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  • Der Schlager Kepler Keeps Climbing


    Seth Stohs

    In the top of the ninth inning on Wednesday afternoon in Detroit, Max Kepler hit his tenth home run of the season and of his brief major league career. It gave the Twins a 2-1 lead and they went on to their tenth win in fifteen games.

    Max Kepler has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball over the last four-to-six weeks. While his batting average remains just shy of .230, he has taken good at-bats, shown a lot of power (nine homers in the past 30 games) and driven in as many runs as anyone in baseball.

    Kepler was our choice for Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2015. It was a breakout season of sorts for the German outfielder. He made his debut in the big leagues late last September after leading the Chattanooga Lookouts to the Southern League championship following being named the league’s MVP.

    Image courtesy of Betsy Bissen

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    He became a huge prospect nationally. Now, he has too many at-bats to still be called a prospect. Through Wednesday’s game, Kepler has ten home runs in 196 major league plate appearances. He has quickly climbed the prospect ladder as he worked his way toward the big leagues. Now in the big leagues, he is climbing the list of top rookies in the American League, arguably behind only Detroit’s Michael Fullmer if Rookie of the Year voting were done today.

    Der Schlager (The Slugger) is also climbing the statistical leaderboard for German-born major league players. According to Baseball-Reference.com, there have been 43 big leaguers who were born in Germany. As of today, Kepler ranks 14th in plate appearances. His ten home runs are already fifth on the list.

    A brief look at the players born in Germany who have more plate appearances than him tells even more about the unique story of Max Kepler. When the Twins signed him for about three-quarters of a million dollars, it was the highest bonus ever given to a player from the country, or anywhere in Europe. Assuming health, Kepler will most likely set all of the records for players from Germany.

    Glenn Hubbard - Those of us old enough to remember when most Atlanta games were on TBS in the ‘80s remember the long-time second baseman fondly. He is the current leader in plate appearances with 5,122 over 12 seasons in the big leagues. He was born in Germany, the son of a father who was in the United States Air Force. He moved to the States when he was very young and went to school in California and Utah.

    Bill Kuehne - Born in the German Confederation city of Leipzig in the mid-1800s, Kuehne accumulated 4,423 plate appearances over his ten year career. He grew up in Chicago.

    Mike Blowers - Blowers was a power-hitter, mostly playing for the Mariners, during the years that Ken Griffey, Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner played in Seattle. He had 2,585 plate appearances over 11 big league seasons. Born in Wurzburg, he was the son of a US army dad and moved to the United States at a very young age.

    Jeff Baker - Baker spent parts of 11 seasons in the big leagues. He accumulated 1,958 plate appearances between 2005 and 2015 as a utility player (primarily). He also was born to a military family, his dad being in the Army.

    Fritz Mollwitz - A Coburg native, Mollwitz played in the big leagues between 1913 and 1919. He had 1,909 plate appearances.

    Charlie “Pretzel” Getzien - Getzien became the first MLB player from Germany when he debuted in 1884. A pitcher, there are multiple stories on how he earned the Pretzel nickname. Maybe it was based on his country of origin. Some believed it was because of his curveball, which people say curved at least twice, like a pretzel. He came to the plate 1,140 times over his nine big league seasons.

    Ben Koehler - Born in Schoerndorn, Koehler had 804 plate appearances in just two big league seasons. He played major league baseball in 1905 and 1906.

    Ron Gardenhire - The long-time Twins manager and coach was born in Butzbach, West Germany. He is the son of a Army man. He moved to the States as a very young child. He came to the plate 777 times between 1981 and 1985.

    Dutch Schliebner - The Berlin native spent just one season in the big leagues, 1923. He batted 587 times that year but never got another opportunity.

    Marty Krug - He played in 20 games for the Red Sox in 1912 and then got into 127 games for the Cubs in 1922. He accumulated a total of 571 plate appearances. Born in Koblenz, he left Germany when he was three years old.

    Heinz Becker - Between 1943 and 1947, Becker spent parts of four seasons in the big leagues. He had 412 plate appearances in MLB. He was born in Berlin but his family left Germany following World War I. They went to Venezuela before moving to the United States. He was the only player from Germany during World War II.

    Edwin Jackson - Jackson was recently called up to the big leagues again. He has spent parts of 14 seasons in the big leagues, starting in 2003. He has accumulated 412 career plate appearances.

    Next in line is Max Kepler, just shy of 200 plate appearances. Let’s guess, and hope, that Kepler stays healthy and productive the rest of 2016 and through 2017. He could reach 1,000 plate appearances by the end of 2017 which would rank eighth on this list.

    As far as the home run list, Kepler already ranks tenth, though it’ll take him a few years to climb the list. Bill Kuehne (25), Jeff Baker (54), Glenn Hubbard (70) and Mike Blowers (78) are the four German-born players ahead of Kepler on the list.

    So what we see from the list of players born in Germany, they fit into a couple of categories.

    1. Players born in Germany before World War 1.
    2. Players whose family left Germany when they were young.
    3. Players born to military families who were based in Germany for their birth.

    In some cases, players fit into a couple of these categories.

    Kepler is unique in many ways, but he is certainly one of the first in nearly a century to be raised in Germany. Though his mother is from the United States and he visited family in Texas on vacations, Kepler grew up in Berlin. When he signed, his only real baseball experience came in Germany.

    Kepler signed in July of 2009, the same day the Twins signed Jorge Polanco. Miguel Sano was signed in October of the same year. That’s an impressive class filled with a lot of potential.

    Kepler has the potential to be the greatest player ever born in Germany. He may already be the greatest player who ever grew up in Germany.

    And he is the first player from Germany ever to grace the cover of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook..

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    is the rookie of the year based on the future, or what a player did? It's almost like it hurts some peoples' feelings to compliment players on other teams.......maybe not you, but I've read enough here....

     

     

    It absolutely should be based on what the player did, not what he 'might have done' with more luck or something like that. 

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    Tyler Naquin is far and away the leader right now. He's been great. What I'm saying is Kepler is right there with every other rookie hitter, and that's with a really low number of his hits falling in. There's still 70 or so games to go.

     

    I'd have to disagree. Fulmer is the winner in a landslide right now. 

     

    In terms of WAR, Kepler is second only to Naquin for hitters (1.3 to 1.2). Not too hard to imagine Kepler passing Naquin in that category before the season ends. 

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    I'd have to disagree. Fulmer is the winner in a landslide right now. 

     

    In terms of WAR, Kepler is second only to Naquin for hitters (1.3 to 1.2). Not too hard to imagine Kepler passing Naquin in that category before the season ends. 

    You must be talking B-Reference WAR, right?

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    Yeah, I don't know how anyone can argue anything other than Fulmer right now.

     

    Kepler might be the best rookie hitter though.

    Fangraphs WAR has Naquin at 2.2 and Fulmer at 1.8. I'm not saying WAR is the final answer, but if it's close, I'm usually going to lean towards the position player. They have Kepler at only .5 WAR.

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    I could seriously care less about using WAR to judge pitcher vs. hitter.  That to me, again, is misusing the statistic.

     

    I don't understand. WAR is basically just a re-denominated count of runs created and prevented.

     

    If a pitcher saves 10 runs over replacement with his pitching, and a position player saves 5 with defense and creates 5 with offense, it seems very reasonable to say their contribution was roughly equal.

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    I don't understand. WAR is basically just a re-denominated count of runs created and prevented.

     

    If a pitcher saves 10 runs over replacement with his pitching, and a position player saves 5 with defense and creates 5 with offense, it seems very reasonable to say their contribution was roughly equal.

     

    Pitching WAR and hitting WAR are composed of entirely different measures of performance.  If you want to use WAR in this case, the only way you should do that is by saying something to the effect of "Kepler is much better by WAR relative to other rookie hitters compared to how much better Fulmer is by WAR relative to other pitchers"  Otherwise you completely derailed in your use of the stat.  

     

    And most of you are completely misusing it because you're comparing something barely better than saying 3.23 ERA < .350 OBP.  Barely.

    Edited by TheLeviathan
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    Great athlete, good student of the game. Kepler appears to be gradually gaining confidence in all aspects of his game at the mlb level. Unlike Rosario's first season, Kepler's approach at the plate is far more cautious, willing to take a walk, with a much smaller swing zone. This bodes very well for avoiding the sophomore slump suffered by Rosario and Vargas, both of whom were sent to AAA to reduce their high K rates. I don't see a major weakness in Kepler's hitting approach. His swing is quick, flat, and powerful. He appears very poised, before and after the swing. He doesn't fall off against lefties, and has been hitting righties about the same. 

     

    In the field, Kepler is getting solid after some shaky moments early on. He is much better now at playing the carom off the right field wall, and he is getting very good at measuring his angles to fly balls. He still looks a little sloppy fielding grounders, but as he accumulates practice reps, I expect his grounder flubs will become rare. His arm appears to be about average, though I think his accuracy will improve on his throws to second, so he might catch a few guys trying to stretch singles. 

     

    On the bases, Kepler so far has been pretty conservative, but his minor league career showed potential. He seems to be a technique-oriented player, so I suspect he will learn to steal bases about the way we saw with young Joe Mauer. Not as adventurous as Rosario, but probably a better percentage. 

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    I think if we look at his spray chart, we might be able to identify why Kepler's BABiP is so low.  Focus on the blue dots in the OF and the plethora of green dots at the 2B/1B area.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=12144&position=OF&type=battedball

     

    Okay I looked, and I see a big cluster of ground outs to the right side of the infield. Is your interpretation that his babip is not low because of bad luck but because he grounds out too much?

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    Okay I looked, and I see a big cluster of ground outs to the right side of the infield. Is your interpretation that his babip is not low because of bad luck but because he grounds out too much?

    I'm saying, in this instance, seems the amount of easy fly balls as opposed to line drives (on top of the many grounders to the 1B-2B side) suggest his BABIP is a product of his swing more than just bad luck.  

     

    So you know, I'm a huge Kepler fan, basically since we got him, so there's no trying to prove one thing over another here, just thinking that in this instance, it has more to do with his swing than anything else. BTW, his BABIP is improving.

    Edited by jimmer
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    Pitching WAR and hitting WAR are composed of entirely different measures of performance.  If you want to use WAR in this case, the only way you should do that is by saying something to the effect of "Kepler is much better by WAR relative to other rookie hitters compared to how much better Fulmer is by WAR relative to other pitchers"  Otherwise you completely derailed in your use of the stat.  

     

    And most of you are completely misusing it because you're comparing something barely better than saying 3.23 ERA < .350 OBP.  Barely.

     

    The measures aren't entirely different, they are based on runs created/prevented against replacement level.

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    The measures aren't entirely different, they are based on runs created/prevented against replacement level.

     

    OBP and WHIP both measure how often you are/are not creating base runners.  You like comparing pitchers and hitters using them too?  

     

    C'mon.  I kind of like WAR and you're making me resent the stat by how erroneously you're using it.

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