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MLB free agency is really one name for two overlapping but distinct tasks. One of those is finding short-term answers to immediate problems. In this aspect, a front office needs to reinforce thin areas on their roster; balance the pursuit of upside with the necessity of setting a firm floor for a given roster spot; and husband their resources as closely as possible. They need to fill holes without leaving themselves ossified or cornered when the opportunity or the need to change tack arises.
The other task that makes up free agency, though, is adding high-impact talent to the franchise on a long-term basis. This is talked about too rarely, but it’s crucial.
That’s because, ultimately, having star-caliber players is a non-negotiable prerequisite for consistent contention. To longtime baseball fans, this can seem like the vapid talk of a cotton-headed basketball or football fan. No individual can have the same impact on a ball club as LeBron James can have on a basketball team, or even the impact that any of several good quarterbacks can have on their rosters.
One of baseball’s beautiful characteristics is that depth will out, and that good teams are unavoidably reliant upon a broader base of contributors. Every roster spot matters, and stars can’t carry subpar fellows very far. The bottom 60 percent of a 26- and a 40-man roster needs to be full of guys who hew closer to average than to the replacement level, or else a team will stall out over the long season.
True though that might be when it comes to analyzing a team based on its two or three best players, it fades into irrelevance if you judge a team by its seven or eight best. Good teams need above-average players—not a couple of them, but a cadre.
It’s simple math, really. If you have that army of credible, almost-good players rounding out the bottom of the roster, you’ve set a floor somewhere between 70 and 75 wins. If the top handful of batters and pitchers are each just a win above average, though, you can’t push much past 85 wins. Teams with real chances of reaching and causing trouble in the postseason, and especially those who stand any chance of doing so multiple times in a span of a few years, need to have clear paths to 90 wins or more.
A deeper dive into players who post a 4+ WAR tells why the Twins have been coming up short against the more elite teams in the American League, including in the postseason. But we reward our Caretakers with the meatier stories like this, since they’re the ones that support paying writers for a more thorough examination.
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