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With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so. The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton. Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%. Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift. While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.

Spring training's start is a time to reflect on the off-season and look ahead to the upcoming campaign. The Twins' off-season plan included a whirlwind of moves, including signing the biggest free-agent contract in team history. Other AL Central teams were less active, so that begs the question: Are the Twins the AL Central's Most Improved Team? Last Friday, The Athletic's Jayson Stark surveyed 29 executives, former executives, coaches, and scouts for their opinions on the upcoming season. The Twins ranked as the sixth most-improved team in the American League. All the remaining AL Central teams ranked in the top five among the least-improved teams in the AL. The Tigers ranked as the overall least-improved team with 19 votes. Let's recap what happened in the AL Central this winter. 5. Tigers Off-Season Recap: Traded Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens for Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands; Signed Michael Lorenzen; Signed Matthew Boyd; Traded Joe Jimenez for Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jake Higginbotham In 2021, the Tigers surprised many on the way to a third-place finish in the AL Central. Last season, there was even more anticipation surrounding the team, with many of their top prospects expected to impact the big-league roster. Their season failed to get off the ground for Detroit as the club struggled to a 66-96 record. The team's offseason moves will minimally impact the roster, and that's why the club projects to lose 90 games. Tigers fans can hope that Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Spencer Torkelson, and Riley Greene improve at the big-league level, but Detroit's season looks bleak. 4. White Sox Off-Season Recap: Lost Jose Abreu and Johnny Cueto to free agency; Signed Mike Clevinger; Signed Andrew Benintendi; Signed Elvis Andrus; Traded Theo Denlinger for Franklin German Many expected the White Sox to run away with the AL Central in 2021, but the club finished with a .500 record. Pedro Grifol, the former Royals bench coach, is stepping into the managerial role. Like the Twins, Chicago was hit hard by the injury bug last season. Jose Abreu has been a team leader on and off the field, so it will be interesting to see how the team adjusts to not having him in the lineup. Mike Clevinger is under investigation for domestic violence, so there is no guarantee of how much he will pitch for the club this season. Andrew Benintendi is a solid addition to the club, but there are other holes on the roster. Elvis Andrus was still on the market and agreed to a deal over the weekend. The White Sox had room to make plenty of other moves but decided to put their faith in a healthier club in 2023. 3. Royals Off-Season Recap: Signed Jordan Lyles; Traded Wyatt Mills for Jacob Wallace; Signed Ryan Yarbrough; Signed Aroldis Chapman; Traded Adalberto Mondesi for Josh Taylor; Traded Michael A. Taylor for Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz; Signed Zack Greinke Kansas City seems stuck in rebuilding mode with some high-end young players and a farm system ranking in the middle of the pack. The Royals aren't going to contend in the near future, but some exciting players are on the roster. Their place on this list is related more to what the other AL Central teams did or didn't do this winter. Aroldis Chapman is an all-time great relief pitcher, but it's hard to know what he has left in the tank. Kansas City can hope he has a great first half, and they can deal him before the trade deadline. Royals fans can pin their hopes on watching Zack Greinke join the 3,000 strikeout club with 108 Ks in 2023. 2. Guardians Off-Season Recap: Traded Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver; Traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito; Signed Mike Zunino; Signed Josh Bell; Traded Owen Miller for a PTBNL; Traded Will Benson for Justin Boyd Cleveland didn't need to add much to their roster to be projected near the top of the AL Central. Last season, projections didn't have the Guardians running away with the division, but Minnesota and Chicago fell apart. Many experts will pick Cleveland to win the division again, but they must prove that 2022 wasn't a fluke. The Guardians had a couple of offseason needs, which the team filled with Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Those aren't big-name free agents, but the club was already considered the most complete in the AL Central. Their organization continues to pump out big-league-caliber pitchers, and Jose Ramirez is one of the game's best hitters. Cleveland fans can look to the future when David Blitzer takes full ownership of the club, which could increase the team's payroll. 1. Twins Off-Season Recap: Signed Carlos Correa; Signed Christian Vazquez; Signed Joey Gallo; Trade Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer, Trade Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz for Michael A. Taylor; Trade Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio; Trade Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo Minnesota's whirlwind winter has been full of ups and downs. Correa seemed headed to multiple other organizations before returning to the Twins. Vazquez adds depth behind the plate, which was one of the team's most significant needs this winter. The front office also upgraded the rotation by trading for Pablo Lopez, even though it cost Luis Arraez. On paper, the Twins have tremendous depth throughout the roster, which can help if/when injuries impact the team in 2023. Some of the moves will help the team more than others, but the team's leaders have set high goals. Can this roster meet expectations? How would you rank the moves made by the AL Central teams this offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The purpose of these rankings is to take stock of the Twins farm system leading up to the start of the season. This year we asked 10 different Twins Daily writers, all of whom follow the minors closely, to share their choices for the current top 30 Twins prospects. Then we aggregated them into the list that's been gradually rolled out here over the past few weeks. This is a snapshot in time. Prospect rankings are never static, and in order to better follow the movement that occurs over time, last year we launched the Twins Daily Prospect Tracker. It's updated monthly throughout the season with new stats, insights, and re-rankings. I recommend bookmarking that page and checking back often if you love to follow the next generation of Twins talent. For today, we're going to dive deep on that next generation and how it's shaping the future of the franchise. First, here's a rundown of this year's top 20 rankings – you can click on each player's name to find a profile on him from one of our writers. Minnesota Twins 2023 Top 20 Prospects 20. Misael Urbina, OF: Has come along slowly since signing as a top int'l talent out of DR in 2018, but still 20 with big tools. 19. Jose Rodriguez, OF: Opened eyes with a spectacular and rare power display in the Dominican Summer League. 18. Tanner Schobel, 2B: 2022 second-round pick saw his college power spike evaporate in pro debut, fading his hype. 17. Ronny Henriquez, RHP: Slider-slinging 22-year-old seems destined to break through in full-time relief role. 16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Stellar track record keeps him on the radar following a disastrous year at Triple-A. 15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Maybe the best raw stuff in the organization, but TJ surgery will sideline him again this year. 14. Noah Miller, SS: Outstanding fielder needs to find some semblance of offensive game other than drawing walks. 13. David Festa, RHP: Former 13th-rounder's domination of Single-A sparks hope for another deep-draft pitching find. 12. Yasser Mercedes, OF: Club's biggest int'l signing last summer flashed all five tools in highly impressive rookie-ball debut. 11. Matt Wallner, OF: His off-the-charts raw power will play in the bigs if he can stay relatively disciplined at plate. 10. Austin Martin, SS: Huge dropoff after topping this list a year ago, but the speedy OBP specialist can rebound. 9. Louie Varland, RHP: Continues to outperform his stuff, but also, the stuff continues to get better for hard-working SP. 8. Jose Salas, INF: Twins picked up a dynamic young athlete via Arraez trade in this versatile switch-hitting infielder. 7. Connor Prielipp, LHP: Slid to Twins in second round of latest draft coming off elbow surgery, but has frontline SP traits. 6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Reached majors at age 22 following lights-out campaign between AA/AAA. 5. Edouard Julien, 2B: He has raked in the minors with an ultra-patient approach, and is knocking on MLB door. 4. Marco Raya, RHP: Word is out on the best-kept secret in Twins system, who dazzled in pro debut at Fort Myers. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF: Flashed superstar talent and production during full-season debut cut short by knee injury. 2. Royce Lewis, SS: Cemented legitimacy during a convincing return to action before being struck by another torn ACL. 1. Brooks Lee, SS: Drafted eighth overall with a bat that pretty much looked MLB-ready as soon as he reached the pro field. A True Deadlock at the Top The most fascinating dynamic of this year's rankings was the choice between Lee and Lewis for number one. I cannot possibly overstate how accurate the word "deadlock" is in describing the lack of separation between these high-end talents in our ranking process. The results from tabulating our panel of 10 voters placed the two in an exact tie: five voters picked Lewis, five picked Lee. In order to try and swing things one way or the other, we reached out for off-the-record opinions on the matter from a variety of trusted sources: scouting contacts, prospect analysts, baseball people inside the Twins organization and out. You know what came back? Pretty much a 50/50 split exactly. Almost everyone expressed a variation of the same sentiment: It's really hard to compare the two directly, because it all comes down to the upside & risk versus safety & floor equation. "If I had to choose, I guess I'd go with X." We all want to dream on the lofty upside Lewis still possesses: the potential for an electric power/speed combo from shortstop or center field, combined with character and charisma on the Jeter Scale. But no one can ignore the realities of a career that's been sabotaged by injuries, the latest of which undeniably clouds his future outlook. How do you properly account for this in projecting him as a major-league player? And how do you compare him to someone like Lee, who probably has a lower overall ceiling but also has one of the highest floors you could ask for in a prospect? Lee looked so polished and adept during his pro debut after signing last year that he found his way to Wichita for the Double-A playoffs and was up to the task. Lee makes it look really easy, and that's the highest compliment you can pay a 21-year-old barely out of college and facing experienced pro competition. Ultimately, we went with Lee as our choice for as the top Twins prospect of 2023, because the feedback we received seemed to tilt ever-so-slightly in that direction and because the majority of publications we chart our rankings against – MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic (both Keith Law and Aaron Gleeman) – have Lee in front of Lewis. But if there's a strong consensus to be found around these two it's this: the Twins are very lucky to have them both. Restocking the Low Minors with Upside Lee and Lewis both contribute to a robust top end of the pipeline, joining the likes of Julien, Woods Richardson, Varland, Martin, and Wallner as quality prospects who could essentially be ready to make an MLB impact at any time. But a number of breakthroughs from recent draft classes and recent high-profile international signings have populated the lower levels with promising young talent. This was missing last year, when essentially all 10 of our top prospects were in the high minors and approaching MLB-readiness, save for Chase Petty who got traded shortly after we published. The emergences of teenaged players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Raya, and Mercedes – bolstered by the acquisition of Salas in the Luis Arraez trade – have done wonders for the lower levels of this system, and the franchise's long-term talent landscape. Still Lacking Catcher Talent The lack of standout catching prospects in Minnesota's system is something I noted last year, even before Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt were traded away. It's now even more conspicuous. The Twins have sought to backfill at the MLB level with veterans like Gary Sánchez and now Christian Vázquez, but the future of this position continues to hinge on Ryan Jeffers, who has proven little at age 25. Not only were there zero catching prospects in our top 20, but if you zoom out to the top 30, none are found in the 21-through-30 range either. The highest I've seen a catcher ranked by anyone is Noah Cardenas, who was 25th on Gleeman's top 40 list, but Cardenas was profiled there as a "future backup with some starter upside." Another tough year for Jeffers, with Vázquez under control through 2025 but turning 33 in August, would leave the organization's outlook pretty flimsy behind the plate unless new names emerge. Rebound Scenarios Present X-factors Aside from some of the big risers, the most stark movements from last year's rankings were the dramatic downfalls of Martin (#1 last year, #10 this year) and Balazovic (#4 last year, #16 this year). Those are tough blows for the system and help explain why it's generally viewed as middling compared to the league. (Law ranked them 19th out of 30 organizations at The Athletic earlier this month.) The flip side is this: it's only one season, and these players are not far removed from being viewed as viable (and imminent) difference-makers with convincing track records. Martin and Balazovic are legit talents, and both will be 24 this year with ample experience in the high minors. A turnaround for either could quickly thrust them into the big-league picture. Who's Your Pick to Click in 2023? I asked this at the conclusion of last year's recap article, so I'll send it your way again. Who is your pick to click and make a huge jump in the rankings in 2023? Last year I the name I submitted was Marco Raya, and he went from Honorable Mentions to #4 on our list, so that went well. This year I will go with Keoni Cavaco, who was merely an Honorable Mention this year having fallen off the radar in three unproductive seasons since being drafted 13th overall in 2019. Cavaco wasn't good last year, but he did seem to take a step forward and he remains an athletic and toolsy infielder. I like him to escape the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and put together a strong age-21 season that vaults him back into the top 20. How about you? Past Rankings Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2017 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2016 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2015 Top Prospects Twins Daily Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS. Baseball-Reference Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS.

When Austin Martin was drafted fifth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2020 MLB First-Year Player Draft, it was considered one of the steals of the draft. Martin was viewed as the best pure hitter in the draft, and most people thought he would go number two overall behind Spencer Torkelson. Fast forward to July 2021. The Twins were having a disappointing season at 43-61 and decided to sell off some talent at the deadline. They accomplished this task by trading starting pitcher Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays in exchange for Simeon Woods Richardson and Martin, the number 16 overall prospect then, according to MLB.com. When Martin entered the organization following the trade, he immediately became the Twins top prospect, jumping everyone in the farm system including Royce Lewis. Martin was considered by all an elite prospect as recently as last spring, so it’s difficult to give up on him following just one down year. Martin's ups and downs are well documented, and he has tumbled off most top prospect boards, but does he have the ability to re-enter the conversation of future Twins infield studs with Lewis and Brooks Lee? Can he use spring training to prove that he belongs? For the most part, we won't talk much about the past, but Martin did finish 2022 on a high note, attributing an .827 OPS in September. Another encouraging area for Martin happens to be an eerily similar high note experienced by Lewis in 2019 when he was seen as a failing prospect, which was his performance in the Arizona Fall League. The Arizona Fall League takes place after the standards season in the minors wraps up and allows prospects to get extra games before the winter. In 2019, Lewis participated in the AFL and won the league MVP award with a slash line of .353/.411/.565 (.975). His performance was exciting for Twins fans because he struggled at the plate in the minors that season. As he started to slide down top prospect boards, there was worry that the once number-one overall pick might be a bust. In the AFL, Lewis experimented with eliminating his high leg kick, and the results were promising. With the 2020 minor league season canceled and Lewis tearing his ACL in 2021, the AFL was the last action we saw from him leading into the 2022 season. Although Lewis was limited to 46 games due to another tear in the same ACL, he mashed in 2022. Whether in Triple-A or the MLB, Lewis was explosive at the plate, putting to rest the doubt that he could live up to the lofty expectations that come with being drafted number one overall. In 2021, Martin experienced similar success as Lewis once had in the AFL. In 21 games, Martin put together a .374/.454/.482 (.936) slash line and added 10 stolen bases. He adjusted his approach at the plate and hitting mechanics, and although the sample size was small, the results showed immediately. Martin is undoubtedly riding some positive momentum heading into spring training. Still, a quick look at the future outlook of the Twins' defense shows a rather crowded group that may make it difficult for Martin to find a permanent spot. His top two positions are shortstop and center field, but those two spots are held down at the major league level by Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the next six years. Lewis, Lee, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff also have to have assumed roles in the Twins' plans, but there is something that Martin possesses that could make him more valuable to the team and give him a place should he prove he belongs. Martin is a phenomenal athlete with enough versatility to play anywhere on the field. If he can get himself back on track and force the Twins to find a role for him, he would excellently fit the mold of a super-utility man, just as Marwin Gonzalez did for the Twins in 2019 and 2020. Finding a defensive home for Martin may be easy, as he possesses the athleticism and versatility to play almost anywhere on the field. Spring Training 2023 will be a very interesting and important one for Austin Martin. He is a supremely talented baseball player with plenty of tools that could make him an above-average everyday player at the MLB level. Martin has the opportunity over the next two months to prove that his adjustments in the AFL were legitimate and that he possesses defensive versatility. If he can do so, he could force himself back into the Twins' plans and re-enter the conversation of top prospect with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee.