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  • Can Falvey Learn Anything From the Cubs' Turnaround?


    Tom Froemming

    With the Twins expected to officially announce the hiring of Derek Falvey as President of Baseball Opportunities any day now, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look back at how the Cubs' rebuild got started. Now the envy of the baseball world, the Cubs had fallen on hard times prior to hiring their current PBO, Theo Epstein.

    Epstein took over in October 2011 and his first move was to hire Jed Hoyer, his former right-hand man in Boston, to serve as his general manager. And it was all butterflies and rainbows in Wrigleyville from there, right?

    Well ... not so much.

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    The first major league signing under the new regime was, drum roll please, David DeJesus! Not exactly a big splash, franchise-defining move. Their first trade didn't work out so well, either. They sent future All-Star, Gold Glover and possible 2016 NL batting champ D.J. LaMahieu to Colorado with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart (who hit .210/.292/.335 in one season for the Cubs) and Casey Weathers (who never made it out of the minors).

    Ooops. Luckily for the Cubbie faithful, they didn't misfire on another big trade they made that winter.

    On Jan. 6, 2012, the new-look Cubs front office, just a few months on the job, made a franchise-altering trade, though it didn't appear to be that impactful at the time. Despite the old adage that pitching wins championships, the Cubs sent young fireballer Andrew Cashner, the organization's first-round pick in '08, to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo.

    It was essentially a challenge trade, swapping two young players, one of whom (Cashner) Epstein and Hoyer couldn't have known too well, for one whom they were extremely familiar with. Epstein was the general manager of the Red Sox when they drafted Rizzo and Hoyer was the GM of the Padres when they traded for him. He was their guy.

    It wasn't exactly a popular trade at the time, seeing as Rizzo had just hit .141/.281/.242 in 49 games with San Diego, but it has turned out to be one of the better trades of the past 20 years. Over the past three seasons, only Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson have accumulated more fWAR than Rizzo's 16.3. Cashner never lived up to his lofty expectations.

    But it's not like it was all smooth sailing even after the Rizzo trade. The next offseason, Epstein handed out his first big money free agent contract with the Cubs. In Jan. '13, the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal and he rewarded them with a 5.37 ERA. To Twins fans, that deal looks eerily similar to the Ricky Nolasco contract.

    The Epstein-run front office had also struggled to find a manager. Only a couple of weeks after the new regime took over they fired Mike Quade (current Rochester Red Wings skipper) despite the fact he was under contract for the 2012 season. They brought in Dale Sveum as their hand-picked replacement, but his .392 winning percentage over two seasons didn't cut it.

    In 2014 they replaced Sveum with Rick Renteria, who served only one year on the job after some odd circumstances led Joe Maddon to take the reins. Chicago's love affair with Maddon started on Day 1, as he famously offered to buy everyone shots at his hiring press conference. The .619 winning percentage the team has posted since doesn't hurt either.

    To summarize, thing's didn't just turn over for the Epstein-led Cubs at the flip of (GM) switch, and their record was indicative of that. In the first season under the new regime, the Cubs actually lost 101 games. They didn't post a winning record until just last season, which was the fourth under Epstein's leadership.

    But ask any Cubs fan and they'll tell you it doesn't matter how long it took to get here. It was well worth the wait. Along with making improvements to Wrigley Field to ensure it will be a viable ballpark for the future, the Cubs have built both an elite roster and farm system. And best of all, this team appears to have a window of contention about as large as the windows that open up on the Vikings' new stadium.

    The Cubs have baseball's best record, but even if they can't break their 107-year World Series drought this season, when the bleacher bums say "there's always next year" instead of it being a sheepish rallying cry, they can really mean it this time. They appear to be well equipped for an extended stay atop the NL. For their efforts, the Cubs just gave extensions to Epstein, Hoyer and player development guru Jason McLeod.

    Looking at the Cubs' turnaround, the first thing that stands out to me is how little it mattered that the new regime was able to hire their own manager. They didn't really get their guy (Maddon) until the team was ready for contention.

    Many have argued that Jim Pohlad's insistence that Paul Molitor remain as manager is a cataclysmic mistake. It probably isn't the wisest move, but at the same time it probably won't really matter. It seems there's a very good chance Falvey will able to hire his manager for the 2018 season, at the latest.

    Of course, every team and every front office is different, and Twins fans shouldn't expect Falvey to take the Cubs rebuild as a blueprint. It is, however, worthwhile to note that what may eventually go down as one of the greatest turnarounds and front office tenures in baseball history took three years to get off the ground.

    Given the year we've suffered through, it may be painful to accept the fact the Twins may have a few more lean years ahead. But, if Falvey and company (whoever that may be) can deliver an extended run of championship-caliber teams it will be well worth the wait, however long it may be. That should be the ultimate goal, regardless of what it means for the 2017 season.

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    Sure, I don't think anyone disagrees with that - the Cubs have done wonderfully smart things that the Twins can certainly try and emulate. They've also used their payroll advantage successfully. I'm not sure why that's controversial but it certainly seems to be for some.

    The controversial part is implying their spending is an equivalent part of their turnaround as their other moves. They got to be a 90 win team with a great core basically without any great spending.

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    The controversial part is implying their spending is an equivalent part of their turnaround as their other moves. They got to be a 90 win team with a great core basically without any great spending.

    Well, that's demonstrably not true.  WAR is certainly not a great end-all but those 8 FA amassed 21.5 WAR so far and that ignores the impact of some large salaries the Cubs were able to add in-season (over 15m).  While Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Bryant are a great core, that wasn't a 90 win team without those FA. 

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    Well, that's demonstrably not true.  WAR is certainly not a great end-all but those 8 FA amassed 21.5 WAR so far and that ignores the impact of some large salaries the Cubs were able to add in-season (over 15m).  While Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Bryant are a great core, that wasn't a 90 win team without those FA.

     

    Sure. But I was factoring in that even a below-average GM, given 20 roster spots and $90M, should be able to scrape together an additional 10 WAR. Look at this terrible Twins team. If Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Gibson and Berrios had combined for 30 WAR, the remaining players on this team, the worst team in baseball, (Grossman, Rosario, Nunez, Escobar, Santana, etc...) would have been enough to be in wildcard contention.

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    Well, that's demonstrably not true.  WAR is certainly not a great end-all but those 8 FA amassed 21.5 WAR so far and that ignores the impact of some large salaries the Cubs were able to add in-season (over 15m).  While Rizzo, Russell, Baez and Bryant are a great core, that wasn't a 90 win team without those FA. 

    If you subtract ALL of their FA signings, they were a $74 mil payroll team on opening day.  That's not a valid baseline for showing their dependence on free agency above an average team.

     

    The average MLB payroll on opening day this year was $131 mil.  Subtract Lester and Heyward, and the Cubs were right around that figure, with plenty of WAR remaining to clear the playoff threshold both this year and last year.  (And I think they've only added about $9-10 mil in salary this summer in trades -- the remaining 2016 salaries for Chapman, Coughlan, and Joe Smith.)

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    Sure. But I was factoring in that even a below-average GM, given 20 roster spots and $90M, should be able to scrape together an additional 10 WAR. Look at this terrible Twins team. If Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Gibson and Berrios had combined for 30 WAR, the remaining players on this team, the worst team in baseball, (Grossman, Rosario, Nunez, Escobar, Santana, etc...) would have been enough to be in wildcard contention.

    What is the average cost of WAR, somewhere around 6 million. To add 10 WAR is then adding 60 million  to the payroll. One would hope that a team with a 150 million payroll would be competitive. The Angels say otherwise.  Yankees, Tigers say you can buy mediocrity. At 140 million spent, the Royals and White Sox are not getting their monies worth. SportRac data for payroll was used.

     

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    If you subtract ALL of their FA signings, they were a $74 mil payroll team on opening day.  That's not a valid baseline for showing their dependence on free agency above an average team.

     

    The average MLB payroll on opening day this year was $131 mil.  Subtract Lester and Heyward, and the Cubs were right around that figure, with plenty of WAR remaining to clear the playoff threshold both this year and last year.  (And I think they've only added about $9-10 mil in salary this summer in trades -- the remaining 2016 salaries for Chapman, Coughlan, and Joe Smith.)

    Now we've gone from comparing their payroll to the Twins to the average team and you're asking us to ignore signing their ace and Heyward.  That's like saying, "except for Mauer, the Twins can't develop catchers."

     

    I don't think it's controversial to say that the Cubs wouldn't have made it to 90 wins if they didn't sign 3/5 of their rotation, their entire OF and all-star second baseman.  They still had a great core but those FA were a huge, huge addition.  It wasn't window dressing or add-ons. 

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    Now we've gone from comparing their payroll to the Twins to the average team and you're asking us to ignore signing their ace and Heyward. That's like saying, "except for Mauer, the Twins can't develop catchers."

     

    I don't think it's controversial to say that the Cubs wouldn't have made it to 90 wins if they didn't sign 3/5 of their rotation, their entire OF and all-star second baseman. They still had a great core but those FA were a huge, huge addition. It wasn't window dressing or add-ons.

    But if you're saying they can't sign ANY free agents, that's not comparing them to the Twins, or almost any team in MLB. That's comparing them to the Rays, or the A's. Every team in MLB has a spending power advantage over those clubs.

     

    The reason I am leaving out Heyward and Lester is because they haven't contributed much to their turnaround so far. The Cubs turnaround to a playoff caliber roster was largely complete when they brought those two aboard, especially Heyward. Maybe they or a future FA will put them over the top, but that wasn't the context of the discussion, it was the turnaround that I think you attributed too much to their FA spending power.

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    But if you're saying they can't sign ANY free agents, that's not comparing them to the Twins, or almost any team in MLB. That's comparing them to the Rays, or the A's. Every team in MLB has a spending power advantage over those clubs.

    The reason I am leaving out Heyward and Lester is because they haven't contributed much to their turnaround so far. The Cubs turnaround to a playoff caliber roster was largely complete when they brought those two aboard, especially Heyward. Maybe they or a future FA will put them over the top, but that wasn't the context of the discussion, it was the turnaround that I think you attributed too much to their FA spending power.

    I'm not really sure that's true.  They signed Lester coming off a 73 win season.  I think it's fair to say that Lester helped them go from a losing team to a winning team. 

     

    At a certain point, we're probably talking past ourselves.  I think we both agree that the Cubs have created a great core through great trades and some solid draft picks - something that the Twins could also do to some extent.  We probably disagree to the degree the FA signings have helped the Cubs but we both can agree that the Twins can do better at FA signings than they have while recognizing they have less room for error than the Cubs. 

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    The Cubs only have the one great draft pick.  The rest of their success can be attributed to spending money. 

     

    Note that the Twins also could have picked up some of those guys but passed.  Dexter Fowler's salary is not out of line and he signed very late with the Cubs.  The Twins could have signed him a year earlier and paid even less.  A team that has been in the Twins position passing on Fowler is baffling when they had two chances to get him.  The fact that he signed with Houston when Houston was as bad as Minnesota indicates he wasn't picky.

     

    Also note that Kris Bryant would be picked on a bit by fans in the Twins market due to his defense and his strikeouts.  I was at Wrigley on the 4th of July and saw him collide with two different players and let several balls drop.  The conversations around Bryant would all be about regression and how dare the Cubs let a 3rd baseman play in the outfield.  The grass is always greener, I suppose.

    Edited by Doomtints
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    I don't really see any kind of comparison between Epstein and Falvey. Epstein already had an excellent track record as an executive in MLB before joining the Cubs. There really isn't anything that impresses me about Falvey.  He didn't really make any important decisions with the Indians. His education is mediocre so there's no reason to think he's some kind of genius.

    Sure Epstein can get Jed Hoyer as GM and put together a top notch staff. There's no shortage of people who want to work for him and money is no object with the Cubs. Who's Falvey going to get? The best thing I read about him is that he does everything and is conscientious. Not a bad person to have on the staff, but not really the guy you want running the place.

    I see no reason to give someone like that the title of President. I would even question the wisdom of making him GM. I don't know the guy of course, so maybe there's something I'm missing.

    It seems to me that Pohlad found someone he liked on a personal level and is going to hire him. Not exactly the way to make decisions in an ultra competitive environment.

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