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  • 2015 Projections and Rankings: Oswaldo Arcia

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    In the last few days, we reviewed and made predictions about the 2015 seasons of the Twins infielders. Today, we will be posting our projections and rankings of the Twins outfielders.

    Oswaldo Arcia is moving over to left field and his ability to take a step forward in his career is one of the keys to the Twins 2015 season.

    Image courtesy of Tommy GIlligan, USA Today

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    MINNESOTA TWINS – OSWALDO ARCIA

    Oswaldo Arcia sped through the Twins minor league system and made his major league debut at age 21 in early 2013. He hit 17 doubles and 14 home runs in that rookie season in just 97 games. In 2014, he played in just 103 games. He hit .231/.300/.452 (.752) with 16 doubles, 20 home runs and 57 RBI.

    So, what are those things that will determine whether or not Oswaldo Arcia can take a step forward in his career in 2015? He will need to make more contact. He struck out 127 times in 410 plate appearances. He’ll need to be able to control the strike zone better as he walked just 31 times. He hit right-handed pitching to the tune of an .848 OPS. However, against southpaws, he hit just .198/.261/.313 (.574). Of course, defense will also be a struggle for Arcia. He won’t have a ton of range, but more important, will he be able to take better routes than he did in right field last year?

    If he can show better plate discipline and make more contact, Arcia has all the potential in the world. He has 30-homer potential and will be able to drive in a lot of runs. If he doesn’t make a couple of adjustments, we could see Eddie Rosario getting his first opportunity with the Twins.

    Our Twins Daily writers made their predictions:

    Seth – .255/.312/.485 (.797) with 23 doubles and 27 HR.

    Nick – .265/.325/.515 (.840) with 25 doubles and 35 HR

    Parker – .250/.310/.470 (.780) with 20 doubles and 25 HR

    John – ..220/.290/.400 (.690) with 15 doubles and 12 HR

    AL CENTRAL LEFT FIELDERS

    Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics

    Chicago – Melky Cabrera – 30 - .301/.351/.458 (.808) with 35 doubles, 16-HR

    Cleveland – Michael Brantley – 28 - .327/.385/.506 (.890) with 45 doubles, 20-HR

    Detroit – Yoenis Cespedes – 29 - .260/.301/.450 (.751) with 36 doubles, 22-HR

    Kansas City – Alex Gordon – 31 - .266/.351/.432 (.783) with 34 doubles, 19-HR

    AL CENTRAL LEFT FIELD RANKINGS

    #1 – Alex Gordon – Kansas City

    #2 – Michael Brantley – Cleveland

    #3 – Melky Cabrera – Chicago

    #4 – Yoenis Cespedes – Detroit

    #5 – Oswaldo Arcia – Minnesota

    NOW IT’S YOUR TURN

    Give it a little thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Oswaldo Arcia in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central left fielders? Then discuss your thoughts with the rest of the Twins Daily community. Check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions.

    PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS, PROJECTIONS AND RANKINGS

    Kurt Suzuki

    Joe Mauer

    Brian Dozier

    Trevor Plouffe

    Danny Santana

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily, Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects.
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    Kavan

    Kavan 25

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    The average ISO for these projections is .233.  That would put Arcia in a category with Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, and Ryan Braun in terms of power over the past few years. That seems a little optimistic to me. Maybe Arcia will be putting up those numbers at the peak of his career, but I don't see him doing that at age 23/24.  I think my projection would be something like:

    .245/.310/.455

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    Did you guys factor in defense into the rankings?  After the Santana one I didn't think so, but maybe you did here?

     

    I am guessing Arcia has a better OPS this year than Melky or Cespedes.  Cespedes for sure.  Cespedes has basically been a .250/.300 guy with 22 HR the last two years (after tape existed on him).  .740 OPS.  That is in line with Arcia's age 22 and 23 seasons, where he was literally clueless against lefties and has had contact issues. I would expect a step forward to some extent this year.

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    .275/.340/.500 (.840) with 30 doubles and 32 homers.

     

    That seems really rosy to me.  I don't doubt that Arcia could eventually put up these type of numbers. But I don't see it this year.

     

    His career OPS splits are .809/.613.  So you are expecting his average to rise more than his career OPS against righties with about a 30 basis point improvement in his BA.

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    mikelink45

    mikelink45 10,958

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    240 (let's not get too optimistic - he would be very improved to get to this level)  30 home run if they do not get too upset with his strikeouts and fielding.  I am a little worried that he is looking a little pudgy in his photo with this article and based on what I have read I wonder if he can maintain plate discipline over the whole year.  I really want him to succeed!

     

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    Shane Wahl

    Shane Wahl 1,848

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    That seems really rosy to me.  I don't doubt that Arcia could eventually put up these type of numbers. But I don't see it this year.

     

    His career OPS splits are .809/.613.  So you are expecting his average to rise more than his career OPS against righties with about a 30 basis point improvement in his BA.

     

    Yep!

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    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,529

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I am hoping that the light bulb goes on that what he was doing in the minors worked better than what he has done in the majors and that he falls out of love with the tape measure shots and settles for 10 feet over the fence.   .280 with OPS of .860.   This is the guy I expect to have the greatest improvement over last year with possible exception of Mauer.   If he can just tone down the swing a little bit I think he is a difference maker.

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    troyhobbs

    troyhobbs 288

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    He's got some holes in his swing (most of them outside of the strike zone) that MLB pitching has exploited but soon enough he will be punishing them for their mistakes. 250/310/490 around 30 bombs give or take says the optimist in me.

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    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    His August and September last year mark a change. And he will grow from that. Look at those minors numbers again.

     

    His OPS was .825 and .842 in August and September. 15 of his 20 HR cleared the wall in the second half.  But his K rate was over 30% those last two months.  I can't see the righty lefty split by month, but for the year he was at an OPS of .574 against lefties.  He will need a meaningful improvement upon those numbers.

     

    His minor league OPS was .917.  Only 68 HR in 434 games.   Not earth shattering or anything.  Lots of doubles.

    Edited by tobi0040
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    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,529

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    His OPS was .825 and .842 in August and September. 15 of his 20 HR cleared the wall in the second half.  But his K rate was over 30% those last two months.  I can't see the righty lefty split by month, but for the year he was at an OPS of .574 against lefties.  He will need a meaningful improvement upon those numbers.

     

    His minor league OPS was .917.  Only 68 HR in 434 games.   Not earth shattering or anything.

    I think his OPS against lefties is a symptom of his efforts to pull everything and pull it a long way.    The 68 homers is not earth shattering but the .917 OPS kind of is.    I didn't see a lot of him in the early years but the not so distant past I would have thought steroids likely.    I would think if he made the same contact as he did in the minors the homer total would be a lot higher than 68 just because of his build and strength right now.   Step toward the pitcher and go with the pitch.  Does anyone think he can't hit it out of any part of the park with his swing and build?

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    Thegrin

    Thegrin 848

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Arcia is either going to improve, in which case he will be amongst the better LF. or Arcia won't hit enough to cover his defensive weakness, in which case Arcia will find himself playing fewer than 300 AB and we will bring up one or more of our OF prodigy's, or maybe they will bring up Sano and Plouffe will find himself playing LF.

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    yeah John, gotta wonder a bit about your prediction there. He had a lousy spring, but his career to date says he won't be that bad. I think he cracks an .800 OPS personally, and Nick's numbers are probably closer. With a minor league OPS over .900, I really do think he could be a star in a couple years. I think the BA goes up and his plate discipline improves a bit.

     

    .280/.340/.500 25 HR.

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    Hrbowski

    Hrbowski 1,668

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    .320/.388/.539 (.928) with 36 doubles and 17 home runs plus 98 RBI.

     

    There was someone from the Cardinals org. that said if he gave up some of his power he has a good enough swing to be the next Joe Mauer.

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    Loosey

    Loosey 1,788

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

    "John – ..220/.290/.400 (.690) with 15 doubles and 12 HR"

     

    Just curious how Arcia could slug .400 with only 15 doubles and 12 home runs. Are we assuming his season is done by June?

    Must be thinking the plate discipline is really coming around and will walk 125 times.

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