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  • AL Central Preview: Twins Rising, Indians Still Kings

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Cleveland has been at the top of the AL Central for two consecutive seasons and things seem to be trending that way again in 2018. By season's end, the AL Central might end up being the easiest division in baseball. Besides Minnesota and Cleveland, there are a lot of young, rebuilding clubs. This could help both the Indians and the Twins to separate themselves from the pack in the American League.

    Will Minnesota be able to catch Cleveland, the Kings of the AL Central?

    Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    I was on 670 The Score out of Chicago last week to help them preview the AL Central. TAKE A LISTEN HERE.

    Cleveland Indians

    2017: 102-60, first place, lost to New York in ALDS

    Manager: Terry Fancona (sixth season)

    New Faces: 1B-DH Yonder Alonso, LF Rajai David, RHP Alexi Ogando

    Key Losses: 1B Carlos Santana, OF Jay Bruce, RHP Bryan Shaw

    Outlook: Cleveland hasn’t won the World Series since 1948 and they’ve suffered through some postseason heartaches over the last two years. In the 2016 World Series, they blew a 3-1 to the Cubs. Last year, they were up 2-0 on the Yankees before losing in the divisional round. Cleveland might have the best pitching staff in all of baseball, including the reigning AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Offensively, Jose Ramirez led the AL in doubles and Francisco Lindor smashed 33 home runs. Veteran players Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley need to stay healthy. It might be World Series or bust for Cleveland this year.

    Minnesota Twins

    2017: 85-77, second place, lost to New York in Wild Card game.

    Manager: Paul Molitor (fourth season).

    New Faces: RHP Lance Lynn, RHP Jake Odorizzi, DH-1B Logan Morrison, RHP Fernando Rodney, RHP Addison Reed, LHP Zach Duke, RHP Michael Pineda.

    Key Losses: C Chris Gimenez, LHP Hector Santiago, LHP Glen Perkins

    Outlook: Minnesota surprised the baseball world by becoming the first team to finish in the playoffs one year after losing 100 or more games. Now the Twins will need to try to surprise again as they attempt to hunt down the Indians. With a core of players under the age of 25, the Twins seem to rising at the right time. Adding Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn to the rotation helps to address a weakness and there are plenty of other arms populating the Rochester staff. While the American League looks a little top heavy, the Twins should have enough to fight for a Wild Card spot. Thankfully, the Twins are scheduled to play each of the teams listed below 19 times in 2018.

    Kansas City Royals

    2017: 80-82, third place.

    Manager: Ned Yost (ninth season).

    New Faces: RHP Jesse Hahn, CF Jon Jay, 1B Lucas Duda, RHP Wily Peralta, RHP Justin Grimm.

    Key Losses: 1B Eric Hosmer, CF Lorenzo Cain, RHP Joakim Soria, LHP Mike Minor, OF Melky Cabrera, DH Brandon Moss.

    Outlook: Out with the old and in with the new. Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain are off to greener pastures, which is going to put more pressure on new additions Jon Jay and Lucas Duda. Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar didn’t get great offers on the free agent market so they returned to Kansas City. Even with them back in Royals blue, it could be tough for this club to be around the .500 mark. There are holes in nearly every part of their roster. Look for them to be busy at the trade deadline as they might be forced to go into full rebuilding mode.

    Chicago White Sox

    2017: 67-95, fourth place.

    Manager: Rick Renteria (second season).

    New Faces: RHP Miguel Gonzalez, C Welington Castillo.

    Key Losses: LHP Derek Holland, RHP Mike Pelfrey, RHP Al Alburquerque, C Geovany Soto.

    Outlook: While the Royals haven’t hit full rebuild mode yet, Chicago traded away plenty of pieces last season. This means the White Sox have a nice young core with players like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito and Miguel Gonzalez. There are other top prospects on the way but that could mean Chicago is still a year or two away from making a playoff push in the AL. A completely rebuilt bullpen makes it hard to know what to expect in late game situations. Chicago will likely continue to take its bruises this year while the young guns try to figure it all out at the big league level.

    Detroit Tigers

    2017: 64-98, fifth place.

    Manager: Ron Gardenhire (first season).

    New Faces: OF Leonys Martin, RHP Mike Fiers, LHP Francisco Liriano, OF Victor Reyes.

    Key Losses: 2B Ian Kinsler, RHP Anibal Sanchez, INF Andrew Romine, RHP Bruce Rondon.

    Outlook: Ron Gardenhire’s return to managing doesn’t seem exactly like a dream job. He will have to piece together a roster that traded away Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler over the last calendar year. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are still part of this roster but no one is sure how much they have left in the tank. Gardy is very familiar with the AL Central but he is going to have his hands full in a division that looks top heavy entering 2018.

    What are your predictions for the AL Central? What will it take to catch the Indians? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    The Indians underacheived more than half the year. They showed how important pitching depth is. Still, their line up isn't better than ours. Interesting battle of top end arms vs depth and balance.

     

    Cleveland both underachieved in the first half and overachieved down the stretch. They played a lot of crappy teams en route to a 22-game winning streak. Take that away and they're a 90-92 win team -- still a playoff team but not a true top seed (as evidenced by them being bounced out by the wild card team).

    Edited by Doomtints
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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Too many want to discount the Indians 22 game streak, saying they aren't as good as they are because that won't happen again, but then won't take into account how they under-performed early in the year.  It's like the people who discount Rockies hitters for inflated numbers (cause of the park they play in) and still slam Rockies pitchers for their number (not taking into account the park they pitch in)

     

    In the AL the Indians were easily 1st in pitching, 3rd in offense and 4th in defense.  That kind of balance makes a team great.  They were the only team in the AL in the top 4 in all three categories.

     

    Losing to a 91 win the Yankees in game five in a best of five series isn't proof that they aren't as good as their record says. It might be proof that things happen in short series and that playoffs don't really prove who the best team is.

    Edited by jimmer
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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    This season sort of has a 2002-2004 feel. Every year we read about how the Twins weren't as good as either Cleveland or Chicago (and sometimes both). The Twins are young but they have some solid vets and no major weakness (save maybe manager). I think the Twins have a very real argument for the best player in the division if Buxton plays like I expect him to and I think their offense will be top 3 overall.

     

    Cleveland has been great two years in a row but I really do think they'll have a bad year. They've played an awfully lot of games the last two years and finished with absolute Viking-level gut punches in both post-seasons. I just think that puts a toll on a team. If Buxton and Kepler and Berrios make the strides that we expect them to, we're pretty good.

     

    (Of course, the Twins do have a chance of another 2016 disaster season. You can easily see a scenario where Buxton presses in April/May, Kepler doesn't improve, Sano/Rosario go to the DL, the fip of Ordozzi/Lynn/Santana catches up to them, Mauer falls off the cliff, Molitor does Molitor things, the FO folds early and trades away Dozier, Lynn, Morrison etc. But **** that. It's nearly opening day so be hopeful).

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    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Too many want to discount the Indians 22 game streak, saying they aren't as good as they are because that won't happen again, but then won't take into account how they under-performed early in the year. It's like the people who discount Rockies hitters for inflated numbers (cause of the park they play in) and still slam Rockies pitchers for their number (not taking into account the park they pitch in)

     

    In the AL the Indians were easily 1st in pitching, 3rd in offense and 4th in defense. That kind of balance makes a team great. They were the only team in the AL in the top 4 in all three categories.

     

    Losing to a 91 win the Yankees in game five in a best of five series isn't proof that they aren't as good as their record says. It might be proof that things happen in short series and that playoffs don't really prove who the best team is.

    Especially since the Yankees are a really good team too.

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Especially since the Yankees are a really good team too.

    Exactly.  And they came on strong the 2nd half. Putting the wild card label on them to diminish that reality doesn't really work.

    Edited by jimmer
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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

    This season sort of has a 2002-2004 feel. Every year we read about how the Twins weren't as good as either Cleveland or Chicago (and sometimes both). The Twins are young but they have some solid vets and no major weakness (save maybe manager). I think the Twins have a very real argument for the best player in the division if Buxton plays like I expect him to and I think their offense will be top 3 overall.

     

    Cleveland has been great two years in a row but I really do think they'll have a bad year. They've played an awfully lot of games the last two years and finished with absolute Viking-level gut punches in both post-seasons. I just think that puts a toll on a team. If Buxton and Kepler and Berrios make the strides that we expect them to, we're pretty good.

     

    (Of course, the Twins do have a chance of another 2016 disaster season. You can easily see a scenario where Buxton presses in April/May, Kepler doesn't improve, Sano/Rosario go to the DL, the fip of Ordozzi/Lynn/Santana catches up to them, Mauer falls off the cliff, Molitor does Molitor things, the FO folds early and trades away Dozier, Lynn, Morrison etc. But **** that. It's nearly opening day so be hopeful).

    Lindor says hello. His worst year is 4.4 WAR... His rookie year.

     

    Ramirez put up an insane 6.6 last year.

     

    Two White Sox put up over 4 last year.

     

    Sure, Buxton could be better than all of them, but my money is on lindor. And Dozier.

    Edited by Mike Sixel
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    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 17,473

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Interesting. See, I have the Twins at 88 wins (and felt a little dicey on that prediction after the Polanco suspension). I have the Indians around 95 games.

     

    I can see how people would land differently, though. Before the Polanco suspension, I would have put the Twins at 89 games and would have considered putting them at 90 if I was feeling optimistic. From there, it's not much of a jump to see them line up against Cleveland if, say, Kluber goes down.

     

    Losing Polanco does hurt, but I don't think the Indians come anywhere close to 3rd in the AL in offense next year.  I also imagine their pitching (while still clearly the best in the AL) won't be quite so dominant.  They had the best ERA+ in the last century.  Odds are not good for repeating that.

     

    I think the depth the Twins have in their lineup and their pitching staff makes up a lot of ground on the high-end pitching of the Indians.  But the Twins are a far shakier bet because there are still so many players we're unsure about.  

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Lindor says hello. His worst year is 4.4 WAR... His rookie year.

     

    Ramirez put up an insane 6.6 last year.

     

    Two White Sox put up over 4 last year.

     

    Sure, Buxton could be better than all of them, but my money is on lindor. And Dozier.

    yeah, at least for this season, Lindor for sure.
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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    Too many want to discount the Indians 22 game streak, saying they aren't as good as they are because that won't happen again, but then won't take into account how they under-performed early in the year.  It's like the people who discount Rockies hitters for inflated numbers (cause of the park they play in) and still slam Rockies pitchers for their number (not taking into account the park they pitch in)

     

    In the AL the Indians were easily 1st in pitching, 3rd in offense and 4th in defense.  That kind of balance makes a team great.  They were the only team in the AL in the top 4 in all three categories.

     

    Losing to a 91 win the Yankees in game five in a best of five series isn't proof that they aren't as good as their record says. It might be proof that things happen in short series and that playoffs don't really prove who the best team is.

     

    This is a reasonable take, but they've lost some players here (and to be fair, we really haven't), and I think there's more "primed for regression" candidates than what we have. Lots of guys had career years. Perhaps that continues for them, but it's also possible guys take steps back. I do tend to agree that Cleveland is (and should be) the favorite... as much as I hate that, but I tend to agree with Levi in that I don't think the gap is that large. I doubt they win 102, especially with a much stronger team here, not to mention a Chicago team that is talented enough to likely not be pushovers. I think Cleveland is a 95ish win team. I've said I think the Twins can win 95... Truthfully, that's my top end projection (probably more 92-95 and pre-Polanco) baring injuries of course.

     

    Baring something catastrophic, it should be a good race. While Cleveland can (and should) be the favorite, this is a team that can surprise them and take them down. 

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Lindor says hello. His worst year is 4.4 WAR... His rookie year.

    Ramirez put up an insane 6.6 last year.

    Two White Sox put up over 4 last year.

    Sure, Buxton could be better than all of them, but my money is on lindor. And Dozier.

    Originally I was going to mention Lindor (easily my favorite non-Twin since Ichiro) but I didn't want to jinx it. He's pretty good.

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Last year Cleveland scored more runs than we did and had a better BA, OBP, SLG% and wRC+. And they have most of their players back.

    Their rotation was and still is way better than ours as is their relief core.

    Their defense was also better.

    Can we win the division? Sure, cause this is sports; however, most of the time, 162 game schedules tell us the story if who the best teams are.

    In fairness, Cleveland was third in runs, we were fourth. They outscored us by 3 runs. They were third in wRC+, we were fourth. They were second in wOBA, we were fourth. It's not exactly the impossible hill to climb to be better than them without much going right, frankly.

     

    (Not sure how park factors play into this but it's probably not much since both teams have been, more or less, constructed for their home parks).

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    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    In fairness, Cleveland was third in runs, we were fourth. They outscored us by 3 runs. They were third in wRC+, we were fourth. They were second in wOBA, we were fourth. It's not exactly the impossible hill to climb to be better than them without much going right, frankly.

     

    (Not sure how park factors play into this but it's probably not much since both teams have been, more or less, constructed for their home parks).

    Offensively, sure.  I don't disagree with that. But we aren't close to them in pitching and they are also better on D.

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