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I’ve written a lot about the other spring training battles but have stayed away from the bullpen, partly because Nick Nelson covered it this weekend and partly because there were just so many options. But with recent demotions, the bullpen battles are becoming a little more clear – but not a lot more clear. There are just so many factors, and the biggest ones might not be the individual relievers' performance. It might be the performance of the guys trying out for the fifth starter job or whether or not the Twins can make a trade for a Rule 5 pick.
Here’s the breakdown:
There are seven spots. Four of them are essentially spoken for:
1. Glen Perkins has overcome his oblique strain, so he’s in.
2. Casey Fien is in and seems to have overcome whatever ailed him last September.
3. Brian Duensing was hit by a comebacker yesterday just over the knee on his thigh, but while he won’t pitch for a couple of days, he should have no problem being back for opening day.
4. Tim Stauffer has a major league contract, and while Terry Ryan stopped short of calling him an “absolute lock” in his pregame press conference, he did say he’ll be getting the “benefit of the doubt.” So he’s in.
That leaves three spots and they are largely dependent on what happens in the fifth spot in the rotation. At least one, and possibly, two, are spoken for. Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May are all competing for that last spot. Ryan confirmed that “is a fair assumption” that Pelfrey and Milone would end up in the bullpen if they don’t win the job, and oddly enough would not say that Trevor May would be sent to Rochester if he didn’t with the job, leaving the option open that he could be in the bullpen, too. However, that chance seems very remote.
Your guess is as good as mine regarding the fifth starter job. Everyone seems to be playing their cards very close to their vest. Prior to the postgame conference, I would have handicapped it like this:
Pelfrey 1:1
Milone 2:1
May 5:1
But I talked to at least one veteran sportswriter who thought Milone was still in the lead, and it also seemed like there was some confusion whether Pelfrey would get another start with the big league club. Whether that means he’s out of the running or they just don’t need to see any more is unknown. So again, take those odds with much more than a grain of salt. Like, maybe a shaker of salt.
Back to the bullpen. Whoever wins could have a major effect on the makeup of the bullpen. Let’s look at the scenarios.
What If Pelfrey Wins The Fifth Starter Spot?
5. Tommy Milone becomes the second (or third if you count Perkins) lefty in the bullpen.
That leaves two spots in the bullpen. My best guess is they are taken by the right-handers:
6. Blaine Boyer and
7. J.R. Graham
Missing out:
RHP Mark Hamburger
LHP Caleb Thielbar, Aaron Thompson
Boyer and Graham are mostly a guess, though they have had great camps. But so have all the guys that are still in camp, so either one could be replaced by Hamburger. It’s also possible that the Twins could decide to still take another left-hander, and Terry Ryan praised both Thielbar and Thompson’s spring earlier today. Ryan also said a few days ago he doesn’t feel strongly about how many left-handers or right-handers are in the bullpen.
What If Milone Wins The Fifth Starter Spot?
5. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third right-hander in the bullpen.
That leaves two spots in the bullpen. My best guess is they would want a right-hander and a left-hander, so let’s go with:
6. Caleb Thielbar and
7. J.R. Graham
Missing out:
RHP Mark Hamburger
LHP Blaine Boyer, Aaron Thompson
I’m in the minority in thinking that the Twins would choose Graham over Boyer. But since Graham is a Rule 5 pick and since Boyer isn’t on the 40-man roster, that’s the way I’m going. I should emphasize – Boyer has really impressed people.
If the Twins decide to keep Boyer and send Graham down in this scenario, they would either need to return him to the Braves or make a deal. In the past, the Twins have had some luck making deals with the Braves; that’s how they secured Scott Diamond. That happened very late in spring training that year, on the 28th of March. I’m optimistic that this could happen again.
As for the lefties, I don’t know if Thielbar is really in front of Thompson. I think Thielbar will get the benefit of the doubt given his time on the team the last few years. Then today, Thompson pitched before Thielbar did today and Thielbar did struggle a bit, giving up two hits and the winning run (though I think it should have been unearned).
However, Molitor emphasized that he didn’t mean to give them a “head-to-head” matchup; he just wasn’t able to use Thompson in the game yesterday, so he made sure he got him in the game today.
What If May Wins The Fifth Starter Spot?
5. Mike Pelfrey becomes the third right-hander in the bullpen.
6. Tommy Milone becomes the second lefty in the bullpen.
That leaves just one spot in the bullpen. My best guess is they would want a right-hander, so let’s go with:
7. Blaine Boyer
Missing out:
RHP Mark Hamburger, J.R. Graham
LHP Caleb Thielbar, Aaron Thompson
Looking at this, it seems that Trevor May is going to need to overcome even more than having an option to send him down and a limited spring training resume due to the flu. Putting him in the fifth spot also squeezes the bullpen that much more. (Oh, and the forecast for his start on Friday has a 90% chance of rain. What’s next? Locusts?)
If you want to distill things a little further, it feels like there will likely be two spots in the bullpen and three pitchers essentially competing for it: Boyer, Graham and Thielbar. The key factor might be if they can work a trade for Graham. If so, and May doesn’t win the fifth job, the logjam could be cleared.
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