Extension Candidate: Oswaldo Arcia

Oswaldo Arcia debuted early in the 2013 season out of pure necessity. He has spent parts of the last two seasons in the minor leagues. He strikes out more (244 big-league K's) than (insert your least favorite Twins blogger here) did in college. He teases with 34 MLB home runs, but more than mitigates his power by playing subpar defense in right field (-3.4 defensive bWAR in '13 and '14) and now he's moving to the more spacious left field.

Nothing hear screams "SIGN THIS GUY TO A LONG-TERM DEAL" and it shouldn't. As it is - right now - it shouldn't even be on the Twins radar.

But there's a pretty simple it showed up on mine: 1.132

Oswaldo Arcia's service time. There isn't a set number that qualifies you to be a Super-2, instead it has to do with the top percentage of players who fall short of three years of service time. Over the last six years, that number has fallen between 2.122 and 2.146. Right where Arcia projects to be next year.

So what does that mean? The best example I could find that was presentable and makes sense is a comparison between Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson. Both players are set to enter free agency after this season, but their paths through the arbitration process has left them in different spots financially.

First, the players aren't perfect comps but are as apples to apples as I could find. Jackson, though, is much better according to bWAR. Over his career, he's worth 20.2 bWAR compared to Fowler's 11.3. A bigger different, however, is that Fowler was a Super-2 and Jackson was not. Because of that, over the course of their careers, Fowler has made over $24.5m and Jackson has made only $18.5m. Think what Fowler would have made if he was as good as Jackson. I don't think it's unfair to say that Fowler could have earned very near $30m, or 62% more than a superior player who only comes up short, statistically, in terms of service time. (Like I said earlier, it's not the best comparison, but the best I could find.)

So back to Arcia: For this to make any sense, he'll need to improve. He'll need to show that he is part of the core of this team moving forward. Basically, he'll need to make a jump - both offensively and defensively - that Trevor Plouffe has made over the last couple of season. Plouffe, by the way, earned $2.35m as a Super-2 in 2014, the same exact figure that Dexter Fowler made as a Super-2.

If Arcia makes that jump this year and we're heading into the late summer, the Twins should absolutely explore the idea of an extension. Arcia should absolutely listen. If Arcia falls short of Super-2 status, he'll make somewhere around $575k next year. If he hits the yet-to-be-decided cutoff, he makes between four and five times that.

Teams look for cost-certainly. Players look for stability. And at the end of the day, teams want control through a free agent year (or two). There are many times teams and players get creative and escalate the figures of a contract if guys qualify for Super-2 status. The Twins and Arcia, if he turns the corner, would benefit from hammering out a deal this summer.

The worst thing that could happen for the Twins is the next wave arrives, the team gets competitive and their lack of being proactive forces them to lose part of their core, like Arcia. Of course, if he falls on his face this year, he might be in danger of being non-tendered as a Super-2 and this article is moot.

Let's check back in July and see what Ozzie is in left field.