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  • Arbitration: Who Stays, Who Goes?


    Nick Nelson

    It's been a slow offseason thus far, with little Twins-related news outside of coaching hires and procedural roster moves, but an important date falls on Tuesday, which marks the deadline for MLB clubs to offer 2015 contracts to unsigned players.

    That means that the Twins will need to make decisions on all of their arbitration-eligible players.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski

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    They already made their call on one of those players, when they announced last week that they had outrighted right-hander Anthony Swarzak from the 40-man roster, effectively making him a free agent.

    I always felt that Swarzak was somewhat undervalued, because although he was unspectacular, he was pretty solid as a long reliever thanks to his durable arm and his consistent ability to come in and throw strikes for multiple innings.

    There was nothing glamorous about his role -- he was usually called on to simply soak up innings in an eventual loss following a short start -- but since 2012 Swarzak has ranked second among all MLB relievers in innings pitched, and he has a career 3.66 ERA out of the bullpen.

    Having said all that, Swarzak's job is not one you want to pay much more than the minimum to cover, and the Twins have plenty of other players that they could utilize or evaluate in that role. Ultimately, the team decided to go in a new direction.

    Might they make the same choice with some of their other arbitration-eligible players? Let's go through them on a case-by-case basis (contract estimates from the Offseason Handbook):

    Trevor Plouffe, 3B

    Estimated Salary: $5M

    That estimate might be a little on the high side (MLB Trade Rumors predicted $4.3 million) but Plouffe will be in line for a hefty raise in his second go at arbitration. This year he made $2.35 million and set career highs in several categories, including plate appearances, doubles, RBI and OPS+. Retaining him is a no-brainer, though I think it's best to stay year-to-year with him for now rather than looking at a long-term extension.

    Stay or Go: Stay

    Brian Duensing, LHP

    Estimated Salary: $3.5M

    This is Duensing's third turn at arbitration. Last year he got a $700K raise up to $2 million and this time he'll probably be in line for a larger increase, since he posted an improved ERA and WHIP with a similar workload. The lefty-stifling Duensing is what he is at this point: very adequate in a role that is not hard to fill for less $3 million. Since the money isn't that big of a deal, what it really comes down to is whether the Twins have another lefty reliever they trust outside of Caleb Thielbar. I'd guess they can find one.

    Stay or Go: Go

    Tommy Milone, LHP

    Estimated Salary: $2.5M

    This might be the trickiest arbitration decision the Twins face. On the one hand, here's an established big-league starter who's only 27 with a 3.98 career ERA. On the other hand, he's never been anything special, and he was terrible after coming to Minnesota, and you could argue that the Twins have at least six guys who should be in line for starts ahead of him. I think he's tendered, but hopefully his elevated pay doesn't influence whether or not he makes the roster next spring.

    Stay or Go: Stay

    Casey Fien, RHP

    Estimated Salary: $2M

    Though he wasn't quite as good in 2014 as he was in his breakout 2013 season, Fien was plenty valuable as a late-inning reliever. With Jared Burton and Swarzak gone, he's suddenly the most experienced righty in the bullpen. He'll be back.

    Stay or Go: Stay

    Jordan Schafer, OF

    Estimated Salary: $1.6M

    When he was acquired off waivers in August after being cut by the Braves with a .468 OPS, I figured Schafer's chances of sticking with the Twins for any significant length of time were low. But, in an admittedly short 40-game stretch, the 27-year-old played some of the best ball of his big-league career here in Minnesota, looking every bit the part of at least a quality fourth outfielder. Even if you don't expect him to keep up at that rate (and you shouldn't), he's young and he's got all the requisite skills to be worth keeping around, especially with the Twins' outlook in the outfield clouded by delayed prospect arrivals.

    Stay or Go: Stay

    Eduardo Nunez, IF/OF

    Estimated Salary: $1M

    This should be an easy decision. Although he offered some positional flexibility after coming over in a trade from the Yankees, appearing all over the field, Nunez was quite bad both offensively and defensively. His job should go to an internal candidate with some upside, or a new pickup who brings more to the table.

    Stay or Go: Go

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    I think the article reflects the consensus of TD posters this offseason.  This is probably pretty close to an accurate prognostication, as well.  However, while I am intrigued with Schafer's base-stealing tool and his decent hitting with the Twins, I wonder if his career numbers speak louder.  I also like Nuñez as a utility guy, particularly if he could play a decent left field (the metrics were pretty good last year, my eyes saw an infielder playing outfield).  He also offers very good speed and a righty bat.

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    I think Duensing is non-tendered. Logan Darnell can perform his role out of the 'pen in '15.

     

    Wouldn't mind seeing Eduardo Nunez tendered, if only to see if he beats the over/under on the number of times he's expected to lose his helmet while running the bases!

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    I agree with your prognosis. Unfortunately Swarzak has price himself out of the market. He's done a very good job for the role he was assigned, but can be replaced with a cheaper version. Such is the business of MLB. Same with Duesing. If the Twins were a WS team they might be tendered. Not now. I think they might keep Nunez to start the season. Who do we have that would replace him? Drawing a blank. Not sure they'd go outside for someone for that role.

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    Swarzak is interesting. He really didn't price himself out of the market, but he doesn't really have a true role, either. The spot starter experiment has all but failed. And you can replace him with any number of other guys, including the$5 million Pelfrey. It will be interesting to see if he gets a roster spot, or jsut a minor league spring training invite.

     

    Duensing also has reduced value since he no longer spot starts, and he ahs become a short-short reliever to boot. You don't need a situational lefty with his few positives for $3 million. Throw Aaron Thompson out there. Give Logan Darnell the chance.

     

    Again, as I have repeatedly posted, I am just mad that the Twins failed to flip eitehr of the above for any sort of prospect. Maybe NO ONE wanted them. We will see this off-season.

     

    Nunez is hurt by the Santana at short scenario. If Santana stays in the outfield, he becomes the backuo. If Santana goes to short, Escobar becomes the backup. Not that being a backup is a necessity for the twins. We have Beresford, Hanson and Bernier waiting in the wings to ride the bench. Again, someone probably NO ONE wants.

     

    IF THE TWINS SIGN an outfielder or two, Schafer finds no room on the bench. He may become 2015's Alex Pressley.

     

    The more and more I look at Tommy Milone, I say -- let him go. Not worth the monetary gamble. We got him for Sam Fueld, which we got for minimal money in the first place. I saw nothing in Milone myself. Who knows, he might be the Vance Worley of 2015. I'm not willing to gamble on that. Sorry.

     

    Somehow Plouffe has increased his value. The Twins still have two more arbitration rounds with the guy, but he will become expensive. He stays, but what the future holds for this first round draftee is to be seen.

     

    Basically, you let guys go if they are too expensive for whatever you can replace them with, either in your system or from others. You escape the arbitration process by signing them to a minor league invite contract. Give guys another year to prove their worth. The Twins could do this with Schafer, but I think he would be grabbed by someone. 

     

    Lots and lots of fodder on the roster. Too much, really. Fryer, Colabello,,Thompson, to name a few.

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    The more I think about it, the more I think all six remaining are tendered. The only one I am not pretty sure about is Nunez. 

     

    Plouffe, Fien and Schafer would appear to be givens. 

     

    I think Duensing is a given. His salary, even in his final year of arbitration is nothing to worry about at all. He's a guy who has done the job for quite awhile now. Not great, but very solid. No need to just give a guy like that away for nothing. Worst case in offering him arbitration, you can still get something for a 31 year old lefty. 

     

    Nunez is the only one I'm on the fence on. Not that he's good defensively, but he can play 5 positions. Having a guy like that as a 2nd utility guy has value. And again, he won't make more than $1 million. 

     

    Milone is more of a question for me than Duensing. He'll likely be more expensive than Duensing and there are more question marks about his potential role. He's a SP and I don't think he has the stuff to be a one-inning or LOOGY type. He has an option left, but his spot in the rotation is a question mark. He could be a non-tender option too.

     

    Those three are far from easy choices, though I think Duensing is a pretty easy choice to tender. The other two are much more difficult. 

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    If the Twins add no position players, I have Nuñez making the team and serving as a platoon left fielder.  Is that ideal?  Absolutely not, but until the Twins add someone who offers what Nuñez provides (versatility, RH bat, speed) I think he stays with the Twins. 

     

    On the pitching front, injuries and ineffectiveness happen.  Milone and Pelfrey currently slot as starters #6-7 and I think one of them (Pelfrey) fills the role vacated by Swarzak.  Milone has an option remaining, so if he doesn't make the rotation in the spring, he could be sent to Triple A.  Specifically regarding this thread, I think his track record is too strong to non-tender him. 

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    The problem with keeping Duensing is options, and the willingness to send him to the minors......a team with numerous questions in the rotation needs to be able to send pitchers up and down to get them rest. There is no reason for a team this bad to pay a marginal RP $3MM. None at all. Plus, it would be nice if they actually used their minor league system, instead of talking about how great it is.....

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    Twins will have to tender Duensing,  too good a record to give away.  Hope they can package him for something.  Would not cry over it if non tendered.  Nunez is a question mark and I could see him non tendered, depends on what the Twins do with some of the marginal players now on the 40 man.  If they cut 4-5 of them would not bother me.

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    My guess is that these decisions were already made weeks ago by Terry Ryan, and he has kept his cards close to his vest.

     

    Nuñez and Duensing should both be able to find work somewhere, I think they don't fit in the Twins' plans in the short term.

     

    Nothing particularly wrong with either guy, just that they are taking up roster space and have not created enough separation from their peers to be retained over adding more of the young guys from the farm system.

     

    What is the contract status of the three Chris' ? Are they already under contract for 2015, or do they have to be extended a contract by Tuesday as well (arb eligible or not)? Herrmann, Colabello, Parmelee could all be packing their bags and I think the Twins would be able to replace their contributions with either FA signings or with promotions to guys like Rosario.

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    I think Duensing best represents the disconnect between fan expectations for ceiling and front office desire for stability.

     

    I don't think we value what Duensing brings to the table nearly as much as the team does, we see his role as expendable where as the team would be extremely uncomfortable not having the veteran lefty with a decent track record available to them.

     

    I agree the Twins keep him and don't mind paying for a safety net.  Ironically, it may be his arb increase that takes Duensing out of all our speculative trade talks, other clubs likely don't want to pay that kind of money for a non-closer bullpen arm.

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    I think Nick nailed it.     Have to give Duensing a little shout out though.   His best two years were in 2009 and 2010 when it really meant something.   He came up big in two division titles.

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    I guess I didn't think Milone looked very good either but 83 AL starts with a better career ERA than Hughes and Gibson  and much better than Correia, Pelfrey and Nolasco  who all got the benefit of pitching mostly in the NL.   What happened?

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    I mostly agree with the choices but I would bring back Nunez and Milone.  Milone mainly because it is a cheap way to get another look at a guy who has had success and the fact that he has an option left could be very valuable for our pitching staff next year.

     

    I think they bring Nunez back because I am still not convinced that Santana won't end up playing centerfield some / a lot.  Things means that Nunez is the utility guy and a far better choice in this role than anybody else they have.

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    I think Duensing best represents the disconnect between fan expectations for ceiling and front office desire for stability.

     

    I don't think we value what Duensing brings to the table nearly as much as the team does, we see his role as expendable where as the team would be extremely uncomfortable not having the veteran lefty with a decent track record available to them.

     

    I agree the Twins keep him and don't mind paying for a safety net.  Ironically, it may be his arb increase that takes Duensing out of all our speculative trade talks, other clubs likely don't want to pay that kind of money for a non-closer bullpen arm.

     

    And that's why the bullpen gets tired every year, they refuse to be "uncomfortable" with young players. It is maddening that a rebuilding team won't give RP roles to guys that are dominating AAA or even AA, and yet feel no issue giving CF to such a player.

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    What is the contract status of the three Chris' ? Are they already under contract for 2015, or do they have to be extended a contract by Tuesday as well (arb eligible or not)? Herrmann, Colabello, Parmelee could all be packing their bags and I think the Twins would be able to replace their contributions with either FA signings or with promotions to guys like Rosario.

     

    They don't have contracts, but they're also under team control. The Twins could DFA them to make room on the 40 man roster, but if they don't, the Twins will likely sign them (to barely over league minimum) about the time spring training starts. 

     

    What has to be determined tomorrow is the status of their arbitration-eligible players. Those three have too little MLB service time to qualify. 

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    Those three are far from easy choices, though I think Duensing is a pretty easy choice to tender. The other two are much more difficult. 

    I dunno. There's certainly a decent argument for keeping Duensing around since you know what you have, but I wouldn't say it's a "given" by any means. Finding lefties who can get same-sided hitters out isn't hard, and Duensing also happens to be completely terrible against righties, which really limits his utility especially at that price.

     

    Is there any reason to think Darnell can't do the job at least as well? That's going to be his future role, so might as well let him start settling into it while saving a couple mil. Here are his numbers against lefties in the minors the last two years:

     

    2014 (AAA): .239/.289/.317

    2013 (AA/AAA): .220/.289.306

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    I mostly agree with the choices but I would bring back Nunez and Milone.  Milone mainly because it is a cheap way to get another look at a guy who has had success and the fact that he has an option left could be very valuable for our pitching staff next year.

     

    I think they bring Nunez back because I am still not convinced that Santana won't end up playing centerfield some / a lot.  Things means that Nunez is the utility guy and a far better choice in this role than anybody else they have.

    I'm really hoping our management change means we WON'T be seeing guys playing out of position just to fill a need. It's time to put Santana at SS, and leave him there. Playing him in CF made no sense if we're looking toward the future. Buck is the CF of the future, and it's time to find out if we have our SS of the future.

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    They don't have contracts, but they're also under team control. The Twins could DFA them to make room on the 40 man roster, but if they don't, the Twins will likely sign them (to barely over league minimum) about the time spring training starts. 

     

    What has to be determined tomorrow is the status of their arbitration-eligible players. Those three have too little MLB service time to qualify. 

    So the deadline to offer players like that a contract is Spring Training? At what point would they become free agents if the Twins did nothing at all?

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    Nick is right about all of this.

     

    I don't understand why anyone argues for keeping Duensing around. It's 6 times the money for perhaps a worse outcome! Darnell deserves the tryout. Maybe Milone if that starter thing fails. Duensing isn't even a strong LOOGY candidate at this point!

     

    Nunez is easily replaced, as he doesn't really belong in the field at all and his bat is very weak. He just runs well.

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    Swarzak back is an interesting case. When you non-tender a guy, he can look over the marketplace. Because you cut him, chances are he doesn't care if he comes back or not (unless you are Glen Perkins, remember, who was waivered out and couldn't get a claim, and now happy to be a Twin, still). You non-tender a guy because you don't think he is worth what he will ask in arbitration. Many players aren't. The evils of the system, you lose guys this way (think Ortiz). But right now, the Twins don't need Swarzak. They actually don't need Duensing. Or Milone. Or Nunez. And non of the three Chris guys either. What they need are hungry players who will strive to be productive and get a chance for a bigger payday (Schafer filled that bill, Fuld did it with the Twins, but not the A's, Morales failed miserably). Let's see what Terry Ryan can find.

     

    Anyone wonder iof Casey Fein might be Jared Burton 2014 in 2015? Here's a guy the overworked in September. He was a decent trading chip for the Twins in the summer.

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    Milone can't break a pane of glass with his fastball, so who cares if he has options?We need BETTER pitchers, not more of the same guys with 87 MPH fastballs. The guy is no Jamie Moyer. Duenslinger is on the bubble, but he is a better choice than Milone. Bye to Cola and Parm. 

     

    I think we need to bring up the kids an let them play.

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    I think you have to keep Milone. I still think he can be better than the majority of the AAAA filler and career #5s we've had lately.  Bottom line is that I think he'll be worth more to the Twins than $2.5 mil. Guys get injured, so you need depth. You can't pass up an opportunity to keep a guy with a decent MLB track record approaching what should be his prime for only $2.5 mil and the option to stash him at AAA. A lot of teams would snap up that opportunity in a heartbeat on the free market I think.

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