Changing Timeline: Is It Time To Start Worrying About Santana?

I’m not too worried. It’s the last year of his deal so if he comes back and is horrible they will just 60day DL and go with hopefully not Hughes.

 

Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...

I don't think Falvey/Levine anticipated that Santana would need surgery in February after his post-season MRI came back clean. Santana started pitching again in February and felt discomfort, leading to the surgery. I suppose it's possible the front office knew something about Ervin's finger I that everyone else didn't, but I doubt it.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm not worried. Even if it takes until June 1 for him to be ready to go, that just means he'll be fresher for the stretch run later this summer.

 

If this stretches out longer than that, I might reserve the right to change my perspective.

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.  I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

I’m not sure if it gets to “likely” because that depends on ones personal definition but there are a lot of red flags for Santana right now.

 

-he’s 35

-out performed his peripherals last couple of years

-unsustainable BABIP and strand rates last season

-fly ball pitcher in middle of fly ball revolution

-his first game action will come against teams in mid-season form

-his arm has been heavily used and he will still be playing with a partially torn ligament

-coming back from injury (and a fairly major one IMO considering how integral that finger is and how poorly it’s gone so far)

 

Does that get one to likely? Maybe. Maybe not. As I said earlier it depends on ones definition. However let’s not pretend there no “facts or evidence” suggesting it’s possible.

 

Personally, if the choice was Santana or one of the field, I’d take the field.

 

They’ve had it listed that way for ages and it’s wrong.

 

Just to confirm, I had done some research and found that Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in 2014 when the contract was signed:

 

https://www.twincities.com/2014/12/12/twins-signing-ervin-santana-about-more-than-the-arm/

 

Santana’s deal includes a fifth-year vesting option based on innings pitched — either 200 in 2018 or a combined 400 in 2017-18 — but it does not include a no-trade provision.

 

I would trust Beradino over all of the other sources as I think he may have actually spoken to someone vs just being an aggregator of news articles written by others.  Are you saying Mike is wrong as well?

 

The last time Trevor May started a baseball game Barack Obama was President.

 

Fernando Romero has pitched one game above AA and last year, at AA, posted a 4.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35.

 

I don't care what your definition of likely is, they aren't "likely" to outpitch a guy that has posted an ERA+ over 100 all three years with the Twins.  Is it impossible?  Of course not.  But likely is just nonsense.

I’ll be very surprised if Santana has an ERA+ >100 and pitches more than 100 innings this season.

 

The last time Trevor May started a baseball game Barack Obama was President.

 

Fernando Romero has pitched one game above AA and last year, at AA, posted a 4.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35.

 

I don't care what your definition of likely is, they aren't "likely" to outpitch a guy that has posted an ERA+ over 100 all three years with the Twins.  Is it impossible?  Of course not.  But likely is just nonsense.

At this point due to injury, a late season start and age I am not any more confident that he would outperform Romero or May this season.

But Thyrlos made a statement that Romero and May were better than Santana and Santana was going to be irrelevant this season anyway. I completely disagree with that. The injury changes things though.

Look, I'm not a doctor...its only a nickname...but I'm disappointed. Not worried, just disappointed. I get a pitcher's hand/fingers are important, but thjs was a clean-up procedure, yes? Not TJ, not a labrum or a ripped up knee. It may take time get a "feel" for everything again, as well as build up full arm strength, but this guy is a proven commodity. He's had a solid career, and has been good to excellent since joining the Twins. He had one of his best season's last year while pitching with discomfort in his finger. He is now, from reports I've seen, gripping the ball and playing catch. Call me an optimist if you want, but I'd think when he gets cranked up, eventually, having a healthier finger could make him more effective than last season.

 

I am very disappointed he's going to miss the first month, maybe two, if this season. And maybe he even struggles a couple times out of the gate, but I'm just not worried at this point.

As to May...since he's been brought up here...he's been a hard luck case, and probably mishandled in his Twins career. I'm not trying to open up a can of worms again, but he was showing signs of rounding in to a nice, solid SP a couple of years ago when Gardenhire moved him to the pen over Pelfrey. His back issues may or may not have been related to adjusting to the pen in 2016, but it happened nonetheless. But he was looking really good in ST 2017 before his elbow gave out. Hell, he even finished his inning with his elbow shredded.

 

Is he going to come back and save the day? Probably not. And we all know it takes some time to get the full feel of your pitches back. But he's got some quality stuff, and some potential still. Potential to help this season and even more next, like Pineda. Don't count on him, but don't dismiss him.

Absolutely, injuries are wildcards that shake your confidence. Im making no grand predictions about Santana, more asserting just how grand a prediction it is to think May or Romero are going to jump from their last season to what was stated in this thread.

I, and Thrylos based on his previous statements, have very different views on Romero than you do. He had a 2.60 ERA, >9 K/9, and a >50% ground ball rate up until his last 3 starts last year where he utterly fell apart. To me that is clearly fatigue, which is also what we saw with Berrios a few years back. Romero is much better than the “4+ ERA” guy you are portraying him as, IMO.

 

To get back to my original point, there absolutely is credible evidence to suggest that Romero or May will be better than Santana.

 

I, and Thrylos based on his previous statements, have very different views on Romero than you do. He had a 2.60 ERA, >9 K/9, and a >50% ground ball rate up until his last 3 starts last year where he utterly fell apart. To me that is clearly fatigue, which is also what we saw with Berrios a few years back. Romero is much better than the “4+ ERA” guy you are portraying him as, IMO.

To get back to my original point, there absolutely is credible evidence to suggest that Romero or May will be better than Santana.

Your final sentence is 'will be' and Thrylos stated now. I am cautiously optimistic that Romero goes the Liriano route (with the injury risk) because his upside his really high (not just a 4+ ERA guy) but I wouldn't say that he is better than Santana now (minus Santana's injury). Santana wasn't going to be irrelevant (also stated by Thrylos) this season. He might be now though and that is a loss to the rotation.

  

Your final sentence is 'will be' and Thrylos stated now. I am cautiously optimistic that Romero goes the Liriano route (with the injury risk) because his upside his really high (not just a 4+ ERA guy) but I wouldn't say that he is better than Santana now (minus Santana's injury). Santana wasn't going to be irrelevant (also stated by Thrylos) this season. He might be now though and that is a loss to the rotation.

The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence.

 

So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.

 

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.  I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

 

  
The only argument that I am making is in rebuttal to Leviathans quote below about there being no facts or evidence to support the idea that Romero or May are likely to be better. I think the thing I am really struggling with is the absolutism in his statement. It’s absurd. There is evidence.

So again, we may disagree over the definition of “likely”, is it 25% or 75% chance, but to claim there is no chance is my problem.
 

You do realize that this entire debate started with Thrylos's bold claim that they are better than Ervin?

 

He didn't even leave it open as a possibility that Ervin had any value to this year's team due to the two mentioned pitchers AND the rest of the rotation. That is the flat out absurdity of the statement. This rotation is much improved and there are actually good reinforcements available (like those mentioned) but the rotation isn't that good.