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With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so. The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton. Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%. Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift. While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.

Last week at The Athletic, Dan Hayes wrote a great story about Chris Paddack and why the right-hander was open to a three-year contract extension with the Twins as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. On the surface, the $12.5 million pact seems immensely team-friendly, locking him down at $2.5 million in 2024 -- when he will ostensibly be back to full health -- and buying out his first free agent year for a mere $7.5 million. If Paddack, who recently turned 27, can return to pitching anywhere near the level he was at prior to surgery, he'll be an incredible bargain and an ultra-valuable asset for the rotation in 2024/25. But that can't be safely assumed coming off a second TJ surgery, and he gets it. “I’m always kind of gambling on myself,” he told Hayes. “If this was my first one, maybe we’re talking just a one- or two-year deal with risk and gambling on myself going into my contract year. But this is something I couldn’t pass up, man. It’s a win-win for me." Which brings us to Royce Lewis, who is facing his own version of Paddack's journey, and happens to have the same agent (Scott Boras). Lewis is rehabbing from a second consecutive tear of the same right ACL. His odds of returning to the field as an impact player are probably much higher than Paddack's, given the murky history of double-TJ pitchers, but the risks of going through this ordeal cannot be downplayed, especially for a player whose game is based on springy athleticism. Of course, the Twins' No. 2 prospect is in a very different situation career-wise compared to Paddack. By virtue of MLB's service system, Minnesota controls Lewis' rights for the next six years, including at a league-minimum salary for the next three. Many teams have exercised their leverage in this position to work out long-term contracts with highly touted young players who've barely played in the majors, if at all. (The Rays have become famous for it and the Braves just did it with Michael Harris II.) In the case of Harris, Atlanta locked down the 21-year-old outfielder for eight years and $72 million last August, midway through a Rookie of the Year debut. The contract buys out his first two free agency years with a pair of team options after that. Here's how it shakes out: 2023: $5 million 2024: $5 million 2025: $8 million 2026: $8 million 2027: $9 million 2028: $10 million 2029: $10 million 2030: $12 million 2031: $15 million club option ($5 million buyout) 2032: $20 million club option ($5 million buyout) The big draw for Harris in this arrangement, aside from the ultimate security of guaranteeing himself $72 million, is the elevation of his income in the next few years. Rather than earning the league minimum each year in 2023-25, he'll make $18 million total over those campaigns. Compared to Harris, Lewis obviously has a lot less bargaining power at the moment. He's three years older. He briefly debuted in the majors and looked good, but didn't make nearly so emphatic and convincing a statement as Harris. And of course, there's the knee injuries. Still, Harris contract might provide a helpful framework for thinking about a Lewis extension that makes sense for both sides: increased pre-arb paydays, as part of a total sum of guaranteed money that assures generational wealth, in return for cost-controlled years of arbitration and free agency, plus the flexibility of some team options at the back end. The proposal below amounts to roughly a seven-year, $34 million contract, buying out one year of free agency with an additional two team options on the back end (not entirely dissimilar from the extensions given to Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, albeit further along in their development): 2023: $1M 2024: $3M 2025: $3M 2026: $5M 2027: $5M 2028: $7M 2029: $10M 2030: $12M team option ($1M buyout) 2031: $15M team option ($1M buyout) For the Twins, the incentive here is obvious -- adding a star-caliber talent in Lewis to the entrenched long-term core alongside Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa -- with cost certainty that fits nicely alongside their progressive salary allocations. (Notably, by the time Lewis reaches even a $10 million salary in this framework, Correa would already be into his option years with declining salaries.) The team downside is nominal: if Lewis completely fails to make it back and pan out as an effective MLB player, the Twins would be on the hook for a total sum of money slightly below Correa's 2023 salary. For Lewis, the incentive also should be obvious, but it might not be quite enough. Very possibly, he's inclined to bet on himself and aim for bigger paydays, especially if he's feeling really good at this stage of his recovery. No one would begrudge him. At the same time, should anyone be surprised if he and Boras are open to this kind of extension? Not only has Lewis seen his outlook become shrouded in doubt by two straight freak injuries to the same knee, but at a higher level, he's experienced the way this game can cruelly take things away from you, in ways that are completely out of your control. For what it's worth, he also seems to genuinely enjoy being a part of this organization, which could factor as well. If Lewis is looking for long-term security, the Twins should be welcoming that conversation with open arms. Even if the terms above are not agreeable, there's a lot of room for flexibility to still find a framework that makes a ton of sense for both sides.

Throughout the next five months, we'll be doing all we can to help keep your informed on the player pool for the MLB Draft. The Twins were the biggest movers in the new lottery system and are now bound to select a player that should immediately become a Top 100 prospect in baseball. Last year's draft was especially hitter-heavy at the top as only four pitchers went in the top 19 picks, which included a huge surprise at #3 (Kumar Rocker) and another huge surprise at #7 (Cade Horton). This year's draft has a better mix. And that should be a lot of fun for Twins fans. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee Dollander enters the season as most pundit's top collegiate pitching prospect and a likely Top 5 pick. As we've seen repeatedly in the past, trajectories of college pitchers can change in a hurry. In his debut this past weekend, Dollander threw 81 pitches (only 47 strikes), but recorded seven strikeouts. His numbers weren't great in 4 2/3 innings, as he allowed two runs (including a home run) and walked and hit a batter. His impressive fastball was reportedly in the mid-90s consistently but never hit triple figures like it can. It's only his first start, though, so there is plenty of time left. "Time" has been a huge friend to Dollander. As a 6' 3", 180 pound high-schooler, Dollander went undrafted and pitched his freshman year for Georgia Southern. That time as an Eagle taught Dollander how to eat and lift weights properly, improving his body (adding 20 pounds) and striking out 64 in 49 innings. He did walk 28, but got plenty of interest in the transfer portal, including from the team he shut down in his collegiate debut, Tennessee. Now entering his second season as a Volunteer, Dollander is considered by some to be the college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg and that's high praise. The comp list beyond that is impressive: Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Jack Leiter. Any time you have the ability to add a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, you have to strongly consider it. Paul Skenes, RHP LSU Like Doogie says below, Skenes struck out 12 in six innings in his season debut. Skenes (6'6", 235) also has a big mid-90s fastball which nearly reaches triple-digits. Since arriving at LSU, Skenes has changed his slider by working with noted slider-guy Wes Johnson (sound familiar?) and it's getting rave reviews. Skenes, like current Twin Griffin Jax, attended the Air Force out of high school. While Jax remained at the academy through graduation and his commitment to the military delayed and interrupted his professional career, Skenes will not have any extenuating commitments. Cadets are allowed to leave before beginning classes their junior year without penalty. His professional future is brightest on the mound, but Skenes is also pretty good in the batters box. In those two years at Air Force, Skenes hit .367 while smacking 24 home runs with 81 RBI. You're probably thinking, "oh, so he plays first base too" and you're not completely wrong, because he's only done a little bit of that. Aside from pitching, he's been primarily a catcher(!) who committed to college to do just that. There is no doubt it will be interesting to follow Skenes through this season at LSU. If all goes well, there's no reason he wouldn't be in the conversation for the 5th pick (or the 1st pick for that matter). Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida The final pitcher that will be mentioned today struck out six in five innings over the weekend, while allowing two runs on four hits and two walks. Waldrep transferred to Florida from Southern Miss and has an electric fastball (96-99 mph), a high-80s slider and a mid-80s 12-to-6 curveball. Waldrep helped lead Southern Miss to the Super Regionals before fleeing to the SEC. An All-American, Waldrep struck out 156 in 106 1/3 innings in two seasons (one as a starter) as a Golden Eagle. Slightly smaller than Dollander and much smaller than Skenes, Waldrep still has good size (6' 2, 205) and hails from the noted hot-bed state of Georgia. Pitching for a Top-10 team, there's no reason to think that Waldrep won't get plenty of opportunities to pitch in front of big crowds, lots of scouts and in big games for the Gators this year. We could certainly see his trajectory trend upwards. While these are just three names to follow for the season, there will be many, many more. The SEC, specifically and as seen above, is littered with potential top-10 picks. Dylan Crews, OF, LSU and Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida are largely considered to be the two best draft-eligible college hitting prospects. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss is arguably the top shortstop prospect. Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt is the most exciting prospect in all of college baseball with elite speed and the ability to put bat on ball, but Ben Revere-type power. (Heck, that might not be a terrible floor comp for Bradfield). The whole conference seems abnormally loaded (and not just for the 2023 draft either). Twins Daily will keep pumping out draft content through the spring and into the summer leading up to the mid-July draft.

Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten. 10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV 9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV 8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV 7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV 6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV 5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider. 4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball. 2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below!

The Twins front office started the offseason by dealing Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angeles. Soon after, the traded recent-40-man roster addition Casey Legumina to the Reds for infielder Kyle Farmer. The latter was the likely primary shortstop until the Twins were able to bring back Carlos Correa on a six-year, $200 million deal. That moved Farmer into more of a utility role, able to play all four infield spots, potentially a little outfield, and be the third catcher. Jose Miranda was moving to third base. Jorge Polanco will be at second base. The hope is that Alex Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman. The infield depth was solid, especially considering Royce Lewis could return to the lineup by mid-summer, about the time that prospects such as Austin Martin and Brooks Lee might be deemed ready for the big leagues. In fact, the front office used that depth to acquire starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Marlins, with a couple of prospects, in exchange for Luis Arraez. So, it is certainly intriguing that the Twins would add the 35-year-old Donovan Solano on a big-league deal. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The timing is certainly interesting. It could make a logical, overthinker like myself to wonder if there is an injury. Or, could a trade be coming? Those are logical thoughts. It's also possible that they believe that he can play enough places to make himself a solid contributor in a role. Let's start by looking back at the career of Donovan Solano to this point. While he's played in the big leagues, maybe some don't follow the National League or teams with homes outside of Minneapolis. The St. Louis Cardinals signed him when he was 16 years old in 2004. He remained in their organization through the 2011 season, having spent some time at Triple-A. As a minor-league free agent, he signed with the Florida Marlins. The Marlins called him up in late May and he played in 93 games for them. He topped the 100-games-played plateau in 2013 and 2014 despite playing multiple positions. In 2016, he played in 55 games with the Marlins before being released. He signed with the Yankees for the 2016 season and played in nine games while wearing the pinstripes. In 2017, he spent his whole Age-29 season at Triple-A. The Dodgers signed him in 2018 and he again played in Triple-A. He was kind of at a career crossroads. The Giants signed him in 2019 and sent him to Triple-A, but something happened. He got called up and in 81 games, he hit .33 with 13 doubles and four home runs. In the Covid-shortened 2020 season, he hit .326 with 15 doubles and three home runs in 54 games. He won a Silver Slugger Award. In 2021, he played in 101 games for the Giants and hit .280 with 17 doubles and seven home runs. Last year, he signed with the Reds, and in 80 games, he hit .284 with 16 doubles and four homers. He was a teammate in 2022 with Tyler Mahle and Kyle Farmer. Farmer and Solano both played around the infield for the Reds last year, especially after the team called up Spencer Steer in August. While he has played all four infield positions, he has primarily played second base in the big leagues. 368 of his 463 career starts (79.5%) have come at second base. If you've been listening to the Gleeman and the Geek podcast or John's recent Caretaker audio posts, you know that the Twins have said that Jorge Polanco will be brought along slowly and as his knee is ready. Speculation (fair or not) might be that the Twins just want to make sure they have another option there. While we don't know the dollars of the deal, it won't be real high. Last year, he made $4.5 million with the Reds. This late in spring training, odds are that you can guess the Twins will play him maybe half of that and possibly provide incentives to it. The other side of the transaction is also not yet known. The Twins roster is already at 40 players. To make room for Solano, someone will need to be removed from the 40-man roster. Most likely, the Twins will make room for Solano by placing Royce Lewis (or maybe Chris Paddack) on the 60-Day IL. (This post will be updated as we learn more about the transaction.) Your turn. Share your thoughts on this free-agent signing. Do you think it's a good move? Do you think it indicates something else? Leave your COMMENTS below.

When Austin Martin was drafted fifth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2020 MLB First-Year Player Draft, it was considered one of the steals of the draft. Martin was viewed as the best pure hitter in the draft, and most people thought he would go number two overall behind Spencer Torkelson. Fast forward to July 2021. The Twins were having a disappointing season at 43-61 and decided to sell off some talent at the deadline. They accomplished this task by trading starting pitcher Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays in exchange for Simeon Woods Richardson and Martin, the number 16 overall prospect then, according to MLB.com. When Martin entered the organization following the trade, he immediately became the Twins top prospect, jumping everyone in the farm system including Royce Lewis. Martin was considered by all an elite prospect as recently as last spring, so it’s difficult to give up on him following just one down year. Martin's ups and downs are well documented, and he has tumbled off most top prospect boards, but does he have the ability to re-enter the conversation of future Twins infield studs with Lewis and Brooks Lee? Can he use spring training to prove that he belongs? For the most part, we won't talk much about the past, but Martin did finish 2022 on a high note, attributing an .827 OPS in September. Another encouraging area for Martin happens to be an eerily similar high note experienced by Lewis in 2019 when he was seen as a failing prospect, which was his performance in the Arizona Fall League. The Arizona Fall League takes place after the standards season in the minors wraps up and allows prospects to get extra games before the winter. In 2019, Lewis participated in the AFL and won the league MVP award with a slash line of .353/.411/.565 (.975). His performance was exciting for Twins fans because he struggled at the plate in the minors that season. As he started to slide down top prospect boards, there was worry that the once number-one overall pick might be a bust. In the AFL, Lewis experimented with eliminating his high leg kick, and the results were promising. With the 2020 minor league season canceled and Lewis tearing his ACL in 2021, the AFL was the last action we saw from him leading into the 2022 season. Although Lewis was limited to 46 games due to another tear in the same ACL, he mashed in 2022. Whether in Triple-A or the MLB, Lewis was explosive at the plate, putting to rest the doubt that he could live up to the lofty expectations that come with being drafted number one overall. In 2021, Martin experienced similar success as Lewis once had in the AFL. In 21 games, Martin put together a .374/.454/.482 (.936) slash line and added 10 stolen bases. He adjusted his approach at the plate and hitting mechanics, and although the sample size was small, the results showed immediately. Martin is undoubtedly riding some positive momentum heading into spring training. Still, a quick look at the future outlook of the Twins' defense shows a rather crowded group that may make it difficult for Martin to find a permanent spot. His top two positions are shortstop and center field, but those two spots are held down at the major league level by Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the next six years. Lewis, Lee, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff also have to have assumed roles in the Twins' plans, but there is something that Martin possesses that could make him more valuable to the team and give him a place should he prove he belongs. Martin is a phenomenal athlete with enough versatility to play anywhere on the field. If he can get himself back on track and force the Twins to find a role for him, he would excellently fit the mold of a super-utility man, just as Marwin Gonzalez did for the Twins in 2019 and 2020. Finding a defensive home for Martin may be easy, as he possesses the athleticism and versatility to play almost anywhere on the field. Spring Training 2023 will be a very interesting and important one for Austin Martin. He is a supremely talented baseball player with plenty of tools that could make him an above-average everyday player at the MLB level. Martin has the opportunity over the next two months to prove that his adjustments in the AFL were legitimate and that he possesses defensive versatility. If he can do so, he could force himself back into the Twins' plans and re-enter the conversation of top prospect with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee.