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    nicksaviking

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  4. Ted Schwerzler

    Ted Schwerzler

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/03/2023 in all areas

  1. Gross. Ober, Varland, SWR, Winder. All better options. A groundball pitcher with this infield defense? Why? Not to mention he lost a MPH off of his fastball last year. Top of the rotation arms or AAAA break-glass-in-case-of-emergency starters that can roost in St. Paul. That's it. Zero reason to pay these zero upside vets to take a rotation spot away from the young players except that they want to look like they're actually spending money. It's too late, the good players are all gone. Don't make the team worse trying to window dress the mistakes you made earlier this year.
    15 points
  2. The guy has accumulated over 20 WAR in 585 games. That’s .035 per game. Joe Mauer was at .030 for his career. Aaron Judge and Mike Trout are around .05 per game. Bryce Harper is around .031. Saying he a bust and he can’t put together a good full season is absurd. He’s responsible for more wins in half a season than almost everybody else is in a full one. Alex Bergman had 4.5 WAR in 2022. Rafael Devers 4.4. Luis Arraez 4.4. George Springer 4.0. Clad Guerrero 4.0. Byron Buxton 4.0. He had .5 higher WAR than Matt Chapman in 2022. 1.2 higher than Acuna, Yelich, Wander Franco. 1.5 more than Bryce Harper. Thats significant value added. It’s just a fact that if he plays a full season (the way he’s played historically), that he would be near the top of the MLB in WAR. You’re flawed perception doesn’t change that.
    8 points
  3. In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda... 2022 33 MIN AL 0 0 0.0 (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...) Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda. As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route. So yes, please, on Wacha.
    8 points
  4. I'd rather have Wacha than Bundy or Archer......
    7 points
  5. I’m optimistic, but very cautiously. Im a huge fan of his. The deal they signed is still a great deal, even with the injuries - those complaining about that will hopefully stop after seeing this years free agent market. He’ll miss some time. I no longer hold out hope in that regard. I just hope it’s not excessive and not in September/October. We’ll see.
    7 points
  6. lot of people crapping on this don't realize he was a perfectly decent pitcher last year. i mean honestly he can't make people forget that they really could use a top-of-the-rotation guy, but let's not act like the twins are flush with guys who would easily match his 3.3 bWAR from last season in under 130 innings. it takes a village; don't get mad when they fill it with townspeople
    6 points
  7. I believe in Byron Buxton. I do not believe in Byron Buxton’s health. Unfortunately, the impact of the former is controlled by the latter.
    6 points
  8. If signed, Rocco will pull him back down to earth. 5.5? That's crazy!
    6 points
  9. HASN'T. The past is an excellent predictor of the past.
    6 points
  10. So you guys were upset when the team didn't sign Eovaldi, but are absolutely out on Wacha? They are the same pitcher at this point in their careers. Eovaldi is 18 months older, had a QO offer attached, and is guaranteed $36 MM over 2 years. The contract has a vesting/player option for a 3rd year at $20MM if he pitches 300 innings combined in '23 & '24. It is also triggered if he finishes top 5 in the Cy Young voting or finishes top 7 in Cy Young voting and makes the All-Star team in '24. Plus there is limited no-trade and inning incentives that could push the contract to $63 MM over 3 years, AAV $21 MM. I wouldn't sign either of them, but if Wacha can be had for 2/$20 MM (FanGraphs/CrowdSource prediction) I would sign him.
    5 points
  11. But plenty can match the -.6 in 2021, or -.2 in 2020, or .2 in 2019, or 1.1 in 2018, or 1.5 in 2017, or -.2 in 2016.
    5 points
  12. Every year we get the, if only Buxton can stay on the field we can see some great numbers. Then he misses half the year and we point out to the few months he was healthy and get back into what if mode. At this point, you just need to slot him for 60 to 90 games, of which maybe 30 of them he will be hurting and not at max. He will carry us for a month or 2, then will struggle with staying on field. I will believe he can play a full season, and be what he does over 30 to 60 days, when he actually does it.
    4 points
  13. While I agree there's plenty of that sort of sentiment around these parts, I disagree that's what's happening here. Plenty of us are pointing out that Wacha doesn't have all that high of a chance of being a potentially useful player. Yes, he was good last year, but that was an extreme outlier in performance. Yes, he had 3.3 bWAR last year. He had 1.5 fWAR. Here's his bWAR/fWAR from 2016 to 2022: -.2/1.8 1.5/3.1 1.1/.8 .2/-.3 -.2/0 -.6/1.1 3.3/1.5 Here's his IP totals from 2016 to 2022: 138 165.2 84.1 126.2 34 124.2 127.1 He's no more "potentially useful" than 10 dudes they already have on the roster. Do they think they can get a near Petty level return for Gray if they decide to trade him and are looking at Wacha as a possible veteran replacement in the rotation in that case? I'd guess no, but would understand that. If not, you're replacing Ober with Wacha. That doesn't excite me at all and seems like a signing simply to say they made a signing. I'm not interested in that.
    4 points
  14. 109% this. No, I'm not fixing the typo.
    4 points
  15. This move makes sense if you were aggressive in the free agent/trade markets and were actively trying to win. Commit to the rebuild, or commit to winning. This middling crap is just an attempt to con fans into thinking you did something so attendance doesn’t tank and manipulate service time of guys like SWR/Varland. Just grow a spine and commit to something, for God’s sake. This is why we always suck. It is possible they still make a big splash in the trade market, so we’ll see. But, if we get to Spring Training and they’ve done nothing but Gallo, Wacha, and some other crap….they deserve every bit of criticism they get.
    4 points
  16. If Nick Paparesta keeps Buxton in CF for 130 games each of the next 2 seasons the Pohlads should give him an ownership stake in the team.
    4 points
  17. Good point. Everyone knows that humans get less injury prone as they age.
    4 points
  18. If you like, you can quickly catch up on the ground rules for this exercise in the first installment. The short version is this that we're attempting to rank Twins players and prospects through a big-picture lens in asking: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? Here in this second installment, breaking down my picks for #11 through #15, we find an interesting cross-section of rising and falling stocks. It feels like there's a lot at stake here; a couple of true breakthroughs at this level would profoundly impact the franchise's future fortunes. First, a recap of the list as it stands, from Part 1: 20. Matt Wallner, OF 19. Louie Varland, RHP 18. Sonny Gray, RHP 17. Jorge Lopez, RHP 16. Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 11 through 15 15. Ryan Jeffers, C 2022 Ranking: 10 Good major-league catchers are really hard to find. The offseason market is typically sparse; this year the Twins were happy to land a reliably average veteran in Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal that – while reasonable – could hardly be described as team-favorable. Even with Vazquez's addition, catching depth is sparse in the Twins system, which is why Jeffers remains a fairly vital if unexciting asset for the organization. Two straight sub-par offensive seasons have tempered expectations, but the defensively-acclaimed Jeffers remains heir apparent behind the plate, with the Twins surely hoping he'll have emerged as primary starter by the tail end of Vazquez's contract. 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 2022 Ranking: 12 Around this time last year, we were wondering if Larnach's fade during a promising rookie season in 2021 meant he was hitting a wall or merely enduring a speed-bump in his development. The good news is that he fueled the "speed-bump" narrative in 2022 ... at least for a while. Larnach emerged as one of the best hitters in the lineup, earning his way into the heart of the order by June, but a worsening groin/core injury tanked his performance leading up to surgery that ended his season halfway through. There's no reason to believe that particular issue will be a factor going forward, and Larnach in general stands out as a player who figures to benefit from a fresh leadership voice on the training staff. Last year's performance, when healthy, left little doubt as to his viability as a starting outfielder in the big leagues – but at the same time, he hasn't firmly established himself as such and turns 26 in February. 13. Austin Martin, SS/OF 2022 Ranking: 5 Martin's huge regression at Double-A was one of the top headlines for the Twins system in 2022. He'd emerged as arguably their top prospect – centerpiece of the Jose Berrios trade and OBP wizard extraordinaire – but his bat went silent in a follow-up at the same level where he'd spent the entire previous year. While remaining true to his trademark calling card – namely, a knack for getting on base via the BB or HBP and then wreaking havoc as an aggressive runner – Martin batted just .241 with a .316 slugging percentage in his encore at Wichita. He managed two home runs in 90 games. Meanwhile, we gained no real clarity on his defensive future, as he continued to make nearly all of his starts at shortstop, where no one expects him to play in the majors. With all that being said, Martin is still the same player he was a year ago, when he ranked #5 on this list, as well as #1 on our top prospects list and consensus top-50 status on global lists. It feels rash to drop him more than eight spots here in response to one tough season at age 23. In the wake of said tough season, Martin did put together a very encouraging showing in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .374/.454/.482 with six doubles and a homer in 21 games. Something to build upon heading into a crucial 2023 campaign. 12. Connor Prielipp, LHP 2022 Ranking: NR The Twins need to hit big on a premium arm in the draft. It's been a persistent sore spot for this front office. Yes, they've managed to develop some late-round picks like Bailey Ober, Louie Varland and Josh Winder into capable big-league starters, but in seven years, they haven't jumped on a high-end pitcher at the top of the draft and developed him into a frontline stud – and that's really what it feels like this franchise most desperately needs. Prielipp has a real chance to finally break through as that guy. Easily enough said for a player who's yet to throw a professional inning, I realize. But in naming him Minnesota's most intriguing pick in last year's draft, The Athletic notes that before blowing out his elbow in the spring of 2021, "Prielipp was a consensus top-10 draft prospect with a chance to pitch himself into the No. 1 pick conversation." He was fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery by the time Minnesota selected him 48th overall, but didn't see any official action last year. Baseball America already rates his slider as the best in the Twins system, even though he's yet to technically throw one as part of it. Obviously there's a fair amount of risk attached to Prielipp, and that's why the University of Alabama product lasted into the second round of the draft, but you won't find much more pure upside in a collegiate pitcher draft pick. The Twins really need this one to click. 11. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 2022 Ranking: 18 Earlier I mentioned that Martin's step backward was one of the top headlines in the Twins system last year. The flip side is that Woods Richardson's emergence was another of the top headlines, and – given he came over in the same trade package – it helps take some of the sting out of Martin's drop-off. Whereas Martin stumbled at Double-A after thriving there the previous year, Woods Richardson had the opposite experience. He found his footing in a second turn at Wichita, posting a 3.06 ERA over 70 innings, then pitched brilliantly after a promotion to Triple-A where he went 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in seven starts. It all culminated with a late-season MLB debut, making him the youngest pitcher to appear in the big leagues in 2022. He's very polished and it showed at every stop, but at the same time, Woods Richardson's stuff and approach don't quite scream "frontline starter." Not yet. He just turned 22 in September though, so there's plenty of room for growth. With his big 6-foot-3 frame and excellent demeanor for pitching, he's got much to work with.
    4 points
  19. Can't quarrel with your list, Ted, but with one big cautionary note on Jax. Before he can be designated a late pen go-to-arm, he must make significant strides on probably the most significant stat for any reliever - Inherited Runs Scored(IRS). His 2022 rate of 42% was a tic below Duffy's at 44%, and higher than the much-lamented Pagan at 38%. Compare these to Thielbar(14%) and Duran at 22%. Which is why this FO needs to correct their gross negligence of last offseason by signing at least two back end relievers from a fairly flush FA stockpile still remaining. As things stand now, this is still an average pen at best on a team much too dependent on heavy usage of relievers in every game. But that's another story altogether!
    4 points
  20. This team regularly changes what didn't work the year before, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the starters go longer, maybe even too long. I know that no one is happy with the front office, but the one thing they do that the last front office didn't was try new things. But on what planet is Michael Wacha the team's best pitcher? He was awful for three years running then had one outlier year. This guy looks like Dylan Bundy in 2019. If any other team believed in him, he'd have already gotten a deal like Walker, Taillon and Eovaldi got. No one has because it's clearly a smoke-and-mirrors situation. Having this guy take innings from the young players would be the dumbest thing this team has done all off season, and that's saying a lot.
    3 points
  21. Arguing over who has the best crystal ball is pointless. He has faced injury issues in the past, a fact that is reflected in the contract agreed upon. Both sides are protected. I am not sure if those critical of Buxton are suggesting he be cut, released, traded, or just publicly criticized since there really are no suggestions offered. I am sure Buxton, Rocco, FO, and most fans would love to see him healthy and productive for a full season. Pencil him in CF and the middle of the order and let it play out. History cautions the team to have a good backup plan in place, but it also shows that no one on the team has more “transcendent player” potential than Byron Buxton. Thank you Ted for sharing a bit of hope and optimism.
    3 points
  22. This is a bit intentionally misleading. Correlating Buxton's first years with his last is only to support and argument that tears down his value. Since 2019 he has posted a 137 OPS+
    3 points
  23. I mean, basically none of his injuries are precursors for the next....
    3 points
  24. I'm not sure what you expect all top prospects to become, but very few are guaranteed Hall of Famers. Buxton also already has more than double Sano's career fWAR...
    3 points
  25. I agree 100% with the last paragraph. But I don't see a need for "potential veteran pitching depth" if it isn't better than the veteran pitching depth they already have. They have 3 veterans and Ryan in the rotation. If they're not bringing in someone better than Ober (and I don't see Wacha, who has his own durability issues, as being better than Ober) then I don't get the point. Is he willing to take a minor league deal with a ST invite coming off a career best season? Cuz that's the only price that seems right to me. He's not bumping anyone else out of the rotation so it's going to be hard to sell him on coming to the Twins to be a bullpen piece coming off a career year. I simply don't see the fit here. If they're looking for a 1 inning BP piece, and I think they should be, I'd much rather see Fulmer return than hope Wacha can transition to a 1 inning pen arm. Unless they can convince Wacha to be a long man in the pen, again wouldn't expect that coming off a career year, or they're going to move Ober to a long man role. And I think that'd be mismanaging Ober at this point. I just don't see a fit for this type of player. They've got a bunch of league average dudes. They need to start getting some real impact players. Only way for that this offseason is trades.
    3 points
  26. The Twins need to add a starter to the top of the rotation and push everyone down a slot. If they can’t do that in trade then I would risk the younger pitchers in the bottom of the rotation over Wacha.
    3 points
  27. Col M

    Believe in Buxton for 2023

    I love the optimism, and Buxton is an astonishingly gifted player when he is intact and healthy! Just not convinced a new trainer can make enough of a difference. Keeping fingers crossed!
    3 points
  28. Uh, no. Where did any of us say that? I've pretty much copied/pasted my feelings about every free agent starter other than Rodon over and over again all off season. Also, they aren't even close to the same pitcher. Both look like bad investments, but Wacha has been nearly unusable for the three seasons prior to last year. At lease Eovaldi has been decent when healthy.
    3 points
  29. I'm a believer in Buck. Yes he has been hampered by bad luck & the result of his extreme efforts that he gives. I also believe this year he won't see so much bad luck & compete for MVP. Hopefully Nick Paparesta can influence the way Buxton has been managed and not try squeeze every game they could out of him. Instead focus on having him ready for post season.
    3 points
  30. Most 30-year-old pitchers don't suddenly find a career turnaround after 3 DFA worthy seasons. Especially ones who saw their velocity decrease. I think 2022 was more likely the outlier than 2019, 2020 and 2021 were.
    3 points
  31. Ted you have definitely found something to give you hope. Throughout your writing you remain so positive - thank you, even though I do not feel the same. Buxton has now been a Twin 8 years. He has averaged 73 games a season. 67 in CF. He is a superstar if he is in the field, as a DH not so much. 244/301/473 - OPS+ 108. That is a good player, not a star. Yes I would like to see him step up and turn it around in year 9, but I have to see it to believe it. I will root for him, enjoy him, but I do not want false expectations. He is in line with Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gallo, Kepler, Pagan, Lopez, Alcala, Ober, Jeffers as players we would sure like to see match our earliest expectations.
    3 points
  32. Solid starter through 2018 then steady decline. Same Twins pitching staff plan...or lack of plan.
    3 points
  33. I, for one, do not want to give up on Martin yet. He has been highly touted most of his career as someone who can be an impact player. While yes, he has not yet met those high expectations - he also is still young. Sounds a lot like Gordon who we were pretty happy to have last year.
    3 points
  34. Realistically fans of the Minnesota Twins have been awaiting a breakout from Byron Buxton for the better part of seven years. In that time he’s either flashed ability, or shown a very brief glimpse of availability. Only once, in 2020, did we come close to seeing what it looked like together and even that is debatable. For Minnesota, paying Buxton should’ve been a no-brainer. He’s among the best players in the world when healthy, and the only reason they were in position as the only to be able to give him a $100 million contract is because free agency and a $300 million contract has been thwarted by injury. Buxton spent the early portion of his Major League career being instructed to put the ball on the ground, utilize his speed, and sacrifice a power tool that was so evident during his pre-draft process. The Georgia native looked to project as a true five-tool player, and a previous Minnesota regime sought to get less of a ceiling while attempting to ensure a safer floor. By 2017, we began to see how silly that looked. Buxton racked up MVP consideration largely for his defense, winning both a Platinum and Gold Glove. He did hit 16 longballs though, and that came across a big league best 140 games. Injury struck again in 2018, but by 2019 it was clear the Twins star was an offensive threat too. In 2020 he advanced his MVP positioning while posting a career-best 125 OPS+. It’s hard to count the contribution as whole however, given that he played in just over 50% of an already truncated 60 game season. The past two seasons we have seen Buxton compile a 150 OPS+ and look the part of a guy who should rack up bombs and extra-base hits with ease. While still seeking a season of true availability to pair it with, 2022 brings promise. In the first year of a new seven-year deal, Buxton played in 92 games. That is the most he’s logged in any season since 2017, and comes with the caveat that he was injured almost from the get go. Despite needing consistent fluid drains of his knee following a slide against the Boston Red Sox, Buxton continued to produce. Although his pendulum swung a bit too far in the slugging over on-base direction, he managed pain and remained available for Rocco Baldelli’s club for much of the competitive duration. Despite the Twins feeling good about where Buxton is in his offseason program, there is some reason for caution. He underwent a knee surgery following the regular season, and will soon ramp back up to baseball activities. Given what he produced while playing with a substantial injury last season though, it’s more than clear that Minnesota stands to come up big time if he can be kept on the field. That has definitely been the mantra throughout the duration of his eight year career, but Buxton posted numbers that would extrapolate to 49 homers, five triples, and 23 doubles over the course of a full season. His 7.0 fWAR would have ranked 6th in baseball, and behind only American League MVP winner Aaron Judge among hitters. There is no one more focused on keeping Buxton on the field this season than himself, and the Twins are certainly attempting to put a new foot forward with Nick Paparesta leading the training staff. For the vast majority of Minnesota’s roster, the production from those carried over will largely impact how much noise this club makes. We shouldn’t be questioning how good Buxton is anymore, he’s otherworldly. The only question is if he can remain out there, and fighting through what he did a season ago and racking up 92 games, should bring some promise for something we haven’t seen in years.
    3 points
  35. Austin might not even be the 13th best prospect. I have a hard time with Jeffers being this high on the list also, but I get it. Prielipp and SWR are very intriguing in so many ways. Should be a lot of fun to watch.
    3 points
  36. I don't like giving up on Duensing this soon.
    3 points
  37. With snow falling precipitously, and the hangover of the holiday season settling in, it’s impossible not to wishfully envision the return of Major League Baseball this spring. But it will be 52 days until the Minnesota Twins take the field against the Tampa Bay Rays for their first spring training match-up of the year. In the meantime, I’m left to reflect on a disappointing season for our ball club and pose to myself the annual question: “why can’t I quit the Minnesota Twins?” Typically, this question is rhetorical. Yet, with the few offseason moves having already either been celebrated or panned, I thought I’d spend time in the doldrums of winter answering this question. In 2005, the Minnesota Twins and third-year skipper, Ron Gardenhire, entered the season off a first-place finish in the AL Central the year before. While the club would finish above .500, they wouldn’t repeat as AL Central champions, falling to third in the division. This disappointing finish mattered less to me than a weeknight game in late August. On Tuesday, August 23, 2005, the Minnesota Twins entered play against the division-leading Chicago White Sox 9.5 games back. Though dim, hope remained of a playoff push, and with Johan Santana patrolling the mound, 33,572 ventured to the Metrodome to cheer on the Minnesota Twins. Just as Santana went to battle against the White Sox sluggers, my family and I undertook our own battle: a fraught relationship with time management. My family and I had tickets to this game, but with a two-and-a-half-hour drive from Wisconsin, a delayed start from our home, and Twin Cities traffic, we wouldn’t arrive until the game’s pivotal moment. I sulked in the car, knowing we would miss most of the game. Undeterred, however, my Mom and Dad hustled me through the billowing winds of the Metrodome’s entrance. We darted through the concourse, until the field came into view. The bottom of the eighth inning was just underway – did I mention we have a tenuous relationship with time management? – and the “thwack” of the bat snapped me out of my disappointment. Jacque Jones’ home run soared over the center field wall and ended Freddy Garcia’s no-hit bid. Joe Nathan would then enter in the ninth inning to clinch the Twins’ 1-0 victory. I don’t remember whether I had time to enjoy a Kramarczuk's brat that night– I suspect not – but I do know I wouldn’t trade this early Twins memory for anything (well, maybe for Zac Gallen). Baseball is unpredictable. A team can lose 88 games, finish in last place, and the following season, parade a World Series trophy down I-35. Similarly, without a clock to dictate the game’s finish, a family can arrive long after the first pitch is thrown, but still witness the game’s decisive swing. All that’s promised is that in 89 days, each team will begin with the same record; the unpredictable unfolding 162 times over. That’s why I can’t quit the Minnesota Twins.
    2 points
  38. The Twins are projected for 81 wins this coming season, which is fairly generous for a team coming off a 78-84 season that is losing its MVP in Carlos Correa. The front office is on the hot seat, having failed to win a playoff game in their six year tenure after inheriting a young, cheap and talented roster prior to 2017. That front office believes in its process to the point it apparently feels comfortable running back pretty much the same guys and hoping that fewer injuries vaults them up the standings. A recent Gleeman and the Geek mailbag episode featured a discussion of whether the Twins process lined up with its results. Gleeman and our fearless leader eventually came to the conclusion that the front office’s process was a little ahead of the results, but not by as much as said front office would hope. I am about to argue the opposite. The plan going into the 2017 season was to develop the emerging young players (Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Sanó) into cheap, controllable stars, avoid long-term commitments unless they came at a steep discount, develop home-grown pitching, try to find unlockable pitchers off the scrap heap using newfound analytics and tech, and become a sustainable winner on a budget, much like Cleveland. But is the front office sticking to that? It certainly is an improvement. Part of the problem with the Terry Ryan regime was that the team never sold high on any of its assets, letting Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel and the like play out their years of team control or let them lose all their trade value through injury or under-performance and get flipped for a bag of balls. This kept the farm system gutted and resulted in the kind of painful rebuild this new regime is now trying to avoid. Will they avoid it? Let’s examine their process and match it up to reality. They definitely have kept the books clean, with only Byron Buxton’s team-friendly deal carrying any real weight. Many Twins fans blamed Joe Mauer’s contract extension as the reason the team fell out of contention in the early 2010’s, but any logical person knows that the previous core got old and there was no one to replace them. The Twins also didn’t get any value out of that core before they got old or ineffective. That’s how Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Oakland have contention windows open longer than a team like the Royals, who rode with its stars from its World Series runs, gave some of them extensions and watched it all fall apart. They did take advantage of the two playoff runs they got, but that’s an awfully short time to be relevant, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. As far as developing their own pitching, the Twins haven’t shown much. While Cleveland and Tampa Bay churn out a new four WAR pitcher every year, all we have to show for ourselves is Bailey Ober and the reliever versions of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. Matt Canterino and Blayne Enlow look like sure relievers at this point, Jordan Balazovic is a mess, and Louie Varland has a ceiling of a third starter. Cade Povich looked good, but was traded for Jorge López. Ditto Steven Hajjar, who was included in the Tyler Mahle trade. Josh Winder gets lit up on every fastball he throws, so all hopes land on Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya at this point, neither of whom are close to the majors. After six years, one would expect a little more from a front office that claimed to specialize in this area. They have added pitching talent via trade, and it looks like that will need to continue. The way the Twins’ roster currently sits is intriguing in its lack of second and third year arbitration players. That sets up a lot of value to be gained if some of those players turn into stars, like Luis Arraez for instance. He’s now an All-Star utility player who just won a batting championship. We know his flaws here locally: his knees wear down and he doesn’t offer much at third and second base defensively. But for a team looking for that difference-maker in the playoffs, Arraez looks plenty enticing, which I am sure is why the Twins are listening to offers on him currently. Doing so has the potential to bring back multiple Arraez’s who are potentially cheaper. Winning that kind of trade is exactly the kind of process Falvey and Levine should value if they want a Cleveland style contention window, but they haven’t done much of that, either. So far, the team has traded Jose Berrios for two likely big league contributors, (how much they contribute is very much in question) traded the last year of Taylor Rogers for three years of a talented starting pitcher in Chris Paddack, and traded a young pitcher, Brusdar Graterol, who was destined for relief work for four years of Kenta Maeda. All of those trades netted the team positive value, and none of them made the team worse in the immediate future considering how bad Rogers and Berrios have been. The tough pill to swallow is that to truly compete at a Cleveland-Tampa level, young stars will have to be traded near the peak of their career, not just when they get expensive in arbitration. Look at the Mike Clevinger trade from 2020. In exchange for two and a half years of Clevinger, who to that point was coming off of three years with a combined 152 ERA+, Cleveland received Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Cal Quantrill and Joey Cantillo. Two of those guys, Naylor and Quantrill, are established starters on a division winning team. Shortstop Arias and starting pitcher Cantillo are rookies who both figure to play big roles in their next one to two seasons with Arias ranking number 57 on Baseball-Prospectus’ mid-season rankings. Hedges was their catcher this past year, and Miller their top pinch hitter. Those last two are disappointments for Cleveland, but the trade was a massive success even without their inclusion. Clevinger got hurt immediately once he became a Padre, sat out 2021 and was ineffective in 2022. The trades of Berrios, Graterol and Rogers were a net positive, but unless Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson significantly outperform expectations, they didn’t do much to stack the roster for the future. Getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez for Mitch Garver was a reasonable play, but trading him after 2019, knowing he wasn’t likely to age well and that his defense was just okay, could have set the team up at multiple positions. It just doesn’t seem like that’s part of the Falvine process. Which is unfortunate because the front office has to make unpopular decisions if it wants to compete against teams that can spend more and absorb bad contracts. Of course the Twins could certainly raise payroll, but they have shown that they won’t, and even if they did, luring free agents to Minnesota has proven to be a tough sell. They need to overpay, but they have shown they will not look stupid by giving a player “too much money.” Brandon Nimmo, for instance, has never been a 162M player, but the Mets wanted him so they paid him 30-40% more than was projected. If Nimmo continues being who he is, a three WAR player without power who can stick in center field for a few years, the contract won’t age well. But the Mets don’t care, and if the Twins front office wants to toe the line between the Cleveland-Tampa model and the Phillies-Padres one, they will have to show a free agent they don’t care either. Once in a while, at least. They could also follow the Atlanta Braves model and sign all their emerging stars to team-friendly extensions. These contracts can look bad, as well- just ask the Mariners about Evan White, or the Cardinals about Paul DeJong. The pay-off is enormous though, as you can keep your roster flush with stars without having to trade your next star for it. The Twins are in a position to make some of those types of deals, with Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Jose Miranda potentially big parts of the team’s future. Some of that crop has injury issues, which is bad, but also depreciates the value of any extension that player might sign. You might be able to get three years of Kirilloff’s or Ober’s free agency for 30M each. Duran might be the next reliever to secure a 100M contract, but if he agreed to a buyout of his arbitration years plus two more for a total of 40M, that could pay off handsomely and he might accept it, given his history of arm injuries in the minors. All three routes, early trades, overpaying free agents and extending pre-arbitration guys, require a little luck, but that’s why you have a sophisticated and robust scouting and analytic presence. You have to trust your guys and take some risks, and right now the Twins are stuck in limbo, afraid to lose prospects who may blossom elsewhere, to overpay for free agents, or to hand out extensions to players who may end up chronically injured or bad. The sad truth is that avoiding long-term commitments and getting value out of scrap heap pitchers isn’t much of a process, especially when the pitching pipeline is bare. They won’t overpay like the Padres, Phillies or Mariners, they won’t deal guys at the peak of their value like Cleveland and Tampa, and they don’t extend hardly any of them early either, like the Braves.They just wait for their prospects and hope to get lucky with a Josh Donaldson or Correa. They will describe this non-action as being opportunistic. The team has assembled a good amount of talent, but without the intentionality of those other teams, there is less cohesion; the team just grabs what talent it can and crams it all together. That isn’t so much to say that Joey Gallo is a bad fit, as it is to say the front office never gets their first, second or third choice in free agency or in trades. The Twins needed a frontline pitcher at the deadline and it seemed like they got one in Tyler Mahle. Except Mahle was hurt. He and the Twins hoped it wouldn’t be a problem, but it was. If he hadn't just come back from shoulder problems, the Twins would have had to give up more than the three good prospects they did give up, such as someone the national media actually knew about or who played on the big league roster. Their likely first choice, Mahle’s teammate with the Reds, Luis Castillo, ended up going to the Mariners for a boatload of prospects that surely gave the Twins and Yankees a feeling of relief. But the Mariners wanted an ace for their return to the playoffs, he was the missing piece that team needed, and that team ended up beating a formidable Blue Jays team on the road in the wild-card round, and playing the Astros tougher than any other team, as it turned out. Even before signing Castillo to an extension, they didn’t regret the trade. It reminds me of a line from King of the Hills’s Dale Gribble, trying to goad his friend Hank into mooning a hotel lobby from a glass elevator:: Noelvi Marte may end up being a star, but everyone in Seattle remembers Castillo’s 7.1 shutout innings in game one. Shopping for discounts leads to getting players on the downside of their careers, players who are trouble in the clubhouse, or players with injury questions. With Josh Donaldson, the Twins got all three! It’s hard to establish an identity when your additions to the roster are hurt, playing badly but need to play based on what you gave up for them, and are getting in insular beefs with Gerrit Cole. I’m sure the Twins do target players they want, but when they do, they either aren’t dreaming very big, or they aren’t giving big enough offers. Other teams may even use the Twins lack of free agent appeal against them in trade discussions, and ask more knowing that they represent the only way for the Twins to improve from outside their organization. The Correa pursuit showed both the Twins desperation, as 10/285M was an enormous offer for the team historically, and the issue I am referring to, that they couldn’t add that one extra year that may have added 25-30% to the odds of Correa being swayed to stay in Minnesota. Of course, even with all the inaction, the front office has made some unexpected and creative trades, such as unloading Donaldson’s contract to free up money to target Trevor Story last year. Story didn’t want to play in Minnesota, or at least he didn’t for the offer they gave him, and the front office was fortunate that Scott Boras called with his Correa proposition. Being nimble is a nice benefit of the payroll flexibility the team enjoys, but it doesn’t move the needle of turning this team into a real contender. Here’s how I would say the team has performed using the processes they were brought in to execute: Not taking on long-term deals: A+ Finding scrap heap pitchers and unlocking their potential: D- Develop position players into major league contributors: C Develop home-grown pitching: D- Here’s how they performed using other, successful, processes: Overpaying for free agents to add talent without dipping into farm system: F Extending emerging stars before they break out: D Trading players with years of team control who are playing at a high level to replenish the farm system and/or augment the major league roster: C This is why injuries can’t be blamed for the lack of recent success. There is a problem with the process. One, their pitching expertise has proven dubious. Two, their process model doesn’t include the boldness exhibited by teams they are trying to emulate. The scrap heap pitchers they are trying to unlock are waiver claims, not major league bounce back candidates. The pitchers they target in trades are of the scratch n’ dent variety, not sure things. Imagine if the team had struggled getting its high position player draft picks to the majors and there was no Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, or Buxton to even worry about projecting for the 2023 roster. That’s the only positive thing keeping this team from becoming Detroit or Kansas City. My advice would be to get Chris Sale for a prospect and take on his entire salary, flip Sonny Gray and Max Kepler to San Diego, where they are short a starter and a corner outfielder and try to pry Ha-Seong Kim from them. But hey, that’s just my process.
    2 points
  39. Two things: 1. Altering his style saps his value 2. His style didn't lead to the injury that had him coming up lame from a weird slide.
    2 points
  40. I'm rooting for Theilbar to end up with at least 500-600 games pitched when he retires. that's 4-5 more seasons of 60-70 appearances per season.
    2 points
  41. Just resist that crazy urge & say no.
    2 points
  42. Thielbar is a fun pitcher to watch with his slow curve and surprising fastball. Hopefully he can keep going for several more years and cash in on his hard work.
    2 points
  43. I understand that Kepler & Gallo bring many of the same things to the value table making moving him enticing. However, one of those things each brings to the table is actually showing up at the table. Each of them has played more games the last two years than Larnach & Kirlloff combined. The prospect of trading Kepler and having to run guys like Gordon, Garlick or Contreras out to the corner outfield spots is not appealing. Unless that goal is something other than winning baseball games.
    2 points
  44. I became a Celestino believer after his 2019 season, mostly at A+, IIRC. I was really looking forward to seeing what he would do at AA in 2020 before the milb season was canceled. Frankly, I was disappointed when injuries decimated the Twins so much he had to be called up in 2021, because he was pushed and just wasn't ready. But he looked GOOD at AAA. I was also very disappointed when the Twins didn't add a quality RH OF for 2022 and Celestino was pushed yet again to the ML level. I just thought they did him a great disservice. And after a hot start with a completely unsustainable BABIP, it became obvious he wasn't prepared yet. I have no doubt he could be an excellent reserve OF who can do a few different things offensively and be a fine glove. Is he starting caliber for the Twins, or someone else? Hmmm...maybe. He's got a nice mix of solid bat with pop and speed and potentially great defense, but he's basically been pushed to the ML level before he was ready. For his sake...and the Twins especially...it's why I've pushed so hard for a solid veteran RH OF to be added last year, and again this season. I have no doubt Celestino has learned a lot with the Twins, but he and the organization would be much better off adding that veteran bat to allow him to work on his bat and overall game at St Paul to begin 2023, and be much more ready the next time his name is called. To me, IMO, it's so obvious that I keep screaming on my soapbox as to what the smart move is. And it's damn frustrating the FO doesn't see it.
    2 points
  45. 1 Vikings, 1 Wolves, 1 Wild, 2 Twins. Although I do like someone's earlier idea for a three peat for the Vikings to shut up the sanctimonious Packers fans.
    2 points
  46. Give them Kepler, and throw in Duensing if needed.
    2 points
  47. 2 for my beloved Twins. 2 for the Vikings because the fans deserve more than one (or none). 1 for the Wild, and I don't really follow hockey, but it's minnesota hockey, so... Wolves? NBA? Zzzzźzzzzz. Soccer? ??????
    2 points
  48. Houston has drafted heavily on the pitching prospect in the international draft and has done very well. Seems like especially in the past the Twins have focused on big bats which seems a waste not seeking high end pitching.
    2 points
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