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Why would Pirates have any interest in Kepler? I get Winder and a pick, but why Kepler? They are in no way going to be competing in the next few years. He adds nothing to their team. Suer, the magic trade machine says they fit, but you need to remember the team taking on someone like Kepler will want to be in win now mode, if they are giving away assets. Would Pirates take him if he was put on waivers, maybe, but they would never give up an asset to get him, as he does not fit their plans going forward.

Unfortunately this was a good article about Kep's limitations. What struck me was the ridiculous number of times Kep batted in the 1-4 spots in the batting order in 2022. This fact does not speak well for Rocco, who kept putting Kep in those spots in the batting order. " The left side of the infield is wide open. And Kepler swings and hits a two-hopper to the second baseman, who throws him out at first."

Gonna need to drink a lot of water before I visit the gravesite of Bally Sports.

I want the Twins to keep playing Kepler because he is my wife's favorite player and I get less crap about watching the games when he is in the lineup.

Kepler still a Twin on opening day? Gallo playing 1B? Where have I heard that before... I don't think anybody has said that he is a long term piece of the puzzle or a "core" piece. But he does have value, more than people think. He should benefit from the shift ban and he is a very reasonably priced piece batting 7th. Let the "We have to trade Kepler!" screaming commence.

Let the playing field decide what action or non action needs to be taken. Even by his not so pretty 2022 stats he is economically priced as far as payroll and value are concerned, There is a chance he rebounds with the new rules and even swipes some bags. If that happens you have a valuable piece going forward whether on the field or to trade. If he stays at 2022 levels on the field you still have the same value at the trade deadline as you have now. My hope and prediction is that he finally gets it and adjusts launch angle on his swing and we will enjoy watching him play for the Twins this year.

Heh. I actually learned this last night while reading a novel. Always fun to realize you've been doing something wrong for about 35 years.

Unless the Twins feel payroll would be an issue as it stands they have the 40 man room to keep Kepler. When they put Canterino, Paddack, and Lewis on the IL they will have three 40 man spots open up so they can get a 1st baseman and a couple of relievers if they want to. I don't think they should just give Kepler away as they are an injury or two away from needing him and they had lots of injuries last year. I think they would likely gain better leverage if another team has injuries and needs Max and is willing to overpay to get a deal done. Things could change or open up once teams IL spots open up so I wouldn't say Max is safe just yet. But I like that the Twins are wiling to be patient and see alternate scenario's for Kepler.

“Said the unloved man.” 😂 you know it’s going to be good when that’s the end of the first sentence.

I really like the way Sonny pitches. I like watching him throw. He is almost an Artist. Almost an Ace.

I know I can be very optimistic. But I honestly believe one of our starters will establish themselves as a solid number 1 this season. Plenty of options and opportunities arise.

The Twins finished 78-84, 3rd in the division and 14 games back of Cleveland. This year however I believe enough has changed for the Twins to win the division and get past the Guardians and White Sox. Now I'm way to optimistic of a Twins fan and usually come up disappointed but as always "this year is different." Below is a list of 5 reasons of why this team is a winning one. DIFFERENT TEAM The first and biggest reason is this team is a lot different from last season. We picked up Joey Gallo who I am very skeptical of but also understand the value he can provide if he can be even a glimpse of what he used to be. We added Christian Vasquez who should anchor most of the games behind the plate. Kyle Farmer was the first acquisition of the off-season and initially looked like a sorry answer to losing Carlos Correa. However this move has turned into a trade for a solid utility player. Michael A. Taylor was another trade that didn't require much but is an upgrade to the defense and a right handed bat to platoon against lefties. Finally we acquired Pablo Lopez to sure up a rotation and potentially make it the best Twins rotation in years. DEPTH The next reason is the depth this Twins lineup has. Last year the injury bug never stopped and got worse as the season went on. The addition of Farmer, Gallo, and Taylor provides solid option when players especially Buxton get hurt. With these guys it should ensure we don't have any situations like last season getting stuck with guys like Gilberto Celetino, Sandy Leon, Caleb Hamilton, Jermaine Palacios, Tim Beckham, Mark Contreas, etc. getting playtime despite not performing. ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION Keeping on the topic of bad players. The Twins should get more wins this season based off of addition by subtraction specifically in the pitching department. Guys like Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Josh Winder, Emilio Pagan, Cole Sands. All of these guys lost games for the Twins. Guys like Winder and Sands are still on the team but should hopefully stay down in AAA. Pagan will sadly probably make the team but at least have a shorter leash before the Twins let him blow up this bullpen. Anyway, Dylan Buddy while he did win 8 games for us still lost 8 as well and didn't go deep into games costing our bullpen. Chris Archer lost 8 games as well and only won 2. Josh Winder lost 6 although I really like him I just think he needs more time to get healthy and develop. Pagan lost 6 games as well and half of those were the heart wrenching ones against Cleveland. Cole Sands didn't pitch a lot but he still lost 3 games for the Twins. Now I know wins and losses aren't always a good stat to describe pitchers but I think everyone can agree these pitchers hurt the Twins way more than helping them. Thankfully the way the roster is shaping out this year with the starting 5 basically already a lock we don't have to sign this bargain bin starting pitchers. Made coming back from injury whether he starts or pitches from the bullpen will be a big help too. This leads me into the next reason. GETTING HEALTHY The Twins struggled with injuries all year last and it was hard to watch especially after the Twins were projected to win the division. I saw somewhere that Twins players missed a total of 1,410 days due to injury. That was the most in the MLB by about 250 days. Thankfully going into 2023 spring training guys are finally getting healthy. I believe this year will be different for a few reasons. With last year being such a horrible year for injuries it will now be high on the Twins radar. We are already seeing this with the Twins firing the old trainer. Guys like Kenta Maeda, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, Jorge Alcala, and Tyler Mahle who missed a lot of time last year should be able to positively impact this team. Buxton as always is a huge question mark but if he can stay healthy he has true MVP potential. POTENTIAL Now I definitely have some hard Twins bias and way too much optimism but I think this Twins team is criminally underrated. Joey Gallo has the potential to get back to his Ranger days hitting 40 homers a season while hitting 450 foot bombs. Guys like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have dealt with injuries early on in their career and we still haven't seen what they can do with a full season. Guys like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon broke out and showed they belong on this team. The biggest potential however is the starting rotation. Joe Ryan has been a star but I think he still has room to grow. The 6' 7 giant Bailey Ober also looks to improve after his rookie year. Tyler Mahle fought shoulder issues and we haven't even been close to seeing the value we thought we were getting when we traded for him. Sonny Gray has been pretty solid and looks to continue his success hopefully with less injuries. Finally newest Twin Pablo Lopez is still only 27 and some tweaks to his pitch selection and change of scenery could help him be even more successful than he was in Miami. Now a stronger and healthier rotation should help the bullpen as well. The Twins bullpen pitched a total of 654 innings in 2022. That's the fourth most in the MLB. Compare that to the 2022 World Series Champions, the Astros bullpen threw 159 less innings. If Rocco actually manages well and lets the starting rotation got longer we should not have to watch as many bullpen meltdowns in 2023.

They should include... fundamentals by the players and the manager! We have lost our way or should I say the "Twins Way" with sound fundaments including Baserunning, situational hitting, fielding and managerial fundamentals of how to use a pitching staff!! Mr. Falvey... please address these as THESE are why we have been going the wrong direction. Thank you... Twins Fans.

Good Article - Fair Assessment in my opinion. I've been hard on Kepler and I don't want to be hard on him anymore. I truly want him to succeed and I hope he does in a Twins uniform... we can really use a Max Kepler playing above average. If I had Kepler - I wouldn't trade him If I didn't have Kepler - I wouldn't trade for him. We are not in the current position to be skinny with our outfield options. I'm all for giving him the opportunity to win the job... I am against simply giving him the job. It's easy to look at all of these options and say let's clear some people out of there but we need the depth and the competition just to find the players who will get the job done assuming that some might not. Don't want to choose wrong and be left with players who are not hitting with no place to turn. Let them compete and then clear out the ones who lose the competition.

The reference to Kepler in the top four spots needs a deeper look. He batted very rarely in the top three spots (18 games). He was No. 4 in 44 games, but the vast majority of those were between games 60 and 96, when their other options were an as-yet-unproven Miranda, Celestino, Sanchez/Jeffers, Kirilloff, an unproven Gordon, Cave, etc. In a decent number of games in that stretch, he did bat fourth in front of Polanco, but that’s more about batting lefties 1-4-7. Don’t forget as well that by definition, the top of the order gets more plate appearance. The 1-4 spots don’t get just 4/9 of the plate appearances (44.4%) as a team. Last year, they got nearly 50 percent. The opening statement says it’s time for the Twins to “realize what they have” in Kepler. I think it’s precisely because they DO realize what they have that they haven’t traded him. He’s the quintessential “floor” player. If he stays healthy, plays a great right field, and bats ninth on a regular basis (which is where I think his skill set fits best with the current roster), that’s a good lineup. At this point, if they do end up trading him, I hope it’s for a reliever, but I’d rather just sign a Fulmer type or two.

I feel like I need to correct the record based on what I'm seeing in the comment section: It's shoo-in, not "shoe in."

Joe deserves to get in. He did what no catcher had done since the thirties, and then repeated it. Yes, he had boring walk-up music, boring interviews, many years with less than desirable power - But overall, he should be a shoe-in.

Arraez isn't close to MVP. Also, they aren't overloaded....they literally used 9 OFers last year. I'm guessing he's going to turn 2 with Polanco, who is a better overall player than Arraez (O, D, running all taken into account). As for the SP, they are also not overloaded. I'd be shocked if we don't see Varland, Ober, and SWR all start games this year.

Frank Viola and Brad Radke were also changeup masters. Approaching any of the three would be a great achievement and a huge asset.

Huge Kepler fan. Been rooting for the kid since he was signed and has been one of my favorite players. Even still I can see his time with the Twins is probably coming to an end. With Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and possibly Lewis you have younger, less expensive options that are likely to be better offensive players based on what Max has done the past 2yrs, and most of his career, ignoring that great 2019. Again, huge fan. Always wanted him to reach All Star status. He's a nice ballplayer. But just a glimpse and brief overview of his career page on any site will show you he's an average producer for his career. I hope the more limited shift will help him. I really do. But it's only going to give him maybe a dozen more hits if he can't figure out how to hit the ball hard again. Strong, athletic, still young, where did his power go to? But there's no need to rush on a trade of Max, unless the deal is just too good to pass up. Larnach will get time in both corners and DH. Wallner wouldn't be hurt with a little more refinement time in St Paul. If Gallo doesn't become his old self again, keeping Kepler has given you more options. If Gallo does become his old self again, and Krilloff isn't ready yet, Gallo helps cover 1B and again Kepler is providing depth options. I do think Kepler is gone fairly soon. I just don't know if it's now, mid season, or the end of the season. But I think its OK to not rush things either.

This is the most convincing argument I've seen on either side of the topic. KEEP KEPLER, for the good of USNMCPO's marriage!

I hope this is the catalyst that ends local blackouts.

Linked in the article but Mike Petriello on Baseball Savant broke down Kepler's case for the shift change and basically determined that Kepler would only get a handful of singles per season. Among concerns noted, Kepler actually has a higher BABIP against the shift than without. Also noted is Kepler has hit the 5th most pop ups among all left handed hitters over the last 5 years. It's less about where the fielders are for Kepler and more about how poorly he impacts the ball and the launch angles he does it at. Yes he's a dead pull hitter which can be exploited by the shift, but when he's hitting the ball softly either straight up in the air or straight into the ground, the fielders don't matter.

I like keeping Kep around for two reasons. 1) Let's see how he does with the shift changes. 2) I love the thought of him in RF with Buck in center and Gallo in LF for their defense. They can chase down lots of line drives and get some OF assists with their arms. If he has issues throughout the first half of the year or does well but we have others pushing him out of a starting role, then look to trade him at the deadline.

FWIW, Gallo's wRC+ against lefties in his career is about 20% higher than Kepler's and their matchups against righties are about the same. Taylor's splits against lefties is also much better than Kepler's. Between those two and Larnach who graded incredibly well in LF last season, I find Kepler pretty redundant. I think he's the second worst outfield option on the team with a lefty pitching and is probably 5th best against righties behind Buxton, Gallo, Larnach, and Gordon. I think when a guy is that far down on the depth chart because of offense we have to start wondering just how valuable their defense really is.

FWIW I have two Kepler jerseys. He's one of my favorite Twins from that 2019-2020 back to back division leaders teams. Just an unfortunate reality of baseball however that he's been a part of the injury problems the last few years and hasn't been an offensive contributor in really any fashion. Twins were saying he had legitimate value in trade which was when I really came around to trading him. If that's changed and they see more value in keeping him now I'm cool with it. I'm just really going to question what we're doing if he's in the top half of the lineup on opening day.

I never thought they had to but I think it makes a lot of sense. Given how little of a benefit Kepler is projected to get from the shift, his value may never be higher. If he goes out there and hits .210 and slugs .400 again the Twins are just going to decline his $10m option for 2024 and he's probably fighting for an MLB deal next winter. Even trading him for a serviceable reliever makes sense in that scenario but if they hold him for depth and not as a starting caliber player that's fine as well.

Lots of guys at Serum’s this afternoon are going to mad about this article.

I think if Gray stays healthy and is allowed to go deeper into games he will be that guy. He knows how to pitch and he can throw.

I read where there is also some discontent with Marlins fans regarding this trade. To me that means it must be a fair trade for both teams.

I'm optimistic because the FO has responded to a year with unheard of injury with a level of unheard of depth.

Just hope that MLB is able to get their product available to everyone.

I haven't done a lot of digging, but Mike Petriello/Statcast, Eno Sarris, Ben Clemons (or someone at Fangraphs), and Aaron Gleeman, have all written or listed how Kepler will be one of the least impacted by the upcoming shift limitations. Those are the who's who of baseball analysis, especially Petriello and Sarris. The shift is not his issue, poor quality of contact is. A flat swing will do that. It means your margin for error with timing has to be near perfect as your bat spends almost no time in the center of the flight path of the pitch, often resulting in pop ups and ground balls if you are near, but not perfectly, on time.

Would you be surprised to know that Kepler's slash line in the 3-4 spots was .262/.352/.372 for a .724 OPS in 2022? And the Twins 3-4 hitters slashed .254/.333/.389 for a .722 OPS overall.

I think he could certainly gain more value as an offensive asset by no longer having to play against the shift; then you could deal him at the deadline for a potentially unexpected need, rather than dealing him now for prospects.

OK, that is definitely my favorite Stu ever. Absolutely freakin’ hysterical

Kepler isn’t the player of ‘19 because of the juiced ball. Nor is he the player with the shift. He is the no shift player but everyone wants to pay for the preban Kepler. FO is right not selling him cheap. The real Kepler will show up this Spring and he’ll be in demand. Be patient and don’t do anything stupid. In the meantime. He should start.

Love his defense but his hitting he just seems lost in making adjustments ... If he stays don't bat him 1 through 4 in the batter order , play him as a defensive replacement off the bench ... It was an amazing year in 2019 as he and other players had career years that most likely won't be duplicated ... I never like trading players but a change of scenery could help Kepler with new coaching and advice , as a twin he's lost here in his approach ... If I'm the other team I see value in Kepler as a defensive specialist ...

agreed ..1st ballot... if they just elected Scott Rolen in ..Joe Mauer is a shoe in

While I wouldn't trade Polanco, I can see them trading Kepler (but I wouldn't) though I think he will benefit with the end of the shift. Much depends on what they can/will get for Max. I like him since I am also Jewish so I hope that, if he is traded, that it's to the Yankees.

The Brewers didn't trade for an ace. The Brewers developed not one but two aces. Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick. He was the 21st ranked prospect in the Brewers system in 2017. He was the 69th ranked prospect in baseball one slot behind Fernando Romero in 2018. He was a complete nightmare in 2019 with an 8 plus ERA in the majors and an 8 plus ERA at AAA. Nobody was thinking ACE when 2020 rolled around. In 2020 he found the ACE light switch. No Trades were necessary.

A very nice breakdown on Lopez and the drop in the 2nd half I had heard about but was unsure of as to the reason. I would much rather have a pitcher needing to re-slot his FB delivery to gain back his effectiveness than trying to figure out delivery issues with his best breaking ball, or his change. It fills me with more optimism as to what Lopez might bring to the rotation. I still have a hard time projecting a 26yo...even coming off his best overall year...as jumping to #1 status simply because I believe in experience being such a factor in all pitchers, but especially for those who do achieve that front line status. I've long maintained that despite talent and stuff, there is a point where something "clicks" in certain guys where they just KNOW how to use their stuff better in certain situations. I know questions remain for most of the rotation. And I don't know that I can predict a single arm to really be that #1 guy for 2023. I mean, Gray was rushing to get ramped up and then had hamstring issues. But with a normal offseason and normal ST, he could easily be the Twins best starter. If Mahle's own personal diagnosis is correct that he just threw too much, too hard, etc, too early after the weird offseason and short ST and he really doesn't have anything wrong physically, (which a pair of MRIs say is true), he could be out best. But with the information revealed here in the OP, I can see the potential for Lopez to emerge as the Twins #1 for 2023. Maybe not approaching ACE status, but I can see the path to him being the #1.

I don't think it will be 5 and fly. Here's why: Here are some past averages from Rocco's managerial days that are above last year's MLB average of 5.2 innings per start: Joe Ryan, 2022, 5.44 Jose Berrios, 2021, 6.08 Kenta Maeda, 2020, 6.06 Jose Berrios, 2020, 5.25 Michael Pineda, 2020 5.33 (only 5 starts) Jose Berrios, 2019, 6.26 Martin Perez, 2019, 5.41 Jake Odorizzi, 2019, 5.30 Michael Pineda, 2019, 5.62 Do you know what these guys have in common? Two things: With the exception of Ryan last year, they were experienced pitchers. They didn't suck. In fact, they were usually pretty good, sometimes even excellent. Point being, when Rocco has had the horses, he's let them ride. The notion of "Rocco pulls the starter early" is recency bias, driven by a season when A) they were beset by injuries, so they were going to rookies way more than they wanted to; B) Archer never extended; C) if they were pitching veterans, they were protecting them out of necessity, knowing that another injury meant another Cole Sands start; and D) they often sucked. Sure, there were individual games when they didn't suck, and TD readers wanted Rocco to leave the guy in longer, but Rocco seemed to take the long view that C is more important than D. I generally agree. So this year, they are going into the season with Perez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda. That group checks Box No. 1, though Maeda is coming off TJS and Mahle missed the season's end. And all of them have the potential to be anywhere from pretty good to excellent, which checks Box No. 2. And there's the herd of young guys coming from behind -- Ober, Winder, et. al. -- who we seem to think fit Box No. 2, if not yet Box No. 1. (Apologies if I took the thread off-topic. If need be, I can cut and paste the comment to any number of other threads where it also fits!)

Very interesting article. Thanks Lou. Nicely done.

The Twins pitching staff on paper is MUCH stronger than it was a year ago and it's not even close. That's in both the staff and in the pen. I don't even know how anyone can even think it's a push with how much it should be improved.

Even though Lee is rated the 10th best SS prospect by MLB, he is rated the best hitting SS prospect. Lewis was mentioned as being just on the fringe of the top 10 SS prospects. Julian is #7 at 2B and rated the fastest riser from where he was in the rankings last year. Miranda was mentioned at 3B as having graduated from the top 10 3B last year. When you consider All World Carlos Correa is at SS and Polanco , a former All star SS is at 2B for the Twins, the future looks bright at the key IF positions. Kirilloff at 1B is at a relatively new position, but if his wrist heals, he should be terrific at 1B and hitting. And the Reds MVP from last year, Farmer can play SS, 2B, and 3B capably, that is one good infield. The OF is the best defensive OF in the major leagues with a platinum glove, 2 gold gloves, and Kep, who should have won a gold glove manning the OF. I really don't see any great fielding prospects ranked by MLB, but Rodriguez, Martin, Larnach and Wallner are all very promising outfielders. The Twins have no highly ranked prospects at catcher, I suggest the Twins trade with the Pirates who have 2 highly ranked catching prospects and I prefer Henry Davis for his strong arm, The Mets also have 2 top catching prospects, but I imagine Alverez is untouchable, since he is the number 1 prospect in the overall rankings. Parada may not be a strong enough defender, but he is a possibility to be traded by a team which has 2 top catching prospects. The position players all look very promising for the Twins. Now ...about those young pitching prospects for the Twins....none are ranked vey high except Raya and he is several years away at best. I'll end on a positive note with 2 words. Jhoan Duran.

The reason Duran is in the bullpen to begin with is because he couldn't stay healthy as a starter. I have no doubt that if the Twins believed that Duran could pitch 150+ innings a year he would be in the rotation, unfortunately that just isn't the case.