Leaderboard

Maybe he got an ulcer after finally looking at the rest of the Giants roster?

Let’s pray he is ok and this not some serious medical issue. He’s got a beautiful young family.

Offer him $70.2M over two years, with an opt-out!

Please don’t take him back if the giants bail. Please.

Greinke? Did you watch him pitch this past season? He is basically Dylan Bundy at this point in his career. Maybe worse.

I am not sure it is really fair or appropriate to speculate on another human being's health condition. This could be literally anything, from non-serious to life threatening. We will know when we are allowed to know what can be disclosed. The only thing that is fair to surmise is that it is significant enough to warrant cancelling the press conference and pause any contract signing while it is sorted out medically. We need to show some class, even with the "Dior comment" and the fact that he chose to sign a much better contract with another team, which 99.999999% of us would have done in the same circumstances.

I wonder if Dior has a return policy. Couldn't resist, but in all seriousness, not going to speculate. It's very intriguing, and just going to watch it play out.

Based on what metric? Those are their career numbers. Not seeing a single one that suggests Adrianza wasn't "much worse than Correa." There's the top 25 shortstops, with at least 250 PAs, in baseball last year by wRC+. Ehire's career best year was 2019 with the Twins when he had a 102 wRC+ in 84 games. He was at 95 wRC+ in 109 games in 2021. Never topped 90 in any other season. Not wanting to pay Correa $35 million a year, or even 25 a year, is a reasonable take. But suggesting he's not night and day better than Ehire Adrianza is pretty far fetched.

Rumors that Falvey increased his offer upon hearing this news are false.

This is fascinating! Also, I bet he's still a Giant in a week. But, good entertainment!

Swanson hasn't signed. Because he hasn't done his physical. There's a difference between just getting general medical reports and doing their physical before signing their deal. It can take this long to get the physical done because Correa was busy with his life and this was the first time he could get to San Fran to have the team doctors check him out. Or maybe the lead doctor was on vacation and just got back to town. PA has nothing to get involved with. His deal, like every other one in every major sport, is based on passing a physical. He apparently might not have passed his. But this is all standard stuff. The announcement of an agreement (even in trades) is not the same as the player actually signing their deal. The Twins just signed Joey Gallo today even though we all knew they'd agreed to terms last week. He just got here to take his physical.

Why would this cause them to have buyer's remorse on Gallo? They were supposed to expect Correa to fail a physical so they can get back in on Correa now that he'll be cheaper since he couldn't pass the physical? If the Giants don't sign him at the agreed to deal they're either completely out on him, in which case the Twins should likely be, too, or they'll be in on him for much cheaper, in which case the 1 year deal for Gallo really shouldn't have anything to do with agreeing to pay Correa on a cheaper, long-term deal.

I don't know that I am convinced this is a deal breaker for SF. They might want to restructure with option years or something hard to say but I think at the end of the day this gets done. He was fine last year and he was never making it the full 13 years they gave him anyway. Not aware of his ankle being an issue more his back. We will see but I can't see SF backing out now.

I agreed with the gist of your comments until you mentioned preferring Terry Ryan back. Terry Ryan Part II was an unmitigated disaster. SO too have Falvey and Levine been for over 2 years. They still have a chance to redeem themselves before spring training. Do I have confidence in them? Largely no but partially yes since they did sign, Cruz, Schoop and C.J. Cron for the 2019 season. Since then, they’ve essentially torn down that 101 team to 2 consecutive seasons of losing records. So, my confidence in them is low but I’m open to changing my mind if they make a brilliant series of trades. Think of the MOs in Twins history: 1) Calvin Griffith took a wrecking ball to the franchise after the advent of free agency. He let a ton of glittering talent walk away in one of, if not, the most painful periods in Twins history. 2) Terry Ryan put together good team with Koskie, Mientkiewicz, etc. but refused to supplement it for playoff success. He also released David Ortiz after a 20 HR season while Ortiz was battling and affected by a bad knee. Worst decision in Twins history next to Calvin trading Rod Carew due to money. 3) Andy McPhail - a genius and responsible for the 2 WS titles. 4) Bill Smith - total and complete disaster 5) Terry Ryan Part II - Disaster filled with lousy trades and apparently not even spending the money he was authorized to. His stock line was always along the lines of "we think we’re all set there or we’re fine" when they clearly weren’t. 6) Falvey and Levine - Poor. Grade of D or D+ for their body of work so far.

I hope that's not true, because we still owe SF a good dose of shenanigans after the whole Sam Dyson debacle.

San Fran learned upon the results of the physical that Correa is human. The degenerative condition makes it unlikely that he would be able to perform over the 13 year duration of the contract.

I personally expect him to do better than last year, if he is given a real shot. If you look at his history at every level of minors, he would take a long time to adjust to the league, but when he did he kept showing why he was regarded as a top prospect. Each time he moved up he would struggle, and people would say, yup he is a bust. Then the next year he would be back on path. Not only did he miss time for COVID, he missed time because he had other medical issues, that he reports he now can actually put on muscle, something he was having issues with. As long as the team does not bury him on depth chart, I expect him to be better than last year.

Fangraphs had a blog today about rookies and their exit velocities. The short version is that rookies with 300+ balls in play give us a really good look at what type of hitter they will be for their careers (unless you're Vlad Jr). Rookies with that many batted ball data points generally don't raise their exit velocities, or hard hit rates, significantly in future years, and their wRC+ is pretty closely tied to their exit velocities and hard-hit rates. Basically the harder you hit the ball the better hitter you'll be (shouldn't be too surprising of an idea). The above chart shows a player's exit velocities and how it correlates to wRC+ (sample size of 620 players with 400 batted balls in play). Middle row is the average wRC+ for a player with that average exit velo (top row), and the bottom row is the % of hitters with that exit velo who were at or above league average as a hitter (wRC+ 100 or better). The young Twins players we're all hoping become the new core have the following average exit velos: Jose Miranda- 89.3 (354 batted balls), 42.4 hard hit% Trevor Larnach- 90.0 (263 batted balls over the last 2 years), 42.2 hard hit% Nick Gordon- 90.8 (455 batted balls over the last 2 years), 45.7 hard hit% (I may have to change my guess on what kind of player he can be) Alex Kirilloff- 90.3 (274 batted balls over the last 2 years), 44.5 hard hit% (super encouraging to me knowing he was doing that with a bum wrist) Ryan Jeffers- 89.0 (346 batted balls over the last 3 years), 43.1 hard hit% Gilberto Celestino- 87.3 (281 batted balls over the last 2 years), 34.3 hard hit% Wallner, Lewis, and Contreras all have fewer than 40 batted balls so I didn't include their numbers. Another interesting piece of data from that article was how unique Arraez is. He doesn't hit the ball super hard, but he also rarely hits the ball super soft. He's able to be as good as he is with as low an average exit velo as he has (88.3, 28.6 hard hit%) because he's always in at least medium contact range, and rarely in the low range. I found that fascinating as well. What do you guys think? Does this encourage your view of the future core? Discourage you? Don't care cuz it's all that nonsense, "new school" analytics crap? I found it interesting. And that chart certainly looks like it's awfully clear that hitting the ball hard is a major plus.

Martin wasn’t even the starting SS on his college team. No scout says he has a chance to play short in the bigs. Why our FO continues to play him there is another of the many things I don’t understand.

I wish Carlos Correa and the SFG all the best. Really.

My read is that this reaching the media is significant. Why damage the incoming star with this report/leak if it could be simply overcome? You can boo-hoo delaying a press conference/announcement for all kinds of reasons other than this. SF may be laying the ground work to pull out.

I highly doubt any conspiracy theories. First, I'm sure this was a very thorough examination. If a team is about to pay a player $350M I would expect nothing less. Second, if there's something significant that has arisen I'm sure everything is well documented. And I would expect that Boras has a physician on retainer to confirm any issue that may arise as the result of a physical. Everything on all sides will be completely above board. Nobody in this situation will be able to get away with any shenanigans.

Any sort of degenerative disorder that would lead them to worry that his career will be nowhere as long as they'd expected.

I doubt anyone would want to pick up that $11M contract based on his recent productivity.

I'd sure like to see him contrasting for some team other than the Twins!

Go ahead, give me your hokey analytics about "Joey Gallo only hits .200," "There are now 5 lefty corner outfielders on this team," and "Joey Gallo has the highest K rate of all time." Well guess what nerds, I care about the stallion in the Italian, not what his "box score" may look like. Jokes aside, although not a world-moving acquisition, I think that it makes some sense, though it broke at an unfortunate time--two days after Correa signed with San Francisco and one day after Carlos Rodón signed with New York. Certainly, if the Twins' biggest signing this offseason is Joey Gallo, fans have reason to be upset. I do follow the offseason move-to-move and react to each move, but I am not one to put the label OFFSEASON FAILED on a team until the season begins and the Opening Day roster is finalized. First, though, let's cover the negatives. Gallo had a horrendous season last year, with a slash line of .160/.280/.357. If he performs like that again in 2023, he will likely be out of the league. He strikes out way too much and has a laughably low batting average, and that can only be expected to continue without an approach change. Players' bat-to-ball skills do not improve with age, and Gallo will enter 2023 as a 29-year-old. Furthermore, Gallo enters a crowded space of left-handed corner outfielders alongside Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Matt Wallner. Of all the player types the Twins could have pursued, they got a guy who plays at their arguably deepest position. With those strikes against him, why don't I mind the signing? There are a few reasons: The corner depth is hypothetical Yes, there is a glut of corner outfield depth on this roster, and they are all lefties (with the exception of Gilberto Celestino, who is a corner guy in name only, given his poor stick). However, let's go through those options. Even before the Gallo signing, Kepler was going to be moved. Even if he didn't already have one foot out the door, it's debatable that Kepler would be better than Gallo. Both have high floors, given their defensive ability, but Kepler, outside of 2019, has not shown the chops to be anything better than a league average hitter. Gallo, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit at an all-star level as recently as 2021. After Kepler, the top two guys are Kirilloff and Larnach, neither of which have proven much of anything between 2021 and 2022. Both have shown flashes of potential to be high-level hitters, and I still believe in them, but both have also been bogged down by significant injuries. Gordon was on the shortlist to be DFAed during the 2022 season prior to his development as a top hitter in the depleted Twins lineup in 2022, but his performance was bolstered by a high BAPIP and he is more suited as a utility player than an everyday left fielder or the strong side of a platoon. Wallner impressed last season at both AA and AAA and had a solid run after his late season callup, but that's all the major league experience that he has. Between the four of them, they have 1,584 MLB plate appearances combined, the equivalent of about three seasons as an everyday player. If the Twins started the season without Kepler or another corner outfield acquisition, they would start with Kirilloff in left and Larnach in right, and if either of them got injured, which is likely given their history, Gordon would be pushed into an everyday role, and Wallner would probably be up as a fourth outfielder. I think that they can all ball, but that's a thin group to enter the season with. I do believe that there is another righty bat coming the Twins way (Jurickson Profar is the guy I want to see now), and I can be convinced that it's not the end of the world for either Larnach or Kirilloff to start the season in AAA, given that neither is a sure thing. Joey Gallo can reasonably become Joey Gallo again In terms of buy-low hitters, Gallo probably has the highest ceiling outside of Cody Bellinger and his 17.5MM contract with a 12MM mutant option for 2024. When Gallo is playing at the form he's capable of, he can get on-base 35% of the time despite his astronomical strikeout rate and low batting average because of his astronomical walk rate (13% for his career). He can bop 30+ homers, with two 40 home run seasons to his name. He can play Gold Glove defense in right field. Obviously, there's a lot of ifs in this conversation, but it's better to take a shot at a guy like Gallo than to fill a spot with a low-ceiling Trey Mancini, AJ Pollack, or Adam Frazier type of player for the same money. If you're going to give out a one-year contract to a veteran, give it to someone who is one year removed from an All Star season and is still under 30. If the Twins and Gallo are fortunate and he makes good on his prove-it deal, he will likely be up for a big payday prior to the 2024 season. The Twins would love to watch him go. It would mean that he turned in a good year for the team, helping them contend for an AL Central title. However, there is an added bonus that only schmucks like me care about. Because he performed poorly in his final arbitration year (and was traded in-season), he did not receive a qualifying offer and is eligible for one in 2024. If he puts up a Gallo-esque season with a 125 OPS+, 35 homers, and great right field defense, he would likely decline the offer, giving the Twins an extra draft pick for 2024. I for one would like to see that happen. Positional flexibility Gallo is a great right fielder, due to his solid range and great arm. He also has experience at all three outfield positions, first base, and third base. I don't see Gallo ever returning to the hot corner. gallo.mp4 However, we all know that the Twins love themselves some position flexibility. The only alignment that would make sense to put Gallo at first base would be three of Byron Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino being in the game alongside Gallo, as they would likely prefer Kirilloff and Wallner at first over him. Still, the option is there. More importantly is his ability to fill in in centerfield. He has not played there much since 2019, partially due to the personnel of the teams he was on. He didn't look bad in his work in center, though it has been 4 years since he had significant time out there. That being said, he would provide an extra layer of security for centerfield, which is important given Buxton's injury history. Is he a long-term replacement candidate if Buxton misses extended time with injury? Probably not, but I would bet that he will end up playing more centerfield this year than Max Kepler, another top defensive right fielder with the ability to play center, did last year (9 innings across 3 games). I wrote about the importance of having a third centerfielder and keeping Celestino down in AAA for the sake of the team and the player a couple weeks ago. Gallo fits the bill there. It's only 11 million for one year The cat was out of the bag by the time Gallo signed: the Twins do not plan on devoting 25MM+ to any one player this offseason. With 50MM to spend to reach last year's payroll, it's not a terrible use of 11MM. If he hits .160 through May and Wallner is killing it at AAA, I don't think the Twins will sweat the lost pay. He can easily be cut at that level. All of this is incumbent on him hitting at least .200, but that's a given.

This is REALLY strange, but I honestly can't see this blowing the deal with SF. They'll end up getting it done. He won't be coming back to the Twins. Interesting situation though. I wonder what the medicals showed, because other than getting drilled on the hand, he was fine all season here.

Why? Sounds like buyer’s remorse, and they’re blaming the physical. What could possibly pop up on his medical record that isn’t covered by insurance?

It should. Who wouldn't want Correa at a $65M discount?

I wonder if there is any chance they give Martin a shot after a great fall league. I am not advocating, just wondering. I could see Gordon holding down that spot until Lewis is back.

Yes, thus the difference between baseball now vs. baseball 20-30 years ago. Hitting the ball for extra bases is now much more sought after than is putting it in play or piling up numbers of hits. This results in more strikeouts, more walks, less fielding plays that need to be made, less action on the bases(stealing, bunting, moving runners, etc) and generally makes for a much more boring brand of baseball IMO.

Dumpster diving. Zzzzzzzzz…

Another unapologetic effort to sell the Caretaker plan. It's like being asked over for drinks and finding yourself at an Amway recruiting session. Nice tease though. I thought I might learn something.

I get the study, but as you point out Arraez is an outlier, and shows bit of the flaw in the exit velo versus overall output. A guy like Arraez may not crush the ball, but he generally hits line drives, which in my opinion, is better metric as to what kind of a hitter they will be. If a hitter can hit line drives, one it will generally be hard enough to get hits. Now, the harder you hit them the more likely they will be for extra bases, which is where the wRC really measures success. The main issue I have, is guys like Sano and Gallo have high hard hit rates, but also strike out at crazy high rates as well. I do not care about strike outs in certain situations, as there is no difference in a K when no one is on base versus a weak fly or ground out. However, there are times where strike outs are just killers.

I’m not really convinced that this moves the needle? I get that we all want them to Do More, but sometimes there just aren’t things that make sense to do. The Twins will likely head into 2023 counting on internal improvement and health to improve their performance, and we’re gonna have to get used to that.

Your Gallo statement is just not flying with me, but otherwise I enjoyed this essay even though I don't see enough to save the season.

I could live with any or all of the above. My only nay in the entire article is suggesting signing Gallo and moving Kepler is a net gain. If I am proven wrong I will take my crow medium rare, but I have serious doubts about that one. Otherwise, I would like to see us bring those guys here; would be nice additions.

I agree that we need more bullpen help. Adames would look good in the Twins uniform also. Odds of that happening anyone?

I'll add in learn to be a good bunter.

If those predications are accurate, I'll be eating crow along with what seems to be most of the readers on this site! I hope I'll need a bunch of salt!

I may mostly be in doom-and-gloom mode this year, but I think Gordon could be up for another solid year at the plate. He flashed a little power and perhaps he could step his game up a little more. I appreciate his durability.

Encore? Play SS at an adequate level and be the strong side of the platoon with Farmer. Is it feasible? Maybe. Assessments about his play at shortstop were made when he was dealing with a string of health issues that left him weak in the plate and the field.

Preferably not commit so many horrible base running blunders and stop admiring his hits and hustle out of the box would be great start.

After a lot or reading, listening, and contemplating, I have somewhat changed my position on Gallo. To be clear, I wouldn't have made this move, regardless if the Twins move/moved Kepler or not. I mean, we're looking for both to rebound in some fashion in 2023 right? Kepler has LOST all power for whatever reason. But at least he doesn't strike out at the highest pace in ML history...or recent history...and if he finds his power again...wherever he lost it...he might be the better all around player. But I can see the Twins playing the "change of scenery" card for both of them; move Kepler for something and bank on Gallo returning to previous form. I like that Gallo is a find defender who can play all 3 OF spots and some 1B. I like that he's still a dangerous power threat. So again, I've somewhat changed my stance on this move. Time for that aforementioned change of scenery. BUT, I WOULD HAVE brought in the best RH bat I liked and trusted in Larnach and Wallner (and Gordon) along with him and not made this move. But then again, considering the CRAZY injury situation last season, OK, keeping a LH veteran is not such a bad idea. I still don't think I would have done this deal.

I think you can depend on Gordon for a mid 700 OPS. He has been right around those numbers most of his career and as he adjusted a tick better at times. He is a solid defender at all outfield positions and a plus defender in left field. Probably plus at 2nd base as well but he doesn't get much time there. I was ready to trade him going in to last year but once truly healthy he had a really good year. Hoping for more of the same as he is an important part of this team now.

Thankfully there is enough room on the internet to highlight a positive development for the Twins! Thank you - Gordon seems to be disproportionately around when good things happened for the Twins last year. He is fun to watch play ball and his recent trajectory as a ‘gamer’ is compelling as his role solidifies or even expands. Easy guy to root for considering his pedigree and the adversity he ultimately needed to endure to arrive. Much respect for Go-Go-Gordon!

This is a moronic waste of $11m that should have been spent to improve the team.