4 Stories To Watch At The Winter Meetings

I hope they push as hard as they can to sign Darvish and trade for one of the others. My preference would be Archer or Cole. With the way the rest of the American League is shaping up the Twins are going to have to be aggressive. I think it’s time for them to go all in. The window is opening and they have room to take on payroll. Would Gonsalves, Gordon, Jorge, and a low level prospect be enough to land either Archer or Cole?

Cole probably yes, Archer, no way in hell. Archer is the better pitcher and also has 4 years of control, versus Cole's 2 years of control. Archer probably has about 5/2 the value of Cole. I can't imagine a scenario where the Twins get Archer unless they trade at least Royce Lewis, one of Gonsalves or Romero, plus probably another decent 5-9 range prospect. 

I'm interested what it would take to get Cole. I've heard the Pirates likely have no interest in middle infielders, so even though Gordon would probably be who we'd want to give up, I'm not sure the Pirates would be that interested. 

I'm hesitant to do any trade this offseason that requires giving up more than 1 of Lewis, Gordon, Gonsalves, and Romero. I don't think the Twins are in the stage of their window yet where it makes sense to gut the top echelon of prospects that they have for 2 years of a starter who will leave for $100 + million anyways. Not saying Gerritt Gole isn't worth Gordon + Gonsalves and then a lower level guy because he probably is. I just don't think it makes sense for the Twins right now to do that. Why not just sign Cole in 2 years or trade for an Archer type pitcher then. The Twins have the potential to be really special come 2019 or 2020 once guys like Romero, Gonsalves, Jay, Gordon hit. Around then is when you can start mortgaging the future to go for it. 

The Twins farm system is probably borderline top 10, but the strength of the system is the depth. The Twins would be smart to utilize that depth in maybe trading for a reliever with a year or two left of control or a starter that may only require Gordon plus Littell or Jorge. Don't want to mistime the window and deal prospects too early.

In advance of the Rule-5 draft, we have 14 position players on the 40-man roster. Fourteen! A team can't realistically go into a season with that number, can they? Something has got to be in the works to add to that quantity.

 

Even with the number of pitchers exposed to possible drafting, we have 22 hurlers on the 40-man. That becomes a seemingly unsustainable 23 if a pitcher is added via free-agency.

 

For comparison, a team like the Astros currently are at 18/20. Dodgers, 18/22. A ratio like 20/20 or 19/21 seems like the norm when the dust settles and the season starts.

 

14/22?!? I have to believe big changes are coming to pull these numbers for the Twins closer in balance, in a way not currently being discussed whatsoever.

I think they'll add a RH DH or 3b, but that's it. The catching depth is through minor league deals and they have Gordon and Wade as depth pieces not yet on the 40 man.

They'll probably even drop Vargas. I'd expect a few more minor league signings, but it will be lopsided this year, kind of a fluke of prospect timing.

 

I have zero interest in another Rule 5 pick-up. They have enough young guys of their own that could be treated as an in-house Rule 5 guy. Sign a veteran or two and let the young guys battle it out. Maybe look at a guy or two that's available and if they're not selected, trade for them. 

It was pretty underwhelming what they did last year when they had the number one Rule 5 pick, I don't expect much this year as far as gains for the Twins.

If they lose Burdi, I think that will hurt them in the long run, he has too much potential.

If McCutchen is on the trade block, per Olney, that probably means Cole really is too.

ALSO, we can't let this happen:

Our history shows that a Twins playoff team comes along for about 3 years then goes into hibernation for several years before returning. Thus we should make hay while the sun shines and trade for Cole or Archer and sign a good free agent. I don't think we will win Darvish nor do I think we should trade the entire farm but prospects do not always pan out. Proven commodities are best. And I still believe we need a top closer. After all, do you trust who we have at this point?

I'm for going after Cole if he can be got without include Royce Lewis. Archer, whose value is more than twice that of Cole (bc of years of control, quality of pitcher, and contract), would almost certainly require Lewis, Gonsalves or Romero, and probably more. That's not worth it.  I'd target Cole with a package that does not include Lewis.

I'd include Gonsalves in a package for any good arm, it wouldn't take much to convince me to move Romero and/or Gordon as well. I'd be actively shopping Kepler and I would be willing to move Polanco from the MLB roster without too much hesitation. I like Garver but have a hard time seeing the club letting him usurp Castro any time in the next two years so I'd be willing to include him in a package as well. I'd also be willing to move Mejia, but since he's the only MLB ready lefty starter there probably would need to be a replacement for him in the cards.

 

Lewis, Buxton, Sano, Berrios (and obviously Brent Rooker) are probably my only untouchables when it comes to getting front line starters. And I might cave on Lewis if it's for someone truly exceptional.

A rebuilding team probably wouldn't want Kepler or probably Polanco either, I'm guessing.

I just can't see why the heck you would trade Gonsalves or Romero for another pitcher. Seems dumb to trade one of your 2 best pitchers in the Organization for someone that's had more success in MLB, but is older. And that's not counting any other players it'd take to aquire said player.

I just can't see why the heck you would trade Gonsalves or Romero for another pitcher. Seems dumb to trade one of your 2 best pitchers in the Organization for someone that's had more success in MLB, but is older. And that's not counting any other players it'd take to aquire said player.

I mean, if you think there is a decent chance Gonsalves or Romero is going to be an Archer (or even Cole) level pitcher, then yeah, I agree.  But Gonsalves looks like a 4-5 type and while Romero has the upside of a front-line starter, the actual odds of that happening are probably less than 20%, plus he may not even be suited for a starting role. He's never pitched more than 125 innings, and the one time he pitched that many innings, he got hurt/warn down at the end of the year.  Archer gives you an ace for 4 years, and Cole a #2 for two years. With injury risk there is no sure thing, but those are much more of a guarantee of a #1-#2 pitcher than Gonsalves/Romero. That's why you might trade Romero or Gonsalves, plus something more (and for Archer, probably a lot more).  Also, let's say you trade one of Romero or Gonsalves for 2 years of Cole.  By 2020, when Cole is a FA, both the other of Gonsalves/Romero and Lewis Thorpe may be ready to join your rotation. And tons of money is opening up from the Santana, Mauer and Dozier contracts expiring next year, so you may also have enough to get another FA pitcher next year or in 2020, if you don't this year. Meanwhile, having Cole means you have a good starting pitching rotation the next two years, rather than a mediocre one. We don't want to wait until 2020 to be a contender, but without beefing up our rotation for 2018-19, we aren't realistically contenders. And I don't think you can count on Gonsalves or Romero to add what the rotation needs to  this year, and likely not even next year. Obviously it all depends on the total amount the Pirates (or the Rays) ask for, but I would not make trading Romero or Gonsalves off limits. I might even trade Lewis for Archer, if the deal was good enough (say, Archer for Lewis plus a 6-10 level prospect - which the Rays likely wouldn't do anyway).

Archer or Cole--absolutely.  We have to be realistic about what kind of pitchers Gonsalves and Romero are. Both Archer and Cole have already reached a higher level than Gonsalves has a ceiling.  He has #3 starter stuff, and I'd believe he has the makeup and intelligence to possibly pitch at a #2 level at times, but but Archer is a fringe #1 guy and Cole is a solid #2 with potential to pitch at a #1 level when he's on.  As for Romero, he's got #2 stuff with a lot of risk.  There's still a good chance he ends up a bullpen arm.  I think it's a no brainer if the rest of the asking price isn't too high.

 

I would probably keep Lewis off limits, but anyone else is shippable at the right price.  There's just little probability that any of them will have the kind of impact that a front-line starter would.

 

My preference for the starting pitchers that have been talked about would be:

Archer, Cole, Odorizzi, Darvish, Cobb, Arrieta, Lynn.  

 

Obviously the first three are contingent on what they have to give up to get them, but if they are building for sustained success having a younger cheaper guy is better than signing a big contract for an older free agent.  Arrieta and Lynn feel like free agent traps waiting too happen, so I'm not sure I'd really want them at all unless the deals are very team friendly.

Agreed with everything, except you'd rather have Odorizzi and Cole than Darvish? Are you taking into account what you'd have to give up in money and prospects, because Darvish is clearly a much better pitcher than Odorizzi and although its less clear cut, than Cole.