Leaderboard

Coming into the 2022 season, Twins Daily ranked Austin Martin, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino as the first, fourth, and sixth best prospects in the organization, respectively. Not only were they high-caliber talents with polish and big upside, but they were all more or less on the precipice of major-league readiness. In each case, things hardly could've gone worse. Whether performance, injury, or a combination, each of these critical assets saw his stock nosedive over the past summer, and it adds another layer of complexity for a front office trying to build its way back to contention. With that said, hope isn't lost for any of these three. Let's take a look at each of their campaigns so far, as things come close to wrapping up here in September. Austin Martin and the power that never came. The prize of last year's José Berríos trade at the deadline, Martin was billed as a near-ready prospect right out of the gates. It was warranted, after he led all of Double-A in on-base percentage during his first pro season. Despite his resounding success, Minnesota sent Martin back to the same level this year, no doubt hoping he'd shore up his biggest weakness from 2022 – an absence of power to complement the excellent OBP – and earn a quick call-up to Triple-A or even the majors. That didn't happen. Martin's power trended the wrong direction this year. After slugging .382 with a .127 ISO and five home runs in 418 PAs between New Hampshire and Wichita, this year he's slugging .317 with an .074 ISO and two home runs in 406 PAs at Wichita. Martin has kept his on-base skills steady, with a .367 OBP despite the crummy .241 average, but his lack of ability to drive the ball with any authority almost renders it moot. Posting a .685 OPS as a 23-year-old in your second turn at Double-A, with no apparent underlying injury, is nothing short of disastrous. Given all the injuries the Twins have faced this season, it's likely Martin would've gotten a chance at some point if he'd even modestly improved his production from a year ago. His drop-off eliminated that possibility and will leave him as something of an afterthought heading into 2023. Martin's going to tank on national prospect lists, where he ranked around #50 by consensus coming into the season. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Martin would hardly be the first player to develop significant power rapidly in his mid-20s. In fact, two "shortstop" prospects who came before him in the Twins system serve as optimistic precedents: Brain Dozier totaled 14 home runs in 317 games through his first three minor-league seasons. Five years later he would set an American League record by launching 42 as a second baseman in 2016. Jorge Polanco hit 35 total home runs total in 598 minor-league games, and could barely muster an XBH in his early days. He hit 33 home runs for the Twins last year. Jordan Balazovic's puzzling struggles in St. Paul. We had Balazovic ranked as the #1 pitcher in the system coming into this year, following a strong campaign at Double-A where he posted a 3.62 ERA and 9.5 K/9 rate as a 22-year-old. Relative to other arms in the system, Balazovic had a more consistent track record and more established workload base, which is why it seemed feasible to envision him playing a significant role in the Twins rotation this year. His abominable performance at Triple-A has done away with that notion entirely. Balazovic started a month late with the Saints due to a knee strain. While he ostensibly put that behind him, staying healthy enough to take the mound each sixth day, he has never seemed right at any point. The right-hander's performance with St. Paul has been beyond awful. In 62 ⅔ innings across 20 appearances, he's 0-6 with a 7.47 ERA. Opponents have slashed .342/.412/.625 against him, as both his walk and home run rates have spiraled out of control. Balazovic has made 19 starts for the Saints and completed five innings ONCE. In late June, Balazovic told Dean Spiros of the Pioneer Press his struggles were "like a puzzle; every day it’s something new." "I’ve never pitched like this,” Balazovic said. “Last year (at Double-A Wichita) my numbers started to get worse in the second half because I was working on stuff. That’s kind of carried over to this season a little bit, but not to where it should be affecting me this bad.” The big 6-foot-5 righty boiled his issues down to consistency and execution, but expressed hope he was getting closer to solving the puzzle. "I’m still hoping for that day," he said, "and I’m hoping that day is tomorrow." It wasn't. The following day he needed 60 pitches to get through 2 ⅔ innings against the Iowa Cubs, allowing five hits (two homers) and two walks. His next time out he coughed up five earned runs in three innings against Omaha. These have been typical results for Balazovic this year, and as a result he's slid down a pitching pipeline hierarchy that's already been depleted by the Chase Petty trade and the development we'll look at next. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Balazovic didn't quite follow through on his "hoping that day is tomorrow" goal, but he might not have been far off? While he bombed in his next two starts, he's been on a bit of a roll ever since, posting a 2.52 ERA and 29-to-11 K/BB ratio with just three homers allowed over 25 innings in his past six starts. Sometimes guys need to experience their worst to unlock their best. Balazovic has plenty of talent to rebound and get back on track. Matt Canterino and the elbow that finally gave way. Canterino's elbow is the only thing that's stood in his way. Drafted 54th overall in 2019 after blowing people away at Rice University for three years, the hard-throwing righty immediately started doing the same to professional hitters. In a 25-inning debut between rookie ball and Low-A, he posted a 1.44 ERA with 31 strikeouts and only eight hits allowed. Then, the pandemic happened and wiped out the 2020 season. In 2021, he was limited to 23 total innings by a forearm strain (he posted a 0.78 ERA when he was able to pitch). This year, his elbow soreness re-emerged and while the Twins continually tried to navigate around it, treating surgery as a last resort, they eventually ran out of options. "It felt like we didn't have anymore stones to turn over," said assistant GM Jeremy Zoll. Unfortunately, the efforts to avoid surgery only delayed it, and now Canterino's prospective impact has also been pushed well down the line. Since he didn't undergo Tommy John until last month, Canterino will likely miss all of next year rehabbing, meaning that by the time he's ready to fully return to the mound, he'll be a 26-year-old with fewer than 100 innings as a pro. It's really difficult to come back from that. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Difficult, but not impossible. The biggest cost of all this lost time would theoretically be missed development for a guy who's barely been able to get in-game reps since being drafted three years ago. For Canterino, I'm not sure it matters as much. He's basically always looked like a guy ready for the majors when he's pitched, with raw stuff that speaks for itself. So long as that stuff remains mostly intact after the surgery, he'll have a chance to get back up to speed quickly and make his long-awaited impact on the bullpen, even if it's not until 2024. Feeling bummed out? I hear you! Make sure to check back tomorrow when I break down the most uplifting developments on the farm for the Twins this year ... Good news: I couldn't manage to limit that list to just three.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/12 through Sun, 9/18 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 73-73) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +18) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 140 | MIN 6, KC 3: Twins Lose No-No in Ninth, Win Easily Game 141 | MIN 4, KC 0: Gray Leads Shutout with Seven Scoreless Game 142 | MIN 3, KC 2: Bullpen Locks Down Slim Lead for Sweep Game 143 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Twins Can't Hold Onto 3-Run Lead Game 144 | CLE 5, MIN 1: Wallner Homers in Debut, Twins Lose Game 145 | CLE 6, MIN 5: 15-Inning Marathon Yields Same Result Game 146 | MIN 3, CLE 0: Twins Salvage Win Behind Ryan's Brilliance NEWS & NOTES As this lost season winds down, the Twins continue to fittingly be besieged by a never-ending onslaught of injuries. Max Kepler became the latest to join the infirmary pack this past week, with his wrist issue forcing him onto an injured list that already includes fellow planned lineup staples Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. Polanco, who's been sidelined for weeks by a knee injury, tried to give it a go in a rehab start at St. Paul on Friday night but couldn't make it all the way through, exiting after five innings. He's probably done for the season. Jeffers and Larnach had more encouraging starts to their rehab assignments, and both have a chance to make it back for the final slate of games, for whatever that's worth. As a silver lining to Kepler going down, the IL move did create an opportunity for Matt Wallner, who homered in his major-league debut on Saturday. In this total wreck of a season, it's nice at least to see local boys like Wallner and Louie Varland get these chances – well earned with monster years in the minors. Another young player set to get his first chance: Ronny Henriquez, who was promoted on Sunday despite posting a 5.66 ERA at St. Paul. Not quite as well earned, but they just need bodies on the staff at this point, basically. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins have this going for them: they can still flat-out dominate the Royals. They ran up their winning streak against Kansas City to seven with another sweep at home, suppressing any hint of offensive threat from the woeful Royals lineup. On Monday, Joe Ryan pitched seven innings of no-hit ball before being lifted at 106 pitches. Reliever Jovani Moran nearly completed the feat, but the Royals were finally able to get on the board in the ninth. Sonny Gray looked somehow even more dominant the following night, tossing seven shutout innings of his own. Thursday saw the bullpen step up with a huge string of clutch performances, as five different relievers contributed one shutout inning apiece to maintain a slim one-run lead. Relievers weren't able to hold up quite as well on Friday, following an excellent return to action from Bailey Ober (5 IP, 0 R), but we'll get to that later. After flirting with a no-no in his first start of the week, Ryan turned in one of the finest performances of his career in the second, hurling 7 ⅔ shutout innings against Cleveland. He allowed just three hits and two walks in the highly efficient outing, lowering his ERA to 3.61 in the process. While Ryan has shown his warts this year (namely, a problematic proneness to home runs), he's undoubtedly been one of the team's most successful starters, and is on his way to finishing strong. LOWLIGHTS Plenty of frustration has been aired far and wide about the Twins and their management of the pitching staff. Personally, I don't have a problem with the general philosophy, given their personnel. But it's the complete rigidity of Minnesota's strict adherence to the playbook that gets to me. There's no room for reacting to circumstances, or pushing the boundaries when it's absolutely necessary. Take Friday night for example. The Twins had every reason to set aside their cautionary nature and push Ober a bit in his return to action. He looked great. He was at only 70 pitches through five innings. Most importantly, the bullpen had been run ragged in protecting a tight lead for five innings the previous day, and a double-header was on deck the next. Didn't matter. Ober came out after five innings, as is custom. Rocco Baldelli ran through arguably his four best relievers, all pitching on back-to-backs, and lost anyway. It left essentially no relief ammo for the rest of the weekend, culminating with Dereck Rodriguez pitching four frames in extra innings as the team's season hung by a thread and gave way. Alas, while it's easy to get caught up in the early hooks and shortcomings on the mound, there's no doubt where the blame primarily lies for this team's downfall: an offense woefully unequipped to compete. This team was always built around the strength of its lineup, which has turned into a debilitating weakness here in the late stages of the season. Since the start of August the bullpen has largely been stabilized and the pitching has been fine overall (6th among AL teams in pitching WAR, 8th in ERA). Meanwhile, the offense has fizzled out during this span, ranking 11th in wOBA and 10th in runs scored. The last time the Twins notched double-digit runs in a contest was August 30th against Boston; since then they have averaged 3.4 runs per game, scoring more than four times in just four of 18. With production like that, a 6-12 record is about what you expect. No amount of savvy pitching management or bullpen string-pulling can overcome such a dearth of run scoring. Saturday night epitomized the team's inability to muster anything with the bats. In a grinding 15-inning affair, the Twins could not will themselves to victory despite receiving opportunity after opportunity. They managed only seven hits in 15 innings and went 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position before finally succumbing to their eighth consecutive loss against Cleveland. Astonishing ineptitude. Then again, it's pretty easy to see how we've gotten to this point. You look at their lineup on any given day and it's now filled with minor-leaguers, third-stringers, retreads. Jake Cave batting fifth. Jermaine Palacios drawing daily starts. Billy Hamilton receiving major league at-bats, in an ostensible pennant race. Even (especially?) with all the attrition, it'd be nice to see anyone stepping up other Carlos Correa, whose September surge continued with another excellent week (10-for-28, two homers, two doubles). The most conspicuous under-performer in the lineup at this point might be Luis Arraez, himself battling through a hamstring issue. He went 3-for-14 against Cleveland and is slashing .284/.316/.397 since appearing in the All-Star Game in July. Since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.4 fWAR (tying him with Cave) and he has the worst Win Probability of all position players other than Kyle Garlick, Kepler, and Palacios. Given that I ranked Arraez a month ago as the single most important player to the team's chances in the stretch run, his drop-off – while several others near the top of that list have gone down with injuries – tells the story of this team's downfall in a nutshell. TRENDING STORYLINE Following their flop in Cleveland, the Twins find themselves with about a 1% chance of making the postseason – and that's based merely on historical odds, not accounting for the fact that almost their entire team is injured while their rivals (especially the Guardians) are enjoying much better health. It's over. So what now? What are the focuses for these final three weeks? Aside from playing out the string, the Twins' motivation has been reduced to: Trying to finish with a record above .500. Play spoiler against the White Sox, who now trail Cleveland by 3 ½ games. Have a few injured players get back on the field and finish the season on relatively positive notes. Get a look at some young players to set them up for bigger impacts in 2023. Personally, only the latter two are all that meaningful to me. And in the case of injured players, I think they're probably better off just shutting down the likes of Buxton, Polanco, and Larnach with hopes of getting them as healthy as possible for next spring. With that said, I hope we'll get to see Wallner, Varland, Henriquez, and maybe even Simeon Woods Richardson take the spotlight here in this final stretch. For me, it'll be the only real draw. LOOKING AHEAD Good news for the Twins in their quest to finish above .500, I guess: they've got three more games ahead against Kansas City, who they've defeated in 12 of 16 matchups. Then they'll host the Angels, with a Shohei Ohtani start on the slate for Friday night to kick off the final homestand of the season. MONDAY, 9/19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Cal Quantrill TUESDAY, 9/20: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Zack Greinke WEDNESDAY, 9/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – TBD v. LHP Daniel Lynch THURSDAY, 9/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Josh Winder v. RHP Jonathan Heasley FRIDAY, 9/23: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Shohei Ohtani v. RHP Joe Ryan SATURDAY, 9/24: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Reid Detmers v. RHP Sonny Gray SUNDAY, 9/25: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Jose Suarez v. RHP Dylan Bundy

Were the Twins to go the way of many teams and begin a long rebuild to return to contention? "I'm not using that word," Derek Falvey told the beat writers. Instead, 2022 would be a year for a reload. But what does a successful reload look like? The Twins set out to return to playoff contention as they had in 2019 and 2020. Doing so would require more money and trades than the team had done in previous years of Pohlad ownership. Teams often reload for playoff contention for several reasons but usually require a strong central core and only a few critical holes to fill. For the 2016 Red Sox, their last year with Hall of Famer David Ortiz and an ascending Mookie Betts, it meant grabbing David Price on a $217 million deal and Craig Kimbrel in a trade with San Diego. The team went from last to first in the division for the next three years, including a World Series ring in 2018. However, a better comparison for teams with smaller payrolls might be those 2005 White Sox. Their opening day lineup only featured three of the same faces from 2004, but none were rookies. Instead, Ozzie Guillén and Kenny Williams tried to rethink what kind of players to build around their core, grabbing AJ Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, and Scott Podsednik. Most of their core pitching returned, with Yankees pitcher Orlando Hernández filling in as their fifth man. Their salary ballooned from $65 million to $75 million, while the first-place Twins remained essentially static in the $50 million range. Of course, it was all worth it: the White Sox were an era-defining team, winning the division by six games, going on one of the all-time great post-season runs, and ending an 88-year-old championship drought. For the Twins going into 2022, there was enough in the revolver for one last go of a core set of players: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano, plus some promise with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff to step up (not to mention the many hopes around the arrival of Royce Lewis). Their bullpen had enough interesting names to build around. So why didn't the Twins work? First, the Twins had too many holes to fill, particularly in the starting pitching realm. Ober and Ryan had less than 100 innings under their belts, and Kenta Maeda was merely a glimmer of promise for a late-season comeback. The Twins needed a Day One starter, but quickly missed names like Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard, all of who made splashy but not impossible out-of-reach deals for the organization to match. When the market reopened, the Twins rebounded by making the smart move to trade their first-round draft pick for Sonny Gray. But then they went with not one not two but three different "fix me up" projects: Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Chris Paddack. Beyond Gray, that left five essentially unproven starters on opening day. The bullpen additions were equally shaky with the additions of Joe Smith and Emilio Pagán while dealing Taylor Rogers. Most importantly, the Twins essentially committed almost no new money in this realm beyond their trade capital, an odd sign for a team serious about contending. Of course, the Twins put money down this season with a pair of $100+ million contracts: an extension of Buxton and a second in a blockbuster deal to commit $35.1 million a year to Carlos Correa. Bringing in a playoff specialist like Correa was the essential move they needed. It at least felt part of their decision to erase bad clubhouse vibes by flipping Josh Donaldson for Yankees veterans Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez. Neither Urshela nor Sánchez were the top Bronx bombers, but there was plenty of sense they were the kind of players who understood big spots and big games. And yet, the Twins probably remained slim in other veteran talent to reinforce their lineup. The previous year had demonstrated that the team did not have their prospects ready to go as eight different men took to center field to fill in injury after injury. Whether the Twins expected this year's injury woes to be worse than last year, their decision to depend entirely on prospects to back up Buxton and Kepler felt short-sided with plenty of low-end veterans available on the market (Kevin Pillar for example took a minor league deal with the Dodgers). A strong reload rarely means depending on new players—those 2005 Sox were all veterans beyond their season call-up of closer Bobby Jenks—but the Twins seemingly put a lot of hope on what feels like too many prospects suddenly becoming core players. Jose Miranda, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran, have made themselves essential to this year's success, but others still have question marks about their long term viability (whether injury or ability). Either way, building through prospects is similar to what this year's Mariners have done where team has done after a long rebuild where they plan on years of contention after making a number of high profile trades and signings of known quantities to reinforce any flops of their prospects (Julio Rodríguez and George Kirby has outshined all potential, while Jarred Kelenic has essentially disappeared). Reloads are not just about graduating prospects; it's about building with those who don't need time to figure out their success. In another world, Donaldson was traded for prospects rather than big leaguers, and you could imagine Buxton, Polanco, and even Arraez packing their bags for other ballparks. Watching multiple seasons of poor performance in the hope of a good team down the road is no one's idea of fun, so the fact that the Twins pushed this year remains a blessing. But in retrospect, their approach in the reload feels odd. The Twins did increase their salary by 20% this season, but in the end, they were perhaps not in the place for the reload that wins championships. What was missing from the Twins reload? Sound off in the comments.

Last winter's lockout may not have been all bad for baseball because one new aspect of the collective bargaining agreement is a change to MLB's Draft. Recently, the team with baseball's worst record received the first overall pick and the highest pick in each subsequent round. For many reasons, tanking became a common practice by many organizations looking to rebuild a franchise. The Houston Astros may be the most famous example, as they lost over 100 games in three consecutive seasons before eventually rebuilding into an American League powerhouse. Starting in 2023, the first six picks in each year's draft will be assigned through a draft lottery. All 18 teams that fail to qualify for the postseason will have a chance to move into the top six picks. Odds for each team receiving the number one selection are assigned in reverse order of regular season winning percentage. If a team doesn't receive a lottery selection, they will pick in reverse order of winning percentage from the previous season. The odds of receiving the draft's top pick are as follows: Worst record: 16.5% 2nd-worst record: 16.5% 3rd-worst record: 16.5% 4th: 13.25% 5th: 10% 6th: 7.5% 7th: 5.5% 8th: 3.9% 9th: 2.7% 10th: 1.8% 11th: 1.4% 12th: 1.1% 13th: 0.90% 14th: 0.76% 15th: 0.62% 16th: 0.48% 17th: 0.36% 18th: 0.23% Adding a lottery helps to deter tanking, but other rules were added to deter tanking even further. Teams that receive revenue sharing can't receive a top-six pick for more than two consecutive seasons. On the opposite side, clubs that pay revenue sharing can't get a lottery pick more than one year in a row. Organizations are significantly helped by adding talent at the top of the draft, and Minnesota's system has dropped according to national rankings. The Twins' top two prospects, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, were both top-8 picks in the first round of their respective draft. Lewis looked fantastic in his first taste of the big leagues, and Lee's already seen his stock rise since joining the Twins organization. The more times the Twins can get a top-10 pick, the better their chances of adding impact talent to a farm system that needs a boost. Entering play on Monday, the Twins have a .500 record which translates to baseball's 15th worst record. Minnesota would have a 0.62% chance of earning the first overall pick if the season ended today. Minnesota trails Boston by two games for the 14th spot and San Francisco by 3.5 games for the 13th worst record. Gaining ground on these teams helps increase Minnesota's odds, but it's only a small jump for teams that have been in contention. If you'd like to simulate MLB's draft lottery, Tankathon has updated its site to include a simulation tool for the lottery. My first lottery scored the Twins the third overall pick, but the team never won the top overall pick in over 200 simulations. Minnesota has time to help their odds over the season's final weeks, so it will be interesting to see how the team fares in their first chance at the draft lottery. Do you like MLB's new lottery system? Do you think it will deter teams from tanking in the years ahead? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

TRANSACTIONS Infielder Elliot Soto placed on 7-day concussion IL by St. Paul Pitcher Ronny Henriquez recalled by Minnesota Twins Pitcher Dereck Rodriguez optioned to Triple-A St. Paul SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 3, Louisville 1 Box Score Wrapping up their home series against the Louisville Bats, St. Paul turned to Ariel Jurado for Sunday’s matinee. He was great allowing just a single run (unearned) on two hits and a walk. Jurado punched out three in his six innings of work. After the Bats took a first-inning lead, St. Paul responded when Chris Williams blasted his tenth Triple-A dinger in the bottom of the inning. Then in the third inning, recently-promoted Wander Javier crushed his first Triple-A home run to give St. Paul their first lead of the game. Joining the first career Triple-A homer party, Dalton Shuffield blasted one to right-center field. He was Minnesota’s 10th-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. Brock Stewart turned in a scoreless inning of relief with a strikeout, and Jake Jewell recorded his fifth save while recording six outs, allowing no baserunners, and striking out three. St. Paul goes on the road tomorrow before returning to play their final homestand next week. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 5, Midland 3 Box Score Kody Funderburk was on the bump to close out the regular season for the Wind Surge. They’ll have a day off Monday before starting their postseason against the Tulsa Drillers on Tuesday. Funderburk worked around traffic, but gave up just two runs on four hits while striking out eight in four innings of work. After getting behind in the third inning, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. put the Wind Surge on top when he blasted a two-run homer. Keirsey Jr.’s seventh of the season brought in Leobaldo Cabrera and Wichita found themselves in the run column. Wichita allowed Midland to even things in the 4th inning, but immediately took back the lead in the fifth inning. Anthony Prato lifted a sacrifice fly to score Will Holland, and then Jair Camargo jacked a two-run blast to bring in Brooks Lee. A late hit by Midland brought in another run, but Wichita held on to win their final game of the regular season TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Ariel Jurado (St. Paul) - 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K Hitter of the Day – Chris Williams (St. Paul) - 2-4, R, RBI, HR(10) PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #2 - Brooks Lee (Wichita) - 3-5, R, K #9 - Matt Wallner (Minnesota) - 2-3, K MONDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Indianapolis (5:35PM CST) - TBD Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Sunday’s games! It sure is exciting to have all four Twins full-season affiliates back and playing.

Box Score SP: Joe Ryan: 7 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (95 pitches, 64 strikes (67.4%) Home Runs: Jake Cave (5) Top 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (0.559), Carlos Correa (0.087), Luis Arraez (0.078) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Joe Ryan Does it Again, Well, Not Quite That, but… Earlier in the week, Twins starter Joe Ryan threw seven no-hit innings against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. While disappointed, it was easy to understand why he was removed after the seventh inning, and it was said often. His next start would be his biggest start of the season. Well, that may or may not still be true - based on the Twins losing the first three games of this series, and being seven games back coming into the day - it was a very important game for the Twins. Saturday was a long day that ended in a double-header sweep at the hands of the Guardians. The Twins had lost eight straight games to Cleveland in key September games. The Twins needed a big outing from Ryan, and he gave it to the Twins. After Saturday, it was important for Ryan to start out well. He had a one-two-three first inning that included a strikeout of Twins Killer Amed Rosario and a Jose Ramirez pop-out. He got two groundouts and a strikeout in the second inning, which does mean that he had nine straight no-hit innings. He walked a guy in the third inning, but no hits again. The fourth inning was again perfect, including a ground out by Rosario and a strikeout of Ramirez. His no-hit streak ended with one out in the bottom of the fifth frame when Tyler Freeman singled. He gave up two more hits and walked two batters, but he even recorded two outs in the eighth inning. After a Myles Straw single, lefty Jovani Moran came on and got Andrew Gimenez to fly out to end the inning and officially close the book on Joe Ryan’s fantastic outing. Defense Comes Through Any great pitching performance is likely to include some help from his defense. In the fifth inning, there were runners on first and second with just one out, but Austin Hedges grounded into a double play. Then in the sixth inning, Straw led off with a double before Gimenez was hit by a pitch. Runners on first and second and nobody out. Amed Rosario stepped to the plate and grounded into a double play. Straw remained at third with Jose Ramirez to bat. The perennial MVP candidate lined a shot to deep center field, but Gilberto Celestino got a great jump and was able to run it down on a full sprint to the warning track to end the threat and maintain a 1-0 lead. But that catch always reminds me of another great Celestino catch, and why not show that one again… Josh Naylor walked to lead off the seventh inning, but with one out, Richie Palacios grounded into an inning-ending double play. Captain Cave… Man! Jake Cave has had a couple of tough years the last two seasons with the Twins, at least offensively. Prior to that, he was a very solid fourth outfielder, but with the Twins injuries the last couple of seasons, he has been forced into more action than was intended, including a lot of ABs against southpaws. Last year, he missed significant time with a fractured back. Removed from the 40-man roster in the offseason, Cave spent most of this season at Triple-A St. Paul. He played great, getting on-base pretty much every game. In 85 games, he hit 273/.370/.509 (.879) with 20 doubles, seven triples and 14 home runs. As impressive, he continued to put up numbers as he watched player after player get called up to the Twins before he was. In fact, he was about the eighth outfielder on the depth chart when he was finally called back up. And, since then, more injuries have meant that he’s again played more than was planned. Now, I’m not here to say that he’s been great. I’m not saying they should bring him back. I’m just saying that he’s filled in admirably and does not deserve the online hate that he often gets. On Sunday afternoon, he gave the Twins their 1-0 lead in the second inning when he hit a solo homer. It was his fifth homer since joining the Twins and his second big home run in this Cleveland series. One general observation from watching him play with the Saints and in his return to the Twins is that he is staying down on the ball and doing a much better job driving the ball to the opposite field, as he did today. He has played solid defense wherever he’s been, and been happy with any opportunities he gets. And no one can ever question his effort. All Rise for Arraez Jovani Moran got the final out of the 8th inning to maintain a 1-0 lead for the Twins, but that isn’t exactly a comfortable lead. A little insurance sure would have been nice! The first two batters in the top of the ninth inning got out, but then Celestino walked. It was followed by a single from Mark Contreras (who had come in an inning earlier as a defensive replacement for Matt Wallner, who had two hits in the game). Nick Gordon then pinch hit for Jermaine Palacios, and he waAll-Starlked to load the bases. That set the stage for All Star Luis Arraez, and he came through with yet another big hit for the Twins. He lined a solid single up the middle to score two runs and give the Twins a 3-0 lead. In addition, Carlos Correa continued his red-hot September. With three hits on Sunday, he had his seventh multi-hit game in the month. Sanchez Helps Duran Jhoan Duran has been, arguably, the most dominant reliever in baseball for much of the second half, if not all year. Obviously, Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase is in that conversation as well. However, on Sunday, he didn’t display the same kind of control and command as we have seen from him throughout the season. He got the leadoff man (Rosario) out, but then he walked Jose Ramirez, and not intentionally. He started Josh Naylor off with a fastball for a ball. At that point, just four of Duran’s 11 pitches were strikes. Personal opinion and observation… With a 1-0 count, Gary Sanchez called three straight slow(ish) sliders (the upper-80s one that drops more than the other one) and Naylor missed all three for a strikeout. Sanchez continued to call mostly breaking balls and struck out Oscar Gonzalez on the same pitch. Gary Sanchez is not a good defensive catcher. That’s probably putting it fairly nicely. The difference between Sanchez and Ryan Jeffers is very noticeable both by the eye test and by statistical measures. However, have to give credit where credit is due, Sanchez deserves credit for having Duran mix it up. With his fastball command lost in this game, Sanchez recognized it and helped Duran by calling another of his pitches, and fortunately that pitch was on. In the end, he threw 17 pitches, so he ended the game with six straight strikes to end the game with two strikeouts. Pre-Game Transaction Following Saturday’s lengthy double-header, the Twins wanted to make sure they had a long-relief option. Dereck Rodriguez was terrific in his 3 2/3 innings in that role in Saturday’s late game. Unfortunately, for him, that meant that he was optioned back to St. Paul. Ronny Henriquez was set to start on Sunday afternoon for the Saints. Instead, he traveled to Cleveland and was activated shortly before the Twins game started. Veteran Ariel Jurado made the start for the Saints in his place. Henriquez came to the Twins in the Mitch Garver trade to Texas. He turned 22 years old in mid-June, and has a 3-4 record with a 5.66 ERA with the Saints. The hard-throwing Dominican has made 14 starts and come out of the bullpen ten times. While his overall numbers don’t look great, he has been much better of late. Over his past five outings, he is 1-0 with a save. In 21 innings, he has just four walks to go with 24 strikeouts. He has given up just one or two runs in four of his past five appearances. On September 7th, he gave up two runs on one hit and one walk. In five innings, he struck out nine batters. On September 13th, he came out of the bullpen and recorded a four-inning save. He gave up one run on two hits. He walked none and struck out three. In short, if he doesn’t hurt himself with walks, he can be very effective and has some really sharp, nasty stuff. Texas had already placed him on the 40-man roster, so the Twins didn’t need to make an additional 40-man roster move. What’s Next? The Twins had hoped to take at least four (if not five) games in this five-game series. On Monday afternoon, they’ll send RHP Sonny Gray (8-4, 2.83 ERA) to the mound and attempt to win a second game in a row, and in the series. The game will start at 12:05 central time and air on Bally Sports North. Cleveland will counter with RHP Cal Quantrill (12-5, 3.51 ERA). Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Moran 40 0 0 0 15 5 60 Jax 0 0 18 22 13 0 53 Duran 0 0 19 16 0 17 52 Sanchez 0 0 0 0 49 0 49 Fulmer 0 0 21 11 17 0 49 López 0 17 0 0 32 0 49 Thielbar 0 12 12 15 0 0 39 Pagán 0 0 0 0 31 0 31 Henriquez 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TRANSACTIONS INF Brooks Lee promoted to Wichita C Dillon Datum placed on development list (Wichita) INF Wander Javier promoted to St. Paul INF Jake Rucker promoted to St. Paul C Roy Morales activated from IL (St. Paul) OF Matt Wallner contract selected by Minnesota RHP Louie Varland recalled by Minnesota (29th man) RHP Drew Strotman designated for assignment RHP Trevor Megill placed on COVID-IL list RHP Dereck Rodriguez contract selected from St. Paul. Saints Sentinel St. Paul 4, Louisville 3 Box Score Randy Dobnak: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K HR: Jake Rucker (1) Multi-hit games: Jake Rucker (2-for-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI), Dalton Shuffield (2-for-3) St. Paul won on a walk-off Saturday. The new guys made bold impressions; Jake Rucker announced his presence with a two-run homer, while Wander Javier singled in a run in the 5th inning. With a runner on third in the 9th, Rucker connected with a fly-ball sent deep enough to score the winning run. Randy Dobnak—making his first start since his recent DFA—was erratic, walking three batters in a rust-filled outing. The sinkerballer still struck out four and didn’t allow a run—perhaps proving he still has something in the tank—but the Twins will likely desire to see more command in future starts. Trevor Larnach started in left field and played seven innings. Mike Siani—the Bats’ centerfielder and lead-off man—is the team’s best prospect; he homered and singled in five at-bats. Longtime major-leaguer, Stephen Piscotty, hit 6th for the Bats and DH’d. Wind Surge Wisdom Game One: Wichita 3, Midland 4 Box Score Cody Laweryson: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K HR: Alex Isola (10) Multi-hit games: Alex Isola (2-for-4, HR, 2 R, RBI) Wichita lost the first game of their doubleheader on Saturday. Cody Laweryson pitched effectively—although not dominantly—in his five innings of work, striking out five batters while allowing two runs. His Wichita ERA sits at 1.06. Alex Isola spearheaded the offensive performance; the catcher homered and singled, netting two runs in an otherwise dry day for Wind Surge batters. Anthony Prato’s 2nd inning double was the only other extra-base hit in the game. The issue? Wichita grounded into three double plays in the game; Yunior Severino accounted for two of them. Tyler Soderstrom is Midland’s top prospect according to MLB.com. The first baseman singled twice in three at-bats. Game Two: Wichita 1, Midland 9 Box Score Osiris German: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K HR: None Multi-hit games: None Wichita lost a clunker in game two on Saturday. Midland sandwiched a one-run 4th inning with four-run frames before and afterward, ensuring that Wichita would face an uphill battle in their attempt to win; Hunter McMahon and Michael Boyle walked away with battered ERAs. The lone offensive bright spot came when Austin Martin doubled home a run in the 6th inning, but—fitting for a game like this—Midland threw him out trying to stretch the play to a triple. Brooks Lee went hitless with a strikeout in three at-bats during his AA debut. Soderstrom improved off his first game, homering and driving in three to cement his prospect status. Mussel Matters Fort Myers 1, Dunedin 3 Box Score Jordan Carr: 2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Tanner Schobel (2-for-4, RBI) Fort Myers lost on Saturday, ending their playoff run in the opening round. All arms were on deck; Fort Myers called upon four pitchers to help lead them, and their combined effort was impressive. Andrew Morris—a 2022 draft pick—lead the way with a trio of scoreless innings, holding the Blue Jays at bay during the crucial switch from the middle innings to the late frames. The staff allowed a high hit total—11, to be precise—but only three runs. The Achilles heel proved to be the offense, as the bats mustered just four hits in the match; Tanner Schobel alone accounted for half of them. Without an extra-base hit, the team could plate only a single run, forcing the pitchers to be perfect, which they were not. The Mighty Mussels’ season is now over. Josh Kasevich and Cade Doughty are Dunedin’s top prospects according to MLB.com; Doughty singled twice and both hitters nabbed an RBI. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Randy Dobnak Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Jake Rucker PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #2 - Brooks Lee (Wichita) - 0-3, K #4 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 1-6, 2B, RBI #7 - Noah Miller (Ft. Myers) - 0-4 #9 - Matt Wallner (Minnesota) - 1-3, HR, R, RBI, K (Major League debut) #12 - Louie Varland (Minnesota) - 5 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K #14 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 1-5, BB, K #15 - Blayne Enlow (Wichita) - 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K #17 - Cole Sands (St. Paul) - 2 ⅔ IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K #18 - Tanner Schobel (Ft. Myers) - 2-for-4, RBI #20 - Kala’i Rosario (Ft. Myers) - 1-4, K SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Louisville @ St. Paul (12:07 PM) - RHP Ronny Henriquez Wichita @ Midland (2:00 PM) - LHP Kody Funderburk

Coming into the season, off of a long lockout, the Minnesota Twins were not seen as favorites. Even after signing a superstar in Carlos Correa, the questions about pitching remained. Yes, Sonny Gray was acquired, but Kenta Maeda was expected to be out most of the year, and a young duo in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were expected to carry the load. Bullpen questions remained, and only Joe Smith was brought in to answer them. After a mediocre first month, Rocco Baldelli had his guys clicking through May. Maybe the one period of relative health throughout the whole season, Minnesota’s manager orchestrated an 18-12 record. It’s been .500 or worse each month since then, and despite the initial expectations, it’s hard to suggest they weren’t raised after Derek Falvey and Thad Levine provided reinforcements at the deadline. Whether Minnesota claws back and makes the postseason or not, the manager has plenty to sort through this season. Baldelli has now managed more than 500 games for Minnesota and has accumulated a winning record. His win percentage is .533, well above Ron Gardenhire’s .484, Paul Molitor’s .471, or Tom Kelly’s .478. The Twins have won the division twice during his four-year tenure, and they should be seen as a candidate to do so again in 2023. It’s not fair to chalk 2022 up as a wash entirely because of injuries. Baldelli has consistently operated with half of his deck, but there’s been ample opportunity to provide better results. It’s probably worth wondering how things would have gone if Minnesota had seen even a slightly better outcome in terms of the guys they’ve lost to injury. It’s also not fair to suggest Baldelli has failed given the hurdles he’s had to clear. Ultimately a front office wants a manager to be their representative of process in the clubhouse. I think it’s safe to say that Baldelli is in lockstep with his bosses. It’s also more than evident that Baldelli gets along with his players, and has their respect as well. Both of those realities are integral when deciding to keep someone in the position. Unlike Molitor before him, it seems that Baldelli is able to effectively communicate with the guys on the field, and is able to get buy-in when wanting players to try new things. If the Twins were to change course, it probably would have a ripple effect throughout the clubhouse, and that sort of shakeup may not be beneficial given the youth expected to produce in 2023 and beyond. Consistency among leadership can be viewed as a positive, and Baldelli has already connected with so many that will take on larger roles in the years ahead. Should Minnesota make a move, and I think there's an opportunity for them to do so, it will come throughout the coaching staff as a whole. Maybe there's opportunity to shore up baserunning or generate a secondary voice in the clubhouse. Pete Maki has been fine in Wes Johnson’s position, but a more established pitching coach makes sense as well. At times throughout this season, it’s seemed the clubhouse needed a more vocal leader to beg for accountability or change. While that’s not Baldelli’s demeanor and isn’t really that of Correa or Byron Buxton, it could be that of a performance coach or someone tabbed with the background solely to rise to the occasion. We’ll see changes this offseason, there will be more than a few on the coaching staff, but I think it’s safe to say the front office should and will retain their manager.