Front Office Signals Starting Rotation Might Be Complete- Should Fans Buy In?

On March 29, Twins President of Baseball of Operations Derek Falvey seemed to suggest that although the Twins making a trade for another starting pitcher is not off the table yet, Opening Day might be drawing too close to realistically get a deal done. This sentiment has resulted in some mixed feelings from Twins fans- namely frustration at a Front Office traditionally hesitant to spend on top tier starting pitching, and one that seemingly has done it again. We're out of time, they seem to be saying. Should fans buy this excuse?

When free agency opened last fall, despite the lockout looming and a depleted starting rotation that was 25th out of the 30 MLB teams in ERA, the Twins only signed starting pitcher Dylan Bundy to a one-year, $4 million guarantee. While establishing a floor on the starting rotation, Bundy's 6.06 2021 ERA did not exactly whip pitching-hungry Twins fans into a frenzy. Other teams were plenty active during this pre-lockout time- many of the top-regarded starting pitcher free agents in this strong class were claimed, some of whom include: Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Eduardo Rodríguez, Justin Verlander, Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Steven Matz, Corey Kluber and Alex Cobb. Of the top-regarded starters, only Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw remained. Kershaw was regarded as unlikely to sign with Minnesota, anyway, so really, that just left Rodón. If the Twins planned to rebuild their rotation through free agency, they missed their chance pre-lockout.

Once the MLB lockout ended on March 10, the Twins joined the league-wide free agent and trading frenzy and made a sizeable pitching move. Credit needs to given where it is due: on March 13, the Twins traded 2021 first round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds for starting pitcher Sonny Gray, and part II of the offseason seemed to be off to a promising start. The Twins had a pressing need to numerically round out their starting rotation, and at 18 years old, Petty would not be ready to pitch for the Twins for at least five years. Because high quality free agents were no longer an option, the trade seemed to make sense. Gray has performed well in spring training and is primed to be the ace of the Twins rotation (though he might not be a top of the rotation guy elsewhere). However, it was obvious that one more arm was needed to round out the rotation in light of the Twins trading Jose Berrios and losing Kenta Maeda to injury last season- a rotation that already included Bundy, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan- so Twins fans kept waiting. More had to be coming.

But as the remaining top free agents, and then the third and fourth starters, disappeared off the board one by one and the days ticked by, the Twins rotation remained at four. According to this list, the Twins, arguably one of the most in-need of starting pitching teams in the MLB, signed exactly one of the top 25 free agent pitchers, Bundy, ranked 20th. With the free agent market now even more bare, it was evident that a trade now was needed to complete this rotation. But time kept passing. Articles were even written about how long the Twins could get by without a fifth starter. Rumored potential Twins trades involving Oakland Athletics pitchers Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea still have not panned out at the time of this writing. Twins beat reporters are swamped with memes in response to nearly every one of their tweets questioning the whereabouts of a certain Athletics pitcher. 

Finally, on March 28, the Twins announced they had signed free agent pitcher Chris Archer to a 1-year deal. A fifth starter at long last. Archer has a high ceiling as a former two-time All Star with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he underwent surgery in 2020 for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and has played little since (19.1 innings in 2021), so it is difficult to predict his future success. He essentially fills the role left by former Twins pitcher Michael Pineda, who was a free agent this offseason too and seemed like a low-risk, high floor move for a rotation still in flux. However, the Twins made the conscious decision to move on from Pineda and did not contact him during free agency before he signed with the Detroit Tigers.

Archer’s contract is only worth $3.5 million plus incentives, which leaves the Twins in a good financial position to make another signing. Archer's signing was met with mixed reactions from Twins fans. When he signed, a common sentiment was that that he could not possibly be the final missing piece to the 2022 starting rotation, right? Though the starting rotation has now been numerically rounded-out with the Archer signing, it is hard not to feel that there is still something missing, especially in light of the addition of Carlos Correa, a clear signal that the Twins intend on competing in 2022.  But then came Falvey’s quote.

Falvey’s sentiment, which seems to suggest that there is not enough time to make moves to bolster the starting rotation in this “late stage” did not sit quite right with some Twins fans- me included. Yes, we are in the "late stage" of the offseason- we are about a week away from Opening Day. That is about as close to the 11th hour as you can get. But to be clear, the Twins are in a self-inflicted time crunch. They have no one to blame but themselves. Free agency began last fall and the Twins knew well where they stood at that time. The Twins front office throwing their hands up now and seemingly saying, “well, it’s too late now!” seems like a bit of a hollow excuse for fans, especially in light of the Correa signing that produced so much hope for the 2022 season’s success- not to mention ticket sales.The Correa signing resulted in a massive amount of tickets sold- over 100,000 from March 19 when the signing was announced until March 23.

It was thought by some that this signing was practically conditioned on the fact that the Twins would be making some more big starting pitching moves- a starting rotation filled with firepower to complement a young, highly talented Twins batting lineup that appears to be top-to-bottom strong.  To put it humorously, as I wrote in a blog post in the immediate aftermath of the Correa signing,  “[m]ore pitching moves have to be coming. Having this starting rotation with Correa on your roster is like having Ikea furniture in your Lake Minnetonka mansion. Time to upgrade.” 

None of this is intended as a knock on the non-Sonny Gray members of the rotation- Ober, Ryan and Bundy have experienced success during spring training and Archer is yet to debut for the Twins. The rotation on paper and as a whole just seems a bit lackluster given what was available on the free agent market months ago, and there are valid questions that can be asked regarding how some members of the rotation will perform over the course of an entire season. Ober and Ryan have not yet experienced a full season's starting pitcher workload in the MLB (In 2021, Ryan went 26.2 innings and Ober went 92.1). Archer is a wildcard both performance and durability-wise due to his injury history. More depth is needed in case any of the starting rotation members end up on the IL. There is very little room for error health-wise with the current rotation. 

It’s true that a signing might still come and that Falvey would not necessarily show his hand if a trade was imminent, but considering one has not occurred and other teams are trying to nail down their Opening Day rotations as well, I am skeptical. And if the Twins do still make a trade before Opening Day, it shouldn’t be a “I told you so” moment- Twins fans have a right to be wary based on the team's past track record in regards to acquiring (or not) starting pitching. Fans have every right to expect more out of the team they love and financially support. So should Twins fans accept the front office’s excuse that they just ran out of time? I recognize that I am not in the negotiating war room, Maybe they tried extremely hard but just could not pry Montas and Manaea from the Athletics’ clutches despite giving great offers, and maybe they just could not land any of those free agents for the same reason, Maybe they just had bad luck. But history suggests otherwise. Out of time? I am not so sure we should let the front office off that easily. 

So yes, where Frankie?