Dozier's Expected Extension

This article doesn't really address the issue in much depth. It's been discussed quite wildly and thoroughly in discussion board threads on a few occasions. 

If the Twins actually do this right now, they are making a weird mistake. 

If I were the owner, I would just give him a nice little bonus for his performance thus far. The spend 2.7 million bucks on Brian Duensing for no reason, why not boost Dozier's salary to 1 million bucks for 2015?

The article says he is under team control until 2019. And we don't have a real handle on which BD is the one we would sign? He is a competent ball player, but the Twins have some promising middle infield players in the pipeline. The only reason it seems to sign him at this time would be for ticket sales.

Going to be a mistake if they give him too much money. He kind of came out of nowhere, who's to say that his production could fall off a cliff?

Year to year is the way to go in this case.

'Brian Dozier isn't arbitration eligible until next offseason but rumors are already starting to build about a possible extension between the second baseman and the Twins. He is under team control until 2019 when he will be coming off his age-29 season.'

Coming off his age-29 season?  It's 2015 and he turns 28 in May of this year. 

He's not able to be a FA until after the 2018 season at which time he'll be 31.

I have zero problem with the Twins buying out his arbitration years and a year or 2 of free agency. The basic form is, Dozier gets the security of a long-term deal and the Twins get a discount over what they would have paid year by year. 

I think it's unlikely the Twins will have to go as high as Kipnis' deal; Dozier has never put together a season as good as Kipnis' all-star campaign and that drove a lot of that money. 

There's some risk in this seeing as how Dozier hasn't put together a complete consistent season yet, but when you factor the potential and the defense, he's an asset I think you want to lock down. I'd suggest the price is more likely to go up than go down if the team waits until say, the all-star break or next season to make a deal happen. If Dozier puts together back to back 5 WAR seasons he's not going to be cheap at all.

I think if you had to pick one guy on that team and say HE is the leader, it'd be Dozier.  Of course, that is completely opinion. That opinion is based on how he carries himself on the field, along with how he seems to push people with his infectious playing style. He's like Punto but with actual starting talent and solid fundamentals.

Wasn't this topic thoroughly covered in several other threads already?

He is under team control for 4 more years. He cannot go anywhere. When he reaches arbitration, he will be paid based on his on-field performance in comparison to other players with the same service time. The Twins haven't lost an arbitration hearing since Kyle Lohse. They have settled or won every one since.

If Dozier does perform at a high level through his arbitration years and it appears that he will be too expensive to keep, the Twins could make a qualifying offer when he reaches free agency and receive a draft pick for compensation if he leaves.

Precisely!! 

A lot depends on Santana and Polanco right now. Dozier might bring back some serious assets if he does well and is still so cheap. The Twins are going to get better and won't have these great draft picks anymore. Selling on Hunter, Dozier, and some pitcher might be quite helpful this year.

Wait until the All-Star break at the earliest.  There's no rush and we need a larger sample.  I'm not big on players much older than their early 30's anyway. 

 

Additionally, what if the team gets lucky and some combinaiton Santana/Escobar/Polanco/Rosario end up showing they are good if not better options?  Dozier and his 4 years of arbitration will be a lot more enticing for other teams than Dozier and a 6 year firm contract no matter how he performs.

I guess if He is going to give the team a deal to lock him up early then why not do it.  If you are going to pay him Kipnis money then why not wait.

I think both sides will be happier in the future if they wait and see what he does this year.  If he performs as well or better than last year then he gets more money and he won't feel cheated having signed for less.  If he performs poorly the team isn't stuck with him to the end of the contract.  I think waiting is the better plan for all concerned on this one.

Don't extend.  The Twins are in a perfect position with him - they have him cost controlled through his prime and then can deal him or let him walk and get a draft pick, precisely at the time they don't want him anymore. 

I'm curious who the source is on this.  I really hope the Twins don't do this......

I don't think it is coming from the Twins. It doesn't make any sense to extend him into his free agent year. At this point his career OPS+ is 98. It is extremely rare that a player will outperform their career OPS+ through age 27 during their age 32 season or older. Trade him by age 30.

I'd definitely hold off on an extension.  As has been pointed out, there is a bevy of talented infielders either on the team now or in the minors.  If Dozier does put it altogether this season, trade him along with one of these pitching duds they've acquired over the past couple years and restock the minors.  Hopefully with some outfielders.  Still can't figure out how the Twins ran out last year.....

It just makes no sense to extend right now.  Polanco will be ready by 2016 or 2017 at the latest.  Trade Dozier in the final 2 years of team control and get a nice return..  This also is one of the reason they need to figure out of Santana is a SS.  If Santana pans out at SS, Polanco is our future 2B.  I like Dozier but why in the world do you want to risk having big dollars tied up in Dozier.  He will be less attractive as a trade asset or worse, his performance goes south and the contract is not only an impediment but you don't get anything in trade.  

You can also look at it this way.  He performs great, you get a great return in trade during the last two years of team control.  You replace him with Polanco or maybe even Michael in the next two years giving us more payroll to work with as the team becomes a contender.  If he falls off, you don't have a big financial commitment to a mediocre player.  The only way it's a good idea is if he improves quite substantially.  I don't like the odds of that happening.