Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier

 

I don't doubt he was told this by his Twins sources, but as my source (who has been right every step of the way other than original timing) 

 

That's a stretch. The original claim was a done deal within 24 hours. Now a trade may not happen at all. Completely different situation than what was claimed. 

 

All we have is rumors, from various sources. Potential transactions often see the same pattern of conflicting reports and the like . . . sometimes the actual result wasn't predicted by any of them. We can only go off things that actually happen.

Sorry for the confusion. Point I was trying to make was quite simply we don't win when he is playing subpar and win even less when he is tearing it up. Our needs are pitching and more pitching. Young pitchers are hit and miss so the more you accumulate the better the odds of 1 of them being a stud. Dozier is our underpaid asset to acquire this young pitching talent. He will not be cheap next time the contract is signed and we still don't know how he performs in the heat of a pennant race. With the good comes the bad. He cannot carry this team and is streaky with a high strikeout ratio. On a good team he fits great on a bad team he doesn't move the needle. We need pitching.

First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere. That could be improvements from some guys, it could be more trades or even FAs coming in but this one trade, no matter how important it seems in this moment, isn't going to make or break the Minnesota Twins future regardless of what happens with Dozier.

 

I think it's easy to lose the bigger picture and to believe this trade is the all important one when in fact we are only looking at 3 more wins per year in the future even if De Leon pans out. We still need 30 more from somewhere else.

 

Twinsfan&Dad this reply isn't really directed at you it just seemed to piggy back off your thoughts.

 

103 losses and people are worried about changing the make-up of the team.....

 

http://www.bluehogreport.com/wp-content/uploads/facepalm.jpg?x17359

 

From Cover Girl to Estée Lauder?  Not following.  Catcher's masks for Everyone!!

 

First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere.

 

That's right.  But the Twins have a much bigger hole at SP than they do at 2B.  After Dozier goes, Polanco slides into his spot.  Dozier is the only person the team has that can help fix their pitching problem. 

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

 

It seems like it shouldn't be that hard to agree to the third piece in a deal. There has to be at least one realistic prospect that that the Twins rate a lot higher than the Dodgers.

 

So what? You really think Dozier has a tendency to play good when it doesn't matter and play bad when it does? If not, then what is the point of this? If so, aren't you drawing a correlation based on a small sample size correlation?

 

The point is that Dozier's performance is relatively negligible in the win/loss result for this team as-constructed because they are so uncompetitive. It's a pointless luxury to have a slugging second baseman when you're fielding a league-worst pitching staff paired with poor defense and a streaky lineup.

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

 

What I don't seem to understand; why would the Twins need a 3rd piece if those two are on the table? For me, if those two are being offered, I take it and run.

Alvarez looks to me like a Tommy John in the making.  With his 100 MPH fastball and second-pitch being a slider, not to mention his delivery that has been described as "mildly violent" -- I would either pass or groom him to be a closer and start limiting his innings immediately. 

 

Plus, he is 3 years out at a minimum.

 

If the Twins are balking at anything regarding Alvarez, they're simply being silly.  If he's off the table, move on.  If he's on the table, grab him and change his path to the majors before his arm falls off.  He has still yet to play A+ and has yet to have a big workload. He could be the best closer in the league by the time he debuts or his arm could shred after a very short career as a starter. 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Doomtints

If DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table and the Twins management doesn't take the deal we need Terry Ryan back.

 

I don't think anyone believes we currently are chock full of 3/4 types but the Twins do have Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios, Mejia, rule 5 guy all around for several more seasons. In addition they also have Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and Jorge 1-2 years out. After that they have guys like Romero and Thorpe 2-3 years out. That's 14 starting pitchers that will need innings to show what they are capable of in the next few years. That also doesn't include any veterans they might want to bring in for leadership or on one year deals to recoup value with an eye towards flipping.

Some of those guys will not pan out but the Twins won't know who until they invest the innings to find out. I think bringing back mid rotation guys just further muddies the water; it's just another mediocre pitcher to determine if they can sink or swim in MLB.

 

Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players.

 

It might sound promising to rattle off a long list of names but that list gets thin in a hurry when you really evaluate it. Santana is in his mid-30's and is the best pitcher in that group, he's not going to be here for much longer. Gibson could pitch himself out of a job this year. Hughes is a lottery ticket to ever start effectively again. May and Duffey are running out of time to establish themselves in the rotation and may be permanently bound for the bullpen. Berrios has a long ways to go and his talent will get him a lot of time to work through his struggles, but you can't count on his future right now. Mejia isn't a game changer. That leaves a lot of potential openings to rotate prospects through in a year or two. Furthermore, those prospects have ceilings as 4's and borderline 3's in some cases, with a few that could fall back to being solid relievers, but the failure rate is so high that I'm not worried about blocking someone if it means acquiring a solid #3 or better pitcher. The truly good players will always separate themselves and force their way onto the roster.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Taildragger8791