contract or problematic history, Ryan's odds of succeeding were less than that. The Twins would likely be in different shape had they signed Feldman, Colon, and Kuroda this offseason. These were not names that many were arguing for, and at 15M, Kuroda would have sucked up the entire budget. As a result, I'm not sure the posters at Twins Daily would have assembled a much better rotation than what Ryan did, and it most certainly would have cost more.