AL Central Rundown: Catchers

dbminn · February 16, 2021

Nice writeup. The AL Central is strong at catcher. My order is definitely different:

Sox (A) - Grandal is the best AL catcher and he's resilient.

Twins (A-) - Best combo in the AL when considering their success as starters. Gallagher and Collins might have promise but they're not proven.

Royals (A-) - Perez is coming off a career year with the bat. I put the Royals combo a fraction behind the Twins. I wouldn't trade Garver and Jeffers for the Royals pair.

Cleveland (B+) - Solid defense for a team that relies on pitching.

Tigers © - Ok. Ramos was a good veteran acquisition.

DocBauer · February 17, 2021

There is some good catching in the Central, no doubt! Based on what we've seen of Jeffers thus far, and what we've seen from Garver previously, the only thing keeping the Twins from being an A, in my opinion, is Jeffers continuing his early results and Garver just being himself, though I don't expect a repeat of 2019 and never have.

Jamie Cameron · February 17, 2021

Great writeup! LOL to the poll. Grandal is the best by a mile, but the Twins depth is enviable.

mikelink45 · February 17, 2021

I cannot judge the Twins yet. I was really impressed by Jeffers, but I need to see which Garver is the real one - 2019 or 2020.

I really liked the summary. You made me curious about the pipeline - if they go down what prospects are ready to step in? Notes from Prospects1500.com and the number is their rank among prospects in their system.

19. C Sebastian Rivero* KC

Age: 22

Highest Level: Triple-A (PCL)

A 2015 J2 signing out of Venezuela, Rivero has quickly, especially for a catcher, ascended onto the 40-man roster. 6’1″ 195, Rivero is a very advanced backstop for his age. All the defensive tools are there and reports are his game-calling has made huge strides, but don’t dismiss his offensive potential either.

The offense is and will probably always be behind the defense, but Rivera has had success against older competition. As a 19-year-old in Low-A, he hit .258/.301/.391 59/17 K/BB with 7 HR. He is quick to the ball and has advanced pitch selection and recognition for his age. Catcher investments are questionable in dynasty, but Rivero is young, close, and not lacking attractive fantasy skills at a position with a low bar.

7. Dillon Dingler, C (2020 Rank: Unranked) Detroit
Age: 22
Highest Level: College

Looking past Dingler’s poor choice of colleges (ohio), his glove, position flexibility, and leadership qualities give Dingler an above average projection right out of the 2020 Draft. His ability to call a MLB game and handle a young rotation will be benefited by having manger AJ Hinch in the dugout. If the Tigers can add another veteran catcher to the organization (hearing Yadier Molina in multiple channels), Dingler could develop even faster. Dingler could be an All-Star during his prime years if the contact hitting develops versus a power-or-nothing approach.

19. Seby Zavala, C White Sox
Age: 27
Highest level: MLB

Zavala is the kind of gritty hard working catcher that coaches love. He is a gifted defender with an athletic build and he earns praise from his pitchers as a quality game caller. With the bat he exhibits plus power but his aggressive approach has generated low walk and high strikeout totals. I remain convinced he will be a solid backup catcher in the big leagues.

8. Bo Naylor, C Cleveland Indians
Age: 20
Highest Level: A

Another alternate site invitee, Naylor continues to be the apparent Indians catcher of the future. Naylor is an exceptional defender, but he still has some work to do at the plate. If Naylor can improve his on base numbers, he’ll rise quickly, as there aren’t any catchers blocking him. Timing works in Naylor’s favor, as well: Roberto Perez is under contract through 2022. If the team continues to cut payroll and Naylor has a strong season, Perez could be on the move before the 2022 season. Keep a close eye on Naylor’s development for a potential near future catching option.

I skipped Ryan Jeffers who is number 8 on this sites listing, because he is already here. - Next:

36. Ben Rortvedt, C Twins
Age: 23
Highest Level: AA
The Twins curiously protected him before the Rule 5 Draft, thus adding him to the 40-man roster. His bat has never been his strength, since his framing and arm strength have always anchored him to whatever success he’s had. If he can somehow figure out how to improve his bat, he’ll be a Twin, possibly alongside Jeffers down the line.

Dodecahedron · February 17, 2021

I'm not convinced that offensive stats are what make a good catcher, though it's certainly a "nice to have."

I'm also not convinced Garver still has to prove himself offensively. He performed well through the minors, last year was goofball, and it's unlikely he will suddenly forget how to hit for the rest of his career.

Was Garver fighting a nagging injury last year?

bobs · February 17, 2021

As a pair, Garver/Jeffers put the Twins at the top in the division. But certainly can't argue that Salvy and Grandal are the top two catchers individually.

Thegrin · February 17, 2021

This is an interesting way to look at our competition. I hope you continue and include the top prospects for each ot the teams, as well.

prouster · February 18, 2021

I'm also not convinced Garver still has to prove himself offensively. He performed well through the minors, last year was goofball, and it's unlikely he will suddenly forget how to hit for the rest of his career.

He stopped hitting fastballs, which is a pretty big red flag. If you can’t hit fastballs, MLB pitchers will eat you for lunch. Hopefully he finds his stroke again. We’ll see what happens with him if the ball is indeed deadened, as the league says it will be.

Dodecahedron · February 19, 2021

He stopped hitting fastballs, which is a pretty big red flag. If you can’t hit fastballs, MLB pitchers will eat you for lunch. Hopefully he finds his stroke again. We’ll see what happens with him if the ball is indeed deadened, as the league says it will be.

I have not been able to find data to back this up. Can you point me in the right direction?

For the data I can see, there are two things that stand out:

- He was hitting the ball just as hard as before, but his launch angle increased 3 degrees. He was not getting good contact.

- He was swinging and missing on more pitches, both inside and outside of the strike zone.

Everything I can see suggests this was a standard, boring, run-of-the-mill hitter's slump which he was probably trying to overcompensate for, amplified by a shortened season.

prouster · February 19, 2021

I have not been able to find data to back this up. Can you point me in the right direction?

For the data I can see, there are two things that stand out:

- He was hitting the ball just as hard as before, but his launch angle increased 3 degrees. He was not getting good contact.
- He was swinging and missing on more pitches, both inside and outside of the strike zone.

Everything I can see suggests this was a standard, boring, run-of-the-mill hitter's slump which he was probably trying to overcompensate for, amplified by a shortened season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mitch-garver/15161/stats#pitch-values

Fangraphs' Pitch Value tool shows how a hitter fared against different pitch types. 0.0 is average. Above that is above average, and below is of course below average. Garver murdered fastballs in 2019 (24.8) and had a really hard time with them last year (-3.6).

On top of that, the percentage of fastballs he saw last year ticked up by a little less than 1% compared to 2019—probably not enough to think twice about. His O-Swing% went down while is Z-Swing% went up. His contact % both outside and inside the zone went down (Z-Contact% went from from 88% in 2019 to 76.5% in 2020). He also saw a higher overall percentage of pitches in the strike zone last year than in 2019, and his swinging strike % ballooned from 8% to 13%. This all suggests he was swinging and missing at more pitches he should have hit, many of which were fastballs.

Dodecahedron · February 19, 2021

Yes, I saw that, but those are weighted runs and not hits. I'm also unsure of those are actual runs or a "runs generated" type of uberstat.

Is there something quantitative that shows that he can't hit fastballs anymore?

Dodecahedron · February 19, 2021

Ah, I answered my own question. Those metrics tie at-bat events to this table:

http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html

Thus, it's not measuring actual runs or actual events that happen in at-bats.

Personally, I don't find these approaches reliable predictors, but they are fine for looking backward.

What we really need is:

- How many hits did Garver have off of fastballs

- How many hits did Garver have off of other pitches

v. previous year(s)

And

- How many strikes did Garver have off of fastballs

- How many strikes did Garver have off of other pitch types

v. previous years(s)

Then we can verify your statement. Does anyone have this?

prouster · February 19, 2021

Ah, I answered my own question. Those metrics tie at-bat events to this table:

http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html

Thus, it's not measuring actual runs or actual events that happen in at-bats.

Personally, I don't find these approaches reliable predictors, but they are fine for looking backward.

What we really need is:

- How many hits did Garver have off of fastballs
- How many hits did Garver have off of other pitches
v. previous year(s)

And

- How many strikes did Garver have off of fastballs
- How many strikes did Garver have off of other pitch types
v. previous years(s)

Then we can verify your statement. Does anyone have this?

I can't find any data that granulated. Agree that FG's pitch values aren't predictive. They basically show how much WPA a player contributed by pitch type compared to their peers. My basic concern is that Garver had more pitches to hit and made contact with fewer of them, while the percentage of fastballs remained pretty much the same as in 2019. To me, this suggests that he was missing pitches he should have been hitting. I think that's quite alarming, because hitting fastballs is the absolute least a MLB hitter needs to be able to do. However, I believe this is a red flag and not a kiss of death.

Hopefully it was just a slump or an injury. He's 30 and plays a tough position, though, so my fear is that he's already lost some bat speed.

Dodecahedron · February 19, 2021

I agree that Garver had a very poor 2020 and an unsustainable 2019.

I feel like he will still do some good things, but time will tell.

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