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  • Falvey Has Seen The Value Of Patience


    Seth Stohs

    Since Derek Falvey has taken the reins in his new job as Minnesota Twins Chief Baseball Operator, he has been asked many questions from local media and fans. As you would expect coming off a 100+ loss season, he’s been asked about his pitching philosophy and on player development. He has been consistent in his responses, as he should be.

    When asked about pitching, he talks about finding it in any way possible, through the draft, player development, free agency and other means. When talking about player development and players struggling early in their careers, he discusses the need for patience. He talked about how it’s not at all unusual for players to come up and struggle for a while before figuring it out.

    Jose Berrios came up through the Twins minor league system and dominated in the lower levels and in the upper levels. Finally given an opportunity to pitch in the big leagues in 2016, he struggled mightily. Some fans chose to question if he really was a prospect. Some questioned if the Twins were capable of developing a front line starter. A few even chose to give up on the idea of Berrios as a big league starter.

    Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today

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    Through his years with Cleveland, Derek Falvey was able to witness one of the best examples out there of why being patient, particularly with pitchers with great stuff, can be very important.

    At the 2009 July trade deadline, Cleveland dealt veteran lefty Cliff Lee to the Phillies in exchange for four players including Carlos Carrasco.

    Carrasco was originally signed by the Phillies in November of 2003 out of Venezuela. He gradually worked his way up. Before 2007, Baseball America ranked him the #41 prospect in baseball. Before 2008, he was ranked 54th. Before the 2009 season, he was ranked #52 by Baseball America. He was a consensus Top 100 pitching prospect. He was named to the Futures Game in 2006, 2007 and 2008.

    In short, the pre-MLB prospect status of Carlos Carrasco was very similar to that of Berrios.

    Like Berrios, Carrasco struggled in his first big league showing. He was called up by Cleveland in September and went 0-4 with an 8.87 ERA in five starts. In 22.1 innings he walked 11, struck out just 11 and gave up six home runs. He was 22 years old.

    He spent most of the next season back in AAA. He did make seven starts for Cleveland and performed admirably, going 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts. He made 21 starts in 2011 and went 8-9 with an ERA of 4.62. In late July, after giving up a home run, he gave up another home run. The next batter, Billy Butler, had a Carrasco pitch sail over his head. Carrasco was immediately ejected. While appealing his suspension, he made one more start, a quality start against Boston. He didn’t pitch the rest of the season. Not because of a suspension. That had to wait. In September, Carrasco had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2012 season.

    His 2013 season began with his suspension. In his first start back, he hit Kevin Youklis, earning another suspension. By July, he had given up 29 earned runs in 28.1 innings. Cleveland decided to DFA him, removing him from the 40-man roster and optioned him to AAA.

    He began the 2014 season by making four starts for Cleveland. He was 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA. Out of options, he went to the bullpen where he began to pitching very well. Well enough, in fact, that he ended the season by making two starts. Overall on the season, his ERA was 2.55. That earned him a four year, $22 million deal with two options years. In 2015, he was 14-12 with a 3.53 ERA. In 2016, he was 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA before a liner up the middle broke a bone his in hand and he missed the World Series run.

    Of course, we don’t want to wait four or five years for Berrios or other pitching prospects to take off in their careers. But it is a great reminder that pitching in the big leagues is not easy, and even some al-star caliber pitchers took a long time to reach that level.

    Patience, they say, is a virtue.

    Derek Falvey is going to need it. Thad Levine is going to need it. Twins fans will also need it.

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    "Of course, we don’t want to wait four or five years for Berrios or other pitching prospects to take off in their careers"

     

    Obviously nobody wants it to take that long but the bigger issue is that the team can't afford to wait 4-5 years for the pitching to finally develop. If the Twins had an average rotation in place maybe they could be more patient waiting on younger pitchers to step in but given the current state and the fact that so much of the rebuild burden has been placed on younger players contributing waiting another 4-5 years just isn't feasible. They're going to waste too many potentially competitive years with a young, cost controlled core reaching their prime.

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    "Of course, we don’t want to wait four or five years for Berrios or other pitching prospects to take off in their careers"

     

    Obviously nobody wants it to take that long but the bigger issue is that the team can't afford to wait 4-5 years for the pitching to finally develop. If the Twins had an average rotation in place maybe they could be more patient waiting on younger pitchers to step in but given the current state and the fact that so much of the rebuild burden has been placed on younger players contributing waiting another 4-5 years just isn't feasible. They're going to waste too many potentially competitive years with a young, cost controlled core reaching their prime.

     

    All that is true, but it should in no way affect the development of the pitching prospect. All that 'rest-of-staff' stuff has to be figured out independent of it.

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    Patience is important, and no two prospects develop exactly the same. Which is part of the reason I get frustrated, and almost laugh at times, when I read things about how Buxton, Berrios, etc, should be moved or given up on already.

     

    The truth is, we as fans need a different kind of patience than was required the past few 90+ loss seasons. Before, we were impatient with injuries, poor trades or not making flip trades, poor to mediocre FA choices or no FA choices, etc, while eagerly awaiting the arrival of a wave of talented prospects.

     

    NOW, we have a new FO in place and we already here about some changes and expansions they want to make. But it won't all happen overnight. Further, with young talent in place, and more coming, this different form of patience must be exercised. At least now, it feels as though there is a new and hopefully forward moving plan taking shape.

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    All that is true, but it should in no way affect the development of the pitching prospect. All that 'rest-of-staff' stuff has to be figured out independent of it.

    Truth. I'm not advocating for a rushed approach, I'm just pointing out that unless the Twins make major trades or become actual players in the FA market they run the risk of those young position players leaving before the team can truly be competitive. Windows don't stay open forever; this team needs to do something other than just show patience with pitching development. 

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    I just hope the team doesn't have to start all over again with the guys they have now. If guys like Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Jorge and Jay have to go back to remedial classes to catch up on things that the previous regime may have not been doing correctly we're going to start running out of option years. I don't want to have to cross my fingers that these guys can be retained after being DFA'd like Cleveland did with Carrasco.

     

    I'll have patience, as long as it doesn't start costing the team prospects. Of course at that point it's unlikely I'd lay the blame at the feet of Falvey.

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    The last few years I got the impression (whether an accurate read or not) that the Twins were not so much reluctant to have propsects struggle as part of their development as they were reluctant to put those struggles on display in front of a shrinking fan base that they were hopiong to sell hope for brighter days ahead.  

     

    By changing up the front office, a fair amount of that hope is now transferred to Falvey and Levine who are, in a way, propsects themselves. 

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    I hope the hype that Berrios has gotten he turns out better than Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is a good pitcher but they have been hyping Berrios so much that would think he's the second coming of Johan Santana. But then they hyped Kyle Gibson to and I thought he was gonna be another Radke but all he's been so far after three years is a younger Mike Pelfrey.

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    I hope the hype that Berrios has gotten he turns out better than Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is a good pitcher but they have been hyping Berrios so much that would think he's the second coming of Johan Santana. But then they hyped Kyle Gibson to and I thought he was gonna be another Radke but all he's been so far after three years is a younger Mike Pelfrey.

    Twins fans were the one over hyping Berrios. His height alone limits his ceiling to a #2...which is fine and all, just not the savior many hoped for.

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    Twins fans were the one over hyping Berrios. His height alone limits his ceiling to a #2...which is fine and all, just not the savior many hoped for.

    That's not true. Berrios was ranked 17 on BP and 19 on MLB's prospects lists.

     

    It's likely Berrios has a ceiling of a two starter but given the kid's work ethic, I won't put anything past him.

     

    The height is an issue but not necessarily something that will prevent him from being an ace if things go entirely right for both Berrios and the Twins.

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    I think one of the great misunderstandings of fandom is the idea that all prospects are the same or should develop on a certain path. Each guy is unique and really have to be considered individually.

    Agree completely, and I will raise you.

     

    Cody Allen was drafted in the 23rd round in 2011. He was in the major leagues the following season and was never demoted. I doubt the Twins have ever promoted a pitcher that fast. I would like to hear more from Falvey about what Cleveland saw in this guy to rush him through the minors like that. A 23rd rounder. 

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    The Giants really made a mistake with Cueto, what with him being 5'11" and everything.

     

    Pitcher height matters but it's not a disqualifying trait.

    Pedro Martinez. Greg Maddux. Johan Santana.

     

    Pitcher height is next to meaningless. The difference in "downward plane" angle from someone 5' 10" and someone 6' 4" is minuscule when standing 60 feet away.

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    Pedro Martinez. Greg Maddux. Johan Santana.

     

    Pitcher height is next to meaningless. The difference in "downward plane" angle from someone 5' 10" and someone 6' 4" is minuscule when standing 60 feet away.

    I don't think it's meaningless but I think downward plane is overrated.

     

    What comes with height is strength and leverage. Those matter but they're certainly not make-or-break attributes, as MLB pitchers have shown not only through history but also recent history.

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