2020 Is The Year for Jose Berríos

The Competition

The 2020 field for the Cy Young could be a bit softer than it was in 2019, and may provide a slightly better opportunity for Berríos to take home some hardware. Gerrit Cole Leaves the AL West for the AL East. He faces a huge change in ballpark and is set to face the big stage of New York for the first time, a transition that’s been difficult for superstars throughout baseball history. Justin Verlander has already had groin surgery this spring. Could this be the year that Verlander’s age catches up and he downgrades from a super ace?

Chris Sale’s 2020 is already over before it’s begun, as he’s opted to undergo Tommy John surgery. Mike Clevinger has unbelievable skill, but his health has become a consistent issue in recent years.

There are plenty of realistic candidates for the award in the AL, but if the top tier of pitching falters even just a bit in a potentially shortened season, the odds for Jose Berríos can make a huge jump.

The Skills

Berríos has been making adjustments for a few years now with his pitch mix. From 2018-2019, he nearly doubled his changeup usage while still maintaining his near 30% whiff rate. He’s clearly becoming more confident with the pitch, and I’d expect to see it even more when baseball resumes. Throwing more changeups helps neutralize opposite handed hitters, and Berríos has performed much better against them the last two years as he’s gotten more of a feel for it.

https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1248606568108699648

We’ve also heard about and seen in limited fashion this spring how Berríos overhauled his breaking ball this offseason. The ALDS was a bit of a wakeup call that fueled this change, as the elite Yankee hitters chased him early by refusing to swing at the pitch out of the zone. It may be a necessary change, as the whiff rate on his GIF worthy breaking ball dropped by about 10% in 2019. It will essentially be a pitch that no opposing hitters have seen before. If it makes him more effective against the league’s top hitters, Berrios could make a big leap forward on that pitch alone.

https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1248605438083575809

The Shortened Season?

The 2020 season may inadvertently patch up the biggest weakness Berríos has. It was reported that he changed his workout routine this offseason to try to avoid the burnout he’s historically seen toward the end of the year. His ERA in the second half of the season throughout his career is more than a run higher than the first half number. August and September are by far the worst performing months of his career.

We have no idea what the regular season schedule will look like in 2020 if MLB gets around to one at all. That being said, every week that baseball isn’t played, it becomes less likely that a full 162 games will be played. This could reduce the physical tax that likely led to an ERA over 7 from Berríos in August last season. He’s struggled with the marathon season in his career, might he fare better with a sprint?

Berríos was already a Cy Young sleeper for some going into 2020. His ongoing adjustments to his craft were enough for Twins fans to dream on all offseason. The field for AL Cy Young may be softer, even just slightly, which isn’t insignificant. More importantly, a shortened season could eliminate the physical breakdown we’ve seen in the past, which has been the Achilles’ Heel for the Twins ace the last few years. 2020 will be a season unlike any we’ve ever seen before. While there may be a bit of chaos as strategies and expectations are adjusted, Jose Berríos may be in a fantastic position to take home his first Cy Young award.

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

— Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here