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I hate the idea of moving Ober to the pen and suspect the front office feels the same way. I'm pretty okay with Winder going to the pen.

They way I see it, if they go with a 13 man pitching staff, They have Lopez, Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober, the the relief pitchers Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Maeda, Winder, Moran and Pagen. With Sands, Varland, Megill, Henriquez and Alcala next up. So unless they plan on trading or cutting Pagen or Megill it doesn't make sense to bring in another arm and let Varland, Alcala, and Sands rot in the minors. It isn't like these are young guys that just need more time, they either need to pitch in the majors or be let go.

It does feel like they are banking on the rotation giving more innings per start compared to last year. On paper, that actually does make quite a bit of sense. And IF the rotation gives more innings, meaning less innings that the bullpen HAS to cover on a per-game basis, that helps too. I still think they add at least one more arm before opening day. Quotes like this seem more like posturing than anything else.

There’s probably a way to create a Pagan question.

They won't put Canterino on the 60-Day IL unless something crazy happens. Why would they pay him $750,000 to not play (and MLB service time) when they can option him to St. Paul, pay him $15K per month and not give any service time. But, along with the starting pitcher depth, the hope is there would be more health, so there should be more 6-inning starts. Finally, why go sign a guy like Fulmer (and he's probably the best out there), rather than just throwing Winder, Henriquez, Sands, and even Ober if he's not in the rotation. I mean, later in the season, maybe even someone like Varland or Balazovic can come up and have an impact.

They have two 40-man roster spots (Canterino and Paddack) opening up when spring training begins. If they don't add two pitchers to replace the two injured pitchers they're mismanaging the roster. There are lots of decent relievers who would add depth.

Polanco has nothing to prove! It's unfair to single him out & ask him to match Arraez OBP. It's much more fair to ask Kiriloff or Gallo can they match Arraez glove at 1B? The answer would be undeniably yes, And ask Gordon if he could match Arraez in quality innings played? the answer would be undeniably yes. Or if he would match Arraez match Arraez as a scoring threat? the answer would be undeniable yes. IMO if we ask Gordon to replace Arraez as the lead-off hitter, he'd arise (Arraez, I'm sorry, it's a pun) to the occasion. He'd run the bases well & become a scoring threat and even try to focus on improving his OBP. But to ask anyone on the roster to match Arraez's OBP is a pretty tall order. Julien would be the one, once he's ready & there's an opening. Awarding Gordon playing time would be a challenge. He has proven that he should played. He could play at DH or Buxton replacement in CF against RHPs. He'd be our lead off hitter whenever he's playing, & when trades are made, that'll free up more playing time Others are fair expectations, Nick and these questions should be asked. IMO these players will arise to the challenge & meet them. Before Baldelli was encouraged to lead off with Arraez, he'd lead off with Garver & Kepler. Maybe he'll go that route again with Farmer & Kepler. I think another fair challenge is if Kepler & Gallo can get out of their hitting funk with this new shift ban? I expect Kepler to but Gallo I have my doubts. His righty counter parts Sano & Sanchez couldn't do it. I really hope he does but wishing doesn't make it happen.

Assuming Celestino and Matt Wallner start the year in St. Paul, and that Kirilloff gets a few starts in RF, the Twins will have more outfield arms than bullpen arms. Seems smart. If your tired mediocre bullpen that pitches more than 4 innings per game starts to falter, your stacked outfield can surely get those extra outs.

I take issue saying "there's little upside" when talking about Arraez at 1B. When a guy gets on base at the rate he does, IMO that's upside, especially when you factor in that this FO has structured the team to be a HR hitting team. Dougie M. didn't hit for much power either yet he was a stable at 1st for a few years. I'm going to miss Arraez as he was the most entertaining guy on the team.

I'm surprised and not at all surprised by this all at the same time. Given the fact that they have multiple rotation guys coming back from injury, it stands to reason that they could move at least one of those to the pen. Same with a couple of the prospects. I'd still rather they bring in at least one more solid reliever. All that said, you can never have enough pitching.

This article could have been written about essentially every Twin (Mahle, Maeda, both Lopez’s, Pagan, Buxton, Gallo, Kiriloff, Kepler - just to name a few). “Something to Prove” or “Bounce Back” is essentially the basis of the FO’s entire strategy this season. But re the five highlighted: Ryan will be solid against all teams (new favorite Twin). Polanco will be middling - 0.350s OBP and .250 BA, including while playing the second half of the season on another team, Gordon’s misuse - sitting him behind Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor - will be one of the biggest mistakes of the year. That guy so earned a bigger role. He must be begging for a trade. It’s hard to imagine we are bagging the development of Gordon, Larnach, Wallner and Martin for those three “past their primes”. Maybe that changes by the deadline. Miranda will be serviceable at 3B and at the plate - until he moves to his future more permanent position 1B later in the year and begins to rake. Alcala may be the entire key to pen and will have a super season.

Can Larnach & Kirilloff stay on the field?

Point: Give Joey Gallo a Chance Counterpoint: no

So the Twins FO like some of the fans thought that Kepler had more value then he actually had, so they are deciding it is better to keep him (at least for the time being) then to trade him. I think realistic fans assumed this would probably be the case. Take a chance with the new rules on a guy that has been pretty good over a low level prospect.

Where would you rank the addition of Nick Paparesta as the team's head athletic trainer? I honestly think that might be #2 for me.

If I wanted to pick up a reliever, the last thing I would do is tell the world it was a top priority. Why raise prices unnecessarily?

Maeda isn't going to start the year in the pen, he's in the rotation. More likely Ober starts the year in AAA, or the pen. And I'd be surprised if they had Winder in the big league pen and not the AAA rotation instead of Alcala in the big league pen. But I can also see why they aren't looking to bring in another arm. Although, I'd like to bring in Chafin if it's possible. I'm not sold on Thielbar maintaining his production at 36 and would prefer Moran starts in AAA (even though I think he can be a stud) with Thielbar and Chafin in the bigs to provide a little more depth. But I'd be good waiting until I get Paddack on the 60-day to try to sign Chafin.

If we get the Lopez of 22 and the Galo of 21, we're in for an exciting season..

I would think Lewis will be on the 60 day IL as well

Good article... My top 5 1. Management understanding that Nick Gordon is an essential piece for this team to be successful. In other words he needs to get 500+ PA's 2. Correa being Correa 3. As you pointed out Joe Ryan pitching more effectively against better opposing lineups 4. The young group of hitters (Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach & Wallner) staying healthy & producing in whatever role they have. 5. Polanco getting back to his 2021 form.

I wonder, does this signal that they're thinking about moving guys like Winder or maybe even Ober to the pen?

I think one of the challenges Gallo has faced on TD is that he’s not Carlos Correa. By that, I mean that he signed when many on TD were in a “Correa or Bust” mindset. So when Gallo signed early, many expressed their angst that we weren’t going to get C4, and that angst both spiraled in general and translated to a frustration about Gallo and his style of play in particular I think there are similar dynamics at play in many folks’ perception of Farmer. Even though it was early, people interpreted the Farmer trade as a sign they didn’t think we could get C4 and that the FO was settling for Farmer as a bridge to Lewis. In reality, in the context of their overall plan and the roster they’ve developed, I think it was a shrewd move to trade Urshela for Farmer, but I don’t think the FO has gotten much credit for that move either. And even Vazquez. I haven’t seen anyone complain about that signing, but neither has there been much celebration about getting the second-best catcher on the market. We were too concerned about not yet having signed a top-flight shortstop I get it. I didn’t particularly enjoy watching Gallo as a member of opposing teams, but I do enjoy winning, and I think he can help the Twins do that. I’ll also repeat a statement I’ve made elsewhere, which is that I just find it more enjoyable to go through life expecting the best rather than expecting the worst. I think the former is what the OP is encouraging us to do.

The Twins could really use a good developmental year, something they haven't had much luck with recently. Getting fully healthy seasons from Kirilloff, Larnach, and Winder could have a big impact at the major league level. Seeing Lewis and Canterino return with the same production they had when they went down would add some high-end depth later in the season. Finally, Balazovic and Martin need to get back on track and show why they used to be elite prospects. That's a ton of talent that just hasn't been able to stay healthy or take the next step developmentally.

Maybe you need to consider changing your book. Look at OPS and WAR instead of BA. Batting average just doesn't tell enough of the story. Joey Gallo is a good player capable of producing for the Twins, but you have to give the guy a chance and understand what he does well.

You think signing an ok RP is the difference between fireable and not?

How did Cleveland get such a strong, deep bullpen. I know they traded for Clase when he was a prospect and then had to wait out a suspension. Without looking, did they go out and spend on $6-10 million relievers, or did they develop their guys and at some point start turning things over to their own guys and trusting their development. Chafin would mean that Moran likely goes back to St. Paul. Chafin has nothing left. That move might make the Twins worse. I'm OK with Fulmer. Solid 6th/7th inning guy. At some point, you have to trust your guys. Otherwise, you don't get Duran, Moran, or even Griffin Jax. Was he better in 2021 than Sands and Winder were in 2022? Not saying they'll be the same success stories if moved to the 'pen, but can't shut down that possibility.

It's almost like people forget this was NOT the strategy before last year, when they had injured and bad starters. I have no idea why anyone thinks it will be the same as last year. none. I also see no need to add any of the available RPers. I'm not 100% sure they are better than the existing options, especially if Alcala is healthy. If they are in at the break, and need a RP, and a great one is there, they will trade for them.

Agreed. Ober's stuff seems like it would play better as a rotation guy. Winder is basically the opposite.

You're paying $750,000 for the opportunity to add someone else to the roster. I would be surprised if they never use Canterino's 40 man spot some time next season. You bring up a good point that they could wait until May to use that spot and gain that extra year of service time He's controlled ages 25-30, delaying service time means you get his age 31 season. I'm not convinced Canterino will still be in organized baseball at age 32.

If they hated it so much, they probably wouldn't have traded for Lopez and then immediately tell us that Maeda has a rotation spot too. Don't get me wrong, I ALSO wanted another rotation spot open for a younger pitcher and Ober has easily been the most undervalued starter this team has employed the last two years. I also don't much care about free agent relievers; ain't a one of them any more reliable than what the Twins already have as options. Point being, relief pitchers by and large are not reliable, paying for them is a sucker move. But the Twins have had success as of late turning starters into their best bullpen pieces, so I prefer that move over free agents.

You look at it and they have Lopez, Duran and Jax as solid top end pen arms. Thielbar might be close to that group as well. Question marks with Alcala, Pagan and Megill. They could be good, bad or somewhere in between. That leaves them with Henriquez, Sands, and Moran which should be solid lower end options for 6th, 7th inning. If needed they can also use Winder in the pen. Off the 40 man they have Coulombe and Dobnak as possible pen arms and Schulfer or Laweryson might also be options if they start out well in AAA. So they have a fair bit of depth for the pen right now. If disaster struck they could use Varland and SWR in that role for a while as well. So I guess I can see Falvey's point. Unless they are going to add a top end arm which they don't like to pay for then they probably don't need to add unless a deal they really like comes along. They will use at least 2 if not all 3 of the roster spots that come available. Hopefully one for another right handed bat and the other two for waiver claims on borderline 40 man pitchers that get waived as teams pick up more players as spring training nears. Or maybe, just maybe they find a guy they like for the right price and they sign him.

Nick Gordon, shown the pine in favor of guys like Taylor and Gallo. What the f.....

If this is how the team views him, and actually uses him, then if I was Gordon I'd be demanding a trade out of here. If actually performing doesn't work then what will? I feel for the guy.

1. Can Alex Kirilloff stay healthy or is he the next Byron Buxton? 2. what does a healthy Trevor Larnach look like and what is his ceiling? 3. can they find 2019 Emilio Pagan? 4. Will we get the good, the bad, or the ugly Jorge Lopez? 5. What will Ryan Jeffers look like Offensively?

To address Ryan, you do not point out that he still had good games against non KC or Det, but his numbers were really blown up against non KC or Det by a few games. SD 10 runs in 4.2 innings will really affect that ERA. Then he had like 3 other games were he did not pitch well, giving up a run per inning over 4 or 5 innings. However, he still had quailty starts against Cleveland, Boston, Texas(one of the games he lost because Twins got shut out) Baltimore and Giants as well. The 6 worst starts was SD, Yankees, Dodgers, Houston, Boston, Seattle. All close to 9.00 ERA or higher with 5 or less innings pitched. The Yankees and Dodgers beat up everyone, scoring each scoring over 800 runs. Houston scored 737, 3rd in AL, Boston was 4th scoring 735(you did not mention he 6 innings giving up 1 run in one of the Boston starts), SD and Seattle were middle of road offenses. Outside of those, he gave up 3 or less runs. Yes, sometimes in only 4 innings, but he cannot control if Rocco pulls him after 70 plus pitches over 4 innings. If he goes out has 1 or 2 scoreless innings the numbers look a whole lot better. Rocco did not trust he would, but not like he got blown up. Yes, he beat up on worst offense in league, as he should. I would be more concerned if he got beat up by them. You claim he needs to show he can stop better offenses, but he did well against Boston in one game, and Cleveland, SF, Brewers, Texas, who all scored either close to 700 or more than 700 runs last year in the top half of the league. You suggest he never pitched well against a non bottom feeding offense, but KC even was not bottom, they were bottom half, but he had good games against top half offenses too. Every pitcher has some bad games, and if you take away all the good to great games, of course the pitcher will look bad. If he only won against Det or KC and was blown up by every other team, like you suggest, I would agree, but that simply is not true he had really 6 bad games out of 27, I would say 12 good to great games(compared to his others based on ER and innings pitched, he did not allow more than 1 ER in 12 games, not all were against KC and Det. That leaves 9 okay games giving up 2 to 3 runnings over 4 to 6 innings. He was slotted to be our 1 number guy out the gate, but he was still a rookie and did just fine against non bottom feeders. Was he an Ace no, but even Aces have bad games sometimes, and will feast on bad teams.

In terms of importance, I would start with Ryan pitching well against good opponents. He obviously has to get over that hurdle to be of value in the post season. Next for me would be Alcala finding a way to be more effective against LH hitting. That would make him very valuable. Then, I would have to go with Miranda at 3B. If Kirilloff is healthy he is the 1B and that might be more important than the 5 players listed here. Miranda actually looked better to me at 3B than he did at 1B. It would be great to see a more fit Miranda play at least average defense at 3B. We don't want Polanco to replace the OBP of Arraez. we need Polanco to play a good 2B and produce an OPS of 826 like he did in 2021 or 846 like he did in 2019. That would be more valuable than reproducing Arraez OBP with an OPS 60+ points lower that Polanco. I would love to see Gordon take it up another notch. That would make him a valuable asset. Having him and Martin in super utility roles would be ideal. They could cover every position except catcher and 1B. It would also likely mean that Larnach and or Wallner have delivered.

As the late, great John Lennon said, Give Peace a Chance Two, one-two-three-four! Ev'rybody's talking 'bout Bagism, Shagism, Dragism, Madism, Ragism, Tagism This-ism, that-ism, is-m, is-m, is-m All we are saying is give peace (and Joey Gallo) a chance

I too am encouraged regarding the potential health of these two players. I specifically hope that they can be in the lineup a substantial amount of time to help make up for the loss of Luis Arreaz and believe that they will in fact do that if healthy.

I always thought it was weird that they thought they could get much value for him. Keep him, fine. But does he have to be promised a starting job? Larnach, Wallner and Gordon should all have a shot at getting the RF job, seniority should have zero impact on the decision either. Kepler just is not productive any longer.

It seems like the trade deadline is a better time to find takers for a glove-first outfielder anyway.

Good dude. Great story! Giving back! He also gave the Twins some nice innings in his times in the big leagues. He did a nice job in the year of the Opener, often coming in as the bulk guy. He mixed and matched and changed speeds and did whatever he could. I wish him well.

Because of the hold out in '22, Smeltzer had a head start. He came out of ST, IMO our best ready SP. The Twins should have taken advantage of him early, but he started out in AAA, It wasn't until he was burning up AAA & a few down MLB SPs that they finally brought him up. He did well until the hitters began to erase Smeltzer's advantage. Smeltzer was the most stretched out SP & he should have been chosen over rookies Ober & Winder & iffy Paddack. They were injured early because management try to overstretch them in the rotation too soon. If Smeltzer was in the rotation from the start (and kept Ober & Winder as long relief/ spot starter), he'd have handled the workload and Ober & Winder would not have gone on the IL. Plus we could've enjoyed Smeltzer's effective advantage longer. After Smeltzer lost his advantage, I can understand why Smeltzer was let go. The fish we discarded, was picked up by the school of Marlins. Maybe Smeltzer will learn something new & thrive there. Thank you, Devin for your accomplishments here & wish you well!

Nick, You have written another outstanding article. Great questions backed by some facts that I was not aware of. 1) Ryan's stats against KC and Detroit vs. "other teams"; 2) Polanco's increased walk rate; 3) the fact that lefty "pitchers' have pummeled Alcala. I only mentioned # 3 because I just wanted you to know that I am the first reader to find your intentionally placed "Hidden Mistake", which you sometimes put in your articles to gage if anyone is really reading your outstanding articles closely.

The next prospect list! Of course I have to comment! 30] BYRON CHOURIO: He's so brand new to the organization I know ZERO about him except what I've read the past couple of weeks. Young, talented, projectile, but so far away I just don't know you rank him. So why not 30? And with a first name like that, he's got to be good, right? (And I'm not talking Buxton, high 5'er if you get my tongue in cheek reference, lol). 29] AARON SABATO: I get 1st round status and what he did in college. I get the power. I get having a good eye and the ability to draw walks. But when you hit this poorly at A and AA, it tells me your eye is going to betray you as you climb forward without a major adjustment. Better pitchers await at AAA and especially the ML level. Right now, I don't see him actually "hitting" and I wouldn't have him in the top 30 until I see real signs of improvement with the bat. 28] KALA'I ROSARIO: He's got some nice tools to work with and is only 20yr old. The FSL has always had the reputation as being a hard league to hit in. In previous days, if you could hit there, the transition to AA should be pretty smooth. NOW, it's a transition to A+ if you can hit there. It's almost unfair that Ft Myers is your 1st or 2nd year??? But then again, if you can hit there, should be a relatively smooth transition on promotion. Logic says the 20yo Rosario should begin at Ft Myers again. But I can see a mid year promotion to CR and decent results when it happens. 27] YUNIOR SEVERINO: Last year, before the season stated, we did a sort of "pick to click" at different levels. He was one of my choices and I'm going to pat my own back on that one, lol. He's young enough, and produced quite well at both levels last season that I would rank him at least a few spots higher. His defensive home and role is yet to be established, but he's got good talent. I think he's a safe bet to be at St Paul about mid season. 26 & 24] BRYAN ACUNA & DANNY De ANDRE: I have them grouped together as they are only a year apart, play the same position. And there's a good chance they will both begin 2023 in the FCL. Both seem to have the skills to stick at SS at this point. Acuna has family bloodlines that can't be ignored, and had a solid debut in the DSL. De Andre didn't have as good of a season with the bat, but he was also state side for the first time. Regardless of what spot you want to rank them, they were top international signings with projection and are so close that I group them together. Both a long way away but so similar, why not have them both in the bottom third but with the ability to really grow. 25] BRENT HEADRICK: I have a soft spot for LHP, primarily because good ones are few and far between, and the Twins haven't had a lot of good ones for a while. Headrick only threw 3.2 innings after being drafted in 2019, and then missed all of 2020. So college pitcher or not, 2021 was really his first true taste of professional baseball. I think that's important to look at, as it is for other 2019 draftees. He was good in 2021 and even better in 2022, as the OP shows. I just don't know enough about his cureent velocity at this point to know if his numbers are based on control and deception, or is his FB a legitimate, solid option to go along with his other pitches to remain in the rotation. If he's a legitimate 92-93+ with control and can keep his other offerings solid, then he's a potential rotation piece. And I hope that is the case. You can't deny his numbers at this point. (Reminiscent of Ober a couple years ago). At worst I see him as a high quality middle bullpen arm. 23] COLE SANDS: And here is where I might get some negative feedback. His milb numbers have been pretty damn good up until 2022. I had actually forgotten how good his 2021 season at AA was. Coming in to 2022, I saw him as a St Paul rotation fixture with a chance to help the Twins at some point. We'll, things didn't quite work out that way. He wasn't great at AAA, and wasn't exactly great with the Twins. But if you actually watched his games with the Twins, what you saw was a crappy inning, or half crappy inning, along with a really good looking "other" inning or half inning. What I saw was a decent FB that needs a little more "hop" or control, and some breaking pitches that were just NASTY and left a few batters embarrassed. For a rookie basically skipping most of AAA, I saw what I expected, someone not yet ready. But you could SEE there was an arm there with stuff. I NEVER want to give up on a possible rotation arm too early. And I suspect the Twins will want to have him in the St Paul rotation to make damn sure he isn't a possible SP option. But I have a hunch he could end up being a really good BP piece with a decent FB, and a pair of breaking pitches that could play really well. 22] BLAYNE ENLOW: What else is there to say? He was OK in early work as an overslot HS signee who flashed briefly before TJ to begin 2021. He was mediocre last year in 2022. Not bad, but mediocre results overall. But I'm not sure what people expect. He was one of the top HS arms in the country when the Twins offered him enough $ to skip college. So he was OK, flashed, and then was injured. Protected, DFA, he's still in the system. I wouldn't have grabbed him in the rule 5, but the Twins thought enough of him and his potential to try to keep him. They succeeded. NOW, with a full season of "getting back to business and figuring myself out again", the still 23yo SHOULD be ready to take a step forward. If he does, he's back on the 40 man and has a future. If not, he might be gone. I never like dismissing any prospect after an injury ruined season. Not right, not fair. But 2023 is his prove it season. 21] JAYLEN NOWLIN: I can not tell a lie. This is my favorite on this list. I follow the draft and the entire milb system very closely, but I had forgotten about him as he was a 19th round pick in 2021. Not sure why, but he pitched 1/3 of an inning. Late signing??? But I DO RECALL Seth talking about him last offseason as someone to watch after instruction league. So really, 2022 was his FIRST milb season. And GOOD CALL for Seth to be watching and plugged-in to this kid. Control is obviously an issue, though that is certain for every prospect. But more to the point, is there potential for a 3rd offering? Control or not, he needs some kind of change, cutter, splitter, etc, to remain in the rotation. I never buy in to height and weight on the milb site as they always seem behind. But if he's gained a few pounds/muscles at his age to get beyond the reported 180lbs, he might be able to maintain that reported 97mph velocity and be a legitimate SP with a 3rd pitch.. REGARDLESS, the Twins might have drafted themselves a hell of a powerful LHRP who could debut in a year or two. A nice group of 10 that I like. Potential. Done with Sabato until he shows me something more. Really surprised he's in the top 30. A few "wait and see" kids that ranking doesn't matter. Four pitchers that could contribute or make a big rise this season.

Wait and see. We have anticipated long enough with Lewis and Kiriloff and Larnach - now it is time to produce or look to the next group.

The article was about the youth of the organization. Buxton is 29, so not really in that conversation anymore. That said, no mention of Lewis either. I still think he's extremely important to the organization's future, either on the roster and healthy or by being trade bait for a key upgrade.