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He could be scary good - alas, by reaching his potential at an older age, the Twins may not be able to extend/sign Bux for the future and another team will reap the benefits. I've always worried that Bux would reach his true potential with another team. That said let's enjoy the heck out of it. Even when healthy, his bat was still a question mark. It appears that's no longer the case. If Bux is healthy, he's a good bat to have in the lineup. Particularly love that he struck out 3 times on Monday, but came back to go 3-for-4 the very next day on three singles. That quick rebound was unheard of before.

Byron Buxton is looking like he is turning the corner to the stardom we have awaited/expected.

One thing that I understood is that minor leagers that are not in the 60-man camp cannot be included in trades. If this is so, the buyers won't have much currency to pay. Am I mistaken?

Really nice performance thus far in 2020 by Maeda. Nothing spectacular, just solid, professional pitching.

Sooner or later, there will be conversation, maybe even controversy, about where to hit Buxton in the lineup. He's on the pitches and is showing power. You really going to hit him 9th?

Remember how everyone was like "we shoulda signed Bumgarner! The Maeda trade is terrible!"? Bumgarner has a 9.35 ERA and is throwing 87 mph fastballs.

Early returns on the Maeda trade looks good. No matter what Gratrol is doing we would be in trouble without Maeda. Graterol so far has negative WAR, and two losses. W/L is not a big thing for starters, but for me, it is bigger for relievers because that means they are giving up leads or at least coming in tied and giving up runs. Still very early in trade to call it a win or a loss, but so far so good. In terms of Buxton we have seen this before, he has shown he can get super hot for periods and carry the team. I hope he keeps it up and stays healthy.

There can never be enough of that. Next up four games at home against KC. Time to run up the score and deliver some serious payback.

Average exit velocity probably isn't a good measure because when you dig in you'll see there are two different stories. Overall, yes, he's hitting the ball 89.8 in 2020 and was at 91.8 in 2019. The reason it's not far off this year is because his exit velo on ground balls is much higher this year than last year while the EV on balls in the air is much lower. So the average EV looks similar. Last year when he hit a line drive, it average 98.9 while this year it's averaging 91. So the "good contact" EV is much lower than the "bad contact". So "bad luck" really isn't an answer in this case. I posted this last week on Twitter but it demonstrates where his swing has been deficient so far this year: He was a monster at hitting pitches up last year. Pitchers are still giving him fastballs up that he's just swinging under. You can see how he was coming down at the ball in 2019 but is trying to come up at it this year. This may be just a symptom of minimal reps heading into the season. Feels like he could use some high-spin fastball machine work or doing some of the high tee drills that Nelson Cruz loves. The last thing I'll add is that since the second half of last year, Garver has broadcasted everywhere that he goal is to pull the ball. That's not a bad goal, to be sure. Brian Dozier always said the shortest way out of the park down the left field line. Given that opponents are just throwing stuff away at him, it's likely they are trying to get him off that game. Trueblood touched upon that today too but Garver may have to make that adjustment of being able to drive that outer-third fastball into center-right-center instead of his usual pull mindset. Thanks Derek for the discussion.

4 for his last 10 Three sky is falling articles based on 40 PAs has to be a record.

From my extreme "armchair" perspective, it's not a good idea to be a one-dimensional hitter. Major league pitchers are just too good, when you present them that simple of problem to tackle. Having a Happy Zone is great, but you need a way to punish pitchers who stay away from it, by having a second or even third approach to low-outside pitches or whatever isn't "Happy". Brian Dozier was a good example, being someone who feasted on high-inside pitches, but occasionally would demonstrate a willingness to go the other way and make the pitcher pay with a higher on-base approach. I don't know if Garver is predictable to the same extent Dozier sometimes was, but if Garver is productive only in the Happy Zone then it's a problem.

1/3 thru the season and Kenta Maeda gets my vote as team MVP.

Another excellent start by Maeda. Question, was he running out of gas or were they getting to him the third time thru the order? A bit surprised at seeing Thorpe come in and pleasantly surprised by a solid performance, albeit one in which the Brewers may have lost all interest in the game. Agree with above that Thorpe will likely be moving to St. Paul as they begin activating players later this week. Twins really need to win this series with KC after being embarrassed down there last week.

Here's what I read on Rotoworld today: Looks like Hill is getting close, as I believe Odorizzi started his first game about 5/6 days after he threw a bullpen session.

I think the bullpen games have been a problem in having a rested scheduled bullpen. I would rather see them stack Smeltzer and Stashak and if it does not work you lose one game. Using up nine bullpen innings and losing feels much worse.

I set out in search of a diagnosis with regard to Mitch Garver’s offensive slump – and maybe by extension a suggested cure. But I’m afraid what I found might only be a little more granular explanation of the symptoms. Let's not worry about the math as much as what the numbers are saying.When I dove into this analysis, I expected to find that opposing pitchers were avoiding Garver’s barrel by refusing to throw him fastballs for strikes. What I found was actually less of an answer to my question and more of a gateway to other questions. Garver is getting fastballs at about the same rate as last year, despite punishing the pitch with no mercy in 2019. He’s just whiffing more often, driving his strikeout rate way up against righties and lefties alike, all without the tradeoff of harder or better contact when he does connect. Twins GM Thad Levine told Twins Radio Network over the weekend that the Twins expect that a Garver Breakout is right around the corner. Levine attributed the early season slump – and we should emphasize here, we’re talking about 44 plate appearances entering Wednesday – to better plans of attack and, anecdotally, trailing in the count more often. “We’ve become so sophisticated in our advanced scouting that usually the [opposing] team counter-punches,” Levine told TRN. “The best players continue to evolve and always stay one step ahead of the advanced scouts.” Whereas a year ago, guys like Garver or Luis Arraez would surely show up on the scouting report, they might not have earned as much ink as, say, Nelson Cruz. This year, the league is taking those hitters “extremely seriously,” Levine said. Of all the fastballs he saw last season, Garver only swung through 5.7% of them, according to data from Baseball Savant. Compare that with a 16.5% whiff rate on offspeed pitches and 9.9% on breaking balls. So, again, I expected to see that teams were going away from fastballs and teasing Garver with secondary stuff, especially off the plate, or to steal strikes early in counts. But I didn’t see a big, meaningful difference in the type of pitches he’s getting. Pitchers are, according to FanGraphs, trading a few sliders and curves for changeups, at least until Garver proves dangerous against the slower offspeed pitches. I set out in search of a diagnosis for Garver’s offensive slump – and maybe by extension a suggested cure. But I’m afraid what I found might only be a little more granular explanation of the symptoms. Here’s a quick glance at the location of pitches to Garver from last year vs. this season to date. Download attachment: Garver2019.png Source: FanGraphs.com (support FanGraphs) Download attachment: Garver2020.png Source: FanGraphs.com All this really tells us is that in the early goings of our shortened 2020 season, opposing teams are doing a better job of keeping pitches away from the Happy Zone when Garver's at the plate. That’s one way to try to neutralize a dangerous hitter. More words from Derek Wetmore Check out Derek Wetmore's newsletter on the Minnesota Twins, and consider becoming a member Moving on to Garver’s contact profile is as close to a “takeaway” as this report is going to yield. More work is needed to provide a better explanation of why this is happening – mechanical, game plan or maybe something else. For this section, don’t worry about the math as much as what the numbers are saying. When Garver swung at a pitch in the strike zone during 2019, he hit it 88% of the time, according to Baseball Info Solutions. Few catchers make contact with those pitches more often and, worth noting, we in Minnesota were spoiled for years by Joe Mauer (and, weirdly, A.J. Pierzynski and Kurt Suzuki). Anyway, 88% contact rate on pitches in the zone last year for Garver. This year, that’s down to 78%, or a decrease of 11%. On pitches outside the strike zone, Garver made contact 55% of the time last year and that’s down to 44% this year (a decrease of 20%). And to amplify the swing-miss conundrum, Garver is taking cuts more often, swinging at 63% of pitches in the zone this year, compared with 56% last season. Unfortunately for Minnesota’s Silver Slugger, it doesn’t appear obvious to me that there’s some simple wave of a wand that will lead to more contact and more damage. “He’s just in one of those ruts right now where he seems to be in pitcher’s counts all the time, quite often in 0-2 counts, and so it leaves a hitter a little bit defensive,” Levine said in that interview with TRN. “I think we also have to recognize in the context of the season, we in the front office would never over-value a 30-40 plate appearance stretch for a hitter." “So I think Mitch is a couple games from righting the ship and getting right back out there… We think it’s just a matter of time before he breaks out,” Levine said. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

They should target Taylor Rogers brother Tyler. We are the Twins

Yes, though non-60 man players can be traded as a PTBNL. I have a hard time seeing many, if any trades will happen. At this point only the Pirates seem to be truly out of it, as most teams are a few games out of a playoff spot.

Great article. Thanks, Matt. As adjacent has stated above, I also believe the only players that can be traded must be on the 60-man roster. So unless the Twins want to part with one of their top four prospects that are on that roster, they don't have a lot to trade. For that reason, I expect them to be relatively quiet. Heck the best moves they can make may be to go out and get a couple really good starting pitchers, say Rich Hill and Michael Pineda.

I always think that there is such a fine line between: Passive --> Patient --> Middle Ground --> Aggressive --> Over-Aggressive And it's possible to be all of those things... Last year, Garver was very patient, knowing the strike zone so well. At times this year, he has looked almost Passive... Last year, he was aggressive on his pitches which I really think helped him to a great middle ground. This year, it's been more in the Passive/Patient range... And, again, even that isn't true all the time, can change from at bat to at bat. I' have zero concerns for Garver. He knows the zone well and he won't miss pitches for too long.

That measurement of Sano’s home run is absolutely absurd. There is zero chance that thing was under 475, let alone 450. I’m glad I’m not the only one who sees the managerial malfeasance of batting Garver lead off and Buxton 8th right now. Baldelli has had this pattern, IMO, of overthinking things at times (the bullpen, the lineup, etc.). Take the Joe Maddon approach. But your hottest hitters in prominent lineup spots until they’re not longer your hottest hitters. Simple. It’s not controversial in any way to maximize the number of plate appearances by guys that are in a groove over the course of the year. Could be the difference in a significant amount of runs/wins.

Remember that Buxton was one of the guys not hitting when the Twins started the road trip. Now he''s at .298 with a .944 OPS, just behind Cruz' .948. Now, can Sanó, Garver and Arraez get hot and make us forget their struggling starts? The Twins need Hill or Bailey to plug into the rotation and pitch effectively. Dobnak and Maeda have been outstanding, but the production from everyone else has been spotty, at best. With those two guys and Odorizzi missing multiple starts and probably needing time to ramp up when (and if) they return, the Twins are lucky that they can carry 14-16 pitchers. It will probably be the same for Pineda when he returns in about three weeks.

I think Rocco explained the strategy well. There's a lot of merit to it. My only quibble is if the offense gets back to being a "no deficit is insurmountable" one again - then it makes sense to bring in a good arm when only a couple of runs down, if the bullpen isn't verging on exhaustion. Last night's game was a hopeful sign in that regard, although once again all the scoring occurred early so there isn't evidence of being a late-innings juggernaut.

Mine would go to Cruz, but both Maeda and Dobnak have been elite. Maeda has been untouchable for multiple innings at a time. I'm more than surprised at how well he just knows how to pitch.

By the way, I was a huge fan of the SKOR North Twins show. Great show. The content is now unlistenable without you and Ramie. Zulgad’s constant click-baitey “cool contrarian” act paired with the insufferably condescending Phil Mackey has destroyed what they had going there. Glad to see you land over here. Are you/are you planning to be involved in any more Twins podcasts?

I haven’t looked into much myself, but Gleeman noted on a recent podcast that his underlying numbers suggest some incredible bad luck (a wildly low BABIP with exit velo numbers not far off from last year). I’d prefer Baldelli not bat him lead off against lefties when he’s slugging under .200 (especially with Buxton now OPSing higher than Nelson Cruz on the season).....but I’m not overly concerned long-term. Stick him down in the 7-8 hole and let him work his way out of it.

Nice work. The graphs really say it all - the two black spots merged into one, and their center moved lower and further inside, but still well in the strike zone. Pitching coaches were paying attention, and so far this year the pitchers have good command against him. Our man went three for six (one off Gyorko) today, scoring twice but sadly contributing no RBI. No shortage of confidence from Rocco in sending him out to lead off today after 1-for-4 with 3 SO yesterday's disaster. Now hitting .167/.280/.238 in 50 PAs, just 2 RBI, 1 XBH. Really hope Levine is right and the guy finds himself during this home stand.

Great win, exactly what we needed after a bullpen night from both the offense and Maeda. The offense did what they have done so far (score runs early), but also added on, which is something that they haven't done so far. Maeda is certainly the best Twins starter at the moment, and would venture to bet that he would start game one of the playoffs if they were starting tomorrow. Thorpe looked better, but am guessing was his final outing for now. Going to guess he and Gearrin will be sent to STP with Vargas and Littell activated before Friday's game.

I have no support for the bullpen games - it impacts all the subsequent games. Get some starters from St Paul

Duffey was called up for a doubleheader as the designated "26th man." And because the 26th man is exempt from the 10-day minimum for optional assignments to the minors, the Twins knew they could pitch him in the doubleheader, option him back down the next day (when he wasn't likely to pitch on consecutive days anyway), and then recall him the day after that when he was fresh again. So no worries, I suspect he didn't actually fly to Rochester for just 1 day!

Agreed not worth lamenting Hendricks as it was so long ago and a different staff. I think they did make a mistake in not taking a look at Anderson over others. Hate to say it, but even smart coaches and FO get it wrong sometimes. But then you pick up a Wisler and suddenly have what looks like a power arm middle reliever for nothing.

I’ll admit I was ready to give up on Duffey. I never saw this sort of resurgence coming. I am still confused why Oliver Drake was DFAd after pitching so well for us. It’s no surprise he’s pitched well for the Rays. I also didn’t see Anderson breaking out like he did, but I do remember wanting him to get a shot over the 100% cooked Matt Belisle.

Short a significant injury, I don’t see any reason to start the service clock on any of them. At 12-7, they’d have to go something like 17-24 to not make the playoffs. Beyond that, I’m not sure that seeding is that big of a deal, so the advantage of a win or two isn’t much. None of the guys you’ve named have had any real opportunity to significantly up their game since spring training, other than the maturity that comes with a few more months of physical development. While they may be more successful than Cave, the marginal value of improving your 4th outfielder is about as small as any spot on the roster. While there’s something to be said in player development for being up close and personal with the major leaguers, these guys are probably getting more hands-on time and reps with coaches in St. Paul than they would in Minneapolis. Frankly, if they are able to call Whitefield back up after optioning him to Pensacola, having him available to pinch run for Cruz, Sano, or the catcher when they start on second base in an extra-inning game is probably more likely to make a difference in a crucial game than having Kiriloff, Larnach, or Rooker available as a pinch hitter. I might also see it different if one of them was a clear upgrade over Sano and could serve as a defensive replacement.

wouldn’t it be something if players came here to read about what to do. wait, maybe that’s what happened in 2016.

His trade value is probably up. Get some more pitching!

Then how will he know to relax and hit?

No calls for Buxton to be traded today. Hmmm. As it should be everyday.

You still need roster space on the 40-man in the end. And more than likely, some teams will try salary dumps. I guess the question is "how important overall is a playoff run for a team this season." The ways things are set up, you can be the best 60-game team and you'll be eliminated early in the playoffs from some fluke or just a bad game day.

Pineda’s eventual role will be determined by the performance and health of the rest of the rotation. He was our best starter at times last season so he could slot anywhere from long relief to game one starter.

Yeah, I tend to agree with it, especially as it's played out. As Rocco said, those guys will get plenty of opportunities to protect leads. The next two games, Rogers was used and a couple of the other top four guys were used. in a lead. And, as Doc said, the Twins second tier relievers are pretty good too. Also, while it is still only a 60-game season, teams just can't treat it as if every game is life and death. That is exactly how to burn them out.

First, my understanding is WAR is terrible for pitchers and a better stat for them is wins probability added is better, not sure though. Maybe for starters it is better, but this year starters innings wont be much more than some relievers it would seem. Regardless when comparing Sheffield to Dobnak on start by start. Sheffield gave his team 1 chance to win, his last start. The other two he had a WHIP of 2 giving up 1 hit and walk per inning, and averaging a run per inning giving up 4 runs each start with 3 inning and 4.2 innings. For me, giving your team a chance is more important than if you get a win or a loss. Dobnak has done that. I also find it hard to give rookie of the year to a reliever unless they were unhittable and pitched nearly every day or at least 50% of teams games. I bet it goes to Reoberts barring him falling off completely because his hype will always be in voters minds. Lewis if he can carry it through he will have a chance. Overall it normally goes to hitters because they play every day and even if they slump for a week or two that gets forgotton about, normally with their hot streak being impressive. Pitchers though, even more so this season, have two or three bad starts it will blow up all their numbers. If Dobnak can keep going like he is, he should get the reward.

For me, with all the struggles for all the hitters you need to remember it is still a short period compared to what we normally see. It is not even a month into a season, but nearly 25% of this season. For most of these guys we would say it is still early and give them time they will come around. I am sure we could find some bad 15 game stretches for everyone in their careers. This season just magnifies those 15 game stretches. However, with way Avila is swinging I wonder if there will be much more of a platoon going forward.

This was a game that we can love in all phases. We broke the string of early scores and then nothing. Now let's break the next issue and break lose multiple games in a row.

Very interesting, Cooper. I always like to read good stuff about Dobnak because, well, most of what we have heard the past couple years has been good, very good. I don't understand how WAR is calculated. But when I compare all the traditional stats between Dobnak and Sheffield there is no comparison. Yes, Sheffield has more strike outs but Dobber destroys him in the ERA, Walk and WHIP categories. Yet, their WAR is within a tenth of a point of each other. That raises a big question in my mind of the value of WAR, especially when considering the the role of a pitcher is to keep runners off base (WHIP) and from scoring (ERA).

Yeah, Nick Anderson was arguably the best performing reliever in the minors for 3 years before the Twins traded him. I'd really like to know what coaches and scouts for them saw that they didn't think would translate. He's a grave miss-evaluation for the organization on that end. But that's a good problem, that I'm complaining about them screwing up on a guy like him, because it's a very small issue in the grand scheme. And I am (and was) really happy Nick got traded to someone who gave him a chance, because he more than deserved it.

Without reading all the posts, my take on Duffey is that he is a guy that bought into the fact that he is just a guy that isn't going to be successful as a major league starter. Give Wes Johnson credit for evaluating these guys and stressing that they listen to him and get with the program. There are always gonna be successes and failures. see Reed, Parker, etc...and Duffey, May, Littel. I think Wes Johnson does one hell of a good job.

Anderson wouldn't have been "entrenched" after a 2018 audition, but he most certainly would have stuck around longer than Drake. Drake (age 31) was out of options, so he was going to cost a 25-man spot going forward; Anderson (age 28) would have only cost a 40-man spot.

Ditto. I watched him get lit up in Pawtucket. Couldn't locate the breaking pitch. Got tattooed when he came in with his heater. I was ready to move on. Wes Johnson, or whoever at AAA, found an answer. Just goes to show how close many pitchers are to making it, and why you see these thirty-something guys still giving it a go. Just one "aha" moment away...

The problems with pitchers is very small adjustments can make huge differences either way. You will see one year amazing numbers but every other year nothing. They are so volatile, even mores so for relievers. Hendricks was let go by the old guard, but Anderson was by the new. However, as I have mentioned in trade posts, you need to understand what leads to certain decisions. Sometimes it is public perception. I do not recall the trade when it happened in the off-season and doubt most do sending Anderson away. He was aging, non-top prospect. Most likely he will have a good couple years and bounce around team to team hoping to be close to what he was. Pen guys are very replaceable, that is why there is the shift from paying big money for top end closers because they were over valued by many, the Twins among them. The pen is important, but I will not cry over losing out on a pen guy.

If the Twins feel he is an upgrade I am all for it. However, they know that better than me. I will defer to them who see him in St. Paul working.