Beating Vegas: The Minnesota Twins

Over. 3rd in the division. Probably not much more than 85 wins, but .500.

Interested to hear the NL discussion around here

Under

Last year the Twins had a 73-89 BaseRuns record, and the lineup ranked 14th-AL in WAR and wRC+.

Terry Ryan didn't do much to upgrade the lineup, some of the most promising young talent is still in AAA (and I think Rosario will be spending more time there this season), and the Sano move to RF just seems bizarre. It wouldn't surprise me if Dozier and Plouffe decline a bit, too.

Even if Buxton, Sano, and Kepler step up, I don't think it will completely overcome cluster luck regression, and the rotation could look ugly for stretches of the season, too. I'm looking for a 77-85 record this year.

Over.  88 wins and 2nd place in the Central.

I had them at 78-84 for this year so I will go with under by a hair.  Always hopeful that this is wrong and they will be World Series winners! 

83 wins, and still 4th place.

I see the difference between the Twins and the other teams in the division kind of like this: if two or three things go wrong for Detroit, Chicago, and KC, and Cleveland on offense, the fortunes of those teams can change dramatically because of the lack of depth. But for the Twins, if a larger number of things go right for them, they might surprise in a big way. Not everything that could go right will go right, but there are a ton of possibilities for upside stories, and I still believe people are under-estimating the impact Buxton will have. The two reasons I'm not more optimistic are 1) the starting rotation, and 2) the lack of experience of the young ones

"The AL Central often turns into a war of attrition and when ammo starts running low, I like the Twins midseason reinforcements to be the difference."

Good take. I'll drink that elixir from here to 2018.

  On 4/4/2016 at 11:08 AM, spinowner said:

Whatever the Braves' line is, I'll take the under. How about you?

Depends on when they sell. When they sell off the vets like Markakis, Johnson, Grilli, Aybar, and etc., i could honestly see the young players coming up, and with their late schedule (a lot of games against the Phillies, Marlins, Reds, Padres, and Rockies, who will all be fighting for the top pick most likely), I could see a late push to really spoil those betting the under by getting 70-73 wins. I've seen in the range of 67-69 wins projected.

81 - 81.  E. Santana takes the challenge as the Ace and produces.  Gibson stays steady; a plus .500 starter.  Hughes and Nolasco fall to injuries, etc.  Twins suffer during the acclimation of Duffy and Berrios to the MLB.  Tommy Milone stays steady.

Twins hitting and defense are a tick above average, which keeps the team average.  With hope for a better 2017 with youth being integrated to MLB.

Honestly I could see the Twins anywhere from 75 to 85 wins, but I'm an optimist, so I'll take the OVER at 83 wins.  That'll be good for 2nd or 3rd in the Central, whose winner could have as low as 85 wins.

According to the pythagorean we won two more games than we should have last year so starting in the hole two games but I am always optimistic and I see  a lot of reasons for it compared to last year.    Mauer better, Buxton  instead of HIcks.  Santana for a whole year.  Escobar over 2015 D. Santana.    Park and Sano instead of Hunter/Arcia/Vargas/Sano.     Pen might be shallow but May and Jepsen over who we had for the first half of year.    If Duffey was in the rotation from the start I would feel a lot better about predicting 160-2.   Instead I will go with 87 wins.

78 wins would be pretty disappointing, I think. Over. 

If the line were 82.5, I'd be taking the under, but such as it is, Over.

78-84--Nolasco is released as is Abad. Plouffe is traded for a big piece of the 2017 World Series team. 

Milone is traded to this years World Series team for a top prospect.

Kepler debuts and remains. Duffy and JO Berrios come up to stay.

I'll take the over and hope for meaningful games in late September