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  • Clock's Ticking: The Tyler Kinley Decision


    Cody Christie

    Opening Day is just a few short days away. For many players, the fate of their careers could be on the line. Twins fans have already seen the club make a decision on Kennys Vargas and there will be other player decisions in the days to come.

    For Tyler Kinley and other Rule 5 Draft picks, the yet to be made decisions will help determine which organizations they will play for in the coming season. Rule 5 picks must stay on the 25-man roster or the disabled list for the entire season or be offered back to their former organization.

    Kinley will certainly be packing his bags but will his final destination be Minnesota or back to Miami?

    Image courtesy of Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

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    Miami left Kinley unprotected this offseason following an up and down minor league season. He posted a 1.98 ERA at High-A but struggled to a 5.19 ERA after being bumped up to Double-A. There were some control issues as he averaged 3.7 walks per nine innings but his 12.7 strikeouts per nine was tough to ignore.

    Over the winter, Kinley pitched in the Dominican Winter League. In 14 appearances, he posted a 0.47 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and a 32 to 11 strikeout to walk ratio. During one stretch, he had an 18-inning scoreless streak. It’s hard not to be impressed with those numbers even if it is a limited sample size.

    Kinley knows his time with Minnesota could be fleeting. “I really try not to think about it. I try to just think about preparing myself the best I can and trying to go out and execute the plan,” he told the Associated Press. “Just to establish myself as a reliable bullpen arm, not only to the coaching staff and front office’s eyes, but to the players as well.”

    Twins bullpen coach Eddie Guardado likens Kinley to a former Rule 5 pick. “Johan [santana] was willing to work and get better. Kinley reminds me of that. I’m not saying starting-wise, but he wants to learn, works hard, [a] very good person.”

    Control issues have continued to follow Kinley this spring. In the 10 innings pitched, he has six walks and a hit-by-pitch. According to the Star Tribune, Kinley’s fastball was clocked at 99 miles per hour earlier in the spring. Pair that with his 91 mile per hour slider and he could provide a power arm the Twins need in the bullpen.

    Minnesota’s addition of Lance Lynn added another wrinkle to fitting Kinley on the roster. The Twins were expected to start the season with a four-man rotation because of additional off-days worked into the schedule. This could allow for an eight man bullpen. Phil Hughes might be pushed to the bullpen to make way for Lynn in the rotation.

    As far as starters go, the Twins are looking at Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios and Lance Lynn. Hughes could serve as a fifth starter or a long-man out of the bullpen. Some of the locks in the bullpen are Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, Tayler Rogers, Zach Duke and Ryan Pressly.

    Trevor Hildenberger has struggled this spring so he could be sent down to start the year. He was critical to the Twins in the second half of last season so this might be enough to keep him on the roster. Players like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Tyler Duffey and Gabriel Moya all have at least one option remaining. Things might have been made clear on Thursday with multiple bullpen pieces being optioned to Rochester. This could make Kinley the last player to fit into the bullpen.

    For the Twins and Kinley, the clock is ticking. One way or another a decision needs to be made.

    Do you think Kinley stays with the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    Again, the MLB site transactions glossary is really just a summary / overview. Think of it like Wikipedia. Nothing wrong with it, but it omits a lot of the technical nitty gritty.

     

    The Cub Reporter site I linked is an incredible resource in that regard.

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    I vote send Hildenberger down. He's had a rough spring and could gain some confidence back in AAA. Keep Moya and Kinley on the big roster to start the season. I don't understand the whole purpose of giving these guys the chance to prove themselves in spring training, perform better than others, and then they get sent down anyway. Are all organizations like this or is it just the Twins way?

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    Again, the MLB site transactions glossary is really just a summary / overview. Think of it like Wikipedia. Nothing wrong with it, but it omits a lot of the technical nitty gritty.

     

    The Cub Reporter site I linked is an incredible resource in that regard.

    The official rules are on-line, for anyone who doesn't want to accept someone else's summary.

     https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/MajorLeagueRules.pdf

     

    If you go down to Rule 6, which logically enough follows Rule 5, the procedure for removing the player from the major league roster is detailed. There is no mention there of trading. Presumably what teams do, when a trade is desired, is to go through the entire process (mainly the Waiver process), and then the player is returned to the original team in exchange for half the draft price. At that point, the two teams can proceed with a trade (perhaps with the half-price money going back where it came from).

     

    As has been said in multiple ways, above, this is somewhat fanciful - a player that no other team wants via waivers probably isn't worth trading for anyway. But it could happen.

     

    Oh, and the Cub Reporter site seems to have given a good summary. No quarrel there. It's just, the actual rules aren't really that opaque.

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    BTW, this article from the STrib in 2011 mentions that Scott Diamond cleared waivers before the Billy Bullock trade could be made: http://www.startribune.com/twins-deal-prospect-to-keep-diamond/118817039/

    "Diamond was selected by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft and had to remain with the major league club or be offered back to Atlanta for half the $50,000 fee. If a team wants to keep a Rule 5 pick and send him to the minors, that player must clear waivers and then the team has to work a trade with the club that previously had him."

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    I vote send Hildenberger down. He's had a rough spring and could gain some confidence back in AAA. Keep Moya and Kinley on the big roster to start the season. I don't understand the whole purpose of giving these guys the chance to prove themselves in spring training, perform better than others, and then they get sent down anyway. Are all organizations like this or is it just the Twins way?

    That's not, or at least shouldn't be, the purpose of ST.

    It's practice to get warmed up for the season. It shouldn't be an audition.

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    That's not, or at least shouldn't be, the purpose of ST.

    It's practice to get warmed up for the season. It shouldn't be an audition.

    While Spring stats should be taken with multiple huge grains of salt, it seems to me that this view takes it a little too far. Management wants to see how players operate under all different kinds of pressure, given that the ultimate goal is to win the WS where the pressure is at its highest. Telling all the players that their job may ride on how they perform in Spring, and backing that up with the occasional reward/demotion for others to see, is part of that. If a guy stinks in Spring, with an excuse of just getting warmed up for the season, I see nothing wrong with sending him to AAA and being told to show he's ready there, if management chooses that route, taking his entire body of work into account of course. As with most things in management, it's a balancing act, dependent in some part on the personality of the individual player, and in some part on the group. You don't want management to be tyrants, you don't want them to run a country club.

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    Spring training matters. Spring training data available to us is meaningless.

     

    The eyes of a skilled staff seeing these players everyday matters. Jobs can and should be won in spring training. From our end, we have no means to argue one way or another who should be on the roster based on spring. We certainly shouldn’t use the small and skewed sample we see in the stat lines.

     

    Performance in spring training matters and I hope the Twins have a staff skilled in evaluating that performance because there will be little correlation to performance in the data we can see.

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    While Spring stats should be taken with multiple huge grains of salt, it seems to me that this view takes it a little too far. Management wants to see how players operate under all different kinds of pressure, given that the ultimate goal is to win the WS where the pressure is at its highest. Telling all the players that their job may ride on how they perform in Spring, and backing that up with the occasional reward/demotion for others to see, is part of that. If a guy stinks in Spring, with an excuse of just getting warmed up for the season, I see nothing wrong with sending him to AAA and being told to show he's ready there, if management chooses that route, taking his entire body of work into account of course. As with most things in management, it's a balancing act, dependent in some part on the personality of the individual player, and in some part on the group. You don't want management to be tyrants, you don't want them to run a country club.

    Well, I disagree. Mainly because in baseball, even the greatest players to ever play the game go through extended slumps, relatively often.

     

    I'd make my roster decisions based on talent, tools, and track record in actual games. Spring Training would have almost no input in my roster decisions.

    That's how I'd do it, that may not be how it's actually done.

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    Well, I disagree. Mainly because in baseball, even the greatest players to ever play the game go through extended slumps, relatively often.

    I'd make my roster decisions based on talent, tools, and track record in actual games. Spring Training would have almost no input in my roster decisions.

    That's how I'd do it, that may not be how it's actually done.

    Joe Mauer isn’t winning or losing a job based on spring training.

     

    The backup outfielder, a bullpen job or two, the backup catcher...these are often a different situation. There is a competition going on in ST, and those jobs will be won or lost based on talent, tools, and track record, AND on how those players perform in spring. As mentioned above, spring includes not only the games, but over a month of daily workouts and practice from which the staff can judge.

     

    How else would you do that?

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    Joe Mauer isn’t winning or losing a job based on spring training.

    The backup outfielder, a bullpen job or two, the backup catcher...these are often a different situation. There is a competition going on in ST, and those jobs will be won or lost based on talent, tools, and track record, AND on how those players perform in spring. As mentioned above, spring includes not only the games, but over a month of daily workouts and practice from which the staff can judge.

    How else would you do that?

    Dowsing rods, my good man.

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    My guess is that Kinley has made it this far, he's going to stick around for a month and if he does ok he'll get another month. If he does well for a couple of months then he's here for the duration and goes to AAA next year. Just my guess at this point.

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    My guess is that Kinley has made it this far, he's going to stick around for a month and if he does ok he'll get another month. If he does well for a couple of months then he's here for the duration and goes to AAA next year. Just my guess at this point.

    That seems like a high price to pay just to get another reliever at AAA, especially at Kinley's age. I think the threshold for Kinley has to be a bit higher -- he needs to establish himself as a MLB bullpen asset pretty soon.

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    Joe Mauer isn’t winning or losing a job based on spring training.

     

    The backup outfielder, a bullpen job or two, the backup catcher...these are often a different situation. There is a competition going on in ST, and those jobs will be won or lost based on talent, tools, and track record, AND on how those players perform in spring. As mentioned above, spring includes not only the games, but over a month of daily workouts and practice from which the staff can judge.

     

    How else would you do that?

    Of course.

    But I'm referencing posts that are making judgements based on ST stats, not those other things.

    And to me, ST stats have no meaning whatsoever. Not even as a tie breaker, or for the 24th or 25th guy.

     

    To be clear, if it's me, I'm using everything except ST stats to make the decision. All the things I listed, and all the things you listed.

    I honestly would make sure I didn't even know what the ST stats were, just to make sure I wasn't subconsciously influenced by them.

    I wish they wouldn't even keep track of them.

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    My guess is that Kinley has made it this far, he's going to stick around for a month and if he does ok he'll get another month. If he does well for a couple of months then he's here for the duration and goes to AAA next year. Just my guess at this point.

    If he's good enough to stick all year on a playoff contender, I'm not sure why they'd put him in AAA next year, as a 28 year old.

    28 year olds in AAA are career minor leaguers, they don't have a future in mlb.

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    Again, the MLB site transactions glossary is really just a summary / overview. Think of it like Wikipedia. Nothing wrong with it, but it omits a lot of the technical nitty gritty.

    The Cub Reporter site I linked is an incredible resource in that regard.

    We're just going to have to agree to disagree. They even discussed how the twins could make a deal with Miami to keep Kinley less than an hour ago on the game broadcast

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    We're just going to have to agree to disagree. They even discussed how the twins could make a deal with Miami to keep Kinley less than an hour ago on the game broadcast

    Just as an example of how I said the MLB.com transactions glossary is clearly not intended to be a detailed rulebook, take this passage from the Options entry: "If a player misses an entire option year due to injury or expends his third option year before he has completed five professional seasons (Major Leagues and Minor Leagues included), he can receive a fourth option year." By that definition, Kennys Vargas should not have been eligible for a 4th option year last year, as he had not missed any seasons to injury and already had at least 7 professional seasons (2010-2016). But we know that he was eligible for the 4th option. And if you read the details in the actual rule book as linked by ashburyjohn, or at the Cub Reporter site I linked, you will see that the actual definition of "complete" or "full" professional season means at least 90 days active (with some qualifiers about which disabled list stints count, and which do not) -- thus most rookie league seasons don't count toward that number. So Vargas WAS eligible. The MLB transactions glossary wasn't wrong, it was just a general overview without the details.

     

    Similarly, the Rule 5 entry you quoted is basically true -- you can trade for a Rule 5 player and assign him to the minor leagues -- but it omits a few details for the sake of brevity, like the fact that he has to clear waivers first. Broadcasters and reporters often omit these details too, about complex but relatively minor transactions. (And Rule 5 might be one of the most complex, yet most minor, rules in MLB :) )

     

    Sorry to seem like a stickler! I respect any and all opinions on this board, but I try to provide the most accurate transaction rules where I can.

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