Did Nelson Cruz Start to Decline at the End of 2020?

At the end of the short 2020 season, it seemed like Nelson Cruz might have finally been slowing down a bit. His numbers took a dip as the season progressed, but was age catching up to him or was he just in a bit of an unlucky slump?

Cruz played 53 total games in 2020, so here are his splits broken into three parts. The first 18 games, the next 18, then the final 17 to reach 53.

• First 18: .328/.392/.552 (.944), 4 HR, 27.0 K%, 6.8 BB%, 158 wRC+
  
• Next 18: .328/.451/.828 (1.278), 9 HR, 24 K%, 15.5 BB%, 226 wRC+
  
• Final 17: .250/.348/.417 (.764), 3 HR, 30.4 K%, 13.0 BB%, 108 wRC+
  

It's clear that Cruz dropped off quite a bit in the final third of the season, but maybe it was just due to some very bad luck. Looking at a couple of graphs, the numbers seem to go against each other.

Using xSLG, a metric that attempts to determine slugging percentage by taking exit velocity and launch angle and determining if a batted ball should be a single, double, triple, or home run, Cruz declined greatly near the end.

That's not great. What's weird is if you then think "well he must have stopped hitting the ball hard," you're wrong. He actually hit the ball harder as the season progressed.

That doesn't make much sense, so I dug further to see if I could find anything convincing.

Near the end his fly balls decreased but his line drives increased so that might explain the home run and slugging dip. That shouldn't be a concern, as long as he continues to hit the ball hard the fly balls will return.

Basically what I have concluded is a very boring, stupid answer to the question of whether or not Cruz is falling off due to age ... I don't think so?

The shortened season of 2020 didn't give us clear answers to this. The sample is just so small that the stats cancel each other out. The Twins obviously have faith that Cruz will continue to be a productive player, so we should trust them.

There will be a day that Cruz can no longer be a productive player, but we'll all be dead by then.

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