Buyer Beware: Avoiding a Chris Archer Trade

Personally, I'd trade Lewis for an effective reliever heads up. Lewis can't hit, and won't stay at SS. Way overrated, but that's just me.

He has had a good month of July - but over the course of over 500 AB's at high A, he hasn't exactly impressed with his bat.

I'm aware. None of them were the level of prospect Kiriloff or Lewis are

True, Franklin Perez got to as high as 41 by mlb.com/prospects, so not as high as those two but above every other prospect.

My point is if you want talent it comes at a cost. And not upgrading a mediocre bullpen comes with a cost.

I am willing to pay the cost it requires to upgrade the bullpen (Not Royce or Alex) but just about anybody else.

How about a buy low on Dylan Bundy?  Could the Twins tweak some things to pull down his HR-rate? Two more years of control.

Would Mike Leake actually be an effective target?  I'm sure Seattle would like that deal off the books.  May not have to give up much in prospects.  He is what he is, but he gets deep in ball games (7-7+ IP seven times, less than 5 IP only once) and should help in keeping the pen rested down the stretch. One more year of control @ $16 mill.

Robbie Erlin is another interesting player.  The Twins need another lefty (unless Thorpe is going to be that guy).  He's been down under a .367 BABIP this season, but the peripherals seem better.  One more year of control.

These guys aren't the Verlanders and Chapmans of the market, but they will likely not cost more than chump change to low level 20-30 rated prospects.  I think all three either have upside or fill a need at a lower cost.  

I want the Twins to go for it, but I'm long on the core team.  I don't think a guy like Stroman will get them over the hump, so I'd let someone else overpay.

Except that last year at this time that's exactly what people were saying about both Lewis and Kirilloff: these were all-star, organizational changing prospects. No, neither was the next Mike Trout, but that's a once in a generation kind of a player! Vlad Guerrero Jr was seen by everyone as a can't miss prospect, an all-star organization changing guy...but he's not Mike Trout either. If that's the scale, no one registers.

 

The only question on Lewis was whether or not he stuck at SS or would be better moved to a different elite defensive position in CF. The only question on Kirilloff was when he would start slashing base hits in MLB. This year, Kirilloff has had some injury issues that are pulling his numbers down, and Lewis hit his first development hiccup. But they're both still great prospects.

 

I'd rather make a smaller move for a bullpen guy than hand over the farm for Bumgarner or even Stroman. (and I think Bumgarner is going to be nigh-impossible to pry away from the Giants since they went on this tear: they're 17-3 over their last 20 and are 2 games back of the wild card in the NL) People are talking like it will take a package headed by Lewis or Kirilloff to get either, along with other pieces and that seems like a Chris Archer overpay to me. Bumgarner moves the needle as a starter but is a summer rental, and Stroman is a nice piece but is more important for being a reliable consistent guy over a season instead of being dominant.

So if the Twins were presented with a deal, from say the Reds for Castillo, would you be okay if they dealt either Lewis or Kiriloff for him?

I sure as heck would.

Did the Cubs fire their GM for trading Torrez for Chapman?

No, they took him on a parade.

According to this article, the Twins have deemed Lewis, Kiriloff, and Graterol off limits.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-10-prospects-that-could-be-dealt-including-gems-from-the-yankees-astros-and-braves/

So if the Twins were presented with a deal, from say the Reds for Castillo, would you be okay if they dealt either Lewis or Kiriloff for him?

 

I sure as heck would.

Sure, but that's fantasy land. The Reds aren't going to offer their best pitcher, a guy who's pitching at a Cy Young-level in MLB and is under team control for the next 5 years to anyone. We could offer Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Balazovic and they still would probably laugh at us, because even if those prospects have amazing value Castillo has more for their franchise because it's less risk.

The pitcher the Reds might consider moving would be Sonny Gray (which would be complicated). Let's not get distracted talking about impossible trades for players who aren't on the market.

Sure, but that's fantasy land. The Reds aren't going to offer their best pitcher, a guy who's pitching at a Cy Young-level in MLB and is under team control for the next 5 years to anyone. We could offer Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Balazovic and they still would probably laugh at us, because even if those prospects have amazing value Castillo has more for their franchise because it's less risk.

 

The pitcher the Reds might consider moving would be Sonny Gray (which would be complicated). Let's not get distracted talking about impossible trades for players who aren't on the market.

Right, but that is the kind of player I would easily deal Lewis for. I would also trade him for deGrom or Thor too. An ace level, controllable arm. That is the exact deal that you would include someone like Lewis or Kiriloff in. I am not saying you deal those guys for someone like Will Smith or Marcus Stroman, but these guys should not be off limits if the right call is made to the Twins.

Did the Cubs fire their GM for trading Torrez for Chapman?

The argument could be made that the Cubs were a Chapman away from winning the World Series, so therefore any and all prospects were on the table.

If you could guarantee me that sending the Twins top 5 prospects for 4 months of any one player hangs a banner at Target Field, I would make that trade every time. As it pertains to the Twins, they are multiple pieces away from World Series contention.

I completely agree every prospect needs to be on the table at all times, and not to over-worry about sending a guy with potential away to get an immediate impact in return. From reading other comments on this site, it feels like many think there is one move needed that will somehow result in a World Series victory this year, and that just is not the case.

Right, but that is the kind of player I would easily deal Lewis for. I would also trade him for deGrom or Thor too. An ace level, controllable arm. That is the exact deal that you would include someone like Lewis or Kiriloff in. I am not saying you deal those guys for someone like Will Smith or Marcus Stroman, but these guys should not be off limits if the right call is made to the Twins.

Sure, but when you see reports of Lewis, Kirilloff, or Graterol being "off limits" it's in the context of the current trade market and who teams are making available. Teams are calling the Twins hoping they can fleece them of Lewis  or something for a 2nd tier reliever and are being told those guys are off-limits based on the players involved in the conversations.

Right, but that is the kind of player I would easily deal Lewis for. I would also trade him for deGrom or Thor too. An ace level, controllable arm. That is the exact deal that you would include someone like Lewis or Kiriloff in. I am not saying you deal those guys for someone like Will Smith or Marcus Stroman, but these guys should not be off limits if the right call is made to the Twins.

Why stop at Castillo, deGrom, or Syndergaard?  You know what player I would easily deal Lewis for?  Mike Trout.  Falvine should go do that.

So 8 days from the deadline am I the only one here thinking they are going to try and wait out the market too long and end up getting no help when it’s all said and done?

I am really surprised they haven’t at least brought in a reliever by this point wonder how much longer the FO keeps the clubhouse at bay if they don’t make upgrades to the pen? I hope they don’t see Thorpe as their “upgrade” and just roll with that.

According to this article, the Twins have deemed Lewis, Kiriloff, and Graterol off limits.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-10-prospects-that-could-be-dealt-including-gems-from-the-yankees-astros-and-braves/

As all organizations should do with the elite talent in their organizations.  All GM's know that every player is available for a price (for example, if the Twins offered the Angels Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, and Garver, the Angels would be only too happy to give us Trout, Pujols, and Upton).  Good GM's go into trade negotiations with the ability to credibly walk away without making a deal.  It's harder to do that if you've broadcast your eagerness to trade a specific player.

I hope (and suspect) the whole "off limits" thing with certain prospects is posturing. In any negotiation, you want the opposing side to believe that your agreement to a deal is reluctant and painful to you.

It requires 2 teams to make a trade. There are many teams still deciding whether to sell or not, and teams like the Blue Jays (Giles) are going to ask for a fortune today, but prices will likely calm down nearer July 31

I understand that it takes two to tango as they say. All i hope is that the FO doesnt play it to close to their vest and hold out to long and end up with nothing. Ownership claims they will spend if need to but I just am skeptical on that time will only tell.

Personally, I'd trade Lewis for an effective reliever heads up. Lewis can't hit, and won't stay at SS. Way overrated, but that's just me.

Maybe his hitting will improve?  Crazy assertion, I know, but if Mitch Garver can go from an OPS of .679 as a 22 year old in Elizabethton to the best offensive catcher in baseball in 6 years, maybe Lewis can get better too.

That being said, if the right player/package came along I'd be all for it, but it would have to be a hell of a deal.

Trade for Escobar or Pressly type of players please. Pressly is an all star this year. Escobar has .292 avg .900 OPS, he has hit 22 homers and driven in 79 runs so far. Talk about production and clutchness.

I'd love to have Esco back on the team, but he's fairly redundant given what we have with Gonzalez, Adrianza, and Arraez.  If you can get him for an unexpectedly cheap price without taking up a lot of time to do it, great, otherwise I'm good with our lineup.  Save your ammo (prospects and time) for pitching.

Who are your picks, to avoid the next Archer and snag the next Verlander?

Loaded question. There is only one Verlander, there will be no next one. Besides, I would only look at picking up relievers.

1) Jimmy Sherfy, or Yoshihisa Hirano if the Rays are ready to promote Sherfy to full time. (I don't know the extent of Sherfy's injury which could change my opinion).

2) Amir Garrett, or Lucas Sims if Garrett is untouchable.
3) Reyes Moronta, Sam Dyson, Will Smith, or Tony Watson. The Giants have a great bullpen but are starving for hitting. The Twins have some guys who can hit, right? This could be a blockbuster, multi-player trade.

Prospects in general are not "overrated." Prospects are the ONLY way the Twins can possibly hope to compete, in any season, for as long as MLB exists in the future. Former prospects are obviously the only reason the Twins are competitive this year.

The issue with prospects of course is that only a minority of them actually pan out. But it really doesn't matter because clubs don't know for sure who will and who won't. The value of a top prospect like Kirilloff is enormous just because he *might* be really good. 

The huge market teams (which, by the way, includes Houston) are reluctant to part with top prospects but also have the ability to make up for mistakes by spending more. The Twins aren't going to spend more and so the front office can't make the same kinds of decisions.

Now, if I could exchange Kirilloff for a World Series title, I would do that. Unfortunately, that's not how things work. The Twins could trade every single prospect of note in the system and their World Series odds would only increase by a moderate amount (and still remain a relatively low probability given the number of teams in the playoffs).

Post-season baseball is unpredictable. Oftentimes, the best team doesn't win. I want to make the playoffs as much as possible, and not give up numerous future playoff appearances in exchange for an 8th inning reliever who may or may not actually make an impact.

OK, well, you're going from "don't follow the herd" to "don't get a starter", and this is a thread about getting a starter. You can save time and just say that.

So what you're saying is I'm not following the herd.

This does not change my advice. If the Twins are shopping for starters, hopefully they are digging deep.