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  • Game Recap: Twins 10, Cleveland 2


    Andrew Thares

    Byron Buxton had a career day as part of the Twins offensive explosion. After some offensive woes, the Twins gave us a glimpse of the 2019 Twins offense. The question is, will this game be the launchpad for the season, or is it just a random one game explosion?

    Image courtesy of © Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Happ: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

    Home Runs: Buxton (8), Donaldson (2), Polanco (1), Astudillo (2), Garver 2 (4)

    Top 3 WPA: Buxton .137, Polanco .095, Happ .089

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

    ccs-8747-0-67942800-1619651104.png

    The Twins home run derby

    Entering Wednesday’s ballgame, the Twins lineup had produced just 10 first inning runs in 22 ballgames, which was tied for 21st in Major League Baseball. That trend of first inning futility did not carry over into this game, as the Twins had already scored four runs just four batters into the ballgame. It all got started with this Byron Buxton opposite field home run.

    https://twitter.com/JayCat11/status/1387455447494451207

    Josh Donaldson followed that up with a blast of his own in the very next at-bat. This one, however, was a no-doubter off the bat with an exit velocity of 106.3 MPH and carried 423 feet to left.

    https://twitter.com/hr_mlb/status/1387457519648395270

    Then, after a Nelson Cruz walk, it was Jorge Polanco’s turn to join the home run bigrade. Like Donaldson’s home run, Polanco’s home run also left the bat at 106.3 MPH, but this one traveled 426 feet to left-center field, giving the Twins a quick four run lead.

    https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1387458251931930629

    The Twins early scoring did not stop in the first. In the top of the second, the Twins added a couple more runs to further extend their lead. Alex Kirilloff got things started with a one out single, and then advanced to second on a wild pitch during Byron Buxton’s at-bat that ended with a ground ball between second base and short, that turned into a double thanks to Buxton’s speed and hustle out of the box.

    Unfortunately, Kirilloff was unable to score after he misread the groundball and went back to second, before advancing to third. That would be a moot point two batters later, when Nelson Cruz delivered this two-run single.

    https://twitter.com/TwinsTakes_com/status/1387473827542671361

    In the third, it was Willians Astudillo’s turn to join the party, after he hit the Twins fourth home run of the game.

    https://twitter.com/MLBHRVideos/status/1387472146427953160

    Not to be left out, Mitch Garver went deep in the fifth, giving the Twins an 8 to 1 lead on their fifth home run of the ballgame.

    https://twitter.com/hr_mlb/status/1387479560195821573

    A couple innings later, it was Garver again, this time a two-run shot to get the Twins

    to double-digits on their sixth home run of the game.

    https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1387489332500393984

    J.A. Happ builds off great start last time out

    After a gem of a start last Firday, where J.A. Happ didn’t give up a hit until the 8th inning, he came back out Wednesday and gave the Twins another strong outing, giving up just two runs across seven innings of work. He did give up a number of deep flyballs, but with the exception of a Amed Rosario home run, they all came up short as warning track flyballs.

    A lot of Twins fans grumbled at the J.A. Happ signing when it happened this winter, but four starts in and it appears to be a great move for starting rotation depth. In total, Happ now has a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings of work and has yet to give up more than two runs in any of his starts.

    Byron Buxton’s career day

    Prior to today, Bryon Buxton had only ever had just one four-hit game, which came back in 2017 in Toronto when Buxton blasted three home runs on the way to a Twins 7-2 win. Today, Buxton recorded his first ever five-hit game, and came up just a triple shy of the cycle. We already mentioned the solo shot to leadoff the ballgame. On a couple of his hits later in the game, it was Buxton’s wheels, not his power that was on display.

    https://twitter.com/bbletter/status/1387466340831842307

    https://twitter.com/Cut4/status/1387485103983677442

    When all was said and done, Buxton had collected 10 total bases along with a stolen base on his way to earning the YouTube Player of the Game honors. Can we just give Buxton the MVP award already?

    Dobnak throws two shutout innings

    Thanks to the offensive explosion, the Twins did not need to rely on the bullpen to close out the game late, something the Twins have been unable to do at all this year. Instead, it gave Rocco Baldelli the flexibility to turn to Randy Dobnak, who produced his best outing of the season, giving up just a single to go along with three strikeouts in two shutout innings of work.

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet).

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    I also flinched. He definitely landed on first base awkwardly. I really thought he would grab his hamstring or something after the play.

    The baseball gods are fickle, but they aren't without mercy. We have all seen many pitchers and players struggle with performance and injury in their early years before health and experience and physical/ mental maturity take hold things just begin to "click". This may be Byron's time. Finally! It may also be Berrios's time.

     

    Good and bad for the Twins to find some way to keep both.

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    I'm so happy for Buck; he worked hard on his craft and endured. I will be rooting for his just reward in FA even though we won't have a chance.

     

    He's not going to hit over 400 for the season but I don't see a huge regression either. That swing is more compact, efficient and confident.

     

    I love the win today, BUT remember that we simply crushed a horrible SP like previous teams had done to the poor guy. AND we didn't have to use our bullpen.

     

    So, they still have lots to prove and I hope they do it!

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    Actually 10 runs was pretty close to average. MLB average was 0.52 runs per 1st inning, which would be 11.4 for our 22 games entering today. (The 3 teams ranked ahead of us with 11 runs had each played 1-3 more games than us so far.)

     

    The broadcast today noted that we led all of MLB with a .360 AVG in the first inning. But second-fewest first inning HR and walk totals meant those hits didn't translate into above-average run scoring. That sure changed today!

     

    I just want to say that I really enjoy how you add additional stats and context to numbers, in a lot of different scenarios. Thanks!

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    The particular lineup we saw today should be tough to beat. Lots of home run potential, and the infield should be great. Also good to see Happ pitch another effective game. 

     

    Maybe the breaks are starting to even out.

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    Perhaps the Cleveland team will want to choose the name, "Baby Seals," because they sure got clubbed today.

     

    Stepping back now from the precipice of bad taste to simply observe that today's lineup batted 10/40 with two walks, so there is still room for improvement. Hopefully this was the day the Twins turned the corner.

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    Nice to see the bats break out but home runs are not the answer. They need to be better hitters and home runs can only lead to more strikeouts. let's see what happens in the games that are close. Also nice that Happ is in a good groove right now. The bullpen could not possibly blow this one- even if Austudillo was pitching....or could they?

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    I imagine Kirilloff will also go back when Sano is activated.

     

    I vote for a LOOOOOONNNNNNNGGGGGGG rehab assignment for Sano prior to him rejoining the team.  

     

    Let the Turtle and AK man 1B for awhile.

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    It's a lot more fun around here after a win. 

     

    I liked the Happ signing at the time, but didn't think he'd be this good. Glad to see at least one move that worked! (Simmons worked too)

     

    This team has been so incredibly frustrating so far. The talent is still there, but April has been such a mess of screwups and guys just flailing that you had to wonder. I still don't know why exactly the bullpen is such a mess, and until we start seeing consistent production from guys NOT named Buxton, Arraez, Donaldson, and Cruz we're just not gonna be there.

     

    But maybe, just maybe we're starting to see them get it together? Maybe some warmer weather, night games, and fans in the stands will start helping this crew get it together before the season implodes.

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    This team has been so incredibly frustrating so far. 

     

    Sure, but we can still celebrate a fun win.

     

    Yes it's very tempting to be snarky and say something like, "Baldelli's genius game plan to hit 3 home runs in the first inning proves his diabolical baseball mind was just waiting for the right moment to strike!"

     

    But saying that is less fun than enjoying the win. A baseball season is a process, yesterday is old news.

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    Bob's said,"Also, I'm going to be REALLY curious what Maeda looks like once the weather warms.Guy pitched in NL West entire career...and didn't pitch in Minnesota til July in 2020 due to Covid."

    This is a really good point. Maeda relies on command and I can see how the cold could be getting to him. He has appeared frustrated. I'm counting on Kenta figuring it out.

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    I imagine Kirilloff will also go back when Sano is activated.

     

    I really hope the Twins have a short leash with Sano or Kepler if one of them struggles for an extended amount of time when they return. Kirilloff made solid contact and looked like he belongs in the bigs, so he should get the ABs if one of those other two can't produce. 

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    Lots of talk today about getting Buxton and Berrios signed to extensions. 

     

    The Twins have Kepler, Sano and Polanco all signed for several years to very reasonable contracts. Arraez is another key player who won't demand huge dollars. Several positions will be locked up by Kirilloff, Larnach, Rortvedt, Balazovic and Lewis at rookie/pre-arbitration dollars. That should leave lots of dollars to get these two signed to contracts at top dollars without overall payroll getting too ridiculous. 

     

    Time to back the Brink's truck up to the Pohlad National Bank for a trip over to Target Field to keep this pair Twins for life. Got me wondering, do they still own a bank or have they all been sold?

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    I did not watch yesterday, but the highlights continue to show that Buxton may have figured it out at the plate and will put up some crazy numbers this year.  I said all along what was holding him back is his lack of pitch recognition.  He is staying off the breaking pitches out of the zone and crushing the ones in the zone.  He also is not missing fastballs in the zone either.  I do not know his chase rate but has to be very low and same with whiff rate.  For most part his BABIP is not luck he is hitting the ball hard all over the field.  Looks like the muscle he put on has also helped him at the plate for some reason. 

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    I did not watch yesterday, but the highlights continue to show that Buxton may have figured it out at the plate and will put up some crazy numbers this year.  I said all along what was holding him back is his lack of pitch recognition.  He is staying off the breaking pitches out of the zone and crushing the ones in the zone.  He also is not missing fastballs in the zone either.  I do not know his chase rate but has to be very low and same with whiff rate.  For most part his BABIP is not luck he is hitting the ball hard all over the field.  Looks like the muscle he put on has also helped him at the plate for some reason. 

    Actually, Buxton's chase rate is one of the few areas where he has room for improvement this season. According to Baseball Savant, his chase rate is in the 10th-percentile of MLB, meaning that only 10% of the league chases more than he does. This is reflected in his very low walk rate, which is only in the 5th-percentile. However, he more than makes up for this with a K-rate that is below league average, and all of his batted ball stats are off the charts. He's not going to keep hitting like this all season, so I think the next step he needs to take to make his success more sustainable is chasing fewer pitches and taking more walks.

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