Assessing the Twins Garver for Kiner-Falefa Trade

Not crazy about this deal, Garver can hit with ok defense. Don't like seeing him go for a good field/no hit SS.

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I have no idea why there is a perception Jeffers is a better defensive catcher than Garver.

Since the start of 2020 at the MLB Level.

Jeffers 832 Garver 620.2 innings. The better of the two = 

Steal Attempts = Garver 44 vs. Jeffers 75
Caught Stealing% = Garver 23% vs. Jeffers 20%
Catcher Framing = This one is a bit of a toss up. Garver ahead in some years, Jeffers ahead in others same with different sources.
Passed Balls = Jeffers 7 (every 119 innings) vs. Garver 7 (1 every 88.2 innings)
Wild Pitches = Garver 22 (1 every 28.1 innings) vs. Jeffers 32 (1 every 26 innings)
PB + WP = Garver 29 (1 every 21.2 innings) vs. Jeffers 39 (1 every 21.1 Innings) 
Errors = Garver 1 error (.998 fielding percentage) vs. Jeffers 4 errors (.995 fielding percentage)

• Garver is arguably better at controlling the run game, both in opponents' willingness to try to steal, and the likelihood they get caught stealing. 
• Garver is arguably equal with catcher framing.
• Garver is arguably the more reliable receiver.
• Garver is arguably less likely to commit an error.

Exactly why is it Jeffers is considered the better defensive catcher? Garver is an above average defensive catcher in most metrics when I've compared him to his peers.
 

I am with you.  Jeffers and Rortvedt have not proven themselves, Garver has and everything I read makes catcher the first or second most important position.  I thought a catcher would be worth more than the man who is being moved off SS to 3B for the Rangers.  I might be under estimating his value and I hope I am.  It is not a bad trade, I just wonder about our catcher position and the value that Garver seemed to have. 

59 minutes ago, Monticore said:

Not crazy about this deal, Garver can hit with ok defense. Don't like seeing him go for a good field/no hit SS.

So many are referring to K-F as a light hitting or no hitting shortstop.  I understand that he doesn’t hit for much power.  But didn’t he play almost every day last year with a .271 batting average?  How many Twins hit better than .271 last year?

I have a lot of faith in Jeffers and Falefa.

Very dumb trade… just proves this front office has no clue what is going on!!!

3 hours ago, roger said:

So many are referring to K-F as a light hitting or no hitting shortstop.  I understand that he doesn’t hit for much power.  But didn’t he play almost every day last year with a .271 batting average?  How many Twins hit better than .271 last year?

A .271 average isn’t good when you don’t hit the ball hard he’s an upgrade over Simmons sure but for Garver is an absolute joke 

I am really starting to feel that the front office is going to treat this season as a developmental year. The complete failure up to this point in putting together a starting rotation (with a payroll under $100M) seems like an indication that we will see a lot of prospects getting significant time this season.

I'm expecting to see a lot of the prospects who have already made their MLB debuts (Ryan, Ober, Jax, Moran, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Celestino, and Gordon) make the opening day roster. I would also expect to see a significant number of the Lewis, Martin, Balazovic, Richardson, Duran, Miranda, Winder, Canterino, Sands, Henriquez, Vallimont, and Strotman group fairly early as well. This is the year where we really find out how good Falvey and Levine are at scouting and developing talent (with a strong emphasis on the development of starting pitching).

I won't be surprised to see Donaldson, Sano, Rogers, Bundy, Duffey, and Thielbar getting moved for prospects by the trade deadline (or even before the season starts in some cases). I even wonder if Polanco and Kepler would be available for the right offer.

13 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Gotta give to get. IKF provides excellent to elite defense in middle infield, but then so did Simmons. Who knows how long Garver will remain at C, and/or slug at high levels. The pitching suspect coming back...meh.....hope it works out. He's a small guy with high velo...we shall see.

Not a great deal for Twins, but after Simmons signed, options were limited if they were going to plug the SS hole and NOT SPEND MONEY DOING IT. This seems as fair a compromise as we can expect.

Does open up question(s) about Miranda's or Arraez's future, or even Donaldson's. It would seem there are more moves on the horizon.

No, no you do know have to give to get zero.  Three shortstops signed today for $5.5 million or less, all of them pretty equivalent to IKF.  You're saying the Twins weren't willing to add this amount to their $90 million payroll and so needed to trade away a decent or, potentially midseason, great asset?

Maybe the dumbest thing I've seen the Twins do since trading Wilson Ramos.

2 hours ago, ToriiRules!! said:

A .271 average isn’t good when you don’t hit the ball hard he’s an upgrade over Simmons sure but for Garver is an absolute joke 

We are comparing IKF's last year to Simmons' last year at the plate, not their overall career and potential for bouncing back or regressing.  And he rates behind Simmons in defense overall.  Not sure why folks are thinking this is an upgrade.   Agreed that giving Garver for him is funny; as in strange, not as in ha ha.  Unless SS is not where they intend to keep him for long.  But then this FO loves players who have no permanent position and pitchers who can't get through a lineup twice, much less three times, so he fits right into their roster. 

I think Kiner-Falefa is a better hitter than it may seem.  He doesn’t have the huge OPS number that today’s analytics salivate over.  However, his OBP is over 300.  Texas has not been very good the last couple years, which I think is why Kiner-Falefa batted 1 or 2 in their line-up.  Last year, Kiner-Falefa has 677 plate appearances.  Of the 677,  584 where when he batted 1 or 2 in the line-up.  He had 71 plate appearance batting 7.  His BA when batting 7 was .343 and his OPS was .873.  Kiner-Falefa won’t lead off or bat 2 for the Twins even with Garver gone.  I am thinking he bats between 7-9.  I am not expecting an batting title or an OPS at .870 for him, but I think he will improve on his career numbers.  OPS .730-.750 is reasonable.

I think a capable bat for Kiner-Falea is Josh Harrison.  Harrison’s life time OPS is .719.  A .050 jump in OPS for Kiner-Falea would put him at Harrison’s level, which I think is reasonable.

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

We are comparing IKF's last year to Simmons' last year at the plate, not their overall career and potential for bouncing back or regressing.  And he rates behind Simmons in defense overall.  Not sure why folks are thinking this is an upgrade.   Agreed that giving Garver for him is funny; as in strange, not as in ha ha.  Unless SS is not where they intend to keep him for long.  But then this FO loves players who have no permanent position and pitchers who can't get through a lineup twice, much less three times, so he fits right into their roster. 

They didn't trade Garver for IKF.  The traded Garver for IKF and a pitching prospect.  Most everyone is looking at this purely from a current year lens.  I agree it makes no sense if Henriquez has no value.  If the front office believes he has value, and if you look beyond the current year, this is not a strange move at all.  This is the exact pattern they followed in Cleveland so I don't find it at all curious they would make this type of trade.

Guys, the Twins didn't trade the 2019 version of Mitch Garver for the 2021 version of IKF - this was a trade for the 2022 version of both players.

The Twins clearly think that the 32 year-old catcher's best years are behind him. His trade value is at its peak right now. They also think IKF's best years are AHEAD of him, and that his numbers will improve as he hits his athletic prime. Plus they got a AA arm that they think has potential to contribute next year. How can you hate that idea before we even see what happens?

They were never going to get a #3 starter for Garver. Obviously they tried, and nobody bit. They got the best they could and it was for an on-the-rise guy that fills a hole at a key defensive position.

In short: Jeffers takes a step forward, IKF takes a step forward, Henriquez takes a step forward, while Garver takes a step backwards. That's the idea. Is that all so unlikely? Would you still hate the trade if that all happens?

Not a fan of this trade.  Lite hitting SS with a good glove.....that has not worked for us in the past.   How far off is Palacios from matching Kiner-Falefa's batting numbers?  His defense might be close.  And then you still have Garver.

I'm ambivalent about the trade.  I guess time will tell.  It does kind of show a pattern going on for the year.  That is we don't care about fielding a major league team in 2022.  It also shows that we are probably seeing a significant payroll dump in progress.  Garver, although not perfect by any means, was a veteran presence behind the plate.  It's a little ironic that while depending on unproven and inexperienced young arms we trade away the only real veteran catcher we had to help settle in these pitchers.  I also find it almost amusing that people say Garver was injured too much so it's good to get rid of him.  The same and more could be said of Buxton yet people call him a superstar though he seldom plays.  This year I think Buxton plays a whole year but will be a huge disappointment at the plate.  Most notable national publications are calling the twins pitching staff a joke at this point. But will be embarrassing if these pitchers are all we have this year.  I think the FO is making a statement on a rebuild.  I just hope it doesn't last for years like the previous ones.

It's an interesting deal. It's really easy to find things to like and hate about it, depending on where you stand on the current ability and potential upside of the primary players involved in it. Both teams were trading from positions of relative strength at the major league level, but still cost themselves depth and talent.

Garver: is he a young 31, a catcher without too many miles on him, that will be able to pound fastballs well into his 30's while still holding up for 80-100 games behind the dish while getting 20-40 more games at 1B and DH...or is he player heading into his decline phase as a player, where the injuries are going to pile up every year and he will struggle to stay on the field at all? Anyone who says they know for sure is really just guessing.

Kiner-Falefa: is he a slick-fielding SS who might still have a little additional hitting and power to unlock going into his age 27 season who can easily bridge the gap until Royce Lewis is ready to take over, or even hold on to the job for a while if he's not...or is he a no-hit utility guy whose numbers last season were a bit fluky and might be stretched a little at SS?

Where you stand on those positions probably defines whether you like this deal for the Twins or not. I'm a bit betwixt and between: I don't think Garver is cooked, so losing his offense at catcher is a blow, because there are so few catchers that can hit like that when right. But it's fair to ask whether he can stay on the field: over the past three seasons, Garver has actually played fewer games than Byron Buxton. So he might be a part-time player?

I'm also of the belief that Kiner-Falefa's defense at SS is quality and last season's numbers were a fluke, so he's certainly a good fit. He might be what we thought we were going to get from Simmons last year: very good defense and enough singles to not be a drag on the lineup. I don't expect him to suddenly start knocking balls out of the yard, but he's unlikely to get worse at the dish right now, so if he's putting up an OPS in the .675 range while playing quality defense, then we've got a starting SS again, and with his flexibility he could easily drop into a utility role if Royce is ready in 2023 and give them plus defense off the bench at multiple positions who could comfortably step in for an extended period.

I think it's a decent balancing of the roster. In comparison to last year, the Twins look to be better...because Simmons was epically bad at the plate and Garver was hurt, and Kiner-Falefa was quality and healthy. Projecting for this season it's more likely a bit of a push: Garver's better, but will almost certainly play less (whether for injury or rest) than Kiner-Falefa, so their total value might end up being pretty similar? Because of positional need, I think this is a pretty good move for the Twins...but then again, I'm also a fan of Jeffers, whom I think will step in and perform well. 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

They didn't trade Garver for IKF.  The traded Garver for IKF and a pitching prospect.  Most everyone is looking at this purely from a current year lens.  I agree it makes no sense if Henriquez has no value.  If the front office believes he has value, and if you look beyond the current year, this is not a strange move at all.  This is the exact pattern they followed in Cleveland so I don't find it at all curious they would make this type of trade.

We also need to put a cost on the lost 40 man roster spot given to Henriquez. Henriquez on the 40 will result in someone being DFA’d that otherwise would not have been removed. 

Henriquez has almost no trade value because of his roster status. Similar players will be DFA’d and the Rangers likely assessed that they were going to lose him at some point this year.

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

.271/.312/.357

85 OPS+

That's probably about what can be expected.

 

He's not an offensive asset. He's a liability. 

Some of us still value batting average, Chief.  Personally, I don't even know what OPS+ is.  What I do know is that last year only three Twins had averages higher than .271 (not counting two pitchers and another guy who all had 6 ab or less), Cruz, Arraez and Polanco.  And two of the three had less than half his ab and Polanco had substantially less.  

I am not saying he is going to be their top hitter.  What I am saying is a guy who hits .271 and plays every day ain't an offensive liability.  

As a result of this trade, the Rangers need someone to play 3B. Hmmmm.  Who might be available ?   

Max Kepler was asked who the Twins got for Garver and what he thought of the trade. Max said," Einer Kerfuffle."

This is a disappointing trade. Not awful in isolation, but discouraging for what it portends. The only reason to do this versus signing Simmons or Iglesias is to save money. They all are a bit different but they are, mas o menos, the same player.  The signing of Gray does nothing to change my POV.

I am not an ownership basher. I think the Pohlads are perfectly fine owners. They will not dip into their pocket to fund the team like the Mets' Cohen, but neither do they live off the league feedbag like the Orioles or Guardians. 

But with the expanded playoffs and residing in the worst division in baseball, to spend just a bit more than comfort seems to be what an owner as a fan would do.  

All the quality free agent SP are gone. That leaves only trades. I would rather have Garver and a few less dollars when I went shopping. 

As an aside- why do people bash Donaldson on this site? He is exactly the player the Twins expected when they signed him. 

I can talk to folks down here into going to the Saturday night Sunday usually day game. It's a couple hour road trip from ATX. Falefa always a tough out. Not uncommon for him to knock a couple of ribeye's in. He occasionally put one over fence, or strong alley power. Basically a left center double machine. I'm happy he is in a Twins uni. Solid player a little old school in him. He passes my eye test. 

11 hours ago, bighat said:

Guys, the Twins didn't trade the 2019 version of Mitch Garver for the 2021 version of IKF - this was a trade for the 2022 version of both players.

The Twins clearly think that the 32 year-old catcher's best years are behind him. His trade value is at its peak right now. They also think IKF's best years are AHEAD of him, and that his numbers will improve as he hits his athletic prime. Plus they got a AA arm that they think has potential to contribute next year. How can you hate that idea before we even see what happens?

They were never going to get a #3 starter for Garver. Obviously they tried, and nobody bit. They got the best they could and it was for an on-the-rise guy that fills a hole at a key defensive position.

In short: Jeffers takes a step forward, IKF takes a step forward, Henriquez takes a step forward, while Garver takes a step backwards. That's the idea. Is that all so unlikely? Would you still hate the trade if that all happens?

 

 

Good argument.