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Must take exception to your comment that Jeffers is a strong defender. Yes, he has a reputation for framing, which hopefully goes away in the next year or two with some type of robo ump or challenge system. The catcher I have seen behind the plate is bad at blocking balls and terrible at throwing out anybody. Yes, the pitchers often are as much to blame about steals, but his record last year was bad. To answer your question, catching is the biggest problem the Twins have, HUGE! They need a new starter, who preferably swings from the left side. Someone who will play about 90 games a year with Jeffers at 70, MAX. They also need a third guy. Could be someone like Leon who is at St. Paul on a minor league deal. Ideally, this is an older vet who is fantastic working with the young pitchers who are one step away. And finally, they need a third guy. Some guy at AA who is a solid prospect and could/should be ready by 2024.

ROY candidates typically come from having the opportunity to play. If SWR or Varland are in the rotation coming out of camp it would be somewhat surprising. Wallner is probably lower on the depth chart than we think. The other two are not realistic at this point (Lewis with his injury). Injuries or an organizational direction change will be needed for the Twins to have a ROY candidate...

IMHO, the Twins would be better off sticking with what they have. Why go out and get an oft injured pitcher that up to this point in his career hasn't shown much more than #3 starter quality? Just taking innings away from the youngsters that may or may not prove to be just as good, if not better, for a fraction of the cost.

Matt, after reading your take, I am looking out my window right now.... Eight inches of snow. Drifted over sidewalks and driveways that I spent two hours shoveling yesterday. The winds are 20-30 mph, with occasional higher gusts. Wind-chill right around zero. There is no sun, and if there were, it would come up at 8:00 and go down at 4:30 p.m., meaning, there isn't a chance of seeing the light of day in a non-work moment. Tell me again why the Twins could or should sign an elite baseball pitcher to bring their family to this God-forsaken land? Wouldn't Carlos Rodon prefer to hang out in Los Angeles, maybe hit the beach by 10:00 am., ice-cream on the boardwalk, those barely dressed sexy young things zipping by on roller blades -- not a cloud in the sky, and all the glitz and glamor of California that make Carlos believe that with his talent, he should be priced like an epic piece of Christian Dior jewelry, dangling between the open front of that babe's prodigious tank top.

It's a possibility to be sure, but the skill set that makes Correa great at SS isn't based just on speed, which should age better. His superior defense is also based on his great arm and sure hands. he sets up deeper which a) gives him more time to react, and b) allows him to get to more balls in short left. He's also such a student of the game that he always positions himself well. There's a real possibility that his defense at SS ages much more like Cal Ripken, who was still playing great SS at age 34. Correa's one of those players that could easily keep playing shortstop into his mid-30's, and with his arm would have no trouble sliding down to 3B if his range slips to the point where a replacement is needed. Set the over/under on his remaining years at SS at 4 and I would bet the over, which makes a longer term deal with him more palatable.

This is a very interesting post Matt. Heaney is not exactly Shoemaker, Happ, Archer and Bundy as he has GREAT stuff and great potential. But health issues are ALWAYS knocking on his door and then there are bouts with inconsistency. He's a guy I wouldn't completely excoriate the Twins for signing (as opposed to a Shoemaker) but he's still kind of a Hail Mary no matter what your most realistic expectations are. And what would his role be ? Initial expectations would be to be our #3 starter. But if he gets hurt (and it's very likely he will) and you have to limit innings he would have to move to the bullpen, where honestly, he could be a good piece but not exactly be fulfilling what you expected him to do. In the end, I could live with a Heaney signing if the money I saved was used to plug some of the other holes the Twins roster has.

Sorry Mike, but I disagree: The Twins have actually had a pretty good lineage of Catchers going back to Butch Wynegar (people forget how good he was) Harper Ortiz Steinbach Blanco Pierzynski Mauer Redmond Suzuki All above average catchers (or extremely above average). Heck, even Laudner was an all-star one year. Jeffers has shown the ability to be above average, the question is can he regain that form, even if only partially? I am not as down on our catching as most. In today's world, Catchers are like Kickers in the NFL. They are generally afterthoughts. You pay if you have a rock-star, otherwise you find the right guys that can handle it or fit your team mold.

He's coached to frame the ball low as much as possible, including receiving the ball with a leg out instead of in a crouch. That decision affects his ability to block and his pop time to second base. I think Jeffers could adjust and improve in these areas if the team wanted him to do so. They'd rather have him framing low pitches for strikes. I keep going back to Jeffers' actual stats for base stealing. He was 3 bases below league average. Not runs, but bases allowed. If he's "terrible" then the average MLB catcher is also "terrible". With base stealing at a 50 year low I doubt the catchers are that bad at throwing out baserunners. It's far more likely that teams only attempt to steal with elite baserunners. I would love to see the team sign Vazquez. I enjoyed watching him play during the postseason (which also showcased the elite skills of Realmuto). I agree the team needs to add AAA depth as well.

We don't need another guy who's spent more time on the IL, than he has actually pitching.

Since Larnach has 1.101 years of service, I’d say “no chance”, but you do know that don’t you?

Spencer Steer is my choice. But I am open to a surprise. Wouldn't it be nice to see Lee tell the team to forget about all the minor league assignments and force his way on to the team? He can join a group of young 21 year olds who have jumped up before they were expected. Varland would mean that one of the expected rotation is injured - bad news. Wallner looks good only if Kepler is gone or he plays DH. Julien would be a good choice, but where do you play him. I will stick with one of our traded players.

All I've got to say about "cheap" owners is that the Pohlads have been head-and-shoulders better than Calvin Griffith. Man, I do not miss those days!

One of the kindest people I have had a chance to share small amount of time with. He went far out of his way to encourage me and my family during a tough time and has stayed in touch ever since I honestly can not be happier for Joe. A great human being.

We need a catcher. Let's face it...Jeffers isn't the guy. He's average at best defensively, and he can't hit.

Battey, Wynegar, Laudner, Mauer, Pierzynski, Harper, Suzuki, Mitterwald, Borgman, Steinback, Rosboro, Butera, Walbeck, That is not a list of greatness from top to bottom, but 5 - 6 of them are top catchers. Where does Jeffers fit into this list? He is the only catcher which has to change, but his performance so far has him outside the rank of good (not great) catchers, and the Great Mauer, Battey, Pierzynski, Harper group at the top is a long way from anything we have now.

I've always felt having a quality catcher, or two, is very important, and an under rated position over the years for reasons I've never understood. Maybe it's because for so many decades they were defense first players and only a few were ever good/great offensively. Much like SS until the position was almost re-inveted in the 90's. But the #1 job for any catcher has been to handle the pitching the staff! That includes calling the game, even though the dugout has some say, communicating with the pitcher to keep them calm, listen to them, recognize what is working, making adjustments, providing a good target, etc. Jeffers does this part quite well. Does Jeffers throw out a lot of baserunning? No. He was right about league average in 2021, his only full season. He was not as good in the abbreviated 2020 or his sort season in 2022. And the Twins, as an organization, concentrate more on catching the low strikes with their catcher stance, vs defending the SB. That might not help. Does Sanchez have a gun? Yes. But despite reported defensive improvement, he still didn't do all the other things as well as Jeffers. RALLY GOAT has already laid out the various statistics regarding SB and runs scored and other notable numbers. And while defensive statistics are always a mixed bag to interpret, especially for catchers, it's been pointed out in previous OP's that the Twins ERA was better with Jeffers behind the plate than Sanchez last season. And BTW, where did this whole pitch framing idea become about "stealing" strikes? I'm sure it happens. But pitch framing is about exactly that; framing those "edge" pitches securely for a good look from the ump vs snatching/grabbing at them, in order to have a close strike called as a strike. When did that become "stealing" strikes? All of this to say I've watched Jeffers A LOT since he came up. He's lacking in a few area I'd like to see cleaned up and improved on, but I like what he does behind the plate, how he handles the staff, the general results from the staff when he's receiving, and feel he's at least "quality", if not good behind the dish. And nothing in my personal opinion is going to change anyone's mind. And that OK. We can agree to disagree. The biggest issue with Jeffers, IMO, has been his offense. I never bought in to the 2021 Twins having this league best catching idea, though I liked Garver a lot, (very similar to Jeffers in many respects), as I wasn't sure the rushed Jeffers, and his 2020 numbers, was sustainable. You have to remember, he was drafted in 2018 and appeared in 64 games. In 2019, his first full season, he appeared in 103 games split between A+ and AA. And YES, just like in college, he hit and produced. So as a 23yo, with 24 games played at the AA level, he was up with the Twins in 2020 sharing catching duties with Garver. And he produced in his SSS of 26 games. His 2021 wasn't good at the plate, despite 25 XBH. His 2022 got off to a poor start, but as previously listed above in a previous post, he was starting to shine and getting on a roll before the broken thumb basically finished his year. At 25yo, and a quality hitter/producer in college, his first couple of milb seasons, his debut in 2020, and his hot streaks before being hurt last year, I'm just not giving up on him at this point. I don't know how good he might yet be, but I do know there's still a lot of potential there. But regardless, he needs help. And unless the Twins are going to make a major FA or trade move...and there are other spots that I think need to be addressed as a greater priority...Narvaez is an ideal candidate to add. He's a decent, sold LH hitter and experienced backstop who helps make a nice combination for game calling and pitcher handling. I believe he should have already been signed. The whole 1 in the hand vs 2 in the bush scenario. After adding SOMEONE, the "desperation" in regard to catching is "what's next"? The FO has never ignored catching, drafting a few and acquiring a few, but Banuelos can't hit. Williams and Isola have bats, and potential, but appear to be #3 options at best, and probably #4. Camargo has a shot, but I believe is only going to be entering AAA for the first time in 2023. The rest of the Twins options were all drafted in 2021 and 2022. Five of them, and while there's talent and projection there, they're all 2-3yrs away. They should have already signed Narvaez, and then been knocking on Leon's door. "Hello, did you enjoy being in the Twins organization last year? Would you like to sign a split deal and be with us in 2023 as you were with Cleveland last year? We'd love to have you!" And if not Leon, then someone similar. I want a good catcher at St Paul to work with the pitchers and not have to feel FORCED to trust in Bechtold, Williams, or Isola if injury hits.

Correct, I am trying to weigh deficiencies and strengths relative to each other. A higher percentage of strikes on 16,000 to 20,000 pitches caught, vs 5-10 passed balls, vs 40-45 steals. Does anyone disagree that more strikes is better than fewer strikes? Of course not. MLB is very slow to change. I mean the Selig ball lasted 20 years. The NFL used replay and challenges for 15 years before MLB did. If you think robo-umps are coming next year, I love your optimism, but do not share it. I believe it will be 5 years or more.

Always get a smile when reading your pots, Cody. That's because every one will somewhere point out that player X was younger than Y% of the guys he faced or played against. I seriously doubt that when Pitcher Z gives up a go ahead double to Player XX he is thinking, that's ok, the guy is two years older than I. Seriously hope that Wallner plays very little next year, rather spend most of it in St. Paul. Why? Because I want AK, Larnach and Keps playing every day and putting up fantastic numbers. Will agree with the above comments that I also expect both of the pitchers to not pitch enough to be considered. Same with Julien, if Polo is healthy he is going to be in St. Paul. Would love seeing a Twin get the award, just will be shocked if it is any of these.....unless Lewis gets on the field by late May and hits like he did last year.

Can certainly agree with your last comment. If we had a great defensive catcher and he hits a buck ninety, so be it. I would be happy. And anything better is gravy. If I understand most of your response, you are indicating that his pitch framing offsets being bad or less than average on blocked balls and throwing out runners. LaTroy Hawkins made a comment on one of the broadcasts this summer that I loved, "good pitch framing is really bad umpiring." When changes are made to robo umps or a challenge system, Jeffers plus goes away. And changes are coming to the base size which will likely increase the amount of running teams do,. And I am not proposing they replace him, rather get someone better so that he is only playing about 40% of the games.

Jeffers was 8th (worst) in the AL with 5 passed balls last year. Sandy Leon was 6th worst with 6. 5 or 6 passed balls is maybe 3-4 runs per season at most. There were 2487 stolen bases league wide last year, 1/2 of a stolen base per team per game, that result in on average .3 of a run per steal. Jeffers had 31 steals on him, so that’s 10 runs estimated in the season. There are 100+ pitches thrown per game, getting a higher percentage of strikes impacts dozens of outcomes per game. Jeffers is ranked 21st (best) in the league. Improved counts puts at-bats in the pitchers’ favor. I think Jeffers is a high quality half of a catching tandem. The question is the other half. Narvaez seems like a good option. The Twins also have Banuelos, a good journeyman at the Saints but doesn’t hit, is supposed to be an excellent fielder. And Bechtold is progressing nicely (but doesn’t really hit either) if the rest of the lineup hits, Carlos Correa and a corner outfielder, DH… a black hole at catcher for half your games could be overcome.

Herein lies a crucial item for Joe to look into. TV revenue. The Twins TV contract is pathetic.

San Diego drew 1.2 million more fans in 2022 than the Twins and their TV contract makes ours look like tip money. Their total revenue is at least $100 million a year more than the Twins. The size of the market, as measured by population, (hint: see the Green Bay Packers) means less than a Dan Gladden statistic. Ps. I am bummed that the Fire Dan Gladden moniker is taken. If you want arrogance, incoherence, bad grammar; Dan is the smorgasbord for you. I can only figure that Dan got into the Twins HOF because a) they were desperate to sell tickets and b) they had to bump Wally the Beerman for specific reasons.

As I stated in yesterday in a post why hasn't the twins signed Narvaez ... Defense and leadership is very important to the success of the team at the catcher position ... He calls the game , he positions players in the field , he blocks balls in the dirt ( limit wild pitches ), he throws out a high percentage of base stealers, he doesn't allow pass balls .... We have lacked a defensive catcher for awhile and I'm tired of seeing the ball get by the catcher and the runner scores from third base ... CATCHER IS THE BIGGEST NEED FOR A TEAM, , pure and simple , pitching is next ... Both world series contenders this year had a great defensive catcher ... That my plan and I'm sticking to it ...

Correa would have an automatic no-trade clause after the first four seasons (10-5 rule) so I think it's kind of immaterial.

I'd argue 2 other premier SS available at a lessor cost. TT and the Slide Machine have been quoted at anywhere from $260M to $320M for 8 to 10 years. XB and DS are the two that could come at a definitive lower cost.

with the new rules on the pitchers, I see base runners will be running a lot more that'll put a lot of stress on Jeffers. Plus not having a strong arm, Jeffers will have a lot of problems. Narvaez is an ideal platoon, we need to focus on getting him to set our floor. If we sign Correa we have our tandem if we don't, we can pivot & sign Contreras. If we sign Contreras, we can trade Jeffers. PIT has 2 very promising catching prospects, Davis which has been PIT top prospect for a little while and up coming switch hitting E Rodriguez. Rodriguez last season has shown that he has all the tools to be a very good catcher. IMO PIT could be thinking about competing this year, so they might consider an upgrade at catcher & maybe willing to let Rodriguez go. If so that could solve our catching problem for a very long time.

Heaney likely is the best we can do if we end up re-signing Correa or one of the other big 4 SS free agents. The reality is Falvey and Levine weren’t hired to hand out 9 figure free agent contracts to pitching. It’s time to see if their hard work building a pitching pipeline for the last 6 years is real or not.

What happened to the former Twins super stud pitching prospects? We watch them progress up the ladder of minor league teams and inevitably they get stuck on a rung of this ladder of success or completely fall off as they age out of the definition of "prospect". Remember when we Twins fans pinned our hopes on Gonsalves, Romero, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Mejia, and dozens of others? What happened? Are the odds that great that the current crop of Twins' superstar, stud pitchers will also fall off the ladder? Is this why the Twins have traded untested really young, recently acquired super pitching talent, like Graterol, Gil, Petty and others? Are these stud prospects available to be traded because the odds are so great against any of them becoming the stud pitcher which we predicted? If so, how do the Twins ever hope to home grow any inexpensive starting "Ace" pitchers, if they languish during their most formative years in Ft. Myers and Wichita or get traded away? Do they need to build up arm and leg strength? Do injuries derail them? Do they need the wisdom about whether to agree to whatever location and type of pitch the veteran catcher tells them to throw? Do they need years more practice to refine the required control? Do they need to wait until they finish growing? What are the differences between the few who succeed vs. those who fall from the ladder?

Essentially, Andrew Heaney is another failed left handed pitcher. Perfect for the Twins. He fits right into their wheelhouse. (There's nothing new under the sun.)

I like this idea too. Correa is a known substance whereas Lewis isn't. Also Lewis could slide into the 2B spot too. Why not have that problem of too many good players and not knowing where to put them.

Nice writing Old Twins Hat. Thanks.

Did you read the explanation Chpettit gave? Rather than double quote I just inserted it below. “But the RBI stat isn't measuring what people who like it claim it is. It's not at all hard to find BA with RISP stats. Or % of runners driven in stats. Or any number of combinations of outs, bases occupied, game situation, etc. stats that show who the actual clutch hitters are while RBI does nothing of the sort. For example: In 2022 Jose Abreu drove in 75 runs while Jose Miranda drove in 66. However, Abreu had 679 PAs to Miranda's 483. Miranda drove in 16.1% of the baserunners he had on during his 483 PAs. Abreu drove in 13.8% of his. Guy on 3rd, less than 2 outs? Abreu drove in 39.4% of his runners, Miranda drove in 47.2% of his. If I catch 200 walleyes over the course of a summer and you catch 150 am I the better fisherman. Well, if you fished 15 days and I fished 20 days, I would say no. I just had more opportunity to fish. What are we really looking for? We want a player to convert opportunities, right? Two players can drive in the exact same number of runs where one has 50% more opportunity. Those players are not equally adept at driving in runs because they both drove in the same number of runs. Measuring the percentage of conversions as Chepettit19 has explained here is a far better measure of productivity than simply using total RBI. Put a different way, using the one stat that actually counts runs does not provide any measure of effectiveness unless it's pair with the number of opportunities to drive in those runs.

I hope Ryan is a stud. But the Twins can't sign every young pitcher to an extension or they will end up with a roster of Dobnak's. If waiting a year or two costs the Twins money, it means Ryan is worth it. Happy to have him well compensated if he proves he is worth it. The Twins certainly need young SP's. Too soon.

Conversely he and his agent will know a lot more about his market value. If you still want him a year from now it could cost millions more.

120 games would be ideal, Production something like his 2020 season would be fantastic.

Nick "If you wanna play that "what if" game you'll never sign an elite free agent in the entire existence of your franchise. They'd be betting on their ability to develop cost-efficient pitching, but I'm okay with that. Even at a 150M payroll, I'm good with allocating $55M on two up-the-middle superstars in their prime in Correa and Buxton and building around them." Nick, while I can agree with your statement on playing the "what if" game, you are missing Steve's point here. With some glaring holes in the lineup, the pen, and perhaps top of the rotation, there is no way the Twins should be putting all their eggs in two baskets. $40MM to Correa precludes any other significant upgrades with a $140MM budget. We had Correa and Buxton(and his standard diminished playing time) in 22. How did that work out.? And has this FO shown the ability to develop an internal pitching pipeline? Yes, Ryan and Duran are very promising, but who else, after 6 years of drafting and development, can be counted on? And yet, you want to rely on this FO's track record? Concentrating on resigning Correa is a fool's errand unless it is combined with ownership's pronouncement that they are committed to breaking our playoff drought by giving the FO a clear directive that the only goal of 2023 is to win or else, and back this statement up by raising the budget to a $160-180MM range this offseason. I would have zero expectation of Jim Pohlad ever uttering such words, but there is always hope that the new generation will be different. C'mon Joe, let's pony up and get serious for a change! Twenty years without one playoff victory has made this franchise a laughingstock.

And that's part of why Strider isn't a great comparison. He's more than two years younger than Ryan. With extension, Atlanta can keep Strider through age 30. Twins already control Ryan past that point.

I completely agree. Using round numbers, if the choice is... Option 1: Correa @ 9/300 Option 2: Bogaerts @ 7/200 I want Bogaerts. He is Correa's superior on offense, though the gap is not large. On defense, he is about average. Correa has more years left to play SS and is superior on defense by about the same amount the Bogaerts is on offense. Between offense and defense, they bring essentially the same value over the next 2-3 seasons. And Bogaerts's superior offense likely plays better at 3B or 2B when it is time to move down the defensive spectrum, making the deal more valuable in those last 2-3 years of the contract. Plus, Bogaerts has a sizeable lead in average games played and PAs per season over their respective careers. The advantage you get from a Correa signing is likely better production in years 4-7 of their respective contracts as Bogaerts is, and will always be, two years older.

120 games played in the field. That's still every 4th game off.A k rate under 30%. Don't half ass run out a batted ball and get hurt again. Is that too much to ask for someone that's supposed to be a superstar in his prime?

In the 5 years since his last full season of 2017 he has averaged 55 games a year in CF: 2018 - 27 2019 - 78 2020 - Short season so can't compare 2021 - 60 2022 - 54 He may be a 4 fWAR player based on the 54 games in CF last year plus his DH time but his lack of health contributed to the extended amount of playing time for Cave and Celestino in CF which in my mind had negative value for the team. For 2023 to be a success for Buxton he needs to find a way to be healthy enough to play 100 games in CF and be available for the playoffs should the Twins make them.

Year 6 of this FO's tenure, and "poor mechanics" is still in our vocabulary? Quick, better hire an Assistant Director of Elbow Flexion!

If he'd sign that deal I'd do it in a heartbeat (and I don't think he's a star, but more so a really solid #3 type with #2 peaks here and there). I don't think Ryan would sign it, though. 30+ starts in 2023 with numbers similar to what he put up in 27 starts in 2022 makes him significantly more money than that. He's currently set to hit free agency going into his age 32 season so I'd think he'd want significantly more than 12.5 million guaranteed for his first 2 free agency years when he'd be likely to make double that in 1 year on the market in 2028 by simply maintaining his current performance. I don't see the motivation for Ryan to accept that deal.

How many fans were trampled in effort to get their favorite player?

Your contract offer seems reasonable. But if I am Joe Ryan, I am not sure I take that offer this year. If next year is similar to last year, (not unreasonable), that offer could rise dramatically. How much does he want to bet on himself?

There's no rush. He's not going anywhere unless the Twins want him to. Let's see how 2023 goes.

Not sure he will age that well. I would wait before doing the extension.

This might be what it takes, but I would only do this deal if Mr. Joe Pohlad is going to increase the budget a moderate amount to the $160-70M range. Otherwise, I would be concerned that we would have too many financial eggs in one basket for the long run. What happens if Correa falls off after 2 or 3 years? Twins with a sub-$150M budget would be hamstrung.