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My low expectations for the Twins are probably a defense mechanism, preventing me from being disappointed in a bad year, and heightening my enjoyment of a surprise run. But it’s not fun to be doom and gloom all the time. There are reasons for hope in these projections. Let’s look at them in some detail:
The trade for John Ryan Murphy works out.
Baseball Prospectus sees Murphy as being worth a win in 2016 while playing 60 percent of the time behind the plate. That’s not great, of course. That said, it’s light years better than Kurt Suzuki’s projection and also better than PECOTA thinks Aaron Hicks will do for the Yankees.
Eddie Rosario’s playing time
This is counter-intuitive, given that PECOTA thinks Rosario will hit just .250/.280/.401 and will be more than a win below replacement while playing 85 percent of the time. First, it’s important to note that this projection is entirely reasonable for a guy who struggled in the minors and who had a .289 OBP last year with a 15/118 BB/K ratio and whose slugging was inflated by 15 triples (which will be difficult to repeat). Now, Rosario could certainly outperform that quite easily with even a slight improvement in his strike zone judgment, but I don’t doubt the numbers BP came up with. However, if Rosario is only hitting .250 with a .280 OBP, there simply is no way that he keeps his job. The only reason he played as much as he did in 2015 is that he was hitting .290 at the end of July. If he doesn’t start off hot, he’ll get shuffled to Rochester like Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas did, in favor of Max Kepler. No matter what happens, Rosario’s position won’t be as bad as BP thinks it will.
They're sleeping on Eduardo Escobar
To put it simply, Baseball Prospectus hasn’t caught up to Escobar: He has provided league average offense and good defense at a premium position when he’s been allowed to play there over the last two years. Instead, PECOTA pegs him as a replacement level shortstop. Now, Escobar’s on-base percentage is never going to be good, but it can be just OK enough that, when paired with his defense and his mid-range pop, he is a two- or three-win player.
Trevor Plouffe is not a replacement-level third baseman
I have no idea what PECOTA is doing here, pegging Plouffe to be worth less than a win. By their own metrics, he’s been worth in excess of two wins in each of the last two years. Assuming he’s going to more than halve his production just when he turns 30 makes no sense to me.
Where the hell is Jose Berrios?
For some reason, Baseball Prospectus has projected that Ricky Nolasco is going to be part of the starting rotation and doesn’t think that Jose Berrios is going to throw any innings for the Twins in 2016. Barring injury, there’s simply no chance of that happening. Berrios will be up in June at the latest and will get in at least 100 innings for a club desperate for some upside on the mound. Depending on how he adjusts, Berrios could be worth between one and two wins for the club after he debuts, especially as he pushes a less deserving arm to the bullpen or back to Rochester.
Now, it’s not all good news. PECOTA, for instance, projects Byron Buxton to be worth four and a half wins and to play 85 percent of the time in center field. I’m finding it increasingly hard to believe that the Twins will commit to Buxton out of spring training, and there’s a good chance that any kind of a slow start will exile him to Rochester until late June. If that happens, the Twins will lose a ton of value on defense, and probably on offense as well, especially if they try to make do with Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, and/or Carlos Quentin in his place. Enough, probably, to give back almost everything they're going to gain from the rays of hope I outlined above.
Sorry to end on such a bummer. But I did warn you; it's my nature.
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