Four Twins Make MLB Pipeline Top 100

I would not be willing to trade 2 from this list unless it includes the last 2. OAK needs a 2B/3B so Arraez will be attractive to them. We have over abundance of good bat and poor glove types and lack depth at key positions so I'd keep both Lewis and Martin (trading either would be a big mistake). So trading Arraez and Larnach would make the most sense if they'd go it. If not maybe Arraez and Balazovik,  probably both trades would need a 3rd piece for Montas

I would be willing to reverse the Berrios trade giving them Martin and SWR and throw in someone like Strotman, Vallimont or Henriquez all of whom we acquired in trade. I could maybe see Martin and Balazovich but that would hurt some.  

I can't see moving Lewis, MIranda, or Ryan as they are pretty important to keeping the team young with years of control and all three look like difference makers to me.

9 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

If the Twins can get Montas using Balazovic and Arraez as the headliners, I will be ecstatic. Arraez might be the perfect fit for the OBP/moneyball ways of Billy Beane, but I personally don’t know if he’s viewed as the same caliber as the three hitters above.

I believe Arraez is worth more because he has proven himself. According to BTV Arraez has a higher trading value than any of these. OAK is going through a salary dump not necessarily a rebuild. So they may consider Arraez if he's offered

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I believe Arraez is worth more because he has proven himself. According to BTV Arraez has a higher trading value than any of these. OAK is going through a salary dump not necessarily a rebuild. So they may consider Arraez if he's offered

Agreed. It's like the "trade Polanco" crowd who crawls out of their caves every year. These aren't prospects, they're established, legit big league players in their prime. They could bat in the top 3rd of the order in any MLB lineup right now. I realize you have to give something up to get something back, but if you can give up a Larnach instead of a Polanco/Arraez, you do that every time.

The problem I have in giving up anyone off this top 5 list is that for 3 of them we would be selling low. Ryan isn't going to be traded because then we're just upgrading a starting slot, not filling one. Miranda is the only one we would be selling "high" on, and there seems to be a perception (manufactured, perhaps, by teams hoping to get him cheaper?) that his season might have been a fluke.

Martin, Lewis, and Balazovic are all coming off seasons where they had varying degrees of injury and difficulty, and when you sell low on a prospect it usually means you're adding in more guys...which increases the odds of the whole thing backfiring on you. I'm happier moving prospects that are rising, like what we did with Petty. He's a terrific talent, but could have a ton of bumps in the road. But the potential projections on him are terrific. All of the guys on this list are getting downgraded to some extent because they're close to the majors (or already there) and prospect evaluators almost always rank potential over actuality. Because you can always talk yourself into projecting development. The reality is, you should value guys that are closer to the majors more, because there fewer obstacles in their development path and you should know more about who they are and will be as players. But it doesn't seem to work that way...

Revel in this list while you can.  Oakland's price is going to be very high.

I would rather make a lower cost trade for 1 of Manea, Freeland, or Elieser Hernandez.

It doesn't have to be Montas/Manea or bust if the bidding gets out of control.

Oakland is pitting several teams against one another to drive up the price for Montas. Are the Twins doing the same dance by pitting Oakland against Cincinnati?  Castillo or Montas?

If the price gets too high, they could also wait for the trade deadline and get a 3 month rental. Maybe see if Cueto can hold down a spot in the near term.

I am guessing Oakland will want one of Martin/Lewis and also a top pitching prospect. Would I do this for Montas?  No, I would not. That would effectively be giving up more than what we received for Berrios. Also, the Twins are in the position they're in because they can't develop good pitching. They should not be giving away top pitching prospects. I think the highest I would go for Montas is one of Martin/Lewis and a lesser pitching prospect in the 10-20 range. 

At least Chase Petty is not on the top 100 list...yet.

I would give up Lewis, Larnach and Balazovic for Montas. Keep Arraez and Martin. I am not as high on Lewis because he has not proven he can hit. I am actually higher on Caveco than Lewis. I am in SoCal and heard of both out of high school.

I think who gets traded will depend upon how the braintrust feels about them long term--do they like Martin more than Lewis, Lewis more than Miranda, etc.  I am in the camp that says don't overpay for Montas, but I think that by signing Correa, the FO has determined they are going to make a run for it.  Getting Montas may be important enough to them to do a bit of an overpay, as Correa will be gone next year so they have a one year window.  Or, they may turn their attention to Manaea as he has only one year of control and will cost less.  Gosh, I wish they would have added one pitcher last fall.  We would be in great shape if that was the case (yes I know it would have pushed the budget but only for one year as Correa will likely be gone).

Aside from last year, Montas had never started more than 16 games in a season. He went 13-9 last year with a 3.37 ERA. That's a nice arm to have in your #3 spot in the rotation if you're an elite team.

But those aren't "ace" numbers. And he just turned 29.

Do the Twins really gamble away Martin or Lewis on someone like that?

20 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I would not be willing to trade 2 from this list unless it includes the last 2. OAK needs a 2B/3B so Arraez will be attractive to them. We have over abundance of good bat and poor glove types and lack depth at key positions so I'd keep both Lewis and Martin (trading either would be a big mistake). So trading Arraez and Larnach would make the most sense if they'd go it. If not maybe Arraez and Balazovik,  probably both trades would need a 3rd piece for Montas

Oakland is clearly tearing down the roster.  Anyone that has value and still 1 to 2 years of team control are getting traded.  Unless they shock people it is unlikely Oakland will be competing in next 2 years.  Why would they want a guy like Arraez in a trade as the headliner?  By time they are going to compete again Arraez will be on the trading block.  I see no way that Arraez is the piece Oakland is trying to get from Twins.  They want either Lewis or Martin most likely and one of the top starting prospects.  Most likely a third lower tier prospect as well.  I would shocked if we make a deal with Oakland and Arraez is part of it, not that we would not deal him, but because he does not fit Oakland time table right now. 

My guess to get Montas is it would take Lewis, who the Twins shouldn’t trade, or Martin, plus a package of two others like Balzovic and maybe Arraez or another high minors pitcher like Duran. If the FO can do that without any players likely to be in the big leagues this year do it! Definitely don’t want to see Lewis traded.

12 hours ago, Genera10bserver said:

I would give up Lewis, Larnach and Balazovic for Montas. Keep Arraez and Martin. I am not as high on Lewis because he has not proven he can hit. I am actually higher on Caveco than Lewis. I am in SoCal and heard of both out of high school.

You are higher on Caveco than Lewis, because Lewis has not shown he can hit?  Caveco in his first full year had OPS of .598 with a k rate of 35%.  Lewis first full season had OPS of .803 with a K rate of 16%.  Caveco also only played rookie and low A, where Lewis did low A and high A.  Yes, last season Lewis played his numbers were lower, OPS of .661 and K rate of 22%, but also was against higher league and he won MVP of fall league.  You may not be high on Lewis, but to say you are not high on him because he has not shown he can hit, but then say you are high on Caveco, who has shown he is much worse hitter so far.  Lower power, higher strike outs, lower walks.  Could Caveco become better, sure anything is possible, but right now there is no way Caveco is considered a better possible hitter than Lewis. 

3 hours ago, Trov said:

Oakland is clearly tearing down the roster.  Anyone that has value and still 1 to 2 years of team control are getting traded.  Unless they shock people it is unlikely Oakland will be competing in next 2 years.  Why would they want a guy like Arraez in a trade as the headliner?  By time they are going to compete again Arraez will be on the trading block.  I see no way that Arraez is the piece Oakland is trying to get from Twins.  They want either Lewis or Martin most likely and one of the top starting prospects.  Most likely a third lower tier prospect as well.  I would shocked if we make a deal with Oakland and Arraez is part of it, not that we would not deal him, but because he does not fit Oakland time table right now. 

I have not heard the A's FO say they were in a full rebuilding mode. I did hear them say that they were reducing salary (salary dumping) and that is the prime reason for the tear down. So I can see them accepting Arraez as part of the transitional piece until they go thru another salary dumping before they move.

If OAK demands Lewis or Martin, I'd walk away. Like I said prior, we are so very thin at our most crucial positions CF, SS and C, to me it doesn't make sense to trade from our weakness. LAD is so very deep at CF with true MLB ready CFs, yet they just signed Kevin Pillar. How many true MLB ready CFs do we have to back up Buxton - ZERO.

If Arraez or Larnach isn't exceptable to OAK, I'd be OK with any other prospect combination that does not include Lewis or Martin especially Lewis ( he has the highest upside, most intangibles and lower trade value).