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2020 was just . . . inconceivable.

I remember watching him last year at the plate and wondering why he could look pretty good some games and then become the proverbial 97 pound weakling the next. This explains that. It would be great if the Twins could get him back to the 2019 form - decent speed and power with an .800+ OPS in the Twins lineup gives them a lot more depth and options from 1-9.

I see Buxton as a "bet on myself" type. It seems impossible to me that the FO would offer a contract sufficiently lucrative, in view of the greater than normal risks, to entice him to commit long-term in exchange for being set for life.

Wait. I have just been informed that this article was Satire. ZOMG! This is the greatest article on Twins Daily ever! Please extend my subscription 1000 years, payable in advance! The writing is sublime! The nuances are so... so... nuanced! I am literally not worthy to write this praise, and I have already deleted it, then typed it again, and deleted it, and finally this! RandBalls Stu is a stu-pendous human being whose boots I would gladly lick clean until holes wore through my tongue, a man who is so totally and utterly wonderful that I would rather be sealed in a pit of my own filth than dare post in the same thread! And yet, here I am, stealing from Monty Python in my own abject loss for words! Thank you, kind sir, for breathing the same oxygen as the rest of us, that we might have some minuscule chance of one day inhaling a single atom that was ever in your bloodstream!

If, his ankle is healed I expect Polanco to have an amazing year. * in the past his lack of range and inaccurate arm didn't play that well at shortstop. But at second base his underhand throwing style will actually be an asset to help him quickly turn double plays. Physics dictates that the shorter throw will make him more accurate especially with someone long at first base like Sano. * When healthy Polanco drives the ball by taking powerful swings but those take a toll on his ankle. When he misses he often falls back out of the batting box and limps a bit. So, he will have an amazing season if his ankle can withstand the stress he puts on it. I say his ankle holds up this season but long term, I just don't know.

To me this is the best move the Twins has done in recent history. Polanco became an all star at SS because of his bat and because of his bat many fans wanted him to stay there. But this move will be easier for for him to stay healthy and accomplish his full potential as an all star, gold glove and even as a MVP in 2019 he was projected.

3 guarantees in life: Death, taxes, and Max Kepler breakout articles every year on TD.

It is Spring Training, but the clips serve as a reminder of exactly how good Joe Mauer was at 1B. Each of those plays was totally routine without any effort displayed when Mauer was at the bag. This is not a dig at Sano, but a reminder of how talented and valuable Mauer was to the Twins.

The Twins will need to make some difficult decisions in the next couple of years deciding who they can afford to keep, or trade to get some value before they leave. I think Buxton will be in the latter category. His skill set that makes him so dangerous right now (speed, defensive chops) likely won't continue into his 30's, and the bat has never been good enough to increase his value.

This is the worst article on Twins Daily ever! Please cancel my subscription, and refund all membership fees dating back to 2012! The article was penned by a hack writer who wouldn't know how to avoid a trite cliche or mix of metaphors if it bit him in the butt! A remedial English 101 student would churn out better insights than this! The author should be optioned to a website one minor-league classification down, IF THERE WERE ONE! There are two ways of disliking baseball; one way is to dislike it, the other is to read RandBalls Stu!

Phew. Spring is the time for dreaming, but those Zips confidence levels look like the narrow range you'd assign to a veteran player, not a guy who hasn't really proven yet that he can hit a major league yakker in the strike zone yet lay off the breaking stuff that's in the dirt. A projection that says it's hard to fathom him hitting less than .279 right out of the gate is... hard to fathom. I'll be happy if he establishes that he belongs in the major leagues, and go from there.

That's not good enough from a corner outfielder, no matter how good the defense. I think a change would be brewing if he performed at that rate for the first half of the season.

If you told me that my dad was the basis of this article, I'd believe it without question or doubt!

Wasn't Hansel Robles one of the male supermodels in Zoolander?

LOVE the Princess Bride comparisons. Yeah, you could see swinging LH-handed last year something just wasn't right with Polanco. He was stepping in the bucket so badly that now, it makes perfect sense he was looking for a more comfortable way to baby that ankle---and it wreaked holy havoc on his swing. I think he's primed for a big year too.

Since the AAA season opening has now been set back to May, I wonder how that will affect the Twins' decision regarding service time for Alex?

NOT going to freak out about Robles at this point. Just a veteran getting stretched out and working on a few things. We should all know this by now. Deliberately not going to debate AK at this point. His future is BRIGHT! Frankly, tired of talking about him. Can't we just let things play out? I don't care it was some B.S. appearance in a ST game, Padulo will NEVER forget the time he got to be on base. KUDOS to Rocco for that!

Most prospects do... and I don't think Griffey hit around .600 OPS his first few months at A+. Celestino's bat has a long ways to go to be major league ready.

IMO just throw out 2020 and forget about it. Expect a great season from Kepler.

Looking back at 2019 (because 2020 stats are of questionable substance) the top 3 offensive teams were the Astros / Twins & Yankees. Their L vs R handed top producers with 200+ ABs is as follows. The Astros top 5 were RH. Coming in 6th was Michael Brantley. They had 3 others with a wRC+ above 100. They are all RHed. Among the Yankees top 9 in wRC+ (included Encanacion w/197 ABs) 8 of 9 were RH. The Twins had 3 players that really stood out in wRC+. Cruz at 163, Garver at 155, and Sano at 137. Of course, they are all RH. The Twins did have a good mix among the rest of the contributors. Arraez was next followed by Kepler then Polanco. Cave and Buxton had above average production coming in at 113 and 111. The twins also had 5 players with a league average wRC+. Rosario with a wRC+ of 103 was 9th on the team by this measure. Adrianza - 102 Schoop - 100 Castro - 103 Cron 101 It does not appear that LH balance is essential to a strong offense.

Byron Buxton is the Twins’ most entertaining, high-upside player. He’s slated to become a free agent after the 2022 season. What would a contract extension to keep him around beyond that year look like? We do have some relevant precedents to consider.Buxton, 27, is as tough a player to compare to any other as can be found in the modern game. He has all of the individual tools to be one of the game’s dozen best players, but has never assembled and demonstrated them all in conjunction over a full season. Moreover, and relatedly, he’s suffered numerous injuries, which have both slowed his development and made him an impossible player upon whom to rely on an everyday basis. The tantalizing upside of Buxton isn’t something for which the Twins can afford to pay — not because they don’t have enough money to do so, or because he’d be too unwilling to give it up, but because the odds that he will fully realize it are far too long. Any extension for Buxton has to be built around the player he has been to this point in his career, with the understanding that he might not have yet reached his peak and that extending him beyond his term of team control involves the team acknowledging its faith in him and investing in some measure of that upside. Outfielders who attain four-plus years of big-league service rarely sign extensions to take them past their organic free-agent period. Over the last decade, only 16 such players have signed multiyear deals, according to MLB Trade Rumors’s Extension Tracker. Of those, all but a small handful were two-year deals that gave the team cost certainty and the player insurance against a down year, but which didn’t extend the term of team control. Two exceptions offer us a glimpse of a possible Buxton deal’s structure. In March 2012, the Royals signed left fielder Alex Gordon to an extension covering four seasons, plus a player option for 2016. The deal guaranteed Gordon as much as $50 million, if he exercised the option, or $37.5 million, if he opted for free agency after 2015. (He did so, and re-signed with the team for $72 million over four years.) Gordon and the Royals had previously agreed to a one-year deal for 2012 at just under $4.8 million, but the new deal paid him $6 million for that season, with salary increases in each subsequent year. Like Buxton, Gordon was a former second overall pick who took an unusually long time to establish himself as a good player in the big leagues. It was only in the 2011 season, just prior to signing the extension, that he emerged as a full-fledged star. He was considerably better than Buxton in that platform season, with a very broad base of skills (excellent defense, albeit in left field; power; speed; and plate discipline). However, he was also a year older, and got nearly 700 plate appearances in the year that so impressed his team. Buxton had any such opportunity stolen from him in 2020, not only by continued injury trouble, but by the pandemic. Gordon’s similar prospect pedigree and obvious potential make him a fair comp for Buxton, but that deal was so long ago (and the apparent certitude of his future production so much higher) that it’s an imperfect template for a Buxton extension. Our other precedent is much more recent, and shares Buxton’s profile more closely: an extremely athletic, very young, tooled-up center fielder, but with red flags attached to their scouting report when it comes to both plate approach and durability. During the rush of extensions signed in the spring of 2019, the Blue Jays elected to lock up their incumbent center fielder, Randal Grichuk. Although not a Buxton-caliber defender in center, Grichuk had acquitted himself as a semi-regular there, and provided plus defense whenever slid to an outfield corner. In 2018, his first season with the Jays, he had set career highs with 58 extra-base hits and 1.9 WARP, despite not even playing enough to qualify for the batting title. He was 26 during that campaign, and 27 when he signed his deal, as Buxton would be if he signed an extension this spring. Grichuk signed a five-year deal guaranteeing him $52 million. It replaced a one-year deal worth $5 million, and provided him with an immediate raise to $7 million, plus signing bonuses paid out mostly in 2019 and 2020. He would have made $12 million in 2020, had the full season been played, but that was the highest-salaried season of the contract. In each of the next three years, he will make $9.3 million. In 2019, Grichuk delivered 31 home runs, but given his strikeout-to-walk ratio and the way balls flew out of big-league parks that year, that wasn’t an especially impressive figure. He has been worth just 0.6 total WARP since the start of 2019, thanks in part to defensive collapse. At this point, his deal is viewed as moderately bad money, but given the structure of the contract, he’s not a huge burden on the Jays, and he will probably still deliver some value as a corner outfielder and down-lineup power bat over the next season or two. Again, Buxton’s speed and defensive chops give him a higher floor than Grichuk has. Then again, his approach is as hacktastic as Grichuk’s, and his injury track record is impossible to ignore. That’s why he and his agents at Jet Sports Management would probably be open to an extension like Grichuk’s. The Twins might even be able to get him to agree to a deal more like Gordon’s, with four seasons and more modest salary guarantees but a player option for his age-31 season, especially if they’re willing to slightly boost his 2021 salary of $5.1 million, the way each of those deals did. Consider one more relevant precedent, in the news within the last 48 hours: Jackie Bradley, Jr. Like Buxton, Bradley spent his 20s as a brilliant defensive center fielder with obvious offensive tools, but never consistently produced at an above-average level at the plate. Upon reaching free agency (and on the eve of his 31st birthday), Bradley was stranded on the open market, having to sign for two years and $24 million three weeks after spring training began. That’s what awaits Buxton if he doesn’t make good on his potential within the next two seasons; he would and should pounce on a handsome offer to avoid that downside. The only question is whether the Twins would be willing to make such an offer. There’s a strong case to be made for doing so. Again, consider the Bradley signing, by the Brewers. He joins an outfield that already featured three established, highly-paid veterans, in Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Avisaíl García. Even without the designated hitter spot into which to stick one of those four, the Brewers wanted Bradley, to balance that corps and cover for its weaknesses. Bradley complements Cain and García, who both hit right-handed, and whose bodies and ages suggest a lack of defensive value in the coming season. He also insures the team against further injury trouble for any of the three incumbents, all of whom have had those issues recently. Keeping Buxton around would similarly balance the Twins’ prospective outfield of the future, currently projected to lean to the left (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Max Kepler). He wouldn’t block the potential emergence of Gilberto Celestino, because Celestino could and would step in when Buxton deals with injuries or prolonged offensive slumps, as well as spelling the steadier corner outfielders. Given everything Buxton can do on the diamond, and the potential for a true superstar turn, the Twins should be willing to risk carrying him as a semi-regular making an eight-figure salary into the middle of the decade. Buxton should be eager to accept that small infringement on his earning potential, given the security and upside he would gain in the process. MORE FROM MATTHEW Max Kepler Has to Get Aggressive EarlyWhich Pitch Should Kenta Maeda Add in 2021?Alex Kirilloff, and the Truth About Scott Boras and Contract ExtensionsA Good Comp for Jhoan Duran and His Splinker Click here to view the article

While it wasn’t a two-touchdown beatdown, the Twins dropped their third consecutive spring training loss on Thursday. Still, there were moments of sunshine for the club on a busy day across the league.Defensive miscues and stranded baserunners plagued the Twins Thursday afternoon as the ball club dropped a 5-2 contest to Tampa Bay. Even though both teams recorded three errors, the Twins’ share just happened to occur accordingly with Rays’ runners in scoring position. In addition, Minnesota left a total of 12 men on base, including nine in scoring position. FINAL: Rays 5, Twins 2 (7 innings) Box Score | Baseball Savant Twins Takeaways Mountains and Valley’s of Pitching The Twins saw both bright and dark spots on the pitching spot on Thursday afternoon at the Fort. Ace Kenta Maeda made his 2021 debut and was nothing short of stellar. The righty was perfect, tossing two scoreless innings with zero hits and three strikeouts. It will be interesting to see if King Kenta’s stupendous 2020 season translates to a full 162-game 2021 season. Nonetheless, Maeda started 2021 out with a bang and there’s nothing to indicate that his dominance is stopping soon. On the other hand, Hansel Robles had a rough outing in his second spring training appearance. The 30-year-old gave up three runs on four hits in the third innings of the game. The heat-hurler has yet to strike out a batter in his young career with the Twins. However, not all of the blame can be placed on Robles, as the last of his three runs was due to a throwing error by Ryan Jeffers in which nobody covered second base on a stolen base attempt. Still, the new Twin has been south of impressive and hopefully, he will be able to hit his stride down the road in Fort Myers. Young Alex Highly-touted Twins prospect (if we can still call him that) Alex Kirilloff did not disappoint in his third spring training game of the season. Kirilloff smacked two hits on Thursday, included a double to right field in the second inning (to Red Wing, Minn. native Ryan Bolt). The Plum, Pa. native has a greater chance to start the year on the grass of Target Field given the recent announcement that minor league play has been suspended a month. Today’s performance doesn’t hurt that cause, to say the least. Getting the Call Up With the bases loaded and Keon Broxton at the plate with a chance to tie the game, Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli made an interesting yet delightful move. Second base occupant Alex Kirilloff was removed from the game for pinch runner Frankie Padulo, one of the Twins’ advanced scouts. Nothing came to fruition, as Broxton grounded out to end the game. Yet the move was a fun reminder of how unique baseball can be. Padulo played college ball at Cornell and fulfilled the role with perfection. The Los Alamitos, Calif. native made sure his jersey was tucked in, got a solid secondary lead, and didn’t get picked off. Not a bad MLB debut! Bradley is a career .239/.321/.412 hitter who had a stellar 2020 season. Brewers’ skipper Craig Counsel stated that Lorenzo Cain will remain the club’s CF. Yet there’s no doubt that the addition of Bradley Jr. as a corner outfielder will beef up the Brew Crew as they look to knock the Cardinals off the NL Central pedestal. SEE ALSO What if Alex Kirilloff is THE One? Max Kepler Has to Get Aggressive Early Celestino Looking to Impress this Spring, Debut this Summer(?) Click here to view the article

Yea, but Buxton isn't just fast. He's FAST. Even is he slows down, he's still gonna be one of the fastest players in the MLB. He's a tantalizing player and I wouldn't hate giving him a 5 yr/ 50 million dollar deal. Best case is a 5+ WAR player on a hell of a deal and worst case is an overpaid fourth outfielder who can field and steal bases better then any other OF on your team.

FORT MYERS - Jorge Polanco knows something you don’t know.Every thrust is countered by a parry. For every style change, there is an answer. The Man in Black is winning this duel, and so there is no point in not admitting it. “You are better than I am,” concedes Inigo Montoya. “Then why are you smiling,” asks the Man in Black, quizzically. “Because I know something you don’t know,” replies Montoya, slyly. “I am not left-handed.” You knew something was wrong with Jorge Polanco. Why was he swinging with only his arms? Why was he trying to slap the ball the other way? Where was the guy who hit 22 home runs the year before? Now he’s Ben Revere – with less power? Something was, indeed, wrong. The right ankle on which he had surgery following the 2019 season hadn’t healed, or at least the surgery had not taken care of the problem that slowed him over the latter half of the season. “After the first surgery, I did my rehab stuff and we got into the season and I felt, right away, during the season, that I wasn't feeling good on my ankle in games,” Polanco revealed last week. “I knew it, and when I went to see the doctor again a couple of months before the season was over, he said they'd require a second surgery." A couple months before the season was over? Uh, the 2020 season was only two months long. Meaning Polanco knew for most of the season that he would require surgery. Until then, he would have to deal with it impacting one very specific aspect of his game. “It didn't feel good, hitting left-handed”, Polanco says. “I think that was one of my problems last year - that I couldn't get good at-bats hitting left-handed. But this year, it's feeling pretty good." Polanco is a switch-hitter, but like Inigo Montoya in The Princess Bride, he has a dominant side at the plate. Unlike Inigo Montoya, it’s his left side: Download attachment: Polanco's Splits.PNG It’s not been close. From 2017-2019, Polanco’s OPS averaged 150 points higher on the left than the right. Better batting average, better patience, and a boatload more power. But last year, while you focused on overall numbers that scared you into thinking his early performance in 2019 was a fluke, there was a positive trend. Polanco actually hit better right-handed then he did the year before. In fact, you see a pretty clear trend in Polanco’s OPS over his career on both sides of the plate: it keeps going up. except for the injury-marred at-bats from the left side last year. That overall trend makes further sense because Polanco enters the season as a 27-year-old. He’s on the right side of the aging curve. You might think it’s always a convenient narrative to blame an unproductive year on an injury. You’re right, but his manager has also noticed a difference. “His right-handed swing felt fine. His left-handed swing did not”, says Twins manager Rocco Baldelli about Polanco last year. And Baldelli also notices a difference in camp this year, too. “Right now we don't have to worry about any of that.” But let’s step out of the fairy tale for a moment. Polanco’s first half of 2019 was certainly a bit surprising, and some regression could be expected. However, the data supports a compelling narrative: that Polanco is a player trending upwards who was anklecapped (Is that a word? We’re going with it.) by an injury that affected 75% of his at-bats in a shortened season. Of course, there could be another surprise still to come. You’ll recall that the Man in Black revealed a little later that he was also not left-handed, defeated Montoya, and continued his quest to save Princess Buttercup from the inconceivably ruthless Vizinni. Still, the underestimated Montoya, after preparing for 20 years, ultimately had his day. Polanco may not get his revenge against the six-fingered man, but maybe he’ll rebound from a injured 2020 to once again be a productive major leaguer, as you dare to hope. Or maybe he’ll be much more than that - as you wish. Don’t rule out him living happily ever after. Click here to view the article

Get it done! Then get Berrios done!

Yikes two errors on him yesterday. Does not inspire confidence in him out in the field.

I'm not worried about his hitting! From the little I saw from the game yesterday, he needs to figure out how to make a throw from 2nd. It doesn't help that Sano has issues catching and scooping a throw.

I think he’s in for a good year. I’m not sure we’ll ever see the home run production we did in 2019, but it’s not really needed. He’s a key piece to this offense. If you’re in the bottom of the ninth with runners on and need a base hit, not sure there’s anyone else on the club (other than maybe Arraez) that I’d want at the plate - when he’s healthy.

I bet on Crualdsano!

That's what I assume too. Current is still valid for 2 years.

The bullpen has been awful! I've been saying this for months!

We all realize this is a guy who barely made A+ and didn’t do much there. He’s likely two years from the bigs if he makes it at all.

Agreed, I never take stock in spring training numbers. When I was younger I used too, but after seeing so many do well in spring only to fall flat on face in April, and vice versa.

If Kiriloff is a .300 hitter with 30-HR power playing 1B...he's Freddie Freeman. I'd take that in a heartbeat. I also wonder, with the AAA season start being pushed back a month how that will affect the Twins handling of AK. If they wait to bring him up, it will be JUNE. They can't afford to not put the BEST team they can on the field right off the bat with the White Sox having loaded up. This may mean Kiriloff breaks camp with the Big League club.

I know this guy!

The Twins were rough around the edges in a lot of ways this afternoon, but here's a look at Jorge Polanco's day at second base. It's a work in progress, of course.

You are absolutely correct that there have been a number of superstars who got to the ML level with less than 1,000 ABS. I would not be shocked if he got some playing time at the MLB level this year much like Polanco did for a few games. However, if you are suggesting it's reasonable to expect the same path for a guy drafted 1/1 who became a 1st ballot hall of famer and a 22 yo that has never been on a top 100 list and has a total of 33 ABs above low A , you are probably reAAAAAAAAly reaching.

I liked seeing AK hit that double today against Tampa Bay! Such a smooth swing.

Because he is not Grifffey, Acuna or Sota. While some are ready earlier, most are better served gaining experience in the minors.

I tend to agree. The power is there and so is the sweet swing. I call a mulligan first a lot of guys concerning 2020

If you are trying to blame either the Twins or Simmons, you clearly only read the headline and skipped the article.

I think that is very much more realistic. Had there been a season in 2020, he would have started in High-A and maybe moved up to AA at the end of the year. There's a chance he starts this year in AA, but he could go to High-A for a little while too, if needed. I think his big-league opportunity for 2021 is a Buxton injury, just a 10-day variety where they don't want to add anyone (or subtract anyone) from the 40-man roster. He can play defense and bat ninth. But yeah, mid-2022 is his much more realistic timeline.

I prefer Arraez over Kepler for several reasons. But the primary reason is I would rather have the first batter make the pitcher throw a bunch of pitches right out of the gate than a one-swing lead-off appearance even if it sometimes results in a 1-0 lead. Let the rest of the team see what the pitcher has.

I've always liked Celestino and have high hopes for him. I expect he'll be called up this year, I'm surprised that I haven't heard any criticism about his few games at high A and his high leg kick.

Yeah he didn't appear that interested his first time out. Lots of fairly straight stuff right down the middle. The surprising thing to me though was the absolute rock solid contact that was made. Yeah I know it is his first time out this spring but getting hit that hard in general puts a little fear in your heart even when it is only spring training. Speaking of down the middle despite his three walks every time Sparkman got ahead he seemed to throw it straight down the middle as well. I didn't see a lot of movement on his stuff either. Unless he has another gear in there I don't see him helping the Twins this year. Shepard looked better to me, and was to a degree but he also seemed to lack a true out pitch. It didn't look like he had enough deception to trip guys up. Granted Rocco gave both of those guys chances against Boston's better hitters but they really, really struggled as Boston managed solid contact on those two as well as Colome. I know it is early spring but Sparkman and Shepard aren't going to get many chances so they need to shine when they get the chance. Felt bad for both of them. It was fun to watch Hamilton but he wasn't quite as efficient as I thought he might be. Still he looks like he has the pitches to possibly be a callup at some point this season. Rooker and Garlick are really battling for that last outfield spot. Both have looked good early this spring. Looks like Garlick will most definitely stay on the 40 man now as the way he is playing there is no way he passes through waivers especially since Tampa would have a shot to grab him. Nice to have some righty outfielders with thump just wish they were a tad better defensively.

The window for multiple championships is wide open for years. The last decade of painful losses should finally be behind us!

Judging by his OBP last year, I don't think he is yet.

I think the answer will be, it depends. I expect a far more fluid lineup from day to day. When Arraez is in the lineup, he is a logical choice. Polanco, who has a career OBP of .335 and OBP above .340 during his last two full seasons could find time there. Kepler will undoubtedly see time there as well. Even Garver, if he returns to 2019ish form, could get a shot in lead off against lefties. If the name of the game these days is flexibility, then I expect it will extend to the lead off spot.

He looks better at the plate than I thought he might. If the offense is there they could certainly call him up this year. I sure hope he is ready soon as he seems like best centerfield prospect that we have. I hope Buxton stays healthy but if not it is nice to know there are options.