2023 Breakout Candidates

Even if Carlos Correa returns, the Twins roster will not be a geared up contender for the AL Central. Hopefully multiple acquisitions are made, but the Twins will also be relying on several players to break out. Luckily in the case of the Twins, there are plenty of candidates.

Trevor Larnach
Larnach now has two seasons of flashing white hot stretches at the plate followed up by extreme lows. His most recent run in 2022 began with a slash line of .299/.375/.515 through the end of May, only to finish with a .429 OPS in June. Larnach suffered a core muscle injury that eventually resulted in his season ending. Did said injury knock him off of his peak, or did pitchers adjust to his approach as they did in 2021?

Larnach became a certified asset in the corner outfield because of his arm and should provide a safe floor in terms of value due to that defensive ability. The question is whether he can consistently contribute at the plate. While expecting him to be 50% above league average offensively as he was for a stretch in 2022 is too much, those two months show the talent he has hidden away somewhere. His knowledge of the strike zone and ability to punish mistakes could lead to his emergence as a legitimate middle of the order bat. Even that outcome would give the Twins lineup an entirely different look.

Griffin Jax
Perhaps the crown jewels of the Twins pitching pipeline at this time are of course Jhoan Duran and the underrated Griffin Jax. In the latter’s case, it is a story of great success. After failing to hold up as a started, Jax switched to the bullpen and quietly posted a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 IP in 2022. Striking out around 27% of hitters, Jax was a great setup man in a pinch. For a portion of the season he was likely the Twins second best reliever. So how could he break out and become even better?

It appears for starters that Jax is working on adding velocity, never a bad idea! His wipeout slider wasn’t enough to keep hitters off his fastball which allowed a .530 SLG in 2022 so perhaps some added velocity could help. Jax also sneakily had a very effective changeup which he used around 14% of the time. Perhaps in just his second season as a reliever he can add some velocity and use his changeup as an equalizer for lefties a bit more. Given the baseline he showed in 2022, doing so could make him a devastating weapon at the back end of games.

Alex Kirilloff
Unfortunately at this point Kirilloff’s breakout feels like a pipedream due to his inability to remain on the field. The talented former #15 overall pick has been dealing with wrist issues for years. Following multiple surgeries, the most recent of which can be considered experimental, it’s hard to rely on Kirilloff for any kind of value moving forward. That being said, he displayed his pure hitting skills throughout the minors and flashed them in the MLB during the short stints he’s been healthy. While it’s hard to find sustained success in his brief career, it’s easy to forget that he was considered the best pure hitter in the Twins system not that long ago, regularly dominating the minor leagues.

Fans may be tired of waiting, but the Twins drafted Kirilloff out of high school six years ago. If he can take the field in the spring, the Twins will give him every opportunity to succeed, as they should. We’ve rarely seen Kirilloff take the field while healthy, but at just 25 years old it’s not time to give up on him just yet. Long projected to be a cornerstone of the lineup, health is the main question that Kirilloff looks to answer in 2023. If that wrist allows him to swing the bat, don’t  be surprised to see the former first rounder as one of the Twins most consistent hitters.

Does anyone on this list stand out above the others? Is there a major breakout candidate not listed here? Let us know below!