Following The Cubs' Blueprint

I think you are on something or onto something. Maybe they can even turn a couple of the suspects in the rotation into bullpen assets. I'm thinking about Gibson and Duffey especially. Then maybe they do the same on defense- move Sano to first or DH and plug something resembling a major league catcher and shortstop onto the field. Those are moves a mid-market team ought to be able to accomplish in an offseason.

Aye aye.  Thing #1 has got to be stop making the incredibly stupid decisions they've undertaken the past couple of years- like Trevor May and Alex Meyer in the bullpen, and Mr. Sano to the OF- moves that even the most casual fan on the sidewalk would never consider.  Like holding on to Mr. Plouffe way, way, way past his sell-by date.  Like letting a solid catcher like John Hicks just fall through the AAA cracks, going on to post a +.900 OPS, through sheer not-paying-attention.  Need I go on?  I can, and that's the saddest part.  

Any question about pitchers who don't work out here, and go on to blossom elsewhere, as soon as they're out of the Twinkie tutelage?  The utterly ridiculous grab-bag lineups that Molly threw out there day after day?  The way he jerked around nearly every kid who came up to the bigs?  

OK, I'll stop now, but only because I'm tired, not because I ran out of stupid.  

So, how about it, new guy?  Can you stop that fools' parade?

Payroll is an advantage. There, we all agree. Now can we all agree it is not ok to be this bad this long? That payroll should not be an excuse to be bad? That seems like a reasonable request to me.

 

They are bad because they've not acquired enough talent, either thru the draft, trades or FA. Not because they don't have enough money to be good.

I do not think anyone has ever said they are bad due to payroll. Payroll limits  what you can add. The bad is not due to the one or two players you can not add.  Payroll comes into play when you are good trying to achieve excellence .

As long as the Pohlad's own this team, you're never going to see a high payroll.  Cleveland and the Royals are the teams the Twins should be copying.  Cleveland traded for Kluber - who was never a top 100 prospect - for example.  The Cubs have advantages that the Twins, Royals and Cleveland don't so it doesn't make sense to compare.  Teams with 200m payrolls can erase errors that the Twins can't/won't.   

Nobody is advocating the Twins payroll reach 200+ million. Likewise nobody is stating that the Cubs don't have a monetary advantage. However, that club didn't just shop for FAs for a few years and buy their way into the WS. They made good trades, drafted well, developed young talent, found the right manager, ect...Those are all things that the Twins are absolutely capable of doing, so yes it makes perfect sense to compare the two clubs in that regard. 

Last year they won the 3rd most games in baseball (even though they had to play in the division that had the best and 2nd best records)and their payroll was well within what the Twins could spend if they chose to.

And the core of this team is young, deep and inexpensive and were brought to the team by means other than FA signings.  The expensive players (the whopping 4 getting more 11M or more a year) aren't making this a playoff team, it would be a playoff team without them.  A couple of the expensive players are making it an elite team.  Of the four who get over 11M a year, one of them is a position player who has severely under-performed and didn't start last night (nor will tonight).  Another is a catcher who has hit horribly this year. The other two are pitchers that have been very good, that's for sure.  Without those two maybe they only win 94 games.

A starting rotation oh Hendricks, Arietta, Montgomery, Cahill and whoever else is in their system might be in the playoffs, but not for long.

Hammell is getting paid 10M.  Most teams can afford that, Cubs aren't the only ones. With the offense this team has (3rd best in baseball even without Schwarber) and defense this team plays (best in baseball, easily), I'd take my chances with Hendricks (ERA leader), Hammell, Arrieta (former CY Young winner), Montgomery and Cahill. Certainly teams with much worst rotations and offense, have won W Series.  Last year, for example.  Certainly a team with such a great offensive and defense wouldn't become super weak without Lackey and Lester.

Perhaps having players like Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Fowler help along with having a great manager. They won all those games without even the benefit of having Schwarber. 

Things like drafting, trades, development etc are things ALL teams do - it's the reason Cleveland is in the WS this year and the reason the Royals won it last year.  No one thinks the Twins can't or shouldn't do that.  But comparing the Twins to the Cubs - the "it" team of the moment - is a purposefully false comparison.  The Cubs are where they are because of payroll.  They wouldn't be the Cubs without that payroll.  If they had the limits the Twins had, there is no evidence that they would be in the WS.  There is evidence that teams with similar or worse payroll handicaps to the Twins have made the WS and those are the teams we should be looking at.

I realize ALL winning teams do those things well, that was my point, they aren't unique to Chicago and therefore the Twins can follow that path.  

Significant FA signings the past few years:

John Lackey - 2 years $32 million

Ben Zobrist - 4 years $54 million, 

Dexter Fowler - 2 years $17 million

Chris Coghlan - 1 year $5 million 

Jason Hammel - 2 years $20 million

Jon Lester - 6 years $155 million

Miguel Montero - 6 years $66 million

David Ross - 1 year $2 million

Jason Heyward - 8 years $184 million

Significant players drafted or acquired via trades:

Jake Arrieta - $11 million this year, arb eligible next year

Kris Bryant - arb eligible 2019

Javier Baez - arb eligible 2019

Willson Contreras - arb eligible 2019

Kyle Hendricks - arb eligible 2018

Anthony Rizzo - 7 years $41 million....seriously that is his actual contract

Addison Russell - arb eligible 2019

Kyle Schwarber - arb eligible 2019

Jorge Soler - 4 years $15 million left

Aroldis Chapman - 1 year $11 million

If you look at those two lists with even a small amount of objectivity I don't understand how you can think they purchased their ticket to the WS or they would only be there because their payroll is so deep. Seriously, the draft/trade list is almost their entire lineup. Zobrist, Ross, and Fowler are the only FA position players seeing regular action this postseason, and Fowler hasn't exactly been lighting it up. Heyward has been awful and is now on the bench! Coghlan and Montero have played sparingly. Hammel isn't even on the postseason roster. Lester and Lackey have been solid no doubt. Honestly though, the idea that this team is in the position they are because of their payroll just isn't true. There are 3 contracts on that team that exceed all contracts currently on the Twins books (not counting Mauer here, didn't think that was really fair) and of those three, two of them; Heyward and Montero, have done nothing in the postseason and really haven't been good all year. If the Twins can drop $50 and $55 million on Ervin and Ricky I see no reason the Lacky, Hammel, and Zobrist types are off limits. So when you boil it down, the Cubs have been so successful this season because of a young core of studs on rookie contracts, mid level FA signings that have been solid, trades that have worked out well, and one big FA acquisition. I'm not buying the idea that because the Cubs signed Lester, their philosophy of constructing a winning team is somehow beyond the Twins. My hope is that when Mauer's contract comes off the books that money is allocated towards upper tier pitching, because this team DESPERATELY needs it. Even if that isn't the case, looking at the breakdown of who is contributing and what they're making I see no reason the Twins can't do the same. 

OMG....Heyward has a bad year at the plate, proves WAR is bad/evil/wrong? Unreal.

I'm not sure it's unreal.  Ridiculous maybe, but not unreal :-)

As you know, it's not like WAR continued to say that he was a 5-6 WAR player this year regardless of his horrible season at the plate.  He went from a wRC+ of 120 last year to 72 this year and his WAR dropped over 4 points. His defense was still awesome, but his offense was horrible and his WAR this year reflected that.

Well, Heyward is legitimately very good on defense, so I'm not sure how WAR is "wrong" to incorporate his defensive stats. Turns out that corner OF defense is actually pretty important.

OMG....Heyward has a bad year at the plate, proves WAR is bad/evil/wrong? Unreal.

Or like Cameron said yesterday:

'I think it’s mostly confirmation bias. There’s been a vocal anti-Heyward crowd for years because they didn’t like the idea that a corner outfielder with average power could be an elite player. So now that he’s struggling, they’re just saying “I told you so” rather than looking at his performance objectively.'

Well, Heyward is legitimately very good on defense, so I'm not sure how WAR is "wrong" to incorporate his defensive stats. Turns out that corner OF defense is actually pretty important.

Ryan has made it clear over the years that corner OF is basically the least important thing for a team. One of many reasons why I'm glad he's gone.  Defense is important at every position and punting defense shouldn't be something a team does so easily.

Re Heyward, 2016 looks like an outlier to me.
He's still 27. Lots of time to make good on that contract.

yeah, I'm not worried about him.  Even if he gets back to being even a league average offensive player, he'll still be very valuable with that defense.

Not sure you read that right......he didn't just lose power this year. And, shockingly, his WAR reflects that. When he doesn't hit, no amount of corner D makes him a good player. Have you actually looked at his WAR this year.....because that is what WAR says, he was mediocre overall.....

 

I remain boggled people want to not take into account any defensive "score" when deciding players are good or not...

Well, prior to this year he's been a corner OF with little power, so he must not be valuable because corner OFs need to be all offense and no defense to be valuable.  It's always been that way.  Now get your kids off my lawn!:-)