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  • Breaking Byron Buxton


    Parker Hageman

    “The leg kick is me now. I’m going to stick with what I do.” Byron Buxton, March 2017.

    There is a stand-up bit Jerry Seinfeld had about pilots and their insistence on telling passengers just exactly what they are doing in-flight.

    I’m taking the plane up to whatever altitude. We’re going to head south around the Great Lakes. We’re descending to whatever feet. We’re passing over Las Vegas now.

    The paraphrased punchline was [seinfeld voice]: Yeah, that’s great. Just get us to where it says on the ticket. I don’t care what you are doing in the cockpit, land at the place we all agreed upon before boarding.

    In many respects, this is how a large number of Twins fans react to the offensive struggles of Byron Buxton. Toe tap? Leg kick? Focused on hitting ground balls? Who cares. Replace the strikeouts with hits. Just get him to where he needs to go. While that is fine, there are times when you have to talk about the methods behind the madness. If you are a person that cares about the process as well as results, this post is for you.

    Image courtesy of USA TODAY // Bruce Kluckhohn

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    Despite the emphatic statement he made in spring training, by the end of May Buxton did an about-face and decided that the leg kick wasn’t him anymore. The early season struggles and unsightly lack of contact sent him scrambling for an alternative.

    For a stretch, Buxton retained his open stance set-up (something he had in high school but the Twins eliminated in the minors) but refrained from lifting his front leg. Everything about that swing screamed out that it was an unnatural abomination. His body looked like it wanted to lift the front leg but the foot was cemented to its spot in the batters’ box.

    Not long after that, Buxton modified his set-up to close his front side, allowing him some ability to cover the entire zone, and made the swing look a tad more natural in the process but with the same glued front foot.

    What was surprising is that no one from the media nor the Twins seemed to address this. Perhaps it goes back to not caring what the pilot is doing. Either way, it took almost a month of watching on a daily basis before the Twins made a public acknowledgement of what was happening.

    The goal, as explained on the Fox Sports North broadcast, was to make more and better contact. By stripping away the excess movements, the Twins believed he could be a more productive hitter. And this isn’t the first time the organization attempted to do so.

    “I’m going to be honest with you,” Bert Blyleven said. “It’s the same thing Tom Brunansky tried to get Buxton to do but when Buxton was sent down he went back to the high leg kick and hit well.”

    Blyleven went on to suggest that Buxton should look to his manager, Paul Molitor, and his swing for inspiration. To Blyleven, Molitor’s minimalist, handsy swing should be the template for Buxton going forward.

    Here’s the thing: I thought I sort of, kind of get what the Twins are doing. They need Buxton’s defense in center. He’s a lifesaver for the pitching staff. You can’t replace one of the game’s best defenders that easily and you also can’t keep having an automatic out in the lineup either. You have to make concessions. They would temporarily reduce his movements in order to try to get something salvageable out of his bat and bridge him until the offseason where he can work on perfecting his swing. However, the more it is discussed, the more it sounds like the Twins’ long-term vision is to keep Buxton grounded.

    On Wednesday, 1500ESPN.com’s Jake Depue spoke to the center fielder who elaborated on what he was trying to accomplish with the swing:

    “[The goal is] putting the ball in play more,” Buxton said. “Putting it on the ground more to get it out of the air. With the leg kick I was more fly ball oriented. It didn’t give me a chance to get on base. Now putting it on the ground I at least have the chance of beating it out or them rushing the throw and making an error.”

    Muh gawd.

    As we have come to learn about baseball, extra base hits are in the air and ground balls are simply long bunts. That is reason enough to focus on elevating the ball but now data shows that MLB’s ball -- intentionally or not -- is juiced. Hitters should take advantage of the added distance the balls provides.

    What’s more, the fact that Buxton is in the batter’s box looking to make enough contact that an infielder makes an error is beyond the pale. For starters, the fielding percentage (a dubious stat in its own right but that’s for another time) is over 98%. While the odds may increase based on his speed, the notion that the upside of your plate appearance is maybe the shortstop will bobble this one is absurd. Second, there are five bodies in the infield looking to knock down any grounder that comes their way. Teams use computing power to set up shifts which increase their odds of stopping those worm-burners from scooting through the infield. Why in the name of all that is holy would you want to construct your game around ground balls?

    Before readers start getting upset and bringing their pitchforks out at the Twins’ staff, two things: First, Buxton has actually shown signs of improvements when it comes to contact rate and the type of contact. The ground ball rate, which spiked dramatically the first two weeks with the new swing, has started to drop as well.

    His numbers in this stretch certainly don’t reflect success -- he is still striking out a ton and not reaching base -- but he’s starting to see positives from this approach.

    Second, it should be known that the Twins’ coaches are not actively trying to change their hitters into ground ball machines wholesale. For example, earlier this month the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller detailed that the Twins coaching staff was encouraging utility infielder Ehire Adrianza to switch to a leg kick from a double-toe tap:

    “I’m seeing the ball better, I’m recognizing pitches better. I don’t have to rush my swing like I was before,” he said. “Rudy [Hernandez] and James [Rowson] said, ‘Don’t be afraid. You can be a better hitter. You can hit doubles and homers.’ ”

    So, no, the Minnesota Twins do not have an evil plan to convert every hitter into Ben Revere. That said, it is frustrating to see a hitter with promise who has had previous success with one type of swing to have it reduced to such a level where they are hoping to beat out infield hits or incite errors. Buxton was once a five-tool player and there is an on-going effort to strip him of one.

    Baseball swing mechanics are not like ballroom dancing where if you follow step-by-step instructions, you can master the practice. With a swing, there’s a mental side of the game, a level of comfort each hitter needs in order to execute. And when it came to the toe tap mechanics the Twins outfitted him with in the minor leagues, Buxton acknowledged he was never truly comfortable with the motions. When he reflected back this spring on his success at the end last year, Buxton said he drew upon his carefree high school playing days as a motivating factor:

    “In high school, you just go up there and say, ‘All right, I’m about to see how far I can hit it.’ I knew high school was where I had fun. That’s where most kids start to realize what they want to do. I just went back to the moment when I was in high school.”

    That is a far superior mindset to have compared to just looking to get on base. Step into the box trying to see how far or how hard you can hit it. It shouldn’t matter what timing mechanism Buxton ultimately uses. There are players who have success with a leg kick, toe tap, no stride, leg glide, etc, etc. The endgame for Buxton should be getting him comfortable again in his own body and that does not seem to be happening with the current version.

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    I have never read of anyone who said Buxton has a 'compact swing'.

    Sending him to AAA would only reinforce his 'long swing'. He'll be able to hit those pitchers without making the adjustments necessary to succeed in MLB.

    It would be like sending Rosario down to learn to swing at strikes. In AAA Rosario can hit anything they throw that's reachable with bat. It would only reinforce bad habits.

     

    I don't know the solution. I do wonder if a fast, good CF with a OBP>=.330 would be better for the team than Buck looking hapless at the plate far more often than not.

    And then I wonder if they could get a promising AA pitcher for him...

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    Maybe bringing Granite up in place of Vargas and giving Granite some playing time would be beneficial. Perhaps a little more bench time would send the message to Buxton better than being in AAA. The message being you need to perform or you won't play.

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    I have never read of anyone who said Buxton has a 'compact swing'.

    Sending him to AAA would only reinforce his 'long swing'. He'll be able to hit those pitchers without making the adjustments necessary to succeed in MLB.

    It would be like sending Rosario down to learn to swing at strikes. In AAA Rosario can hit anything they throw that's reachable with bat. It would only reinforce bad habits.

     

    I don't know the solution. I do wonder if a fast, good CF with a OBP>=.330 would be better for the team than Buck looking hapless at the plate far more often than not.

    And then I wonder if they could get a promising AA pitcher for him...

    Buxton has 16 defensive runs saved this year, but he has just 32 runs produced this year with his offense and that is flat out terrible.  I am not saying defense does not matter.  It certainly does.  However, compared to pitching and offense defense is a distant third

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    Poor contact has to do with one of the following: 

     

    a poor swing plane

    poor timing

     

    The worse your swing plane, the harder it is to be on time with the swing. Focusing on hitting groundballs will probably make contact harder, not easier. Buxton is usually too early, I think he needs to just let the ball get deeper. I know that's not a new theory, but it's true... and it's easier said than done, takes a lot of practice and repetition. 

     

    http://www.efastball.com/images/hitting-ted-williams-swing-plane.jpg

     

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    I get the defense thing on Buxton. He has been fantastic in that respect. But you just have to hit something to be in an everyday lineup. Hovering around the Mendoza line for a half season doesn't cut it. Especially when you have a CF with speed in Zach Granite tearing it up in AAA. Even if Granite came up and hit 100 points less then he is in Rochester he would still be in the .260's and surely not striking out 33% of the time. Buxton needs to go back to AAA and get hot again. Otherwise all you really have is a late inning defensive replacement who happens to play everyday.

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    I get the defense thing on Buxton. He has been fantastic in that respect. But you just have to hit something to be in an everyday lineup. Hovering around the Mendoza line for a half season doesn't cut it. Especially when you have a CF with speed in Zach Granite tearing it up in AAA. Even if Granite came up and hit 100 points less then he is in Rochester he would still be in the .260's and surely not striking out 33% of the time. Buxton needs to go back to AAA and get hot again. Otherwise all you really have is a late inning defensive replacement who happens to play everyday.

    The common rebuttal I have been given for sending him back to AAA is, "he won't learn anything down there"

     

    Oh really?  Like he's learning anything up here?  One thing anyone should notice with Buxton if you watch his game and listen to his quotes on hitting is that he is not confident and he has literally no though process behind his at bats.  He also has tinkered and messed with mechanics over and over. Currently we have a player who is deserving of a promotion even though his name doesn't have the cache Buxton does.  What are we really trying to do here?  Can we at some point as fans admit that he just is not ready to step into a major league batter's box?

     

    I will admit I was part of a large crew of folks who thought it was best to call him up in 2015 even though he was rushed.  I felt that way at the time because I hoped he would show flashes and that he would fill in bad spots with more flashes of goodness until he eventually became solid.  Well, it's now three shots he has had and he is not even close.  In my opinion, he has to go down.  NOW.  In the name of his development AND accountability this cannot go on any longer.  The team has surprised us this year and we are near the top of the division in July.  Why not send him down and call up Granite?  Too "kneejerk"??  Please.  Maybe Granite can prove he belongs and now we have another outfielder to consider.  It's best to set up some competition.  I don't think it is a good thing to give one guy special treatment (coddling) it is starting to become that with Buxton.   Send him down like you would any other player and hopefully he goes to Rochester and picks up the pace.  You cannot let a guy experience this much failure and pretend it won't have long term implications on the mental part of his game.  You also cannot give one guy endless rope while another deserving player stays down.  It is not a good thing for an organization,

     

    Most of all, confidence seems to be an issue with Buxton.  The mental part of the game is something that can prevent a guy from becoming a major leaguer and he isn't going to get it by continually failing at the major league level.

    Edited by ewen21
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    I'm not so sure any of this matters.  His pitch recognition is horrible.  Throw Buxton breaking balls outside the strike-zone and he'll swing at it.  If he get's close to it, fouls it off, whatever, bust him inside and dump another break ball outside.  He will swing and he will miss.   

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    Yeah, Buxton sure looks broken. Sometimes people think they know everything about this game. In my experience, no one does. An approach that doesn't work for some does wonders for others.

    what does this even mean? He has an OPS of .568 over the last 2 weeks.......
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    I'm not convinced that the problems are mechanical flaws over simply being green.

     

    There are really no true red flags around Buxton. He is already providing value to the team, even with his weak bat. 

     

    Tell me, what would the Twins W-L record be right now without Buxton?

    Edited by Doomtints
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    I'm not convinced that the problems are mechanical flaws over simply being green.

     

    There are really no true red flags around Buxton. He is already providing value to the team, even with his weak bat. 

     

    Tell me, what would the Twins W-L record be right now without Buxton?

    I don't know enough about hitting to make an informed analysis, but in my "fan's view" I would say it is not so much a flaw and more like being really bad at pitch recognition.  Is that part of being inexperienced?  Probably.  After all, lots of guys have leg kicks (and other motions) and do just fine.  Clearly it is an approach that can be successful at the MLB level.  But what eliminating it does for Buxton is give him that extra split second to see the pitch and have a better chance to do something with it.  Perhaps with experience and better pitch recognition, he'll go back to it someday.  But what it does in the short term is turn him from a near automatic out into a useful MLB hitter.  Quite frankly, that's all he needs to be for the next couple years.  Useful.  Impactful hopefully in the future.

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    Even without the leg kick he still is kind of long as his hands are held high and it seems to take an extra split second to get to the zone. He's also off balance a lot-hes kind of a diver which doesn't help. Anyway glad for the improvement.

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    Just wanted to add something to this: Since the start of July, Buxton has lowered his hands (back to where they were in September of last year, btw) and has far less movement in bringing them back to the load position. It's very efficient compared to where he was just a few weeks ago. Plus, you see him loading more with his upper half (his numbers turning toward the pitcher more are indicative of this). The results have been more solid contact. 

     

    https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/883382416777326596

     

    Launch angle still needs work. He's not going to hit for power on the ground. I would argue that his "base hit" to third the other night against the Angels was also a gift from the official scorekeeper (a better throw would have gotten him but Pennington threw it away). Nevertheless, exit velocity doesn't lie. He's hitting the ball harder. It is a start. 

     

     

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    The article was written June 29. I would presume the change took place that same time. Since then he's hitting over .300 and struck out just 5 times in 26 plate appearance. That is progress.

    Yeesh. Has it only been a week since this was written. Seems like his non-leg-kick has been around so much longer. Since that is the case we really don't have any data to make a judgement one way or the other. It's just too SSS. Case in point his BABIP is .381 over that same span. When that normalizes his BA will drop, though perhaps not to his previous Mendozian levels.

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    Yeesh. Has it only been a week since this was written. Seems like his non-leg-kick has been around so much longer. Since that is the case we really don't have any data to make a judgement one way or the other. It's just too SSS. Case in point his BABIP is .381 over that same span. When that normalizes his BA will drop, though perhaps not to his previous Mendozian levels.

    With his speed, Buxton should have no problem maintaining a BABIP north of .350.

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    With his speed, Buxton should have no problem maintaining a BABIP north of .350.

    Do you have anything to support that claim? He doesn't hit the ball hard so that will negatively impact his BABIP.
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    Do you have anything to support that claim? He doesn't hit the ball hard so that will negatively impact his BABIP.

    Wouldn't not hitting the ball hard increase his chances of getting a hit if it is hit on the ground?

     

    How many infield hits does he have already this year that would be outs for anyone else? I remember two in the last week. Doesn't that increase his BABIP?

     

    Rod Carew had a career BABIP of almost .360. He certainly didn't hit the ball particularly hard. In his younger years, he was blazingly fast.

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    The article was written June 29. I would presume the change took place that same time. Since then he's hitting over .300 and struck out just 5 times in 26 plate appearance. That is progress.

    He deserved the criticism for being an awful hitter for almost 700 at bats. I will not apologize for the criticisms I made a little over a week ago. Nor should anyone else.  He has been one of the worst hitters in the major leagues over the last three seasons.  That is not a take.  It is a fact and it isn't mean spirited or wrong to point it out

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    Wouldn't not hitting the ball hard increase his chances of getting a hit if it is hit on the ground?

     

    How many infield hits does he have already this year that would be outs for anyone else? I remember two in the last week. Doesn't that increase his BABIP?

     

    Rod Carew had a career BABIP of almost .360. He certainly didn't hit the ball particularly hard. In his younger years, he was blazingly fast.

    So Your point is Buxton hitting the ball softer actually increases his BA? That seems an odd stance to take. The amount of hits added due to lower exit velocities on the ground would be more than cancelled by the reduction in hits to the gaps/outfield. Not to mention the corresponding drop in ISO.

     

    I've been searching for a correlation between speed and BABIP and while there is a general sentiment that speed positively increases BABIP the only study I could find showed a very low correlation (r^2=.08) between Bill James "speed score" and BABIP. If you find anything different I'd love to read it.

     

    Until then I'll remain skeptical that Buxton can maintain a .350 BABIP given his current exit velocities.

     

    Just to add some context to this, only 13 players in baseball had a BABIP >.350 in baseball last season. That doesn't include Billy Hamilton btw who has a .302 career BABIP in ~500 games.

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    So Your point is Buxton hitting the ball softer actually increases his BA? That seems an odd stance to take. The amount of hits added due to lower exit velocities on the ground would be more than cancelled by the reduction in hits to the gaps/outfield. Not to mention the corresponding drop in ISO.

     

    I've been searching for a correlation between speed and BABIP and while there is a general sentiment that speed positively increases BABIP the only study I could find showed a very low correlation (r^2=.08) between Bill James "speed score" and BABIP. If you find anything different I'd love to read it.

     

    Until then I'll remain skeptical that Buxton can maintain a .350 BABIP given his current exit velocities.

     

    Just to add some context to this, only 13 players in baseball had a BABIP >.350 in baseball last season. That doesn't include Billy Hamilton btw who has a .302 career BABIP in ~500 games.

    Hitting it softer would only help his average when he hits it on the ground. Like I said. Please don't change my words to bolster your argument.

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    Just wanted to add something to this: Since the start of July, Buxton has lowered his hands (back to where they were in September of last year, btw) and has far less movement in bringing them back to the load position. It's very efficient compared to where he was just a few weeks ago. Plus, you see him loading more with his upper half (his numbers turning toward the pitcher more are indicative of this). The results have been more solid contact.

     

     

     

    https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/883382416777326596

    This was always more relevant than his leg kick/no leg kick thing. The guys load and start to his swing was a hot mess. He's way shorter to the ball and is able to let the ball travel a little deeper on him. Nice to see
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