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  • Dodgers 8, Twins 5: Late Home Runs The Difference


    Andrew Mahlke

    The Twins took an early lead thanks to Jorge Polanco and Gary Sanchez, but as it has been so many times with this team, the bullpen relinquished the lead in the late innings on the way to an 8-5 loss.

    Image courtesy of Richard Mackson/USA Today

    Box Score
    SP: Sonny Gray: 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, (80 pitches, 49 strikes (61.3%))
    Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (15), Gary Sanchez (11)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (-.280), Griffin Jax (-.172), Carlos Correa (-.148)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
    QKW6ZwDNRGO3hdgMn5OEegRit7pgPqDAVJN9wVFmuY7bTZRh4XCIOwZANyhtzNCy2100CnnqyU_lzEb-rF3FrmwPRq6sOpJszT9Xzf1Scu5aEzBB8bI3mXXLHFE0rXGD9v4BTTwr3-hqvbLckAFERV8

    Pregame Notes
    Byron Buxton was not in the starting lineup Wednesday night. He has only played one inning in the field in the month of August. Rocco Baldelli revealed that his knee has experienced increased swelling since an awkward landing on a jump in San Diego. The best version of the Twins involves Buxton in centerfield and it’s tough to see them making a playoff run without him out there. He can provide plenty of offensive value but part of what makes him such a special player is the value he provides the team in the outfield.

    Early Deficit
    Like Tuesday night, the Twins allowed the Dodgers to score first on Wednesday when Max Muncy roped a homer off of Sonny Gray and Cody Bellinger drove in Gavin Lux with a sacrifice fly.

    Polanco Stays Hot
    After a tough 0-for-4 night on Tuesday, Jorge Polanco got the scoring started for the Twins in the third inning when he hammered a three-run homer down the right field line to give them a 3-2 lead. Since coming off the injured list on June 28, Polanco is hitting .222/.366/.462 (.828) with eight home runs and 21 RBI

    Gary Breaks The Drought
    Gary Sanchez hit his last home run on July 9th. In the fifth inning on Wednesday, he hammered a fastball from Ryan Pepiot 400 feet to right-center for his 11th homer of the year. Between homers, Gary hit .170/.283/.191 (.474) in 54 plate appearances. Hopefully, this home run is the start of one of those Gary Sanchez hot streaks where he can be one of the most prolific power hitters in the league.

    Sonny Side Down
    Sonny Gray did not have his best stuff, not making it through five innings before being pulled for Caleb Thielbar. Sonny struck out five batters and allowed three earned runs. He held the Dodgers mostly under control the first two times through the order, but the top of the Dodgers order went double, single, pop-out, double off of him the third time through.

    Homer Happy Bullpen
    Chris Taylor hit the go-ahead homer in the bottom of the sixth off of an 0-2 slider from Michael Fulmer. Before that plate appearance, right-handed hitters had not homered off of Fulmer in 111 plate appearances this year. So naturally, the Dodgers were the first team to do so.

    One inning later, Joey Gallo hit a pinch-hit three-run homer for his first homer as a Dodger off of Griffin Jax to give the Dodgers an 8-4 lead.

    Cole Sands did throw a 1-2-3 eighth inning which included strikeouts to Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger so that is a good sign going forward for the rookie.

    All Rise for Arraez
    MLB’s leader in batting average, Luis Arraez, continued the heater he has been on lately. After an uncharacteristic 7-for-42 stretch, Arraez has multiple hits in his last three games, going 9-for-14 in those games, including a 3-for-4 performance on Wednesday. This ties Arraez for second in MLB in three-hit games, his 13th three-hit performance of the season.

    Cold Streak for Kepler
    Since coming off the IL on Saturday, Max Kepler is 0-for-17 and has not reached base safely. He could still be getting acclimated to playing with a broken pinky toe, but the Twins will need Kepler to start hitting, at the very least, at a league-average clip for him to be a solid contributor to the team.

    What’s Next?
    The Twins have an off-day Thursday, followed by a three-game set just 30 miles Southeast against the Los Angeles Angels. On Friday, they play at 8:38 PM CST and Tyler Mahle will make his second start as a Twin against southpaw Patrick Sandoval.

    Postgame Interviews

     

     

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

     

      SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT
                 
    Sands 0 51 0 0 21 72
    Pagan 0 19 0 32 0 51
    Megill 12 0 0 35 0 47
    Jax 11 0 0 0 21 32
    Fulmer 13 0 0 0 17 30
    Thielbar 0 21 0 0 3 24
    López 17 0 0 0 0 17
    Duran 7 0 0 0 0 7
     

     

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    Great question. Here's another - why is Tim Beckham on the roster? He can't hit and doesn't bring a lot of defensive value. understand the thinking, he hit in AAA so maybe he would hit in the bigs. Turned out to be wrong. Replace him with Palacios, play Palacios 1-2 days a week at SS with Correa DHing 1 and sitting 1. 

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    "The Twins took an early lead thanks to Jorge Polanco and Gary Sanchez, but as it has been so many times with this team, the bullpen relinquished the lead in the late innings on the way to an 8-5 loss."

     

    Nitpic: the bullpen didn't relinquish the lead. That was Gray.

    The bullpen relinquished the tie.

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    2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    Oops, sorry.  I know we are supposed to only say negative things when the Twins lose (or even if they win), but I thought the obvious should be at least mentioned.

    "The Dodgers are just too good for us to expect to compete. What did you expect?"

     

    Followed immediately by the obligatory 

     

    "Too many negative posters here."

     

    Heh.

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    19 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

    Put Buxton on the IL until his knee feels better. Playing him hurt all year is futile and demoralizing. Get it fixed, see ya next year. Also put Kepler back on the IL, then rehab in St Paul for at least ten games, or until he stops whiffing and hitting weak grounders. Kepler looks unhappy to be playing in pain. Play a healthy outfield. Cave, Gordon, Celestino. Bring up Contreras again. He looks pretty good.

    Meanwhile, time to tinker some more with the pitching staff. I'd move Archer to the pen, DFA Pagan, then bring up whoever's next in line from the minors. 

    2022 isn't going to be the big year. The Dodgers have been kind enough to show us that. Twins need to have all their stars healthy and playing well to win a playoff series, much less a Super Bowl. Maybe all the guys coming off the 60 day IL will be great..!

    Agree we got to do something to help this roster. Beckham can't hit and doesn't bring a lot of defensive value. Understand the thinking, he hit in AAA so maybe he would hit in the bigs. Turned out to be wrong. Replace him with Palacios, play Palacios 1-2 days a week at SS with Correa DHing 1 and sitting 1. IL either Kepler or Buxton for 10 days depending on how much you think Buxton can play.  Whoever goes misses 3 against LAA,  3 against KC, and 3 of the 4 against Texas. Replacement is either Helman or Contreras. Consider an option/DFA for Cave - nice story but we're back to the same old thing with his 3 SOs last night, 7 SOs in last 25 ABs -  and bring up the other of Helman or Palacios. Bring up Aaron Sanchez, either to pitch long relief or start in place of Archer, DFA Pagan. Up - Palacios, Helman, Contreras, Sanchez. Down or Il - Pagan, Cave, Beckham, and either Buxton or Kepler. I  may be rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic but may give us a spark.      

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    We always worried that Buxton couldn't stay healthy. This year a new wrinkle...he has been sort of injured all season long. He is not having a good season. He has hit some HR's, but he is also striking out a ton...nearly Sano-esque, which kills a lot of rallies. Since his knee is hurt, he loses more of his tools...base stealing and playing in the field everyday. And it also seems to be impacting his offense.

    So with Buck not being Buck, and Correa not being the Correa we paid for; and Kepler having a terrible season; and Polanco struggling; and the pitching less than stellar...can we realistically be disappointed that this is probably a 3rd place team in a weak division?

    Is it too late to recover? No. Did we expect to compete with the Dodgers? No, not too many teams this year have.

    Our only hope is the 17 games left with Chi and Cleve. If they can't win those, then they don't deserve post season anyway.

    This year's team is pretty flawed...better than last year, but not really worthy of winning a division. At least, for now.

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    2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    The Dodger lineup is frightening.  One all-star after another coming up to the plate.  And then they bring in relief pitchers with sub-2.0 ERAs.  They are on a pace for a 113-49 record.  Yeah, the Twins got swept but I think a whole lot of teams have suffered that same result.

    While this is true, it was players hitting under .200 (Muncy and Gallo) who really hurt the Twins last night.

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    48 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    Great question. Here's another - why is Tim Beckham on the roster? He can't hit and doesn't bring a lot of defensive value. understand the thinking, he hit in AAA so maybe he would hit in the bigs. Turned out to be wrong. Replace him with Palacios, play Palacios 1-2 days a week at SS with Correa DHing 1 and sitting 1. 

    Beckham would not be on the roster if Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, Garlick, Lewis and possibly Sano were not all injured.

    I also agree to give Palacios the shot over him at this point if it works in the lineup.

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    2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    The Dodger lineup is frightening.  One all-star after another coming up to the plate.  And then they bring in relief pitchers with sub-2.0 ERAs.  They are on a pace for a 113-49 record.  Yeah, the Twins got swept but I think a whole lot of teams have suffered that same result.

    They are 1 - 5 versus Pittsburgh

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    30 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    They are 1 - 5 versus Pittsburgh

    Regular season results are interesting, but it's a long season and no team approaches each series as must-win.  Come October, the perspectives change.  Don't expect Pittsburgh to succeed when both teams are trying their best.

    Of course, that's the frightening part, what if the Dodgers weren't trying their best against our Twins? :)

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    This was a bad start by Gray.

    When your starter gives up 4 runs (3 earned) and can't make it through 5 innings, you're not winning many games. If you expect the bullpen to go out there and pitch 4-1/3 innings giving up 0 runs, you're nuts. They'd be expected to give up at least 1 (2.07 ERA) and more likely 2 (4.14 ERA) over that span.

    This means the Twins would have needed to score 6-7 runs to win the game, reasonably. Gray had a couple starts in a row where he was lucky and the runners didn't cross the plate on him much, but that caught up to him a little.

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    All Contenders have multiple winning streaks and I'm a believer in winning streaks ,  

    Twins need a winning streak and it needs to start RIGHT NOW with the angels ....

    Twins had a winning streak in early part of the season  , WHAT HAPPENED  .... 

    players meeting is needed ,,,

    not a managers meeting that's for sure ( incapable to motivate ) ...

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    I thought Gray’s first four innings were fine — he actually did have good his stuff. The big caveat is I was not available to see the fifth inning. 

    Just because Gray gave up a couple hard hits in the fifth doesn’t tell me he needed to be pulled there. I’d be curious to hear from some careful observers about whether they felt Gray really needed to be pulled there. He had only thrown a dozen pitches in the inning and only 80 for the game. 

     

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    First inning was solid, after that, Gray struggled with control a bit and you can't be walking guys and putting yourself into 3-2 counts against a dangerous hitting and confident team on an obvious path to the playoffs like the Dodgers. They'll make pitchers pay.

     

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    Gray did not struggle in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. 

    Walks are going to happen, I'm not always bothered by those like some people, and I'm not bothered by giving up some runs to the Dodgers. When I skipped out after the fourth I thought Gray still had a lot of gas in the tank. I'm not buying the premise in the article that Gray ran out of steam and I'm definitely not buying how the Twins managed the starter and bullpen last night. 

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    5 hours ago, RpR said:

    Why wasn't Miranda DH and Urshela at third?

    That makes too much logical sense… and that speaks to Rocco’s style. Everything is always shuffled around and we wonder why the players can’t produce consistently. Maybe if they played consistently there would be some consistency in the fielding and the hitting.

    I would rather see everyone grinding under a division title is locked up, then we can look at some rest days to get prepped for the playoffs. Instead, we’re squandering our chances of making it in. 

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    I’ve been critical of Buxton, but I wouldn’t say he’s having a bad year. I’ve been critical of Rocco/FO, but I don’t know they are handling Buxton’s situation wrong, at least currently…and if this is “chronic”, which it sounds like.

    Buxton has never been a great hitter. His mid 800’s OPS is good…about as good as he’s going to be over larger samples…and it really hasn’t nosedived over this past month of being ‘more’ hurt and playing less. With regard to DL…it’s not like Kirilloff or even Larnach/Celestino/Cave are down in AAA. Currently, next in line is Contreras…so…is 2-3 days a week of Buxton DH’ing and playing a random/emergency inning of CF more valuable than having Contreras available 7 days a week? Probably yes. Same could be said regarding an idling Kepler. Might change when Larnach and Garlick come back?

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    12 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

    Rocco has been a head scratcher all season.  His lineup decisions have defied logic all year. He's the reason Twins are floundering and probably won't make playoffs.  He has poor in game management and more head scratching managing his pitching staff.  

    But Perkins said on air that Baldelli is a great manager of the bullpen! Hmmmmm. I guess he likes to do commentary,

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    4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    First inning was solid, after that, Gray struggled with control a bit and you can't be walking guys and putting yourself into 3-2 counts against a dangerous hitting and confident team on an obvious path to the playoffs like the Dodgers. They'll make pitchers pay.

     

    The Dodgers are going to make your pitchers pitch into 3-2 counts. So are the Yankees. That is their consistent game plan. Not to swing outside the zone and to make all pitchers throw a lot of pitches. Consistent game plan. Always. Pitchers try to keep not giving them pitches in the zone hoping they will chase. But when they won't, you finally have to give them something in the zone or keep trying and walk them. 

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    6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    All Contenders have multiple winning streaks and I'm a believer in winning streaks ,  

    Twins need a winning streak and it needs to start RIGHT NOW with the angels ....

    Twins had a winning streak in early part of the season  , WHAT HAPPENED  .... 

    players meeting is needed ,,,

    not a managers meeting that's for sure ( incapable to motivate ) ...

    And how exactly do you know this?

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    1 hour ago, cHawk said:

    And how exactly do you know this?

    Well if you go to Baseball Ref. there is a graph for each team wins/loss showing margin of defeat or victory.

    You see a lot of green (winning) bars in a row for the leading teams.

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    9 minutes ago, RpR said:

    Well if you go to Baseball Ref. there is a graph for each team wins/loss showing margin of defeat or victory.

    You see a lot of green (winning) bars in a row for the leading teams.

    Bro what? Did you even read the part of Blyleven2011’s post that I was responding to? It was the boldfaced text inside the quote.

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    1 minute ago, cHawk said:

    Bro what? Did you even read the part of Blyleven2011’s post that I was responding to? It was the boldfaced text inside the quote.

    Nope did not see the last sentence, but I agree with him.

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    2 hours ago, cHawk said:

    And how exactly do you know this?

    Winning series are nice  and maybe you are that person  that thinks that is all the matters ....

    It does matter but are they really  that exciting  , baseball should be exciting  and A long winning streak will generate alot of excitement about the team and what they might be capable of,,,, it should raise your hope  in the team and players that they can contend and not just be competitive  ( favley says competitive ,, I say contender )...

    A long winning streak or muti winning streak tells a fan and not just a twins fan but of mlb teams , what the team is made of , (  you have to do everything right and have just alittle luck  to keep the winning streak going  , you need discipline , fundamentals , and good coaching, ) .,,

    those that usually do  are contenders and win a division ,, 

    I have seen  many teams with multiple winning streaks  of ten games or more this year and most of those teams are leading there divisions except for Atlanta , Baltimore and Seattle... 

    You don't have to agree with this and that's OK  ,,, 

    I watch the twins or listen on the radio and don't miss many games unless out of the country  , but I also tune into other games played and watch the standings .... what's the longest winning streak in our central division  , twins have 1 small 7 game winning streak  ,,, What do the others have  ( Chicago  , Cleveland,  Detroit or Kansas city  ) ??? ,,,

    Look at the win / loss in the central  , its the worst  , twins were the last leader at the time to get to 50 wins this year  , my thought was pathetic  , even Milwaukee beat us to their 50th win   in their central  ....

    I live for spring training and the world series and everything in-between ....

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    39 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Winning series are nice  and maybe you are that person  that thinks that is all the matters ....

    It does matter but are they really  that exciting  , baseball should be exciting  and A long winning streak will generate alot of excitement about the team and what they might be capable of,,,, it should raise your hope  in the team and players that they can contend and not just be competitive  ( favley says competitive ,, I say contender )...

    A long winning streak or muti winning streak tells a fan and not just a twins fan but of mlb teams , what the team is made of , (  you have to do everything right and have just alittle luck  to keep the winning streak going  , you need discipline , fundamentals , and good coaching, ) .,,

    those that usually do  are contenders and win a division ,, 

    I have seen  many teams with multiple winning streaks  of ten games or more this year and most of those teams are leading there divisions except for Atlanta , Baltimore and Seattle... 

    You don't have to agree with this and that's OK  ,,, 

    I watch the twins or listen on the radio and don't miss many games unless out of the country  , but I also tune into other games played and watch the standings .... what's the longest winning streak in our central division  , twins have 1 small 7 game winning streak  ,,, What do the others have  ( Chicago  , Cleveland,  Detroit or Kansas city  ) ??? ,,,

    Look at the win / loss in the central  , its the worst  , twins were the last leader at the time to get to 50 wins this year  , my thought was pathetic  , even Milwaukee beat us to their 50th win   in their central  ....

    I live for spring training and the world series and everything in-between ....

    Agreed.  The Twins had a couple of medium streaks in April and May, and peaked on May 24th at 27-16.  Since then we are 30-37, and the longest winning streak we have had is 3.........once.  Tough to get excited or overly hopeful with that level of consistency.  We do play 23 out of our last 26 games in the division, so it will be decided in September.  There is still time, but there will have to be some urgency.  Here's hoping.  

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    12 hours ago, Mark G said:

    Agreed.  The Twins had a couple of medium streaks in April and May, and peaked on May 24th at 27-16.  Since then we are 30-37, and the longest winning streak we have had is 3.........once.  Tough to get excited or overly hopeful with that level of consistency.  We do play 23 out of our last 26 games in the division, so it will be decided in September.  There is still time, but there will have to be some urgency.  Here's hoping.  

    Sure would be nice to have some consistency and a 10 game winning streak  would give the players and fans momentum  to finish the season  ....

    I don't really care if they make the playoffs but do hope they win the division  because in 2021 we were last  and this year we could finish first  ,,, they have played better than my expectations in 2022 but the great start to season has given it a mirage like look ....

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    Play-offs , well, that would be blood pressure raisting praying that their losing streak stops at 18, but all I really, really want, is for them to do to the Yankees what Chicago did and take the series.

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    On 8/11/2022 at 10:57 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

    Great question. Here's another - why is Tim Beckham on the roster? He can't hit and doesn't bring a lot of defensive value. understand the thinking, he hit in AAA so maybe he would hit in the bigs. Turned out to be wrong. Replace him with Palacios, play Palacios 1-2 days a week at SS with Correa DHing 1 and sitting 1. 

    Bringing back Astudillo would have been a far, far, far, far better choice;  opposing pitchers would face, regardless of whether it was a hit or not, some one who WOULD put the bat on the ball, rather than strike out repeatedly.

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