Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler

I guess every contender that missed out on Wheeler is a failure? Seems like a stretch to me. 

 

The more rational explanation is that clubs placed a value on Wheeler, and the Phillies had the highest value, or close to the highest value plus other favorable factors (e.g., geographical location). 

 

If the Twins thought Wheeler was worth $100 million to them, then offering him $125 million would have been a clear error. 

 

If the Twins enter the 2020 season with Dobnak as their #3 starter, then obviously it means they misjudged the valuation of starting pitchers, and thereby missed out on all the decent ones.

 

Unless the Twins actually do fail to improve the rotation, the whining about Wheeler is typical, uninformed fan hysteria with no basis in reality. 

 

I guess every contender that missed out on Wheeler is a failure? Seems like a stretch to me. 

 

The more rational explanation is that clubs placed a value on Wheeler, and the Phillies had the highest value, or close to the highest value plus other favorable factors (e.g., geographical location). 

 

If the Twins thought Wheeler was worth $100 million to them, then offering him $125 million would have been a clear error. 

 

If the Twins enter the 2020 season with Dobnak as their #3 starter, then obviously it means they misjudged the valuation of starting pitchers, and thereby missed out on all the decent ones.

 

Unless the Twins actually do fail to improve the rotation, the whining about Wheeler is typical, uninformed fan hysteria with no basis in reality. 

 

Thanks for sharing some rational thinking. If US Bank acquired another bank, they would assess the value of that business and set a maximum value they would be willing to pay and walk if it could not be acquired at the price they determined. That’s called good management. For some reason many here think the Minnesota Twins should not operate under the same basic principles as any other business.

 

Let’s put it in more personal terms. If an individual goes to buy a home valued at $360K and there are multiple offers that somehow escalated the price to 472K, is it a good decision to pay $472K because you really want it. What if the seller says … I really want to sell to these other people so matching is not adequate? You will need to pay $500K. How many people here would just go for it?

 

BTW …. I used the same ratios present in the Wheeler deal to produce these figures. The expectation the Twins should ignore their valuation and just throw around a hundred million like it is chump change is exceptionally naïve. It never happens.

 

It’s just not that easy for any team and much harder for a mid revenue or less team. I keep asking for those who say they should just do regardless of cost to show me examples of another ML team with the Twins revenue or less who has “just gone for it” and it worked out. Some of you elect to ignore the facts. I welcome anyone who rebuts this notion to prove me wrong with facts.

 

Two teams of similar or less revenue have ever signed such deals. Grienke when the Diamonds landed a billion dollar TV contract. They went nowhere and finally traded him. The other is Mike Hampton. Colorado went nowhere with him. They had 73 wins in each of the first 2 years of his 8 year deal and they traded him. He produced less than 3 WAR over his 8 year contract.

 

Are all of the GMs of similar teams just incompetent that they can’t see paying whatever it takes to get a front of the rotation FA or do fans just not understand why it’s not a good practice to pay whatever it takes?

So Wheeler is gone... BIG DEAL! There are only 2 big fish in the sea this season and he isn't one of them. 

Go big or go home!

Are you arguing the Twins couldn't afford Wheeler?

 

If so, I disagree.

 

If not, what's your point?

The point is that the Twins likely had a maximum value they wouldn’t exceed, because they don’t think Wheeler is worth it. The question is what he should be paid, not whether they can afford to pay him. For instance, they obviously could have very easily afforded to pay Cron his $8 million, but ultimately decided that money could be used better elsewhere. In theory, they could have extended him 5/100, but that would have been dumb.

 

Not saying I agree with capping their offer at 100 million (LNIII has reported the offer was 5/100), just that they seem to have drawn a line they wouldn’t cross.

 

Wheeler was my first choice (well, Cole), but there are still some really good pitchers out there in Bumgarner and Ryu. Baseball teams can also make trades.

From the above example, if you've already stated you need a house, you value the house at $375K, but the bidding reaches $472K, and there are limited houses for sale, you either pay the $472, or you sleep on the street.

 

Perhaps it's not the bidding that's out of line, it's your valuation. Or your aversion to sleeping on the street isn't as strong as you imagined.

A different poster made that analogy, not me.

 

And the second half of my post says some things you might find relevant.

At this point if we're going to overpay for someone lets overpay for Strasburg. But unfortunately we will be bidding against NYY and the LA's and Nat's. 6/190 might get him to listen. Cole was my first choice but based on rumors swirling it doesn't even sound like we are even considering these guys.

 

But I agree with Chief, whoever gets madbum will have to overpay, My guess is 4/90 or more. It may make Wheeler look like a bargain. But Falvine knew they wouldn't get Wheeler with a 5/100, but they at least "tried".

The analogy was from the post I responded to, in your post to me...

 

I've acknowledged elsewhere Bumgarner is still available, but they'll need to overpay for him, just as they would have Wheeler. Perhaps by more, since supply has now dwindled. Also, IMO, Bumgarner is riskier than Wheeler, but again I acknowledge that's just my opinion.

 

Ryu has pitched only 740 innings across 6 MLB seasons. He certainly pitched well last year, but I struggle to consider him "impact pitching," given his inability to stay on the field. YMMV, of course.

There’s plenty of risk with Wheeler, as well. He’s had some significant injuries throughout his career, which has translated into only about three full seasons (in terms of IP) out of five. Last year, his ERA+ was just a hair over league average (it’s exactly average for his career), and his excellent raw stuff hasn’t quite translated to dominant results. He had a really nice season overall, but the contract he signed with Philly is paying him for the upside they’re going to try and unlock. He’s a really good pitcher, and I wish the Twins signed him. It’s not unreasonable to suggest, though, that they may have done the wise thing by stepping away.

 

I think the real lesson to draw from all this is the same as it is every year: it’s critical to hit on all your picks when drafting early in the first round.

 

The core that got swept in the ALDS with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano leading the rotation, you mean?

 

Yes, the same one that employed Jason Tyner at DH. 

The thing is, you will have to overpay EVERY SINGLE TIME in free agency if you are looking for high end starting pitching. We all know that, the front office knows that. 

 

When you really NEED something and you identify a piece there that fits and you have determined it is the BEST piece for you, you need to go get it, no matter what it takes. 

 

Or, the alternative is to be left with what will end up happening, signing someone that is middling to average. 

 

There literally isn't another contending team in the league that needs starting pitching more than the Twins. They know that, everyone else knows it. The price will be steep. Either commit yourself to actually go get it, or tell everyone up front you are not looking to play that game and quit wasting time and work on trades and developing your guys. 

 

Don't come out and tell us how you are going to add impact pitching and come out with a token offer 20 million below what your prize actually signed for. Twins knew the market, they knew he wasn't signing for 5/100. Token, we tried offer is all it was. 

 

Are you arguing the Twins couldn't afford Wheeler? 

 

If so, I disagree.

 

If not, what's your point?

 

If you can't find the point, me explaining will not help.

 

The Twins stated goal for this winter was adding "impact pitching."

 

How do you propose they do that, at this point? There's two FA impact pitchers left...Cole and Strassburg...and one maybe, Bumgarner.

 

Cole/Strassburg are pipe dreams. 

 

By your argument, the Twins shouldn't overpay Bumgarner either, but somebody will. 

 

So the Twins will have failed to meet their stated offseason goal. 

You've defined "impact pitching" too narrowly. You've confused it with buying the most expensive thing on the menu. By the end of the 2020 season, we will be able to look back and see a dozen or more examples of "impact pitching", many of which are not apparent at this moment.

 

From the above example, if you've already stated you need a house, you value the house at $375K, but the bidding reaches $472K, and there are limited houses for sale, you either pay the $472, or you sleep on the street. 

 

Perhaps it's not the bidding that's out of line, it's your valuation. Or your aversion to sleeping on the street isn't as strong as you imagined.

 

You can't possible believe this is logical.  It amazes me that some people refuse to accept something so common as the notion of allocating their own money to things they think are a good value. The concept that a team with average or less than average revenue has to get more production per dollar of payroll is slightly more complex but far from difficult to understand.

 

 

 

Not really. They still pay the $100M he's worth to them. They just add a $25M Stupidity Tax for not having developed their own Wheeler themselves.

 

Free Agency is all about paying the Stupidity Tax.

Two wrongs don't make a right. If there truly was a Stupidity Tax, by the time it was our favorite teams turn to pay, Twins Daily would be a distant memory.

 

Matt Wisler says hi.

 

 

Tyler Duffey says hi too. Both mid-round draft choices who struggled mightily. Maybe he goes the way of Matt Magill. Maybe he goes the way of Tyler Duffey. He's exactly the kind of chance good clubs take if they have any conviction and confidence in scouting and development.

 

My least favorite whiney phrase: "trying hard."

First of all, you don't know they did, even by your own definition.

Second, more importantly, "they tried hard" is a fancy way of describing failure. The end result of trying hard and failing is...failing.

Exactly the same as not trying. Exactly.

And spare me the "lots of FAs dont work out" line, too. Unless you believe Falvine made zero effort to sign Wheeler, because they believe he will fail, that's just post mortem rationalization. If they DID "try hard" then they believe he will be successful.

Not signing Wheeler is a failure. A lost battle in the war.

 

We agree then that the phrase "try hard" should be eliminated from the TD vocabulary. I don't recall defining effort, just have disdain for false, overly harsh, and unfair negative portrayals, of anyone.

 

I accept that you choose to focus exclusively on results. Like 101 wins, right? 

 

Some of us get enjoyment from theorizing about the decision processes as well. So spare me the "only thing that matters is results", and please refrain from implying that, if a guy like me wants to theorize about what might have been the factors involved in, for example, the Wheeler negotiations, that it's post mortem rationalization on my part. There's a difference between seeking an understanding, having a high tolerance for mistakes, and making excuses.

 

You want to say Falvey failed because he failed to close the deal with Wheeler. I have no objection to that, my friend. I agree in fact. One can acknowledge a failure without being critical. I think we have a friendly disagreement about how much criticism is warranted in the Wheeler case, and as we know, we'll find other similar opportunities in the future, 

 

Sadly, we won't have many such disagreements prior to the 2020 season, I fear.

 

 

Yeah, the FA situation is looking grim. Our pal Mike Sixel may have been right in his concern about rebuilding the rotation for 2020, we'll see.

 

And didn't have Liriano.

???

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml

 

???

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml

 

He's right. Liriano didn't pitch in the postseason for the Twins until 2009. By this time he had already blown out his arm and had TJ surgery.