Buyer Beware: Avoiding a Chris Archer Trade

Trade Sano

An unpopular choice but I have no faith in him.  It's home runs or strikeouts and his fielding hasn't been all that great lately.  He would probably be someone who could give us great return in a trade and we wouldn't have to dip into our pool of highly regarded prospects.

In general I always worry about the Twins when they make trades.  We rarely seem to get the better end of the deals.

No on Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balzovic, and Duran (and Arraez), and maybe no on Larnach. The way to win a WS is not to "go for it." The way to win is to have a consistently very good team that you can add to with the Gordons and Rookers of the system. Year after year.

I'd rather have a chance every year (a real chance, not a Terry Ryan no clue how to put together the right pieces 2000s chance) than shoot my load on one year every so often.

Rosario will need to be dealt, dealing Buxton might be the necessary play, pitching needs to gel in the upper system. Players are going to need to be replaced, and a system of continuity has to be developed. You need to keep your top tops.

The Twins might not pull a Stroman/Giles or a Boyd/Greene without a top prospect, but they can certainly get some relief help. Starting pitching is on its way in the system. Pretty close, really.

Trade Sano

An unpopular choice but I have no faith in him. It's home runs or strikeouts and his fielding hasn't been all that great lately. He would probably be someone who could give us great return in a trade and we wouldn't have to dip into our pool of highly regarded prospects.

In general I always worry about the Twins when they make trades. We rarely seem to get the better end of the deals.

I love this logic. He’s not very good but he’s going to fetch a “great return”.

It doesn’t work that way.

Cash considerations.

Gasp! You just want the money.

The best advice is to not follow the herd. Archer didn't look great to me yet everybody was all up on him. Same with Darvish being injury prone.

Oakland tends to do well because they ignore the name and they ignore the fanfare. They look at the data, and I don't mean WAR or even FIP, which for example were masking Archer's actual performance.

Do an article on avoiding a deal like Verlander, too.

I like you. I really like you.

I trust this front office to not do anything dumb, nothing that would hurt the team long-term. They've been really smart on that front so far.

Yes on Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balzovic, and Duran (and Arraez). Yes on Larnach. The way to win a WS is to go for it when you have the chance. 

 

Just in the last three years:

 

2018 Boston added Nate Eovaldi, Ian Kinsler, and Steve Pearce

2017 Houston added Francisco Liriano, Tyler Clippard, and Justin Verlander

2016 Chicago added Chris Coghlan, Mike Montgomery, Aroldis Chapman, and Joe Smith.

 

Certainly don't give away top prospects. But if you can impact your team significantly, do it, even if it costs some of those same prospects. 

Again, this.

It isn't like the Twins are going to be GIVING these prospects away. Good grief, people need to get over the whole "noooo, we can't trade our prospects. Never, ever, ever." Prospects are just that - prospects. They aren't proven, and more often than not they fail to live up to expectations.

As highly as some people think of Lewis and Kiriloff, they aren't Mike Trout, or Bryce Harper, or Joe Mauer, or any of those "elite" guys. Good prospects, sure. But hardly someone you would look at and say "organization changer."

Outside of the Chapman trade, none of those trades cost "Lewis, Kiriloff" level prospects

The Astros sent right-hander Franklin Perez (No. 3 Astros prospect, per MLBPipeline.com), outfielder Daz Cameron (No. 9) and catcher Jake Rogers (No. 11) to the Tigers

Never understood the love for Archer. I wanted nothing to do with him as I saw him as overrated given the results in front of the peripherals. I feel similar about Marcus Stroman this season. I think he is the pitcher a team is going to get fleeced for like this. 

 

With that said, at the right price I would be fine with him on the Twins, but I would expect him to only be as good as Gibson has been.

Sadly, I doubt any pitcher is going to be had at the right price. Too many teams believe they are in the wild card race. 

 

As highly as some people think of Lewis and Kiriloff, they aren't Mike Trout, or Bryce Harper, or Joe Mauer, or any of those "elite" guys. Good prospects, sure. But hardly someone you would look at and say "organization changer."

Except that last year at this time that's exactly what people were saying about both Lewis and Kirilloff: these were all-star, organizational changing prospects. No, neither was the next Mike Trout, but that's a once in a generation kind of a player! Vlad Guerrero Jr was seen by everyone as a can't miss prospect, an all-star organization changing guy...but he's not Mike Trout either. If that's the scale, no one registers.

The only question on Lewis was whether or not he stuck at SS or would be better moved to a different elite defensive position in CF. The only question on Kirilloff was when he would start slashing base hits in MLB. This year, Kirilloff has had some injury issues that are pulling his numbers down, and Lewis hit his first development hiccup. But they're both still great prospects.

I'd rather make a smaller move for a bullpen guy than hand over the farm for Bumgarner or even Stroman. (and I think Bumgarner is going to be nigh-impossible to pry away from the Giants since they went on this tear: they're 17-3 over their last 20 and are 2 games back of the wild card in the NL) People are talking like it will take a package headed by Lewis or Kirilloff to get either, along with other pieces and that seems like a Chris Archer overpay to me. Bumgarner moves the needle as a starter but is a summer rental, and Stroman is a nice piece but is more important for being a reliable consistent guy over a season instead of being dominant.