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I wondered the same a few years ago when some posters here were complaining that we were not signing the most expensive International prospects. It made me wonder what evidence there was that it was a good strategy to sign 16 y/o players to huge bonuses. I wondered if it made more sense to spread it out. So, I took a list of the highest signing bonuses of all time and compiled the results. The success stories were few and far between. Sano is among the most productive top $ signings. The vast majority never made it to MLB baseball or were pedestrian at best. I thought I posted the results here but perhaps my memory is off. At any rate, when we have a $6M pool to work with we can sign a $2.2M guy and have plenty to spread around. However, the failure ratio of these really high bonus guys is so high that we should not be upset if our team does more spreading it around then signing "quality" as some have put it. "Quality" where quality is defined as becoming a well above average MLB player, is just to hard to assess at 16 years of age.

Truth is that about half of the Twins everyday lineup are International Players. Currently includes Sano, Arraez, Polanco and Kepler. Last year would have included Cruz for five of nine. So this is as important as the regular draft.

Yeah, it's still a crap shoot, but that same year Vlad Guerrerro Jr also signed for 3.9M. Vlad was MLB.com's #7 international prospect while Javier was #12. Interestingly Gilbert Celestino was the #11 prospect but he only got 2.5M. Also in the top 30 were Juan Soto at #25 who signed for 1.5m and Fernando Tatis Jr at #30 who signed for 700K. While 2015 was a banner year, and the rankings, money and evaluations are never going to be perfect, it's probably still in the Twins best interest to grab some of the top guys, even if they aren't THE top guys.

Thanks for this information, MLR. Just look at the Twins. Their biggest signing by far was Wander Javier at $4M. Yes, he may still work out, but considering how long ago it would not be unrealistic that he would already be with the Twins if he were going to become a superstar. Then there is Luis Arraez, who memory serves was signed for $48K after first being told the Twins didn't have any more money left. Polanco and Kepler have both worked out very well and if memory serves were signed for something close to $800K. Personally, really like to see them getting three or four guys in the $750K-$2M range, then adding another dozen for $25K-$75K.

Can someone just spoil it for Derek so he gets all pissed and starts buying all the free agents he can? Angry shopping is a thing, right?

Wishlist 1. Trade for Trevor Story. 2. Trade for Joe Musgrove. 3. Find 2 or 3 more of cheap Matt Wisler/Ryne Harper types with one unhittable pitch to pad the bullpen till July when a bigger bullpen move can be made.

If I remember correctly Sano was a SS when we signed him. It's likely the best athletes and best fielders are SS at this age. Lots of them end up at 2B or 3B.

It is a thing! Ask my wife!

Wonder why the Twins aren't expected to sign any of the top 5 players? They are tied with a few teams with the top money, why would you not get one of those players?

Always interesting.... Wish they would make them wait until they were 18 and combine with the minor league draft.... that way all the teams would have an equal shot at the players....

Time for them to put their money where their mouth is. We are in danger of being lapped by the Sox if we stand pat. The window is about as open as can be. Jump through it.

The Twins have Jorge Polanco at SS. In 2019 he was an all star. Now all of Twins fandom wants him at utility and hope for the team to sign another SS. I am not sure why. Our number one prospect remains Royce Lewis who is still listed as a SS who should be ready by the end of the year at least. So why do we want to demote Polanco and block Lewis? This is reasoning that does not work for me. Then we have Wander Javier who came to us in the same international draft that produced Vladimir Guerrero, jr. and Yordan Alvarez. To say that he is behind them on the development level is an understatement. I am still not sure why he is rated so high as a prospect. He has had a hamstring injury during his 2016 debut, a torn labrum costing him all of 2018 and a strained quad keeping him from making his full-season debut in 2019. Then he came in and looked lost for 300 at bats. And MLB.com still has him listed at number nine. Above him on the mlb.com site is Keoni Cavaco who is given great grades for athleticism, which is fine in the Olympics, but batting and fielding count in baseball. I am not sold on him. He was a fast riser in HS according to his notes. Another prospect who does not make my list. At 17 is Nick Gordon. He seems to be on a slippery slope to a forgotten prospect, but I hope he will find a way to get to the majors someday. He just isn’t going to make the team as a starter. Will Holland is next on the prospect list at 19. Notes about him say that he was doing great at Auburn until his Junior year where he bombed and slipped to fifth round. Then he came to rookie ball and still bombed. Not looking good. Today the Twins made an big international signing – Danny De Andrade who is 16. He could be projected to arrive when Lewis runs out of arbitration and signs elsewhere. He is big, potential middle of the order project (typically that means not staying at SS). At 16 he is a project. I know what my grandsons are like at that age – I would not sign them for $2.2 million and I love them. If he makes it he will probably replace Donaldson and not Lewis. Finally the second signing is Fredy LaFlor who is already projected in the mlb.com writeup to shift to second or CF. He said to be a high energy top of the lineup prospect. So there is the Twins SS list. I would like to see us develop one of them into the next great SS rather than sign one who is already down the road of his career and will be overpaid. How do you see these names playing out? The Athletic summary of international signings did not include the Twins - disappointing. https://theathletic.com/2326602/2021/01/16/mlb-international-signing-period-day-1/?source=weeklyemail For those of us who do not know who they are it is important to have outside opinions.

The team’s quiet off-season may soon become less so, but not before the team’s leadership finishes what it started.With the Chicago White Sox making a big splash this winter, Twins fans are waiting for the defending AL Central champions to make a move. Any move. Minnesota’s President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has one response for them. “I have two episodes left of The Mandalorian and so does (General Manager Thad) Levine. Once we have those cleared out I expect us to be major players in the free agent market and explore every opportunity to improve our ballclub.” Falvey was asked how they reacted to Chicago’s acquisition of closer Liam Hendriks and starting pitcher Lance Lynn. “(The Mandalorian creator) Jon Favreau has done an impeccable job of building on the existing Star Wars universe while making the show accessible to everyone,” said Falvey. “I mean, a baby Yoda? Come on, that’s just brilliant. Chicago is a great young team that’s only getting better. We have our work cut out for us.” With former AL Central frontrunner Cleveland rebuilding to save money, Falvey addressed the issue that was on everyone’s mind. “Yes, I’m aware the final episode of Season 2 contains a major surprise,” said Falvey. “I’ve managed not to spoil it for myself so far, but I have to be very careful about the media I’m consuming. Cleveland still has enough young talent to be dangerous, don’t overlook them.” On the issue of Nelson Cruz, Falvey was noncommittal. “The only new sequel that was worth a damn was (Rian Johnson’s) The Last Jedi,” said Falvey. “Best Star Wars movie since Empire. The best parts of The Mandalorian can go toe-to-toe with them. Nelson has been everything you can ask for in a player, we’ll see what the future holds.” As for what positions the Twins were looking to address via free agency or trade, Falvey said the team was keeping all options open. “The Rise of Skywalker was full-on trash, just fan service with no emotional stakes,” said Falvey. “Keep (director J.J.) Abrams away from the future projects. Nice lens flares, J.J. Cool, good job. We have a great core here and we hope to add to it without sacrificing the future.” Image license here. Click here to view the article

Isn't the opposite actually true? A draft makes it so that only the teams at the top have a chance to sign the "top players." It's the main reason for drafts as it gives the worst teams the first shot at the "best" players if they can scout correctly. This auction format gives teams more options on how they want to play things. As some on here have said it gives teams a choice between quantity and quality. If you're convinced the number 1 guy is going to be a star throw your whole allotment of money at him. Or you can spread it out and try to sign as many as possible and give yourself a bunch of lottery tickets. I actually wish the draft would go to this type of format and give teams more avenues to be strategic and fill their organizations with talent how they see fit.

in a short season Roberts was exposed as a flawed hitter and he is headed into his sophomore jinx season. Buxton is due for a healthy season where his natural talent takes over. Moncado is a long long way from producing like Donaldson. Almost anyone would choose Twins catching over WS catching. Eaton is a forgetable player wheras Kepler has carried the Twins for weeks at a time Your analysis is as flawed in the WS direction as mine is for the Twins. Last year Abreau was better than Sano, but 2021 is a new year. Madrigal cannot compete with Arraez at bat, although he does appear to be the superior in the field.

Good point-and this would be nice in many ways. The only counter argument I have is that baseball is many of these gentlemen's chance of leaving a pretty rough life in some pretty rough areas...

Ted, your headline is promising but where's the beef? Yes, they have 4 roster spots open, but where does that point to significant moves this month or next. As a daily reader of MLBTR and The Athletic, I have seen absolutely nothing to indicate this FO is planning on any major moves, i.e., ones that move the needle in increasing our playoff chances, except the one totally unsubstantiated rumor from Passan and allusions by Rosenthal that Twins looking at bringing in another SS. This FO is great at looking, not so hot at doing! The Donaldson signing was the first and only significant move in Falvine's 4 years in office. They should be applauded for that one, as well as some under-the-radar moves like trading for Maeda and Odo, that paid off bigtime. This offseason seems to revolve around whether they will resign Cruz. No matter what your opinion of this is, do you think a Cruz signing makes us an improved WS contender in 2021? Until I see something more impactful than signing a middling RP like Robles, color me very sceptical of this FO's ability to make a significant offseason move. It's nice to engage in wishful thinking, but realistically(until shown differently) that's all this offseason has been for Twins fans.

This is the Way.

Getting fewer chairs in the game of musical chairs. Hope Twins make a move soon.

Who needs stars or Star Wars when we can pick up players you have never heard of and put them in a trance under Obi Wes Johnson?

Drat, I had high hopes we'd take a flyer on Wood.

"Cruz. Ten mil, one year, no option. I can sign you warm, or I can sign you cold. This is the way. I have spoken."

I highly doubt it. I think they'll stay true to form and make a couple small money moves to bolster their bullpen and maybe add another cheap starter. I don't see any big splashes happening.

So ESPN and Jeff Passan just published an article saying the White Sox are the team to beat now in the American League. He feels that way now due to them signing Hendricks. Now Hendricks is a very good reliever and might be the best closer in all of baseball. But how much better did he actually make them? If the White Sox had a bullpen like the Phillies last year and still only last out to us by 1 game I might buy all this hype but they didn’t. Alex Colomé pitched great as a closer last year and that is who Hendricks is replacing. Last year Colomé pitched in 21 games in the regular season and the White Sox went 18-3 in those games with Colomé saving 12 of those wins and having no losses. Of the 3 team losses, 2 were in extra innings where Colomé pitched a shutout ninth to get the games into extras. How much better could anyone have pitched in the closer position for the White Sox last year? They couldn’t have because Colomé was not responsible for the losing runs scored in any of the 21 games he pitched in. I know that Hendricks peripheral numbers were all better than Colomé but at the end of the day it is still about wins and losses. How much can Hendricks really improve them when Colomé was basically perfect last year from a win loss standpoint? Are the White Sox a definite challenger for the AL Central? Absolutely they are. Are they the favorite for the AL? Maybe, but not because they just signed the best closer in the baseball. They already received “perfect” production from the closer position last season and all they can do is go down from there.

Per Baseball America, the #MNwins have signed nine players already today... https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-21-mlb-international-signings-tracker/#Twins

International signings are always hopeful. Hoping to find a prospects that we missed out on the others venues. Hoping to find a great SS that can stick and some potential starters. Rather also quality over quantity

They're a good team, but the only thing Moncado has on Donaldson is health. Moncado has had exactly one good year as a hitter, and if he doesn't repeat it this year it'll be a classic fluke year. He's not a significant defensive player, either. Tim Anderson has a flashy BA, but Polanco has just as much ability in getting on base, so if he's our starting SS he can compete. in 2019, when Anderson was grabbing praise and a batting title, Polanco was the better player. Yes, on D too. Luis Robert has a great future...but Buxton is still more talented, and despite the injuries last season was more productive. Basically the only thing the ChiSox lineup in the field really has on the Twins as currently constituted is health...and it's really hard to project health.

Great article about this in the Strib this morning. Perhaps someone can link to it. Rob Antony talked about their internal argument of going quality some years (like paying Wander Javier or Miguel Sano $4M and $3.15M, respectively), versus going the quantity approach. Sounds like they are going quantity this year with plans to sign a couple dozen players. Article talks about four shortstops they are expected to sign led by De Andrade...who another source ranks #9. One question that I have was the confusing comment that the $6.4M they have to spend covers the next eleven months. If this is the draft intended to have begun last July 2, shouldn't it end in June with a new signing period and pool beginning as of July 2, 2021? edit...Read another article that explains these date changes will be in effect for the calendar years 2021 and 2022. Article points out that perhaps there will be an International draft by then.

I really don't know if the aberration that was 2020 projects to anything useful. The differences in any of the composite player indexes for the most part seem rather small

Let’s forget for a second about WAR, launch angle, and exit velocity. Push your thoughts of FIP, xFIP, and BABIP to the side, and remember why we all got into baseball in the first place. It’s fun. So, I’ve compiled a short list of potential future Twins, and rated how fun they’d be in Minnesota from Boring to Very Fun. Enjoy. Javier Báez – Very Fun The Twins are in the market for a new shortstop and the Cubs seem to be in fire sale mode, so a move that sends Báez to Minnesota might be in both clubs’ best interests. And, simply put, Báez maxes out the fun meter. He’s a still relatively young, swagger-filled middle infielder that does amazing things in the field and sports a good amount of pop in his bat. Forget about his mediocre 2020 stats for a second – watching Báez play is fun because he has the look and the confidence of the best player on the field even if he really isn’t anymore. He’s been on the cover of The Show, something nobody else on this list can claim. And, I’ve kind of buried the lede here – the coolest part about El Mago (cool nickname too) are his tags. Trevor Story – Kinda Fun Trevor Story, another shortstop trade possibility, gets a Kinda Fun designation because, though he may be the best available option at short, he doesn’t boast the star power and flair of Báez and others. Don’t get me wrong – Story is a star; he’s great in the field and at the plate, but looking at his stats on baseball reference is almost more exciting that watching him play. It doesn’t help that he’s been marooned off in Colorado, but Story just doesn’t have that “it factor” or special skill that sets him above the other great shortstops in the league, at least in terms of fun-ness. He does have a pretty mean bat flip, but there’s no crazy tag compilation out there on YouTube, for example. He’ll be a very welcome addition to the Twins if he comes, but a middle-of-the-road rating on the fun meter feels right. Marcus Semien – Boring Marcus Semien is probably the best shortstop available on the free agency market, but there’s a reason a lot of Twins fans would rather give up young talent in a Báez or Story trade than simply sign the former Oakland shortstop. Signing Semien would just give off the feeling that they needed a shortstop and signed a shortstop, not the shortstop that anybody really wants. Semien has been a top-tier player in the past, but a pretty dismal 2020 makes him feel like a more expensive Jorge Polanco rather than a Polanco replacement, and spending on a player that does little to change the status quo is the opposite of fun. Perhaps if I allowed myself to make a joke about his last name, I could bump him up a few levels, but I’m not going to do that so he’s stays at Boring. Nelson Cruz – Fun Perhaps the Twins’ biggest question of the offseason is whether to bring Nelson Cruz back or not and, while our opinions may vary widely on whether it’s wise to spend on a 40-year-old DH, that’s not what I’m here to talk about. Nelson Cruz is fun. With Cruz, there’s no “shiny new car” feeling because he’s been in Minnesota for two years, but there’s a reason he’s been your dad’s favorite Twins player those two years. He’s been a star in the league for the better part of a decade and we love when stars come to Minnesota, especially when they lead the team to an MLB record for home runs. Even better, Cruz’s locker room personality is the driving force behind the “Bomba Squad” moniker and the team identity that’s the Twins last few years on of the most fun teams in the league. Marcell Ozuna – Fun Should the Twins decide against bringing back Cruz, Marcell Ozuna could serve as a long-term high-end option at DH. Though losing Cruz might be sad for many Twins fans, they’d be getting no downgrade in the fun department with Ozuna. He’s a big, muscular dude who wears a bright chartreuse arm sleeve and hits bombs. Massive bombs. In large quantities. Last year, Ozuna led the league in home runs and runs batted in and, though there are certainly more intelligent stats, big homer and RBI guys are very fun to have in the lineup. Advanced stats fans should like him too, as his exit velocity numbers and hard hit percentage were among the best in the league last year. The only thing keeping Ozuna from rising into the Very Fun tier is the possibility of a regression that could make him a Sanó-esque strikeout frustration. Trevor Bauer – Very Fun Now, the Twins odds acquiring the free agent ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner aren’t that great, but he falls into the Very Fun category, so it’s fun to imagine. Bauer is and always has been controversial, so he may not be every Twins fan’s cup of tea, but that’s exactly why I would love to have him so much. The guy who talks the most and angers the most people is exactly the type of guy you want on your team, as long as he’s playing well. And fresh off a Cy Young year, he’s certainly doing that. Above all else though, Bauer has a curious and innovative baseball mind that, as a fan, is fun to see on your favorite team. His appreciation for the craft of pitching is something that every Twins fan ought to be able to appreciate, even if some don’t like his attitude. Also – He’s a fun follow on YouTube. Sonny Gray – Not That Fun Gray, who was Bauer’s teammate last year in Cincinnati, would also be a good addition to the Twins rotation, but he’s not nearly as exciting. With a career ERA in the threes and a WHIP in the 1.2 range, Minnesota fans would probably be happy to have him, but we also managed to make Carl Pavano seem exciting. The fact is that, since he burst into the bigs as a rookie, nobody has ever called you excitedly to say “Hey, did you see what Sonny Gray did last night?!?!” unless they were a Yankees fan complaining about his poor performance in pinstripes. Gray seems like a fun guy to know and have in the locker room, but that doesn’t make him a fun player to watch. If he signs with Minnesota, he’ll be a mid-rotation out-getter more than a jersey-seller. Trevor Rosenthal – Kinda Fun The Twins haven’t had a true flamethrower in the bullpen (other than Brusdar Graterol’s 10 games) in a long while, but that’s what they would get by bringing in free agent reliever Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal looked on the brink of exiting the league not too long ago but was dominant down the stretch for the Padres last year, and he regularly touched triple-digit velocity. A dominant hard-throwing reliever is one of most exciting players to watch and have on your team, so Rosenthal, should he sign, would be a very entertaining player to have around. However, he’s only a year removed from being an out of control , and those guys are torturous to watch. I’ll hedge my bets and put him at Kinda Fun.

We are good. The White Sox have had a nice offseason but there are still 80% of the FA still needing homes. We have great internal options so throwing money around would be stupid at this point. Lots of options for relief pitching ... we will snag a few ... Starters are a bit more of an issue... I would guess we make a trade for a quality SP or find a nice retread to fill the 4/5 spot. We have 2 top of the rotation type pitchers right around the corner... one will make his debut for sure. Don't panic. We are STILL the team to beat. White Sox are right there but still are on the outside looking in.

La Tortuga’s Dive - Check out Willians Astudillo making a nice catch in left field down in the Venezuelan Winter League. And the turtle did NOT stuck on his back when he rolled over... Well done Willians!

Agreed. Get a starting SS, and we have Polanco/Arraez and soon Lewis to start at 2nd and be z as utility infielder and outfielder.

I'd vote for Rolen; he was a truly great player, despite the injuries. He was a better player than Ken Boyer (who I do think is a fringe Hall candidate who hasn't gotten the consideration he deserves). Rolen was a better hitter, even in the context of their eras and arguably a better defender too. Rolen wasn't just a good defender, he was a great one, the standard by which everyone else was measured by during his time. The only knock against Rolen is he played at the same time as Adrian Beltre, who was significantly healthier. Rolen was the better player IMHO (thought not by all that much), but Beltre's ability to stay on the field gave him much more overall value. Health matters, but Rolen was so good when he was on the field that he's worth induction. And it's not like Rolen didn't have a long and productive career: he played 17 seasons, he played over 2000 games. Elite glove man, excellent hitter, just a great player. 3B is underrepresented as it is, we should leave out a great 3B like Rolen. I've come around on Billy Wagner in recent years. Relief pitching is a position in baseball, we've enshrined relievers before, so why not one of the best in Wagner? It's not really his fault he pitched in the era of "the closer pitches the 9th" and he was absolutely dominant. The WHIP, the ERA+...he was destructive out there. He basically had one bad year once he became a closer...one! He was still dominant at age 38 in his last season. He was better than Lee Smith. He was probably better than Trevor Hoffman. I'm in on Wags. Andruw Jones is a tough one for me...he was so good in Atlanta. A spectacularly great CF. From age 20-30 he's a no-doubt Hall of Famer...and then just evaporated. The last 5 years of his career are just kind of sad. 1 ok year in Chicago surrounded by 4 awful ones as he bounced from team to team. But those early years...I think he did enough to ignore how fast he collapsed. The peak is too good to ignore, and it's not like he was only great for 3 years; he deserved every all-star game he made and probably should have been tapped for 2-3 more. And that defense was so ridiculous. I wouldn't vote for Omar regardless of the allegations against him; he was a wonderful player to watch, one of the most beautiful players to watch on defense...but a rotten hitter and his elegance on D almost certainly is overrating his good (and often great) play, but he's not Ozzie Smith and never was. He played forever but there's a good reason he was only a 3 time all-star. I'm out on Schilling, a great pitcher who I have no interest in giving a Hall of Fame platform to spew vitriol and hatred. He's not being penalized for being "conservative", or even supporting Trump (Mariano Rivera is well-known for his conservative beliefs and support of Trump was elected unanimously, and many other players and hall of famers are similar; baseball is very republican-leaning), it's because he's taken things far beyond anyone else, using his position and platform to spur hatred and violence, with no remorse or understanding, and believes he should be free of consequence for his actions. Some committee can reassess him after he'd dead as far as I'm concerned. We are not required to grant him this honor, despite his skill on the field. I'm still on the "get more distance" train for the steroid guys. There are a lot of good arguments for and against putting them in or keeping them out; we should have them all. But I'd age them off the regular ballot and let a later committee hash it out on these guys as we get further removed from those wild wild west times.

Brad Hand would look good in a Twins uniform.

Cruz is a victim of his own magnificence. A normal 40 year old former MLB star plays amateur ball where reduced skills are the norm. Cruz has been terrific and if he was even 35 the discussions would be totally different. But he isn't and age happens. All of the arguments are well put and it does seem like the internal options are great, but wouldn't it make some sense to see Nelson Cruz again this coming summer. I can even accept if he is injured or suddenly cannot Boom. I'm of the mind to offer $15-17 million for this year with some option that is at the team's discretion and might include a path into coaching. Nelson Cruz is not even the shadow of Harmon Killebrew but letting the Killer go to Kansas City was the single worst mistake in franchise history. The Twins can afford to take a swig of Cruz in '21. Who knows, he may once again forget how old he is and do his little tip-toe jog around the bases enough to keeping us all smiling at the absurdity of it all.

The article limits the options to these two. I would say Cruz. That is because it is for 1 year. We have options to fill similar rolls in our systems. I would not want to clog that with a big deal for Ozuna, who may never live up to contract. His up and down seasons scare me, and even more when his best season was on a short contract season. He really only had 2 outlying seasons of high OPS. You list he had three over .775, and one of those was only .800, not like the over .900 of the other two. The big question, do you think for 18 mil a year for three years worth his expected numbers over what Rooker or Larnach would be expected? It is not always what the player can do for the price, but will the cost difference be worth what they would do compared to likely replacement. Cost of Rooker or Larnach will be for 2 years min 17 mil less, and for third year most likely at least 15 mill less. Can you spend that money each year on say a starting pitcher or another postion? To clarify why I said 3 years is with Cruz to 1 year the 3 years is the difference of the contracts.

It's really hard to compare anyone to Cruz in this context. Cruz was very good until he turned 35 when he became phenomenal. I doubt there has ever been a player that improved their career stats between the age 35-40. Trying to compare Rooker is hard to do. Does anyone remember the scene in Money Ball when Billy Beane explains to the staff they can't think in terms of replacing Giambi with one player. I think that applies here. It's not if we can replace him. Can we build a better team by investing elsewhere?

In his age 24 season (2019), Rooker OPS'd .933 at AAA. In his age 24 season (2004), Cruz OPS'd .989 in A+, and .919 at AA. Based on this, Rooker would appear to be more advanced than Cruz at a similar point in their careers--why would we be so quick to assume Rooker can't possibly come close to Cruz' production? This is not to say I think he well--I am reasonably certain Nelson Cruz will put up better numbers in 2021 than Rooker. Will those numbers be far enough better to offset the extra millions Cruz will earn, and the decreased flexibility the Twins will have to endure?

Rotating internal options is a better option because it gives a chance to rest established players like Sano and Donaldson. It creates more opportunity for younger players who are ready to be called. I don’t want Rooker and Larnach to sit on the bench. It is also more cost effective. I loved the Nelson Cruz years but last year should be the last.

Safely Cruz for me. Ozuna is a good hitter but very likely will never match his 2020 output. Moving forward I expect him to be a ~.280 hitter, ~.330 OBP with 30-35 HR a year. That's only a modest improvement over Eddie Rosario. Ozuna is very poor defensively as well, and it just doesn't make sense to me positionally to commit 4+ years to Ozuna. We'd have to juggle guys around basically each year to make space for Kirilloff/Rooker, enable a potential Sano switch to DH or Donaldson switch to 1B/DH, etc I wouldn't say no to Ozuna, but I don't think he's a very good fit here at all to be honest

Where is the option for the case against both? Rather than spending ten plus million on Cruz or much, much more for the other guy, how about spending $600K on one of the young kids in the system? That would also open up a spot to rotate several of their big bats in the regular lineup thru the DH spot. Seeing that the Twins have pulled their offer to Cruz off the table, got a feeling looking internally is high on their list.

Good write up, but I feel like signing Cruz is a no-brainer. The one position the Twins appear to be fully set at for years to come is DH, so there's no need to sign an expensive long term player there when worst case scenario the spot can serve as a mostly off day for a rotation of sluggers.