Filling Out the Rotation: Behind Berrios, Dobnak Is Best Internal Candidate for Starting Spot

Not sure they will be ready to plug Graterol into the rotation on day 1, but I'd much rather see him in the starting rotation long term.

I don't see Dobnak being a particularly good starter long term, but his stuff could play up in a bullpen role like Littell's this year.

Wasn't openly stated if you are simply saying next man up as the roster sits now, or projecting best man up for the 5th rotation spot. I am assuming the latter as...

1] Berrios/Acquisition

2] Acquisition/Berrios

3] Odorizzi

4] Pineda/Acquisition

...would seem logical.

I agree Dobnak makes the most sense at this point as 1st choice for the last spot. His stuff is decent and he knows how to pitch. How good he can become, obviously, is to be determined.

Smeltzer, Thorpe and Graterol will all offer still competition. And all 4 will help at some point. Should also point out that if Pineda is back, we are going to need a couple of these guys the first 30 days or so.

I hope not.  This is a nice story, but I am not buying into him for the long run.   I do want him on the roster and if he is number 5 in the rotation I am fine, but I want a World Series appearance and if the cast last year was not good enough Dobnak is not going to raise the level.  Graterol has the stuff to dominate and that is what I want in the rotation.  

I am not big on the large FA contract - the success of those big payouts is not very good. Just for a refresher read this https://www.sportscasting.com/27-worst-free-agent-signings-mlb-history/  Pitchers usually do not age well - Verlander is an outlier in this discussion and he is a sure fire HOF pitchers.  That being said I am interested in younger FAs who have shown an ability that our pitching coach can work with.

Dobnak to me is a #5 starter on a good to great team.  We still need to sign at least 2 starters if not 3.  If Dobnak is supposed to be more than a #5 starter,  Twins will have another make the playoffs, and depart quickly when we see a team with better pitching.

I hope not.  This is a nice story, but I am not buying into him for the long run.   I do want him on the roster and if he is number 5 in the rotation I am fine, but I want a World Series appearance and if the cast last year was not good enough Dobnak is not going to raise the level.  Graterol has the stuff to dominate and that is what I want in the rotation.  

 

I am not big on the large FA contract - the success of those big payouts is not very good. Just for a refresher read this https://www.sportscasting.com/27-worst-free-agent-signings-mlb-history/  Pitchers usually do not age well - Verlander is an outlier in this discussion and he is a sure fire HOF pitchers.  That being said I am interested in younger FAs who have shown an ability that our pitching coach can work with.

I have looked at the history of FA starters quite closely. It’s true the success rate is low but we can’t rely completely on our farm system. What are the options? I have not examined trades for well-established SPs as closely but I don’t think the success rate there is any higher. Plus, those trades cost a king’s ransom in prospects. It’s just a different form of risk and there are lots of examples where the team getting prospects comes out waaaay ahead in the long-run. 

The Twins young core has positioned them to be able to afford FA pitching even given our modest revenue compared to top markets. The next wave of prospects should allow the team to get even better within a payroll structure the team can afford. 

Cole is a real longshot. I think Wheeler is the key. They need to land him. There are enough options for another starter that would be our #3 that we should be able to have at least 3 very good SPs.

Young and FA pitcher rarely go together. Who would that be this year? .

"...Randy Dobnak is the best internal option to remain in the rotation with Jose Berrios."

Even if you disagree...the fact that this is even arguable should scare all Twins fans...and hopefully, it will scare the FO just as much.

I have looked at the history of FA starters quite closely. It’s true the success rate is low but we can’t rely completely on our farm system. What are the options? I have not examined trades for well-established SPs as closely but I don’t think the success rate there is any higher. Plus, those trades cost a king’s ransom in prospects. It’s just a different form of risk and there are lots of examples where the team getting prospects comes out waaaay ahead in the long-run. 

 

The Twins young core has positioned them to be able to afford FA pitching even given our modest revenue compared to top markets. The next wave of prospects should allow the team to get even better within a payroll structure the team can afford. 

Cole is a real longshot. I think Wheeler is the key. They need to land him. There are enough options for another starter that would be our #3 that we should be able to have at least 3 very good SPs.

 

Young and FA pitcher rarely go together. Who would that be this year? .

Great response.  That is my question too.  Who is young enough to not be on the back end of their career like Archer and Kershaw?  How do we find a 24 - 29 year old who needs just a few adjustments to move up as an excellent starter?

Woah... you're arguing to spend... I like it

 

I think Cole should be the shot personally, but I wouldn't complain if they got Wheeler. I think I'd rather target MadBum personally as I'm not nearly as confident in Wheeler, but to be fair, I'm guessing the FO has much more data than we do. 

Wheeler and Odorizzi are the best two options behind Cole and I would be happy if we sign both.

How can you not love Devin Smeltzer's life story. Still to me he seems like the 2nd coming of Tommy Milone.

Randy was a nice story.  If he is in the rotation we have not done enough.

Thinking that Dobnak is the best internal option for the 2019 rotation is like thinking Diamond was going to progress. Same with Smeltzer. I still can't believe he started game 2 of the ALDS instead of Odorizzi. Or that he started a plyoff game, at all! If that is what happens, then the FO will have failed us when it comes to pitching, just like they did this year. Depth. OK. The first options? It makes me cringe.