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Over Thanksgiving, I was pondering something just like this, thanks for crystalizing it so well. If the Twins won 1 world series in that first four years and Correa was an average contributor the rest of his career (or left after 4), that would be well worth it. If you proceed with a strategy like this, I think you start with a bottom line at $300mil and let another team push you up to the $325mil (which is likely to occur). I'm also curious about something from the forum community. Opt Outs are clearly around for good barring some larger shift in economics or strategies. Why haven't we (or will we?) start to see Team Options attached to the Opt Out year...essentially the equivalent of a "right of first refusal" for teams...embedded into contracts? It would work something like this as an example: Player Opts out of deal after year 4 Team can automatically resign player (like an option) at a pre-agreed price (e.g. the established run rate of $40mil) before they hit the open market. This way the player has the ability to leverage their performance potential and seize the market rate, but the team is also protected from outright losing the player to the competitive market if they are still performing at the high level, reducing fan anxiety and continuing player/team partnerships that are genuinely working. You could also get creative with what that option looks like. It could trigger multiple years or just one. It could be a pre agreed price or something similar to the "qualifying offer" where it is an average of the top X players salaries.

This might be what it takes, but I would only do this deal if Mr. Joe Pohlad is going to increase the budget a moderate amount to the $160-70M range. Otherwise, I would be concerned that we would have too many financial eggs in one basket for the long run. What happens if Correa falls off after 2 or 3 years? Twins with a sub-$150M budget would be hamstrung.

I like it... But, it's also not my money.

I don't understand the fan's need to hear from the owner more than once or twice per year. What are you expecting them to say publicly? It's not like they're going to tell you something you don't know or some insider info that hasn't been released yet. If they do that's BS to the people who work for them. Owners that negotiate with Boras or block trades when they've been agreed upon create poor cultures. It doesn't tell me they want to win more when they do that. But it does make me think a bunch of other stuff. There is a reason people want to copy Tampa's culture, Stu Sternberg trusts his baseball people. They've made good decisions mostly. Would they make better decisions with more money? Who knows? Maybe they wouldn't be as creative or forced to make certain choices with a larger payroll. Driving change should be the responsibility of the people who work in the business each and every day. Maybe an owner should ask questions, encourage, and create a culture that values innovation. But most owners aren't around daily to push it forward. I guess my point is saying the Twins need different ownership or need to "open their wallets" is misguided. The Pohlads take owning the Minnesota Twins very seriously.

100 games played. He’s only done it once in his MLB career. Everything else will take care of itself if he can play a triple digit amount of games.

Not sure he will age that well. I would wait before doing the extension.

How many teams actually win the world series with a generally fiscally-conservative, don't take risks approach? For a sample, take the last ten seasons - really only the Royals in that span could be described in that manner. Champions are bold and take calculated risks. Yes, a long term deal such as this is taking a chance. At least, it's taking a chance on a proven MLB elite-level SS and leader. Risk avoidance is another term for also-ran in sports. Fortune favors the bold....

If you wanna play that "what if" game you'll never sign an elite free agent in the entire existence of your franchise. They'd be betting on their ability to develop cost-efficient pitching, but I'm okay with that. Even at a 150M payroll, I'm good with allocating $55M on two up-the-middle superstars in their prime in Correa and Buxton and building around them.

Could you name one? There has never been a front-loaded $300M contract signed in MLB history, let alone one with an option layout like this. I'm not sure what you mean by "structured this way" other than the vaguest of generalizations.

Carl and Jim Pohlad are both businessmen, who owned a baseball team. Since the day Joe graduated from Boston College he has worked in the business of baseball. First, he worked in NYC in the MLB offices. Don’t know what he did at the league offices, but he was there for four or five years so it was more than an intern. Next he returned to the Twin Cities and has worked at various front office jobs since. Sounds to me that 20 some years ago the Pohlads said, “we own a billion dollar business, it makes sense that someone in the family learns the business to be qualified to run it someday. Joe volunteered and someday is today.

I would just want him to be honest with himself. If he can't perform and needs rest or surgery, then rest or have surgery. Dragging himself through the season doesn't seem to be working for him or the Twins.

In the 5 years since his last full season of 2017 he has averaged 55 games a year in CF: 2018 - 27 2019 - 78 2020 - Short season so can't compare 2021 - 60 2022 - 54 He may be a 4 fWAR player based on the 54 games in CF last year plus his DH time but his lack of health contributed to the extended amount of playing time for Cave and Celestino in CF which in my mind had negative value for the team. For 2023 to be a success for Buxton he needs to find a way to be healthy enough to play 100 games in CF and be available for the playoffs should the Twins make them.

Someone on here said that if the Twins won the world series in the first four years of a potential Correa signing that it would be worth it. Does anyone really think this team l, currently constructed, has any chance of winning a world series? IMO it's going to take a lot more than Correa to win a world series. When there is so much money tied up into one player it's nearly impossible to be able to afford upgrades needed in other areas. Let's move on from this Correa nonsense and redistribute those payroll dollars into other areas.

Like a couple other posts, I can only say I have no idea. Never been over to their home and they have not come and visited with me. They are rich people with a Ball team. I am a poor old guy who loves to read and listen to baseball. I have no way to judge Jim and no way to know about Joe. I just want a good competitive team.

I would like to see him reach the maximum incentives in his contract.

Agreed and then he should give me a contract as well :)

The reason I've liked Correa long-term is that he is still under 30. Paying a Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera or even Albert Pujols superstar dollars for their declining years is something I don't want to see. Correa should be a great ballplayer for the proposed highest salary years. If he was still at the top of his game after four years and wanted a bigger deal, more power to him. Thank you and goodbye. Regarding Lewis, he is an "if" for 2023. If he returns in full health coupled with a Correa signing, he is a huge trade chip or a future fixture in the outfield or third base.

Year 6 of this FO's tenure, and "poor mechanics" is still in our vocabulary? Quick, better hire an Assistant Director of Elbow Flexion!

You're probably correct Nick. There hasn't been a front-loaded $300M contract, especially with opt outs that I remember. My point was there are front-loaded contracts with opt outs at lesser dollar amounts and fewer years that would provide a framework, no matter the total dollar figure. Nolan Arenado, Eric Hosmer, J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale all have front-loaded contract with opt outs. Player opt outs are also used liberally in the NBA. By "structured this way" I meant a long-term contract where the money is front-loaded and includes opt out clause or two. I wasn't trying to be vague or generalize.

Jeffers has the equivalent of one seasons ABs (534) over his three year stint. I am hoping he matures as a hitter and I hope we have a hitting coach that can teach more than launch angle. Right now he is a Tim Laudner and we need better than that. He is 25 and could break out as an answer to all our needs. His minor league numbers say that he has a lot more to give.

I like your idea Nick, Correa & Boras would love this contract. I don't think anyone would come close to offer this contract with this total amount of money & years, together with opt outs. But I agree with Steve this contract could very well hamstring our club. I'd suggest a lower base pay with incentives (like an escalating price based on how many games he plays, WS, championships, awards etc) that could bring this total to the ammount you recommended. I wouldn't mind giving him these yrs. & $ if it's linked to incentives. Correa & Boras egos would be satisfied with having a record salary yet it gives the club some breathing room.

Entering the 2022 season, Minnesota Twins minor league starting pitcher was considered by many to be a borderline top 100 prospect and by most to be the top pitcher in the team’s farm system. However, a brutal campaign—which was delayed until mid-May due to a left knee strain—has dulled the Canadian’s once glistening sheen. Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson, Twins Daily Jordan Balazovic was held to a mere 70 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level where he posted a mind-numbingly poor 7.39 ERA, by far the worst of his career. His peripheral numbers weren’t much better. Below is a comparison of how Balazovic has performed in many key stats over his last three seasons. (He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the pandemic.) Like many young arms with natural talent, Balazovic crushed the lower minors. However, as he ascended through the ranks, his performance has dipped, culminating in his forgettable 2022 season at Triple-A. It’s not uncommon for an individual’s stats to decline as he moves up the minor league ladder—each level consists of better and better players, after all—but Balazovic’s represent a relatively steep decline. What stands out the most is the increase in hard contact he has surrendered, particularly last season. As he has only appeared in the minors, we don’t have publicly available Statcast data for Balazovic, but at a certain point average exit velocities and hard-hit percentages aren’t needed. His BABIP against has increased nearly 40%, while his line drive percentage has gone up 81% and his home runs per fly ball by a staggering 471% from High-A to Triple-A. In short, his pitches are getting hit harder and harder by better and better hitters. Additionally, his walk rates have increased while his strikeout rates have simultaneously dropped from 2019 to 2022. Balazovic has never been one to have pinpoint command despite respectable strikeout numbers (see his K-BB%), and that lack of command has become more troublesome as the opposing batters’ patience has improved at each level. It would be interesting to see his opposing batter chase and whiff rates at all three levels—almost assuredly they would both decrease—but that data isn’t publicly available. So that belies the question: What can Balazovic due to improve his stuff and get back on the top prospect hype train? Well, I don’t know. At least not entirely. Pitching is a complex endeavor, both mentally and physically, so rarely is there a simple answer. But I do have a few ideas that my be helpful. Potential Option #1: Increase elbow flexion at foot plant This is something that the team of biomechanics wizards at Driveline has looked into quite a bit. Elbow flexion is measured by the degree of bend at the elbow. A fully extended elbow would have 0 degrees of flexion while a fully flexed elbow—biomechanically impossible—would be 180 degrees. Driveline has found that, on average, their most elite pitchers (i.e. fastest throwers) achieve 107 degrees of elbow flexion when the foot of their lead leg hits the ground. As seen in the picture above, Balazovic frequently fails to reach beyond 90 degrees of flexion, and at times seemingly doesn’t even reach 90 degrees. (Granted, it’s difficult to say with 100 percent certainty from the behind-the-mound camera angle, but this is the best option available to the public.) Potential Option #2: Decrease posterior trunk lean (i.e. extension) at foot plant Another Driveline favorite. They have found that most elite pitchers that train with them have, on average, negative 10 degrees of anterior trunk lean at foot plant. In English, that means that the best-of-the-best pitchers generally bend backwards slightly when their foot hits the ground. It’s difficult to put an angle on Balazovic without biomechanics tracking software, but eyeballing it, it seems as though he frequently leans too far back at foot plant. This can contribute to a number of flaws during the throwing motion, particularly making the arm “drag” behind, decreasing command. Potential Option #3: Increase knee extension power throughout arm swing All pitchers land with a certain degree of knee flexion (i.e. knee bend) at foot plant. The pitchers who through hardest are able to forcefully extend (i.e. straighten) the knee as they thrust their pitching arm forward. This creates a rigid lever that increases torque and, thus, pitch velocity. Last season, Balazovic seemingly struggled with this. Perhaps of note, his lead leg is his left and he was reportedly dealing with left knee discomfort all season. It’s possible that the lingering pain caused him to diminish his knee extension after foot plant, impacting his velocity and command. Potential Option #4: Increase efficient separation between his trunk and pelvis Watch the video below. The first frame resulted in a ball while the next three were strikes. See if you can parse a difference between Balazovic’s trunk and pelvis between the three pictures. balazovic 1.mov Ok, now here’s a video with my notes. balazovic 2.mov When Balazovic is able to get his hips pointing toward the plate at foot plant, he’s able to efficiently rotate his torso and throw strikes. When he isn’t his arm lags behind and the result is more often than not a ball. In short, in order for Balazovic to improve and become a solid MLB pitcher, I would argue that he needs to not only tighten up his mechanics but improve his motion's consistency. His windup consists of many long levers and moving parts, both of which serve to reduce consistency (and, theoretically increase strain on the low back; he's struggled with back pain at time during his brief career). The options I've laid out above may help accomplish the opposite. View full article

I know nothing about pitching mechanics. What i can tell you is the game I watched him pitch in August, he couldn't throw his secondary pitches for strikes. The batters sat on his fast ball and it wasn't pretty.

120 games played in the field. That's still every 4th game off.A k rate under 30%. Don't half ass run out a batted ball and get hurt again. Is that too much to ask for someone that's supposed to be a superstar in his prime?

If he could play 120 games in CF / 30 at DH and hit 40 HRs with 40 SB would be a good start. 50/50 would be better. In all seriousness though for 105 million don’t we need 15-20 WAR over the life of the contract to break even and we got more than 4 last year so… I would be happy with a 5+ WAR season as I think it’s prudent to start the contract ahead of pace in case the back end is not so lucky ? also would like to see Buxton hit 30-40 WAR during the contract and get some of those MVP incentives in his contract.

Gerrit Cole and I believe Trevor Story have this clause, or similar, in their contracts. If Cole opts out the Yankees have the option to resign him for 1 year at $36 million. In Story's case he can opt out and Red Sox can add another year onto his deal. But I do like your idea, it puts some risk back on the player.

signing correa does no good.....he cannot pitch......until you solve that...you are just wasting money!!

He does not need to be extended, if he wants to get paid he needs to perform and will be rewarded with high arbitration salaries. The Twins get his best years and maintain payroll flexibility if he gets injured or doesn't perform.

It's a better idea than locking up Randy Dobnak. I think they can wait a year before making this move. He's under control for the peak of his career so the reason to do this is to keep arbitration costs down.

I vote no. (Not that the front office cares what I think.) Ten years is just too long. Those 10-year mega deals rarely work out. Correa is a great player, but a lot of his value is tied up in his defense. Do you think he will still be playing elite SS four years from now? He also spends a fair amount of time of the DL. The average annual value doesn't bother me, but as others have said, a ten-year deal is just too much risk for this organization.

There's no rush. He's not going anywhere unless the Twins want him to. Let's see how 2023 goes.

We’d be betting on their ability to develop cost - efficient pitching. Since they really haven’t shown the ability to do that I’m not taking that bet.

I hope he does a better job in this position than he did designing/approving the rebranding. I still don't understand why that was a need. What is wrong with traditional Logo's? Seems the yankees have done well sticking with the NY caps as long as I can remember, back into the late 50's.

I think that the number one thing this move tells us is that the Pohlad family isn't looking to sell the franchise and is looking to keep it going as a family business. One of the reasons Glen Taylor sold the Timberwolves was there wasn't anyone in his family that was particularly interested in the team and wanted to run the club. Having someone from the next generation stepping into a senior role now suggests that the Pohlad family is looking at continuity. One of the reasons the family kept the team after Carl died was Jim wanted to keep running the team. Now they may have someone in the family that will want to keep running the team after Jim ages out or passes. Sometimes long-time family ownership works really well. (Rooneys in Pittsburgh are model owners) Sometimes, maybe not (how have the Fords done in Detroit?). Baseball seems to have struggled with family ownership lasting multiple generations in recent years, so it'll be interesting to see if the Twins go to a 3rd generation Pohlad. I'm sure this will also inspire a level of fury in some fans who think that all of our woes and budget caps will go away if the Pohlads would just sell the team and now it seems like they may have the family in control for the foreseeable future...

Correa is like an addictive substance - I've had a whole season and damn I want more! It almost seems like a dream that he was a Twin for a whole year.

If there's a path, it's something like this, though I wonder if the AAV is slightly light. But it's in the ballpark, and if the Twins have the cojones, it's an offer structure they should consider. Correa would certainly listen, and it would be at the very least close. I'm not afraid to look naïve: the Twins should sign Correa, and more than that, I expect them to. This is what they need to come and play.

More than likely, and hopefully, this move has been in the works for a while now. The "effective immediately" is surprising. No matter what anyone thinks of Jim Pohlad, I'm sure no one would want it to be health related. In my opinion, I'd want Joe Pohlad to be more involved than his uncle seemed to be, more interested in the success of the team, and in more touch with the fan base. Yes, it's a business for them, and their family is in it to make a profit, but we're a long way from our two WS titles. I'd want him...to WANT to win. I guess in general...be as much a fan of the Twins and MLB baseball, as he is an owner. Hope that makes sense.

Unless that just gives payroll certainty to whomever he is traded to....

I really like Mitch Haniger but wanted to do a little searching for other options. After trading Urshela and putting Miranda at 3rd you could say we have a RH bat opening at 1st. So now I'm looking for an outfielder/1B who hits lefties that I can platoon with Kep/Arreaz/Kirlloff/Larnach/Gordon, start in a OF corner or at 1st base. Wil Myers: https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player-splits.php?id=10972 Mitch Haniger: https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player-splits.php?id=12491 I'm just looking at their offensive stats here from 2022. I don't believe either is a gold glover anywhere on the field and neither was fully healthy last season. Haniger is the better overall player but if I'm looking at just lefties and home/away splits. Myers makes a lot of sense, plays 1st base and likely could be signed on a one year deal. Just food for thought

Be a star while he's out there. I don't think you can put numbers on him anymore. He just needs to be the best player on the field when he takes the field for as many games as he can take it.

So, fix the ass angle, knee extension and make straight the hips, then its balaz to the walaz.

I wonder if the Pohlad family has ever used the code "Gleeman" when purchasing something.

Agree that this is creative and expect there is a real chance it would get the job done. But I sure hope that it doesn't get done. Why, I cringe when I think of paying this type of money for 10 years. I believe that Royce Lewis is and should be the Twins shortstop over the next 5-8 years. I don't see the need to break the bank to sign Correa. And this contract would break the bank.

Thanks Lucas for your enlightening article. We all knew Balazovik had problems with his poor mechanic due to past injuries but you explained them very well. There's a lot he can work on, hopefully he'll stay healthy & they are able to fix him.

I couldn't agree more with Doc's comments. I've lived well away from Minnesota since the season of our 1st WS win in 1987 and about all I ever hear about the Pohlad family originates on this site and other Minnesota-centric sources, same as Doc. And I take many of those comments and opinions with a grain (or two) of salt. I've personally never really had any significant issues with how the Pohlads have run the franchise since they bought it from the Griffith family. I know that there are some out there with a dim view of their ownership. They're definitely entitled to there own opinions but I, for one, have never seen or heard verifiable corroborating evidence that supports some of their opinions. Maybe elevating Joe will help elevate the appeal of the team to a younger fan base and maybe some of the more cynical of the older fan base, too. However, only time will tell there. I'm anxious to see how this all plays out.

I sure like the location and Kaufmann park , they have done lots of remodeling improvements over the years and for an older stadium it is a great ballpark to watch a game ...