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  • Carlos Correa Saved the Twins Offseason


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins did the unthinkable when they swayed Carlos Correa from the New York Mets and brought him back for the 2023 season and beyond. The fact that a potential Hall of Fame talent has been added to the roster is nothing short of exceptional. If there is a problem, it’s that had he not been added, the offseason would have been a disaster.

     

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    Despite what we experienced following the lockout prior to the 2022 Major League Baseball season, there is typically not a set window for free agents to sign. Although plenty are off the board at this point, it’s not as though the offseason was over for the Minnesota Twins. The problem is that their entire offseason hinged solely on Carlos Correa returning.

    It was clear from the jump that Minnesota prioritized Correa, as they should have. Their initial 10-year deal for $285 million left plenty to be desired, but could have been reflective of their comfort with his long-term aging process. At any rate, that number was never initially going to get it done.

    Sure, it took both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backing out of their deals to bring him in, but that doesn’t matter. No one in the Twins front office cares how it happened, and fans shouldn’t either. For the front office, there was little way to explain themselves out of it not getting done, however.

    Early on this winter the Twins dealt for former Cincinnati Reds shortstop Kyle Farmer. He was seen as a baseline in order to give Minnesota a fallback option. They acted similarly a season ago when they swapped Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa. In and of itself, there is nothing wrong with that type of move. The problem is that Minnesota wasn’t good enough with Correa last year, and they almost certainly would not have been without him going forward.

    Yes, injuries ravaged the 2022 Twins. There is plenty of reason to believe in a healthy Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton being a substantial upgrade to Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. That line of thinking assumes that future injury won’t occur however, and barring Nick Paparesta being some kind of witch doctor, there will still be situations to deal with.

    In waiting on Correa, and ultimately missing when he was originally out there, the Twins were left out on their only other shortstop target Dansby Swanson. They never made a strong play for Xander Bogaerts (which wound up working out as the Padres spent crazy money) and they didn’t seriously pursue Trea Turner either. With plenty of bats gone, options at shortstop having dwindled, and even more arms off the board there was little place to pivot.

    There is no denying that Correa being back with the Twins is a great thing, but that only gives Minnesota an opportunity to advance things further. They must figure out a way to move the outfield pieces around. Max Kepler has drawn significant trade interest, and Joey Gallo should be assumed to produce at a similar or better clip. Finding another quality pitcher is a must, and that has never looked likely to come from the free agent market. 

    Correa’s acquisition means the Twins are roughly where they were a season ago. Christian Vazquez is an upgrade on Gary Sanchez, but there have been no other moves that finish the job. The bullpen still needs a piece, and the front office has money to spend. With Correa now on board, the rest of the offseason plan can continue to roll in motion.

    Starting the season with Farmer at shortstop, questionable dollars spent to reach a realistic payroll threshold, and an offseason of watching talent sign elsewhere would have been nothing short of a nightmare. At points it was suggested a logical pivot to piecing out parts may have been necessary. That level of uncertainty should have never been a potential thought, and while the front office probably wouldn’t have agreed, their lack of options made it a legitimate question.

    We haven’t yet reached the point of this being a slam dunk offseason, but it certainly has the potential to be all because the Twins got one guy back.

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    There's been multiple posts in here about the front office "getting lucky", not giving them credit for having Correa land in their laps etc. It seems to boil down to if you already didn't like the front office, don't like the style of baseball, and/or refer to management running things via spreadsheet, then they get no credit or approbation for signing Correa. The offseason wasn't saved. It's all still terrible. That's pretty muddled thinking to me.

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    Re-signing a player you had, who wanted to stay, that left to go to two other teams that they rejected due to health concerns and then falls into your lap a 2nd time hardly saves an off-season. Why does anyone expect him to be better than he was last year? His 2022 season was about average for him when he's healthy. Is everyone expecting him to suddenly be a 200 Hits, 30 HR, 100RBI guy, when he has never ever come close to in his 8 year career? His salary is that of a superstar, which he isn't. 

    The deals on two players that have saved this off-season so far are Farmer and Vazquez, they have improved the team over last year, not Correa.

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    Yes the Twins did well in getting Correa.  Hopefully the cost wasn't too high so as not to be able to secure players needed in other areas.  Farmer is a good addition.  Urshela may have been a poor substraction.  I noticed someone said Farmer had more RBIs than Urshela.  That is true.  It is also true that Farmer had more RBIs than Correa.  Does that mean anything?  Not really.  Just be careful comparing stats.  Signing Correa should be considered a step in molding the roster into a competitive contender.  Hoping the injured players come back AND produce is very risky planning.  As is counting on starting pitching staff full of injuries and very limited MLB experience.  Relying on a manager that has good analytic skills but no managerial skills is also foolhearty.  Rocco is a mediocre manager that oversees very boring baseball.  I'm hoping that he improves as well or 2023 will be a dismal repeat.  After 2021 we were told it was unlucky baseball and poor seasons by key players that lead to an awful season.  2022 has been blamed on injuries.  2023 better show significant improvement or start finding excuses.  Correa or no I think most of us want a playoff caliber team with hopes of finally winning a playoff game.  Go Correa!  Go Twins.

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    2 hours ago, rv78 said:

    Re-signing a player you had, who wanted to stay, that left to go to two other teams that they rejected due to health concerns and then falls into your lap a 2nd time hardly saves an off-season. Why does anyone expect him to be better than he was last year? His 2022 season was about average for him when he's healthy. Is everyone expecting him to suddenly be a 200 Hits, 30 HR, 100RBI guy, when he has never ever come close to in his 8 year career? His salary is that of a superstar, which he isn't. 

    The deals on two players that have saved this off-season so far are Farmer and Vazquez, they have improved the team over last year, not Correa.

    Correa is projected to be the 17th most valuable position player in MLB this year. Ahead of Freddie Freeman, Francisco Lindor and behind Nolan Arenado and Jose Ramirez. I'd call all those guys superstars. 

    Don't like projections? Okay, last year he was tied for 44th overall in MLB for most valuable player regardless of position with some guy named Max Scherzer and Dylan Cease. 

    You'd have to have a pretty narrow definition of superstar for Correa not to be in there. If your definition only includes the traditional 200 hits, 30HR, 100 RBI guys, then there was literally no one who fit that definition last year.

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    Correa’s acquisition means the Twins are roughly where they were a season ago

    I disagree with this framing a lot. Even before Correa resigned, the Twins were better than they were last year. Getting key pieces back from injuries counts. Getting back Maeda, Alcala, presumably healthy Kirilloff etc makes us a better team, as does finally establishing depth from within with Varland, SWR, and perhaps Julien and Lee too. 

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    Guys that play with reckless abandon get wrecked and abandoned. Carlos Correa is reminded of that by a plate in his ankle. Byron Buxton knows that by an early career spent too much on the injured list. Both men know that their careers, worth many millions of dollars, depend on avoiding some of those massive collisions, by playing with more craft and less crazy. 

    Thus, I am okay with both men declining to challenge any stolen base records. I am also okay with them declining to collide with walls or other players. Their best value is in their gloves, throwing arms, and bats, along with their expert knowledge of how to win ballgames. I am fine with fewer highlights and more wins. 

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    6 hours ago, rv78 said:

    Re-signing a player you had, who wanted to stay, that left to go to two other teams that they rejected due to health concerns and then falls into your lap a 2nd time hardly saves an off-season. Why does anyone expect him to be better than he was last year? His 2022 season was about average for him when he's healthy. Is everyone expecting him to suddenly be a 200 Hits, 30 HR, 100RBI guy, when he has never ever come close to in his 8 year career? His salary is that of a superstar, which he isn't. 

    The deals on two players that have saved this off-season so far are Farmer and Vazquez, they have improved the team over last year, not Correa.

    This is an odd take. How many "superstars" do you think there are in the MLB? If it's more than 5-10, Correa is one of them. 

    He had the 23rd highest WAR in baseball among position players - essentially the same WAR as Juan Soto, Lindor, Carlos Rodon, and Altuve. Are those players superstars? 

    He's not Judge or Ohtani, but he's right there in that next group and plays a super-premium position.

     

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