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  • Did Minnesota Just Summon the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come?


    Nick Nelson

    In the Charles Dickens classic, A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by three ghosts.

    The last of these phantoms, the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, is most fearsome of all. Why? Because it represents what the future holds for Scrooge if he does not change his ways.

    Scrooge awakens from this haunting experience a new man, steered back toward a righteous path by the vision of a dire future.

    I'm not saying the Twins traded for Chris Carter to make a similar impression on Miguel Sano.

    I'm only saying it'd make a lot of sense.

    Image courtesy of Andy Marlin, USA Today

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    I feel for Carter. Had he come along 10 years earlier, he might've been viewed much differently as an asset.

    Not so long ago, the thought of a 29-year-old who led the league in home runs being forced to settle for a one-year, $3.5 million deal (as Carter did with the Yankees last February) would've been inconceivable. Forty-one homers got you paid. Period.

    But it is the reality of today's MLB, where strikeout-prone sluggers who lack complementary offensive skills, or any kind of defensive value, are not commodities. Carter was toiling away in Triple-A before Minnesota traded cash considerations to the Angels for him on Wednesday.

    After signing (once again, in late February) a minor-league contract with the Halos, he launched 13 homers with a .600 slugging percentage at Salt Lake, but the big-league club had no use for him.

    Carter will head to the minors in his new organization, too, but maybe not for long. The Twins evidently see a possible need for him, which might speak to the level of concern around Joe Mauer.

    Surely it's coincidence that Carter arrives in Rochester just as Sano (likely) departs to meet the Twins in Seattle. Surely it is. But...

    If you could handpick a "Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come" equivalent for Miguel's Ebenezer – in all of baseball – it would be Chris Carter.

    That's no disrespect to Carter, whose 158 home runs would tie Brian Dozier for 12th in Twins history. His power is prodigious, and has been since he was a 20-year-old mashing 39 home runs at High-A. But his grievously high strikeout rates have suffocated the impact of his immense pop.

    To be fair, Carter's still playing ball, and has a chance to return to the majors soon. He's hardly a worst-case scenario in the grand scheme. But he was also never gifted with the innate talent of Sano, whose shine has greatly diminished since an incandescent debut in 2015.

    Even as one who tries to give Sano every benefit of the doubt, I can't ignore the overwhelming evidence of a player who has strayed badly off course. Underwhelming numbers, tons of missed time, off-the-field allegations, and reports from those around him of an inexplicably lackadaisical attitude.

    Sano's career strikeout rate (36.1%) is considerably higher than Carter's (33.3%). It was at an outrageous 40% before he went down this year. While Sano still looks reasonably capable at third base, he's undeniably trending the wrong direction.

    The majestic power won't go away. But neither has that of Carter, who now finds himself a journeyman at age 31. Perhaps, if they have a passing encounter on Thursday, Sano will make a note of it.

    I found this quote from Paul Molitor, while an MLB investigation floated over Sano's head at Twins camp, rather interesting:

    “I think the trend has been he’s figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture.

    “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying.”

    The decision to bring Carter aboard was obviously not motivated by a desire to send some overly dramatic message to Sano. But the 24-year-old, very much at a career crossroads, would be wise to take it as such.

    The thought of that future, given his infinitely higher potential, should scare the dickens out of him.

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    Other than size, I don't know what the comparison between Carter and Sano is all about. Carter was available at a nominal price in today's bloated market so the Twins grabbed him. End of story.

    Sano, in my opinion is injury prone period. His supporting structure can't support his bulk over extended periods of time and it will give out again. What is my evidence for this opinion? Simple observation.  The man looks like an accident waiting to happen especially running the bases.

    His one talent is that when (if) the ball runs into his bat it travels in the opposite direction very far. He does seem to be athletic which is good news/bad news since that is where the stress comes from.

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    Money talks.

    When will be the next opportunity for the Twins to "signal" to Sano via a salary negotiation / arbitration?

    Actually everyday when they aren’t offering him the sun, moon, venus, mars and half of jupiter to be a lifelong Twin.

     

    I think the Twins are waiting to see uranus shrink first.

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    Other than size, I don't know what the comparison between Carter and Sano is all about.

     The comparison is about a lot more than size - it is about their profile as hitters. They are both extreme three-true-outcome players. For his Career, Carter has homered, walked, or struck out in 50.3% of his plate appearances. Sano has done so in 53.6%. They have almost identical Home Run %'s (5.5% for Carter and 5.4% for Sano), and Sano walks and strikes out a little more.

     

    The point is that if Sano continues with his current approach, several years from now he'll look back and will have had the same results as Chris Carter - made $2M-$3M per year for a few years and then struggling to stay relevant.

     

    An extreme alternative to that future is Giancarlo Stanton, another three-true-outcome player at 45.9%.  The difference is that Stanton's Home Run% is higher than Sano's (6.4% vs 5.5%) and his K rate is lower (27.8% vs 36.1%).  I don't expect Sano to ever have output like Stanton's, but if he can get his K% down to 30% or so and up his HR% just a little bit, he's staring at a $100M+ payday.

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    Most of the time, it doesn't go to arbitration.

    And even if it does, the arbitration panel has to pick one of the submitted numbers.

    absolutely, but the process of making your case and validating it has created a defacto wage scale. Players with age, experience and performance indicators in these parameters make x, a year later make y, and so on. The team here at TD has been locked in for years.
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    Since the door has been opened, who would we bring in for Buxton's ghost?

    Mario Mendoza?  Maybe more position-relevant....Jordan Schafer?  Sam Fuld?  Peter Bourjos?

     

    The idea that player A has inferior attitude, work ethic, or self-discipline because he's "fat" or because he has a certain type of body language or even because someone said he did something bad...and that player B necessarily has superior attitude, work ethic, self-discipline because he's fit, or because he "looks like he's always trying really hard", or because "he never gets in trouble";   that failure for player B is acceptable, but not acceptable for player A...I feel this when I read some articles and/or responses here.  It's a dangerous and slippery slope...simply because we don't know.  We think we know.  But we don't know.

     

    Results are the only thing that matters and the only thing verifiable.  No matter how talented you are, it's hard to be a great MLB player.  It just is.

    Sam Fuld! How soon we forget.

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    Money talks.

    When will be the next opportunity for the Twins to "signal" to Sano via a salary negotiation / arbitration?

    The problem is that just the fact that he hit 24 home runs last year and with his potential, he's still going to make a LOT of money, enough to live like a king down in the Dominican. He has no incentive to get any better. He's already banked his 6 million dollar signing bonus and with a middling contract, by todays baseball standards, he's set for life.

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    They didn't need to sign Chris Carter to provide Sano with an example. If they want to point at a player and simply say "that's how hard you should be working." they can just point at Escobar. This is a guy who's nowhere near as physically talented as Sano but he gets playing time because he's earned the trust of the coaches by going out there, busting his butt and producing no matter where they put him or what they ask him to do. He also understands that he has to work for everything he wants. I'm losing confidence that Sano is ever going to put it all together because I'm not sure that he is capable of that type of introspective thought at this point.

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    I agree with Nick.

     

    If Sano doesn't get the strikeouts under control. 

     

    He will be Chris Carter. 

     

    He may even have to get a new drivers license or identification that says Chris Carter on it. 

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